2008 results
Vasco de Mello
February 27 th , 2008 Disclaimer
All data contained in this presentation may contain confidential and/or privileged information, and it is exclusively intended for its addressees. Unauthorized copy, reproduction or distribution is strictly prohibited. This presentation is provided “as is” without any express or implied warranty. The information here in are provided for general purposes only and do not constitute professional advice. This presentation may contain forward-looking information and statements that could, ultimately, prove in accurate, due to unexpected risks and uncertainties, such as economic and market conditions in the geographic areas that are or will be major markets for this company, changes in laws and regulations, inflation, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, traffic volumes, or any legal issues against this company that may affect its business. All data referred in this document must be reported to the document’s date. Although every reasonable effort is made to present current and accurate information, Brisa makes no guarantees of any kind. The company declines any responsibility to update, revise or correct any of the information hereby contained. 2008 overview
Very difficult macro conditions…
A historical year - Equity markets down (PSI 20: -50%; motorway operators: -40%) - Steep increase in fuel price (up 30% by July and 11% FY average) - Portuguese GDP did not grow (recession in 4Q08: -2.0% QoQ) Under this environment Brisa fulfilled its goals - Positive toll revenues growth. Total revenues up 6% - Operational Costs growth < 10% - EBITDA margin > 70% Finally a new concession agreement was aproved - 3 extra years - Allowing corporate restructuring New business was added - Brisal was fully open 1 2 - Baixo Tejo and Litoral Oeste concessions were awarded 1 Final award in Jan 09 2 Final award in Feb 09 … but Brisa delivered 3 Equity markets
Stock performance in line Dividend per share
with markets Cents of Euro 31 31 Reuters BRI-LB Bloomberg BRI PL 27 28
2005 2006 2007 2008 Brisa -47% PSI20 -51% Dividend Yield
Year end share price January 2008 December 2008
5.8% th 3.8% 6 largest Portuguese company 3.0% 3.1% 7.1% weight in PSI 20 index
Market cap of €3.0 bn 2005 2006 2007 2008
A 31 cents dividend per share will be maintained 4 2008 Financial Figures 2008 Business Development 2009 Outlook 2008 financial figures
YE08 IFRS figures
Euro million 2007 2008 %
Operating revenues 646.5 686.0 + 6% Toll revenues 575.7 582.6 + 1%
EBITDA 459.5 482.7 + 5% EBITDA margin 71.1% 70.4% - 0.7 pp
EBIT 281.4 276.6 - 2% EBIT margin 43.5% 40.3% - 3.2 pp
EBT 223.0 183.9 -18% Decline impacted Net Profit 259.4 151.8 - 41% by 2007 tax benefit (€89M)
Positive operational performance 6 2008 financial figures
YE08 operating revenues
Euro million 2007 2008 % Tolls 575.7 582.6 +1%
Service areas 11.9 11.6 -3% Lower traffic
* Equipment sales: +€4.4M Motoring 41.1 49.0 +19% Car inspections: +€2.2M
Settlement of the toll collection in Other 17.8 42.9 +141% the Circular Sul de Braga stretch (+€23.9M) TOTAL 646.5 686.0 +6%
* Includes ETC equipment sales
New concession agreement provided extra €24M 7 2008 financial figures
Toll revenues & growth per concession euro million
+0.9% +1.2% 5.7M -0.6M (+ 5.1M) 582.6M (+ 6.9M) +2.0%
-2.0% 14.2M (+ 11.8M) 530.4M (- 11.4M)
+0.3% 32.9M (+ 1.5M) Brisa Atlântico Brisal Northwest Consolidation Total Concession (50% stake) Parkway adjustments 1 extra growth 1Intragroup toll transactions, between Brisa, Atlântico and Brisal Brisa compensated by other concessions 8 2008 financial figures
Brisa concession toll revenue growth
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 FY08 Like-for-like +2.2% -6.6% -6.6% -7.7% -4.9% Easter effect +2.1% -2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Shadow tolls competition -0.3% -0.5% -0.7% -1.0% -0.6% A10 Cannibalization -0.1% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
Brisal Cannibalization -0.0% -1.2% -1.8% -2.9% -1.5% Truck strike -0.0% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%
AADT (organic) Adjusted ADT +0.5% -1.6% -4.1% -3.8% -2.5% Leap year +1.0% +0.0% +0.0% +0.0% +0.3% Mix effect 1 0.0% ++0.4% +0.1% -0.8% -0.2% New stretches +0.5% +0.4% +0.1% +0.0% +0.2% Tariff increase +2.6% +2.6% +2.6% +2.6% +2.6% Total +6.3% -3.2% -3.8% -5.9% -2.0%
