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Development Impacts of High-Speed Rail: Megalopolis Formation and Implications for Portugal’S Lisbon-Porto High-Speed Rail Link

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Development Impacts of High-Speed Rail: Megalopolis Formation and Implications for Portugal’S Lisbon-Porto High-Speed Rail Link Development Impacts of High-Speed Rail: Megalopolis Formation and Implications for Portugal’s Lisbon-Porto High-Speed Rail Link By Sevara Melibaeva Master of Public Administration, Columbia University, 2005 Master of Business Administration, Tashkent State University of Economics, 2003 Bachelor of Science, Business Administration & Economics, Greensboro College, 1999 Submitted to the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Transportation at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY JUNE 2010 © 2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. Signature of Author Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering May 18, 2010 Certified by Joseph M. Sussman JR East Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Daniele Veneziano Chairman, Departmental Committee for Graduate Students 1 2 Development Impacts of High-Speed Rail: Megalopolis Formation and Implications for Portugal’s Lisbon-Porto High-Speed Rail Link By Sevara Melibaeva Submitted to the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering on May 18, 2010 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Transportation. ABSTRACT High-speed rail (HSR) has been gaining acceptance worldwide with development of rail technology and rising concerns over climate change and congestion in airports and on roads. The implementation of high-speed rail lines also plays an important role in reshaping the travel patterns and activities of people and consequently change the ways cities develop. An interesting indirect implication of HSR is the potential for megalopolis formation created by fusion of multiple cities linked by HSR. An overall consensus is present in the existing theoretical literature as to what development impacts may be from the HSR investment, including the importance of the resulting agglomeration externalities and formation of megalopolises. However, the complexity of the issue leaves the questions about the causal effect of HSR on economic growth open. This thesis studies the existing empirical evidence and experiences of HSR corridors in Japan, France and Germany to explore qualitatively the phenomenon of “megalopolis” formation as a result of a HSR link, and the evidence of economic development effects on urban areas along these corridors. Portugal among other countries is also planning the deployment of a HSR network in the near future as an effort to stimulate the country’s economy and to integrate with the rest of the European Union. The findings and lessons from the case studies are applied to Portugal’s proposed Lisbon-Porto HSR corridor. Several possibilities of future scenarios of megalopolis forms and the associated impacts are discussed and analyzed. As a result of improved accessibility and increased interaction between the cities stimulated by HSR, emergence of a megalopolis is possible in different forms along the planned Lisbon-Porto HSR corridor. The critical factor for the formation of a megalopolis is the increased interaction between the cities driven by newly generated traffic and increase in the number of one-day trips. These new travel patterns within a megalopolis may lead to either creation of new economic growth or redistribution of economic activity. The spatial distribution of growth is non-uniform, which may essentially lead to potential winners and losers from HSR. This research is intended to be of value to policy-makers in the railway industry. Thesis Supervisor: Joseph M. Sussman Title: JR East Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering and Engineering Systems 3 4 Acknowledgements There are many people who inspired me and played an important role in this research as well as my learning and growth throughout the last two years. Foremost, I want to thank my research advisor, Professor Joseph Sussman, for his continuous guidance and invaluable support during the preparation of this thesis. I cannot thank you enough for believing in me and giving me a great opportunity to be part of this excellent institution and exciting research. I am sincerely grateful for the invaluable academic and moral guidance you have provided during my two years. I benefited greatly from your knowledge and experience, and gained a different perspective on how to approach transportation policy issues. To Professor Chris Zegras, Mikel Murga, and Fred Salvucci, thank you for your expertise, opinions and stimulating dialogues during studies and research. Speaking to you was always inspirational and motivating, and I will always remember what I learned from you. I am grateful to the Portuguese Government’s Foundation for International Cooperation in Science, Technology and Higher Education for providing financial support through the MIT- Portugal Program. To Professors Rosário Macário and João Abreu of Instituto Superior Técnico in Lisbon for their advice and expertise. Special thanks to a friend and research colleague Maria Spandou at the Instituto Superior Técnico for your help in finding information in Portugal needed for this thesis. To my friends in the Transportation Program and the MIT-Portugal Program, especially to my colleagues in 1-151, and all those who now know that Uzbekistan is a double-landlocked country. Special thanks to Travis Dunn for your helpful opinions and feedback and being a great mentor. Thank you also for sharing all the information you had gathered while in Portugal, which was essential for my thesis. To Christopher Grillo and Lisa Rayle for being great research teammates and friends. To my best friends at MIT Stefania Radopoulou and Maria-Irene Alexandrakis, big thank you for your precious friendship and moral support during difficult times. You were always there for me and it meant so much. Also, to Elizabeth Paul for being a dear friend and the most easy-going roommate. Special gratitude to Dominik Fuerste of Deutsche Bahn (German Railways) and his colleagues for sharing data, materials, and other resources on Deutsche Bahn. I truly value your enthusiasm and professionalism, and that you found time to help during your short and busy stay at MIT. Getting a first-hand perspective from German Railways made an invaluable contribution to my research. Additional thanks to the staff of Civil & Environmental Engineering Department for being always very helpful and responsive. I thank my mom Jamila Sagdullaeva and sister Nargis Mambet-Sakhibova for your love warming me across the ocean. I would not have been here without your support and lifetime encouragement. Finally, thanks to my love and my best friend Murad Omoev. I would not have made it without you. You are the source of my strength, you are my guiding light, and you are my soul mate. Thank you for your patience and being there for me. 5 6 Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 13 1.1 MOTIVATION .......................................................................................................................... 14 1.2 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ........................................................................................................... 15 1.3 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................... 16 1.4 STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................................ 17 2 LITERATURE REVIEW: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS OF HSR .................... 19 2.1 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT EFFECTS OF TRANSPORT INVESTMENTS IN GENERAL .................... 19 2.1.1 Economic Geography: Agglomeration Benefits and Regional Disparities ........................... 21 2.2 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IMPLICATIONS OF HSR INVESTMENTS .......................................... 25 2.2.1 Studies of Economic Development Effects of HSR on Local Level ..................................... 27 2.2.2 Studies of Economic Development Effects of HSR on Regional and National Levels .......... 28 2.3 PHENOMENON OF MEGALOPOLIS FORMATION ........................................................................ 30 2.3.1 Concept of “Megalopolis” in Economic Geography ............................................................ 30 2.3.2 Role of HSR in “Megalopolis” Formation .......................................................................... 33 2.4 HSR FINANCING APPROACHES: INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCES ............................................. 34 2.5 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 37 3 HIGH-SPEED RAIL IN PORTUGAL ........................................................................................ 39 3.1 CURRENT RAILWAY SYSTEM .................................................................................................. 39 3.2 PLANS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR HSR ...................................................................................... 43 3.3 THE EU OBJECTIVES AND VISION ........................................................................................... 50 3.4 LISBON-PORTO HSR CORRIDOR ANALYSIS ............................................................................ 55 3.5 SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 65 4 JAPAN: SHINKANSEN SYSTEM ............................................................................................
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