Government of Ministry of Counter Narcotics

Afghanistan Opium Survey 2008

Executive Summary August 2008 ABBREVIATIONS

AEF Afghan Eradication Force ANP Afghan National Police GPS Global Positioning System ICMP Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) MCN Ministry of Counter-Narcotics RAS Research and Analysis Section (UNODC) UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2008 Afghanistan Opium Survey and to the preparation of this report:

Survey and Monitoring Directorate of Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Ibrahim Azhar (Director) Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director) Survey Coordinators: Fazal Karim (for the central region), Abdul Mateen (), Abdul Latif Ehsan ( Hirat province), Fida Mohammad ( province), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi ( province), Hashmatullah Asek () Remote sensing analysts: Ghulam Abbas and Sayed Sadat Mahdi Khiali Jan (Survey Coordinator for the central region), Sayed Mehdi (Remote Sensing Analyst), Ghulam Abbas (Remote Sensing Analyst), Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Data Expert), Arzo Omid (Data Clerk), Mohammad Ajmal (Data Clerk), Sahar (Data Clerk).

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime () Christina Oguz (Country Representative), Hakan Demirbüken (Regional Illicit Crop Monitoring Expert for South-West Asia and Survey Project Manager, STAS), Shirish Ravan (International Project Coordinator, ICMP), Ziauddin Zaki (Data Analyst), Abdul Manan Ahmdzai (Survey Officer) Survey Coordinators: Abdul Basir Basiret (eastern region) Abdul Jalil (northern region), Abdul Qadir Palwal (southern region), Fawad Alahi (western region), Mohammed Rafi (north-eastern region), Rahimullah Omar (central region), Sayed Ahmad (southern region), Abdul Rahim Marikh (eastern region), Fardin Osmani (northern region) Eradication Verification Coordinators: Awal Khan, Hafizullah Hakimi, Khalid Sameem, and Emran Bismell Provincial Coordinators: Fazal Mohammad Fazli (southern region), Mohammad Alam Ghalib (eastern region), Altaf Hussain Joya (western region), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (north-eastern region), Lufti Rahman (north region) Eradication reporters: Ramin Sobhi and Zia Ulhaqa

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Sandeep Chawla (Chief, Policy Analysis and Research Branch), Angela Me (Chief, Statistics And Surveys Section-SASS), Thibault Le Pichon (Chief, Studies and Threat Analysis Section-STAS), Anja Korenblik (Programme Management Officer, STAS), Fernanda Tripodi (Programme Officer, SASS/ICMP), Patrick Seramy (Database management, SASS/ICMP), Coen Bussink (GIS Expert, SASS/ICMP), Kristina Kuttnig (Public Information Assistant, STAS).

The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors, who often faced difficult security conditions.

The UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the European Commission and the Governments of Finland, Norway, the United Kingdom and the United States of America.

ii This report is dedicated to the memory of Fazal Ahmad, MCN/UNODC who was part of the team carrying out the dangerous task of verifying opium eradication statistics and lost his life in the process.

The report is also dedicated to all the others who have lost their lives in the cause of building peace in Afghanistan.

iii iv Afghanistan

2008 Annual Opium Poppy Survey

Executive Summary

August 2008

v vi Foreword

A receding flood?

The opium flood waters in Afghanistan have started to recede. This year, the historic high-water mark of 193,000 hectares of opium cultivated in 2007 has dropped by 19% to 157,000 hectares. Opium production declined by only 6% to 7,700 tonnes: not as dramatic a drop as cultivation because of greater yields (a record 48.8 kg/ha against 42.5kg in 2007). Eradication was ineffective in terms of results (only 5,480 ha and about one quarter of last year’s amount), but very costly in terms of human lives.

Also the data collection for this Afghan Opium Survey turned into tragedy as one of our colleagues perished in a suicide attack. Hence the decision to dedicate this work to him, and all those who have died in Afghanistan for the cause of democracy and security.

Since last year, the number of opium-free provinces has increased by almost 50%: from 13 to 18. This means that no opium is grown in more than half of the country’s 34 provinces. Indeed, 98% of all of Afghanistan’s opium is grown in just seven provinces in the south-west (Hilmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Farah, Nimroz, and to a lesser extent Daykundi and Zabul), where there are permanent settlements, and where organized crime groups profit from the instability. This geographical overlap between regions of opium and zones of insurgency shows the inextricable link between drugs and conflict. Since drugs and insurgency are caused by, and effect, each other, they need to be dealt with at the same time – and urgently.

The most glaring example is Hilmand province, in the south, where 103,000 ha of opium were cultivated this year – two thirds of all opium in Afghanistan. If Hilmand were a country, it would once again be the world’s biggest producer of illicit drugs.

By contrast, Nangarhar, Afghanistan’s second highest opium producing province in 2007, has become poppy free. This is a remarkable accomplishment, the first time it happens in the country’s modern history.

What made the flood recede?

Success in 2008 can be attributed to two factors: good local leadership and bad weather.