1 Includes traffic & tariff increase mix Organic growth was down only 2.5% 9 2008 financial figures
Toll revenues
Revenue per Revenue per motorway class
Class 4 Class 1 NWP – 1% A1 – 41% 11% 68% A17 – 2% Class 3 A15 – 1% A14 – 1% 2% A13 – 2% A12 – 2% Class 2 A10 – 1% 19% A9 - 5% A2 - 17%
A8 -5% A3 - 8% A6 - 4% A4 - 5% A5 - 5% Transaction structure: - Via Verde 60.4% - Manual 39.6% No change on traffic mix – low exposure 10 2008 financial figures
Traffic figures total circulation 7.44 x 10 9 (-4.5%)
Brisa ADT % Impacted by Brisal cannibalization A1 34 198 -7.0% (opened in May 08) A2 16 842 -2.1% A3 17 190 -5.0% Impacted by shadow toll A4 23 818 -6.2% A5 68 341 -0.6% Commuting traffic uphold A6 5 446 -4.5% A9 26 302 -5.6% Impact from macro conditions A10 7 682 +11.7% Ramp up A12 22 302 -0.7% A13 5 109 -0.7% A14 5 473 -6.6% TOTAL 20 335 -4.9%
11 2008 financial figures
Traffic figures
Atlântico ADT % Atlântico shows growth due to induced A8 20 730 +1.2% traffic from fully opened Brisal 9 A15 5 299 -3.6% Total circulation: 0.87 x 10 (+1%) TOTAL 16 421 +0.7%
Brisal ADT % Brisal still on a early stage Traffic ramp up is occurring due to the A17 1 6 387 41.1% network completion (May 2008) TOTAL 6 387 41.1% Total circulation: 0.17 x 10 9
1 2007 network (Last 61km opened in May 2008)
NWP ADT %
Parkway 12 121 -2.9% Tariffs were raised by 25% last April
TOTAL 12 121 -2.9%
Growing above peers 12 2008 financial figures
Consolidated operating costs breakdown
Euro million 2007 2008 % Cost of goods 4.5 6.5 + 45% Equipment acquisition: €2.7M NWP: €2.9M External 89.8 98.7 + 10% Brisal: €2.3M Business development: €3.8M Personnel 86.5 93.3 + 8% Total employees: 2 880 (-15) Other 6.2 4.8 - 25% Cost growth: Like-for-like: €1.5M (+1.7%) Op costs 187.0 203.3 + 9% Lower capitalization: €1.7M (+1.9%) New business: €1.4M (+1.6%) Layoff costs: €1.0M (+1.2%) Dep & prov 178.1 206.2 + 16% Pension fund: €1.3M (+1.5%)
Depreciation of the last stretches built on the A10 of the A10, the A17 (Brisal) & widening works
Opex grew only 1.3% without new business 13 2008 financial figures
Operating cost growth Euro million
+2.3% 8.7%
+1.1% +4.4M +2.1M +16.3M +4.0%
+ 7.3 M
+1.3% + 2.5 M
Brisa Business Brisal Northwest concession development Parkway Total
Opex growth under 9%, impacted by new business 14 2008 financial figures
Operating costs growth Q on Q
Consolidated Brisa Concession 28.4%
12.3% 7.3% 8.7% 6.3% 3.7% 3.2% 1.8% +2.5 M€
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 12M08 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 12M08 -3.7%
-7.4%
Significant cost management effort in 2H08 15 2008 financial figures
Margins per business Consolidated EBITDA margin Brisa concession EBITDA margin
74% 68%76% 76% 75% 75% 71% 75% 70% 69% 67% 76%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 FY08 67%1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 FY08
Consolidated EBIT margin Brisa concession EBIT margin
51% 49% 49% 45% 48% 48%
41% 40% 39% 18%
35%
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 FY09 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 9M08 Strong operational margins 16 2008 financial figures
Financials & net profit Financial expenses breakdown: Brisa €132.6M Euro million 2007 2008 % Atlântico €13.6M Other €2.3M EBIT 281.4 276.6 -2% New business: Brisal €32.7M Net financials (58.4) (92.6) -59% NWP €15.0M Financial income 20.5 19.7 -4% Financial expenses 123.4 196.2 +59% Financial expenses change: Investment income 44.4 83.9 +89% ∆ Debt +€36.7M ∆ Interest rates +€11.5M EBT 223.0 183.9 -18% Lower capitalization +€11.9M Other financials +€12.7M Taxes & Min. 36.4 (32.1) N/A Investment Income: Net profit 259.4 151.8 -41% Sale of 0.94% of Abertis for €89.6M (+ €38.3M) CCR/Brazil: €44.6M (+€1.8M)
Net profit declined impacted by 2007 tax credit (€89M) 17 2008 financial figures
Capex Investment per 2008 Euro million concession Brisa concession 1 106.6 New stretches (net of subsidies) 9.8 Brisa Major repairs 15.1 37% Widening works 61.1 Brisal 14% Other 20.6 Other Brisal (70%) 36.1 1% Atlântico (50%) 1.7 Douro Litoral (55%) 2 137.3 Other (100%) 5.2 Douro Litoral TOTAL 286.9 48%