First, strong leadership by some governors, for example in Badakshan, Balkh and Nangarhar, discouraged farmers from planting opium through campaigns against its cultivation, effective peer pressure and the promotion of rural development. They deserve tangible recognition. Religious leaders, elders and shura also deserve credit for becoming increasingly effective in convincing farmers not to grow opium, not least because it is against Islam.

Second, drought contributed to crop failure, particularly in the north and north-west where most cultivation is rain-fed. The same drastic weather conditions also hurt other crops, like wheat, increasing significantly its domestic price. This, combined with the global impact of rising food prices, is creating a food crisis. Yet, higher farm-gate wheat prices (because of shortages), and lower farm-gate opium prices (because of excess supply) have significantly improved the terms of trade of food: this may provide further incentive to shift crops away from drugs.

Winning back Afghanistan, province by province

To ensure that the opium flood recedes even further, several practical measures are needed. x Regain control of the West. The policy of winning back Afghanistan province by province has proven successful. The goal for 2008 was to make many more provinces, and especially Nangarhar and Badakshan, opium free. This has been achieved. The goal for 2009 should be to win back Farah and Nimroz (as well as Zabul and Day Kundi) where opium cultivation and

vii insurgency are lower than in the south. Because of low productivity, the economic incentive to grow opium in this region is lower than in the country’s more fertile south. x Reward good performance. Prevention is less costly (in terms of human lives and economic means) than manual eradication. Governors of opium free provinces, and those who may join them in 2009, need to be able to deliver on their promises of economic assistance. Aid should be disbursed more quickly, avoiding the transaction costs of national and international bureaucracy. The revenue from licit crops has improved in both absolute and relative terms. The gross income ratio of opium to wheat (per hectare) in 2007 was 10:1. This year it has narrowed to 3:1. x Feed the poor. Afghanistan, already so poor, faces a food crisis. In addition to long-term development assistance, Afghan farmers and urban dwellers urgently need food aid. If such food is purchased domestically and redistributed, as UNODC has long been calling for, this would further improve the terms of trade of licit crops. x Stop the cannabis With world attention focussed on Afghan opium, benign neglect has turned Afghan cannabis into a low risk/high value cash crop. There is no point in reducing opium cultivation if farmers switch to cannabis. This is happening in some of the provinces that are opium free (for example in the north). The issue needs to be seriously researched and addressed. Although in gross terms opium cultivation is most remunerative, today in Afghanistan one hectare of cannabis generates even greater net income (because of opium’s high labour cost.) x Build integrity and justice. Drug cultivation, production, and trafficking are carried out on an enormous scale thanks to collusion between corrupt officials, landowners, warlords and criminals. Until they all face the full force of the law, the opium economy will continue to prosper with impunity, and the Taliban will continue to profit from it. It is the task of development agencies and military operations to maintain economic growth and improve security. These measures should be complemented by equally robust efforts towards good governance, efficient administration and honest judiciary: these efforts have yet to gain momentum. x Find the missing opium. While Afghan opium cultivation and production are declining, in 2008 (and for the third year in a row) its supply far outweighs world demand. Current domestic opium prices (US$70 at farm-gates) show that this market is responding only slowly to economic conditions. Such an inelastic price response suggests that vast amounts of opium, heroin and morphine (thousand of tons) have been withheld from the market. We know little about these stockpiles of drugs, besides that (as reported in the Winter Survey) they are not in the hands of farmers. These stockpiles are a time bomb for public health and global security. As a priority, intelligence services need to examine who holds this surplus, where it may go, and for what purpose. x Catch the most wanted. In line with Security Council Resolutions 1735 and 1822, the Afghan government, assisted by other countries, should bring to justice the most wanted drug traffickers who are bankrolling terrorism and insurgency. Member states have yet to demonstrate willingness to comply with the Security Council’s decisions, for example by seeking extradition of the criminals who sow death among their youth. x Stop the precursor chemicals. In line with another Security Council resolution (1817 of July 2008) Member States agreed to step up efforts to stop the smuggling of precursor chemicals used in Afghanistan to process heroin. During the past few months, increased joint operations have resulted in larger seizures of acetic anhydride bound for Afghanistan. Yet, the risks and the costs of producing heroin are still too low in Afghanistan and west Asia. x Regional security. Most of the opium-producing areas in Afghanistan are located along the Iranian and, especially, the Pakistani borders. Greater counter-narcotics cooperation between

viii the three countries, as well as Central Asia and the Gulf, would disrupt drug smuggling and money laundering.

Hold the course

Afghanistan’s opium problem is big, but more and more localized to a handful of provinces in the south-west. To reduce the problem further, farmers, provincial governors, and district officials need to receive incentives and face deterrents in order not to grow poppy. Stronger security, rule of law and development assistance are urgently needed.

The time to act is now. Unlike coca, opium is a seasonal plant. In a few weeks, farmers will decide whether or not to plant opium for the 2008/09 harvest.

Afghan society has started to make progress in its fight against opium. Farmers now recognize that the risk/reward balance is tilting against growing opium. Local administrators and religious leaders have started to deliver. It is up to the central government to provide the leadership, security, justice and integrity needed for further progress: a politically sensitive and yet crucial requirement as the young Afghan democracy enters another election period.

Antonio Maria Costa Executive Director UNODC

ix x 2008 Annual Opium Poppy Survey in Afghanistan

Fact Sheet

Difference on 2007 2008 2007 Net opium poppy cultivation (after eradication) 193,000 ha -19% 157,000 ha In percent of agricultural land 4.27% 2.05% In percent of global cultivation 82% N/A Number of provinces affected by poppy 21 16 cultivation Number of poppy free provinces 13 18 Eradication 19,047 ha -71% 5,480 ha Weighted average opium yield 42.5 kg/ha +15% 48.8 kg/ha Potential production of opium 8,200 mt -6% 7,700 mt In percent of global production 93% N/A Number of households involved in opium 509,000 -28% 366,500 cultivation Number of persons involved in opium 3.3 million -28% 2.4 million cultivation In percent of total population (23 14.3% 10% million)1 Average farm gate price (weighted by US$ 86/kg -19% US$ 70/kg production) of fresh opium at harvest time Average farm gate price (weighted by US$ 122/kg -22% US$ 95/kg production) of dry opium at harvest time Afghanistan GDP2 US$ 7.5 billion +36% US$ 10.2 billion Total farm gate value of opium production US$ 1 billion -27% US$ 732 million In percent of GDP 13% 7% Total export value of opium to neighboring US$ 4 billion N/A countries In percent of GDP 53% N/A Household average yearly gross income from US$ 1965 +2% US$ 1997 opium of opium poppy growing families Per capita gross income from poppy growing US$ 302 +2% US$ 307 for opium poppy growing farmers Current Afghanistan GDP per capita US$ 310 +34% US$ 415 Indicative gross income from opium per ha US$ 5200 -10% US$ 4662 Indicative gross income from wheat per ha US$ 546 +198% US$ 1625

1 Source: Afghan Government, Central Statistical Office.

2 Source: Afghan Government, Central Statistical Office, preliminary estimate.

1 2 Summary findings

The total opium cultivation in 2008 in Afghanistan is estimated at 157,000 hectares (ha), a 19% reduction compared to 2007. Unlike previous years, 98% of the total cultivation is confined to seven provinces with security problems: five of these provinces are in the south and two in the west of Afghanistan. Of the 34 provinces in the country, 18 were poppy free in 2008 compared to 13 in 2007. This includes the eastern province of Nangarhar, which was the number two cultivator in 2007 and now is free from poppy cultivation. At the district level, 297 of Afghanistan’s 398 districts were poppy free in 2008. Only a tiny portion of the total cultivation took place in the north (Baghlan and Faryab), north-east (Badakhshan) and east (Kunar, Laghman and Kapisa). Together these regions counted for less than two per cent of cultivation. The seven southern and western provinces that contributed to 98% of Afghan opium cultivation and production are Hilmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Daykundi, Zabul, Farah and Nimroz. This clearly highlights the strong link between opium cultivation and the lack of security. The total opium production in 2008 is estimated at 7,700 metric tons (mt), a 6% reduction compared to production in 2007. Almost all of the production (98%) takes place in the same seven provinces where the cultivation is concentrated and where the yield per hectare was relatively higher than in the rest of the country. All the other provinces contributed only 2% of total opium production in the country. The gross income for farmers who cultivated opium poppy is estimated at US$ 732 million in 2008. This is a decrease from 2007, when farm-gate income for opium was estimated at US$ 1 billion.

Opium poppy cultivation decreases by 19% in 2008 The area under opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan decreased by 19% in 2008, from 193,000 ha in 2007 to 157,000 ha, 98% of which is confined to seven provinces in the south and the west.

Figure 1: Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan (ha), 1994-2008

200,000

175,000

150,000

125,000

100,000

Hectares 75,000

50,000

25,000

0 1994 1195 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Cultivation 71,000 54,000 57,000 58,000 64,000 91,000 82,000 8,000 74,000 80,000 131,000 104,000 165,000 193,000 157,000

3 The Opium Winter Assessment Survey 2008 (implemented in January/February 2008) anticipated a slight reduction in opium cultivation (UNODC, Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Report, February 2008). The full Opium Survey shows that the cultivation has reduced more than expected thanks to successful counter-narcotic efforts in the northern and eastern . This decline was also a result of unfavorable weather conditions that caused extreme drought and crop failure in some provinces, especially those in which agriculture is rain-fed. In areas where the cultivation decline has been the result of the severe drought, there are real challenges for the Government and international stakeholders to sustain the declining cultivation trend. There is an urgent need to mobilize support to meet short term and long term needs of the farmers affected by the drastic weather conditions. Eighteen provinces have been found to be free of poppy and cultivation. In eastern and northern provinces cultivation was reduced to negligible levels. The province of Nangarhar, which was once the top producing province, has become poppy free for the first time since the systematic monitoring of opium started in Afghanistan in the early 1990s. 2008 also presents a stark contrast because Nangarhar cultivated as much as 18,739 ha only last year. The regional divide of opium cultivation between the south and rest of the country continued to sharpen in 2008. Most of the opium cultivation is confined to the south and the west, which are dominated by insurgency and organized criminal networks. This corresponds to the sharper polarization of the security situation between the lawless south and relatively stable north. Hilmand still remains the dominant opium cultivating province (103,500 ha) followed by Kandahar, Uruzgan, Farah and Nimroz. A major difference in the regional distribution of 2007 and 2008 cultivation is that cultivation in the east (Nangarhar, Kunar and Laghman) has dropped to insignificant levels in 2008. Compared to a total of 19,746 ha of opium cultivation in 2007, in 2008 the eastern region is estimated to have cultivated only 1,150 ha.