1 Due to the new concession agreement Brisa accounts an extra intangible asset of €158M (not mentioned above as Capex) 2 Of the total investment €115.7M corresponds to an intangible asset – the awarding fee Investments contained below targets 18 2008 financial figures
Balance sheet
Euro million 2007 2008 % Assets 5 359.0 5 593.8 +4% Non current 4 890.3 5 157.4 +5% Current 274.3 252.6 -8% Deferred tax 194.4 183.8 -6% Equity & min 1 691.3 1 372.7 - 19% Liabilities 3 667.7 4 221.1 +15% M/Long term fin. debt 3 059.1 3 339.6 +9% Short term fin. debt 261.6 474.5 +81% Other 346.7 407.0 +17%
Net debt 3 208 3 674 + 15%
Debt increased due to project finance (non recourse) 19 2008 financial figures
Debt structure Year end
2007 i 2008 i Change Bonds 1 139 1 104 -35 Corporate debt Securitization 397 317 -80 EIB 889 895 +6 Other37 270 +233 Brisa Corporate 2 462 4.90% 2 586 4.40% +124 Brisal 441 6.07% 526 5.87% +85 Project Atlântico (50%) 208 6.26% 198 5.37% -10 finance NWP 210 6.05% 222 5.67% +12 Douro Litoral - - 282 4.57% +282 Total Project Finance 8596.08% 1 228 5.46% 379 Total Debt 3 3215.24% 3 814 4.74% 493
Interest rates are coming down Debt increased due to project finance (non recourse debt) of new concessions YE figures show falling cost of debt 20 2008 financial figures
Debt structure
Breakdown per company Interest rate breakdown
Douro Litoral Euribor w/ cap Inflation linked 7% Atlântico 2% w/ cap 3% 5% NWP 6%
Brisal 14% Floating 42% Brisa 1 Fixed 68% 53% 1 Includes debt from subsidiaries A 1% decrease in interest rates implies a €13M decrease in interest costs
Cost of debt benefiting from floating rate 21 2008 financial figures
Debt structure
Current portfolio – balanced - Fully funded - Long term maturities - Smooth amortization profile Brisa concession – generating cash - Strong financial position - Generating positive free cash flow New projects - selective - Low equity needs and fully financed through non-recourse project finance - Comprehensive risk allocation
Sound financials, no pressure to access the markets 22 2008 financial figures
Key performance indicators Consolidated 2007 2008 Change Includes Net debt 3 208 3 674 +15% debt from Brisal & Net debt / EBITDA 7.0 7.6 +0.6x Douro Gearing 201% 268% +67 p.p. which are Debt average maturity 7.5 7.1 -0.4 yrs in a initial ROE (return on equity) -4.2 p.p. phase, as 15.3% 11.1% well as ROA (return on assets) 4.8% 2.7% -2.1 p.p . CCR, that does not Brisa concession individual accounts consolidate EBITDA 2007 2008 Change Net debt 2 345 2 518 + 7% Net debt / EBITDA 5.5 6.1 +0 .6x
Balanced structure 23 2008 Financial Figures 2008 Business Development 2009 Outlook Corporate restructuring
Group overview
Brisa nt me ree Ag holding sion ces Con
Brisa Brisal Douro Atlântico NWP (…) concession concession concession concession concession
A new & simple corporate structure - Portfolio Management - New O&M unit to serve all concessions
The new Concession Agreement allows Brisa to separate all holding activities from the Brisa concession
Efficiency & optimization of financial structure 25 A growing business base
Brisa concession New junctions Term extended until 2035 (+3 years) New stretches A1 New infrastructures Network extended - New junctions linking the new logistic platforms A1– Castanheira do Ribatejo (1.3 km) A12– Poceirão (1.7 km) - New link between A5 and Grande Lisboa A10 concession (Alcabideche) Northern - New stretch on the A12 linking to the Lisbon A9 logistic platform industrial park of Mitrena - New Link to New Lisbon Airport, given its New Lisbon A13 new location (Alcochete instead of OTA) , Airport with more km (ext. ≈22) and less cost per km A12
New tariffs added Poceirão logistic platform - New tolls for the links A2
- Overall tariff increase of 91.5% of CPI Alto da Guerra (Mitrena) from 2012 onwards instead of 90 % EN10
Extra years, extra kms and extra toll revenues 26 Enlarging the business base
Brisal & Douro
Brisal concession - Fully built and all 92 km opened to traffic since May 2008 - Experiencing ramp-up phase growth
A3 Maia Douro Concession A4 Matosinhos - Fully operational by 2011 Valongo – Total length: 129 km Porto Gondomar – Tolled: 76 km - Operation already started in the 53 Gaia km of the non tolled stretches