Number of opium poppy free provinces increases to 18 in 2008 The number of opium poppy free provinces increased to 18 in 2008 compared to 13 in 2007 and six in 2006. These poppy free3 provinces are shown in the table below:

Central region Ghazni*,Khost*, Logar*, Nuristan*, Paktika*, Paktya*, Panjshir*, Parwan*, Wardak* North region Balkh*, Bamyan*, Jawzjan, Samangan*, Sari Pul North-East region *, Takhar East region Nangarhar West region Ghor * Poppy free provinces in 2007 and 2008

Encouragingly, all the provinces which were poppy free in 2007 remained poppy free in 2008. Campaigns against poppy cultivation, effective law enforcement implementation by the Government, and alternative development assistance to farmers contributed to the increase in the number of poppy free provinces. Prevailing conditions of drought, as noted above, also played a part in making opium cultivation negligible in the rain-fed areas of northern Afghanistan (Faryab and Badakhshan).

3 A region is defined as poppy free when it is estimated to have less than 100 ha of opium cultivation.

4 Nangarhar becomes poppy free for the first time in the history of UN opium monitoring in Afghanistan Nangarhar was traditionally a large poppy growing province and in 2007 it was estimated to have 18,739 ha of opium cultivation. In 2008, Nangarhar province became poppy free for the first time since the UN began opium cultivation monitoring in Afghanistan, In 2004, poppy cultivation in Nangarhar was 28,213 ha; in 2005, it fell to1,093 ha. In 2006, it increased to 4,872 ha but could only be found in very remote parts of the province. Kunar and Laghman provinces also showed a considerable reduction (35% and 24% respectively) in poppy cultivation in 2008. In both provinces, opium poppy cultivation (amounting each to less then 500 ha) was restricted to remote areas that are difficult to access. Kapisa also experienced a considerable reduction of 45% in opium cultivation. However, this is a province with a high security risk and a higher percentage of agricultural land if compared to Kunar and Laghman. These factors increase the challenges of sustaining the reduction next year. The poppy free status of Nangarhar and reduced cultivation in Kunar and Laghman show an effective provincial leadership in implementing control measures to stop poppy cultivation in the eastern region

North and North-East Afghanistan show drastic reduction in opium cultivation Northern Afghanistan also shows successes in terms of poppy free status and reduced cultivation. The total reduction in poppy cultivation in the north and north-east regions is 84 and 96% respectively compared to 2007. In north and north-east Afghanistan, the amount of opium cultivation is estimated to be very low affecting only three provinces, namely Faryab (289 ha), Baghlan (475 ha) and Badakhshan (200 ha). The rest of the provinces in northern region (Balkh, Bamyan, Jawzjan, Samangan, Saripul, Kunduz and Takhar) are poppy free. The drought in 2008 affected not only opium cultivation but other agricultural production as well. In particular, it caused the failure of the rain-fed wheat crop, which resulted in serious difficulties for farmers. As a consequence, food prices have escalated in Afghanistan. If emergency food aid and massive development aid are not extended to the northern, central and eastern parts of the country (especially Nangarhar), there is a serious risk of a backlash next year. Many farmers are losing the cash income they used to receive from opium, and at the same time they have to buy wheat and other food items at very high prices. This poses considerable challenges in keeping the region poppy free in the near future.

98% of opium poppy cultivation is restricted to the South and South-West The number of security incidents increased sharply in the last three years, especially in the south and south-west of Afghanistan. Over the same period, and in the same regions, opium cultivation showed the same sharp increase. In 2008, 98% of opium cultivation is confined to seven provinces in the south and west, namely Hilmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Zabul, Farah and Nimroz. Security conditions are extremely poor in those provinces. Hilmand still remains the single largest opium cultivating province with 103,500 ha (66% of total cultivation in Afghanistan) almost at the same level as 2007. Between 2002 and 2008, cultivation in Hilmand province more than tripled. A lot of land outside the traditional agricultural areas has been reclaimed for the sole purpose of opium cultivation in Hilmand.

5 Photo 1 Photo 1 shows an area on the right side of the canal which has been newly reclaimed as agricultural land for opium cultivation. Farmers in Hilmand appear to be able to afford the high expenses needed to reclaim land for opium cultivation.

Photo 2 Photo 2 shows agriculture land in which is well developed with ample irrigation facilities. This area is known for its intensive opium cultivation. The picture shows wheat and poppy in the sprouting stage. Wheat can be distinguished from opium because of its darker green colour.

6 In Kandahar province, opium cultivation was 14,623 ha in 2008 (a reduction of 12% from 2007) but remaining significantly higher than in 2006. The increase in opium cultivation started in the year 2004 when only 4,959 ha were cultivated. Since then, the area under opium poppy has tripled. The total area under opium in Zabul increased by 45% reaching 2,335 ha in 2008.

Table 1: Distribution of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan by region, 2007- 2008

Change 2007 (ha) as 2008 (ha) as Region 2007 (ha) 2008 (ha) 2007-2008 % of total % of total

Southern 133,546 132,760 -1% 69% 84% Northern 4,882 766 -84% 3% 0.5% Western 28,619 22,066 -23% 15% 14% North-eastern 4,853 200 -96% 3% 0.1% Eastern 20,581 715 -97% 11% 0.5% Central 500 746 49% 0.3% 0.5%

In 2008 there was a 5% decrease in opium cultivation in Nimroz province (6,203 ha) compared to last year. Cultivation in Nimroz was three times as high as in 2006. The majority of the cultivation has always been located in . Many new agricultural areas were developed in the northern part of this district since 2007, and a vast majority of them have been used for opium cultivation.

Opium cultivation in Farah amounted to 15,010 ha with a 1% increase compared to 2007 (14,865 ha) when the total area under opium poppy almost doubled compared to 2006 (7,694 ha). No eradication was carried out in this province despite the high opium cultivation. In 2002, the total cultivation in this province was only 500 ha.

Table 2: Main opium poppy cultivating provinces in Afghanistan (ha), 2008 % Change Total Province 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2007- in 2008 2008 Hilmand 15,371 29,353 26,500 69,324 102,770 103,590 1% 66% Kandahar 3,055 4,959 12,989 12,619 16,615 14,623 -14% 9% Farah 1,700 2,288 10,240 7,694 14,865 15,010 1% 10% Uruzgan 4,698 N/A 2,024 9,773 9,204 9,939 7% 6% Nimroz 26 115 1,690 1,955 6,507 6,203 -5% 4%

7 Table 3: Opium poppy cultivation (2004-2008) and eradication (2007-2008) in Afghanistan (ha) by region and province

Change Change Total area of Total area of Cultivation Cultivation Cultivation Cultivation Cultivation PROVINCE 2007-2008 2007-2008 eradication in eradication in 2004 (ha) 2005 (ha) 2006 (ha) 2007 (ha) 2008 (ha) (ha) (%) 2007 (ha) 2008 (ha)

Kabul 282 0 80 500 310 -190 -38% 14 20 Khost 838 0 133 0 0 0 0% 16 0 Logar 24 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 Paktya 1,200 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 Panjshir0000000%00 Parwan 1,310 0 124 0 0 0 0% 1 0 Wardak 1,017 106 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 Ghazni 62 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 Paktika 0000000%00 Central Region 4,733 106 337 500 310 -190 -38% 31 20 Kapisa 522 115 282 835 436 -399 -48% 10 6 Kunar 4,366 1,059 932 446 290 -156 -35% 27 103 Laghman 2,756 274 710 561 425 -136 -24% 802 26 Nangarhar 28,213 1,093 4,872 18,739 0 -18,739 -100% 2,339 26 Nuristan 764 1,554 1,516 0 0 0 0% 0 3 Eastern Region 36,621 4,095 8,312 20,581 1,151 -19,430 -94% 3,178 164 Badakhshan 15,607 7,370 13,056 3,642 200 -3,442 -95% 1,311 774 Takhar 762 1,364 2,178 1,211 0 -1,211 -100% 781 0 Kunduz 224 275 102 0 0 0 0% 5 0 North-eastern Region 16,593 9,009 15,336 4,853 200 -4,653 -96% 2,097 774 Baghlan 2,444 2,563 2,742 671 475 -196 -29% 185 85 Balkh 2,495 10,837 7,232 0 0 0 0% 14 0 Bamyan 803 126 17 0 0 0 0% 0 0 Faryab 3,249 2,665 3,040 2,866 291 -2,575 -90% 337 0 Jawzjan 1,673 1,748 2,024 1,085 0 -1,085 -100% 122 0 Samangan 1,151 3,874 1,960 0 0 0 0% 0 0 Sari Pul 1,974 3,227 2,252 260 0 -260 -100% 114 0 Northern Region 13,789 25,040 19,267 4,882 766 -4,116 -84% 772 85 Hilmand 29,353 26,500 69,324 102,770 103,590 820 1% 4,003 1,416 Kandahar 4,959 12,989 12,619 16,615 14,623 -1,992 -12% 7,905 1,222 Uruzgan 11,080 2,024 9,703 9,204 9,939 735 8% 204 113 Zabul 2,977 2,053 3,210 1,611 2,335 724 45% 183 0 Day Kundi 0 2,581 7,044 3,346 2,273 -1,073 -32% 5 0 Southern Region 48,369 46,147 101,900 133,546 132,760 -786 -1% 12,300 2,751 Badghis 614 2,967 3,205 4,219 587 -3,632 -86% 232 0 Farah 2,288 10,240 7,694 14,865 15,010 145 1% 143 9 Ghor 4,983 2,689 4,679 1,503 0 -1,503 -100% 188 38 Hirat 2,531 1,924 2,287 1,525 266 -1,259 -83% 70 352 Nimroz 115 1,690 1,955 6,507 6,203 -304 -5% 35 113 Western Region 10,531 19,510 19,820 28,619 22,066 -6,553 -23% 668 511 Total (rounded) 131,000 104,000 165,000 193,000 157,000 -36,000 -19% 19,047 4,306