- Construction is within plans Espinho
A1 More km in operation 27 Enlarging the business base
Domestic tenders
Tolled Total Out of five awards Brisa Concession Awarded won 2 (Baixo Tejo and km km Soares da Litoral Oeste) Transmontana 14 174 Costa New selective approach and lower risks: Douro Interior 0 245 Ascendi - Minority stakes Baixo Tejo 20 68 Brisa 1 - Higher IRR's Litoral Oeste 19 112 Brisa 2 - Availability & Service payments vs. Toll Baixo Alentejo 72 334 Edifer revenues AE Centro 185 373 Not yet - O&M contract Pinhal Interior 99 537 Not yet
1 Awarded in January 25 th 2009 2 Awarded in February 26 th 2009
Lower risk and higher IRR's 28 Enlarging the business base
Baixo Tejo concession
IC3 Brisa 30% (30 year concession) IC20 IC32
Total extension: 68 km (17 km tolled) IC21
ER377-2 - 33.7 km of new construction IC32 Av. Mar Capex: €289M 50% availability / 50% service fee (linked to total traffic) Construction O&M Litoral Oeste concession
Brisa 15% (30 year concession) Total extension: 112 km (19 km tolled) - 81.7 km of new construction Capex: €350M 75% availability / 25% service fee (linked to total traffic) Lower risk & higher IRR's 29 Enlarging the business base
High Speed Rail (Elos consortium)
Only launched the Poceirão-Caia - 167 km HSR and 92 km CR (40 year concession) Brisa (15%) consortium is the front runner Low equity needs (10%/90%); €1bn net investment - Revenues through availability
Privatization of ANA & New Lisbon Airport (Asterion consortium)
Decision on new location (Alcochete) was taken Bidding process should start this year Brisa consortium well positioned
Brisa with competitive consortium 30 International projects
Ongoing tenders
USA - Florida (Alligator Alley) - 126 km (€1 bn investment); Brisa with CCR and JP Morgan - Shortlisted no. 1 in August, final proposal due this year
Russia (Moscow-Minsk and Moscow-S. Petersburg) - M1 - Moscow-Minsk waiting official decision, due this year (~€600M) - Brisa (28%) w/ Leader (Gazprom group) (43%) & FCC/Alpine (29%)
Turkey (privatization) - Over 1800 km (€4 bn investment); Brisa (33%) w/ Babcock (33%) & Akfen (33%). Major delays should be expected (project should be launched only in mid 2009)
Delays given financial & regulatory issues 31 2008 Financial Figures 2008 Business Development 2009 Outlook 2009 outlook
Difficult macro environment
Traffic under pressure, but benefiting from recent openings EBITDA and cashflow will benefit from tight Opex & Capex control Brisa will be working on corporate restructuring & improvement of its financial structure As in 2008 there will be scope for further business base enlargement with the same selective approach
Maintaining strong cash flow generation 33 2009 outlook
Traffic outlook
Portugal macro assumptions - GDP: -1.6% - Stable fuel prices Flat total traffic Brisa ADT: -2.5% - Strong decline in Q1 because of comparison with last year (no Easter, no leap year, Brisal cannibalization & negative GDP) Brisal ADT: +22% (Circulation: +49%) - Benefiting from ramp up traffic & cannibalization from A1 Atlântico ADT: +2.4% - Benefiting from Brisal's induced traffic & cannibalization from A1
Traffic improvement along the year 34 2009 outlook
Main targets
Positive Toll revenue growth >2.0% - New concessions will compensate Brisa concession
Strong Opex reduction <-4% - Including restructuring costs (+€1.7M)
EBITDA margins will be above 70%
Capex €238M - Brisa Concession in line with previous forecast €89M – Widening € 64M – Resurfacing & others € 25M - Atlântico (50%) €23M - Douro (55%) €126M
Some growth & high efficiency 35 2009 outlook
Business development
Working on Corporate restructuring & improvement of its financial structure - A more clear view by 1H09 - Implementation by YE09 / beginning of 2010
New business - Domestic concession – Shortlist in Pinhal interior Concession – High Speed Rail – New Lisbon Airport
Follow latest development on Government "Electronic License Plate" (SIEV) and its implication on toll collection
Significant value creation opportunities 36 Wrap-up
2008: very difficult year but Brisa performed
2009: another difficult year and again Brisa will perform
Adding value & maintaining strong cashflow generation 37