8 Potential opium production in Afghanistan declines to 7,700 mt in 2008 The average yield for Afghanistan in 2008 was 48.8 kg/ha compared to 42.5 kg/ha in 2007. This is the highest average yield estimated for Afghanistan since 2000. The yield per hectare in the southern region is normally considerably higher than the rest of the country. Prior to 2008, there was significant opium cultivation outside the southern region which lowered the average national yield. In 2008, the region that accounted for 98% of the total national cultivation is the one with the highest yield. Although the weather conditions were unfavorable for a second crop (spring cultivation) throughout the whole country, the first crop (fall cultivation) in south and south-west received adequate irrigation. These conditions naturally led to a reduced level of cultivation in 2008 and lower yields in the central and eastern regions, but they did not affect the yield in the south, where most of the cultivation was concentrated and where the yield actually increased. Given the different distribution of the cultivation and yield, the 19% total decrease in cultivation resulted in a smaller 6% decrease in potential opium production which is estimated in 2008 at 7,700 mt. If all the opium were converted into heroin and using a 7:1 ratio as reported in previous studies, this would amount to 1,100 mt of heroin4.

Figure 2: Potential opium production in Afghanistan (metric tons), 1994-2008

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000 Metric tons 3,000

2,000

1,000

0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Production 3,416 2,335 2,248 2,804 2,693 4,565 3,278 185 3,400 3,600 4,200 4,100 6,100 8,200 7,700

Reflecting the distribution of the cultivation, almost 98% of the potential opium production took place in the south and south-west of Afghanistan in 2008. The opium production in Hilmand alone (5,397 mt) was higher than Afghanistan’s total production in 2005 (4,100 mt).

4 It is estimated that the actual production of morphine and heroin in Afghanistan is about 30 to 40% less than the total 1,100 mt, since a significant amount of opium is exported to other countries without being processed in Afghanistan.

9 Table 4: Average opium yield in Afghanistan by region, 2007-2008 2007 Average 2008 Average Region Change yield (kg/ha) yield (kg/ha) Central (Parwan, Paktya, Wardak, Khost, Kabul, 51.9 36.2 -30% Logar, Ghazni, Paktika, Panjshir) East (Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman, Nuristan, Kapisa) 45.2 39.3 -13%

North-east (Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz) 40.7 31.4 -23% North (Bamyan, Jawzjan, Sari Pul, Baghlan, Faryab, 49.7 54.6 10% Balkh, Samangan) South (Hilmand, Uruzgan, Kandahar, Zabul, Day 42.2 52.1 23% Kundi) West (Ghor, Hirat, Farah, Nimroz, Badghis) 28.8 29.7 3%

Weighted national average 42.5 48.8 15%

Potential opium production in the southern region of Afghanistan increased in 2008 by 20% reaching 6,917 mt, which is equivalent to 90% of the production in the whole country. In western regions, potential opium production decreased by 32% to 655 mt. Opium production decreased by 82% in the northern region, by 97% in the north-east and by 96% in the eastern region. The total amount of production in north, north-east and east was only 93 mt, which is just over 1% of the total potential opium production of the country.

10 Table 5: Potential opium production5 by region and by province (metric ton), 2007-2008 Change Change Production Production PROVINCE 2007-2008 2007-2008 REGION 2007 (mt) 2008 (mt) (mt) (%) Kabul 26 11 -15 -57% Central Khost 0 0 0 0% Central Logar 0 0 0 0% Central Paktya 0 0 0 0% Central Panjshir 0 0 0 0% Central Parwan 0 0 0 0% Central Wardak 0 0 0 0% Central Ghazni 0 0 0 0% Central Paktika 0 0 0 0% Central Central Region 26 11 -15 -57% Kapisa 40 17 -23 -58% East Kunar 18 11 -7 -38% East Laghman 20 17 -3 -15% East Nangarhar 1,006 0 -1006 -100% East Nuristan 0 0 0 0% East Eastern Region 1,084 45 -1039 -96% Badakhshan 152 6 -146 -96% North-East Takhar 43 0 -43 -100% North-East Kunduz 0 0 0 0% North-East North-eastern 195 6 -189 -97% Region Baghlan 36 26 -10 -28% North Balkh 0 0 0 0% North Bamyan 0 0 0 0% North Faryab 135 16 -119 -88% North Jawzjan 54 0 -54 -100% North Samangan 0 0 0 0% North Sari Pul 9 0 -9 -100% North Northern Region 233 42 -192 -82% Hilmand 4,399 5,397 998 23% South Kandahar 739 762 22 3% South Uruzgan 411 518 107 26% South Zabul 61 122 60 98% South Day Kundi 135 118 -17 -12% South Southern Region 5,745 6,917 1172 20% Badghis 100 17 -83 -83% West Farah 409 446 37 9% West Ghor 44 0 -44 -100% West Hirat 33 8 -25 -76% West Nimroz 372 184 -188 -51% West Western Region 959 655 -303 -32% Total (rounded) 8,200 7,700 -500 -6%

5 Total national opium production is derived from the weighted average yield and total cultivation

11 10.3% of the total population is involved in opium cultivation The total number of households involved in growing poppy in 2008 is estimated at 366,000, a reduction of 28% compared to 2007. Of these, 266,862 families (73%) were in the southern region (Hilmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Zabul and Day Kundi) and 18% in the western region (Nimroz and Farah). The percentage of opium cultivating families is negligible in the rest of the country. Given an average of 6.5 members per household6, this represents an estimated total of about 2.38 million persons, or 10.3 % of Afghanistan’s total population of 23 million7 In terms of the average size of fields dedicated to poppy cultivation per poppy-growing household, the southern region showed the biggest size (0.5 ha) compared to any other region.

Table 6: Number of families involved in opium cultivation in Afghanistan, 2008 Percentage of Average size of Total no. of poppy growing poppy fields per Opium poppy Region households growing households over each household cultivation (ha) poppy total number of growing poppy- households (ha) Central 310 3,747 1% 0.08 Eastern 1,151 19,743 5% 0.06 North-eastern 200 6,218 2% 0.03 Northern 766 5,240 1% 0.15 Southern 132,760 266,862 73% 0.50 Western 22,066 64,674 18% 0.34 Total (rounded) 157,000 366,500 100% 0.43

Opium prices fall in 2008 In 2008, the weighted average farm-gate price of fresh opium at harvest time was US$ 70/kg, which is 19% lower than in 2007 and almost one fifth of the price in 2001. Between 2007 and 2008 farm-gate prices of dry opium also fell by 22%, reaching US$ 95/kg (weighted price) at harvest time. The Afghanistan Government (Ministry of Counter-Narcotics) and UNODC (MCN/UNODC) have monitored opium prices on a monthly basis in various provinces of Afghanistan since 19948. These monthly prices show a decreasing trend for farm-gate dry opium prices since the year 2004.

6 Source: Central Statistics Office, Government of Afghanistan. 7 Source: Central Statistics Office, Government of Afghanistan. 8 UNODC also started monitoring prices in two key provinces in 1997.

12 Figure 3: Average farm-gate price of dry opium (US$/kg), September 2004 to July 2008

250 222

200 187 180 171 170 167 161 161 159 154 152 150 149 147 145 150 145 141 141 140 140 139 139 137 136 134 133 128 127 125 123 121 115 114 113 108 106 105 105 105 103 101 100 100 98 91 91 90 Price in (USD/Kg) in Price 85

50

0

5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 5 5 6 6 7 7 8

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

------l - l - l - l

t r t r t r t r

v c n b r y n v c n b r y n v c n b r y n v c n b r y n p p p p u g u g u g u c c c c a a a a

o e a e p a u o e a e p a u o e a e p a u o e a e p a u e e e e J u J u J u J

O J J O J J O J J O J J F M A F M A F M A F M A S N D S N D S N D S N D M A M A M A M Month

13 Figure 4: Fresh opium farm-gate prices at harvest time (weighted by production) in Afghanistan(US$/kg), 1994-2008

350

301 300 283

250 250

200 US$/kg

150

102 94 100 92 86 70

40 50 30 34 33 23 24 28

0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Sources: UNODC, Opium Surveys 1994-2007

Table 7: Farm-gate prices of dry and fresh opium in Afghanistan at harvest time (US$/kg) by region, 2008

Average Average Average Dry Average Dry Fresh Opium Fresh Opium Region Change Opium Price Opium Price Change Price (US$)- Price (US$)- (US$)-2007 (US$)-2008 2007 2008 Central (Parwan, Paktya, Wardak, Khost, Kabul, 124 133 7% 167 171 2% Logar, Ghazni, Paktika, Panjshir) Eastern (Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman, 88 92 5% 168 117 -30% Nuristan, Kapisa) North-eastern (Badakhshan, Takhar, 71 85 20% 86 72 -16% Kunduz) Northern (Bamyan, Jawzjan, Sari Pul, 71 56 -21% 90 72 -20% Baghlan, Faryab, Balkh, Samangan) Southern (Hilmand, Uruzgan, Kandahar, 85 69 -19% 115 94 -18% Zabul, Day Kundi) Western (Ghor, Hirat, 97 83 -14% 125 104 -17% Farah, Nimroz, Badghis) National average price 86 70 -19% 122 95 -22% weighted by production

14 Trends in average dry farm-gate prices vary according to regions. They decreased by 30% in eastern regions, while in other regions (except the central region), the decrease in dry farm- gate prices is between 16-20%. Opium prices increased by only 2% in the central region. The highest dry opium prices were reported in the central (US$ 171/kg) and eastern regions (US$ 117/kg). One possible explanation for the general decreasing trend is that there is a surplus of opium due to the record production of 8,200 mt in 2007 and another significant production level of 7,700 mt in 2008. These production levels are above the estimated global demand of illicit opium9 suggesting that the surplus production has been accumulated as stocks. It could be argued that given the production increases in 2006 and 2007 and the still high production in 2008, prices have not fallen as much as expected. A possible explanation could be that after the sharp decrease in opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar and Laos in recent years, opium from Afghanistan appears to be increasingly trafficked to , India and South-East Asia, which were traditionally supplied by opium from the Golden Triangle.

Total farm-gate value of opium decreased by 27% to US$ 732 million Based on opium production and reported opium prices, the farm-gate value of the opium harvest amounted in 2008 to US$ 732 million. The farm-gate value of opium as a proportion of GDP decreased in 2008 to 7% compared to 13% in 200710.

Slight decrease of opium income for Hilmand farmers In 2008, farmers in Hilmand earned a total of US$ 513 million of income from the farm-gate value of opium. In 2007, the total opium income for farmers in Hilmand amounted to US$ 528 million, an increase from the total US$ 347 million estimated in 2006. Several parts of the south and south-west are under the control of anti-government elements. Some of the 10% agricultural tax that is generally levied could thus provide revenue for these anti-government elements who, in turn, provide protection for poppy growing areas.

Reasons for cultivation/non-cultivation of opium poppy As part of the 2008 survey, 3,050 farmers in 1,529 villages across Afghanistan were asked about their reasons for cultivating, or not cultivating, opium poppy. Each farmer could provide more than one reason. As in 2007, almost all farmers who never cultivated opium reported ‘religion’ as one of the reasons (91% of farmers in 2008 and 93% in 2007). A consistent number of farmers also reported ’illegality of the crop’ (68% of farmers), and ‘respect for a shura/elders decision’ (46% of farmers). Based on these results, it could be argued that the majority of farmers who never cultivated poppy appear to be sensitive to the rule of law. In fact few farmers cited reasons related to income or climate for not growing poppy. This also shows that the cultural/religious pressure for not cultivating poppy can indeed be very strong.

9 World Drug Report 2008, UNODC 10 These percentages were calculated considering the 2007 GDP estimated by the Central Statistical Office of Afghanistan).at US$ 10.2 billion.

15 Figure 5: Reasons for never having cultivated poppy (n=1488 farmers in 2007; n=1804 in 2008)11

91% Against Islam 93% 68% Illegal crop 68% 46% Elders and shura decision 44% 15% Earn enough from other crops / sources 16% 12% Climate condition is not suitable 11% 2% Other 5% 1% Negative impact on society 2% 1% Lack of water 1% Lack of experience 1% 1% 2007 2008

Fear of eradication 1% 38% Respect for government ban 1%

Among the farmers that grew poppy in the past but stopped, “respect for Government ban” is one of the reasons most commonly reported (79% of farmers), followed by “decisions of the elders and the Shura” (48%), and poor yield (36%). To a lesser extent farmers reported reasons related to weather or agricultural conditions.

Figure 6: Reasons for not having cultivated opium poppy in 2007 and 2008 (n=2261 in 2007; n=2521 in 2008)11

79% Respect for government ban 85% 48% Elders and Shura decision 50% Poor yield 36% 14% Lack of water 18% 12% Lack of experience 22% 9% Land/climate conditions not suitable 32% 4% Against Islam 2% 1% Other 25% 2% Low sale price of opium 2007 2008

Fear of eradication 1%

Negative impact of society 1%

11 The percentages add to more 100 because farmers reported more than one reason. The presentation of the data differs from previous years. This year the percentage of each reported reason is presented as percentage of total number of farmers. Previous years data were reported as percentage of total number of responses (total number of responses were higher than the number of farmers because farmers reported more than one response).

16 Shura decisions, respect for Government ban and religion are less important in the south of Afghanistan compared to the other regions. In the eastern region, farmers appear to be more concerned about respecting the Government ban than in other regions. One of the reasons reported by the majority of farmers for cultivating opium across the regions was ‘poverty alleviation’ (92% of farmers). Among the most common additional reasons provided were ‘high sale price of opium’ (66% of farmers) and ‘possibility of obtaining loans’(50% of farmers). In southern and western provinces, high sale price and poverty alleviation were the dominant reasons for opium cultivation while in the eastern region it was poverty alleviation. Figure 7: Reasons for opium poppy cultivation in 2008 (n=718 in 2007; n=508 in 2008)12

92% Poverty alleviation 85%

High cost of wedding 38%

66% High sale price of opium 74%

Possibility of obtaining loan 50% 48%

High demand for opium 37% 30%

Needed for personal consumption 21% 7%

Encouraged by external influence 8% 3% 2007 2008

Low cost of inputs (seeds, fertilizer, 2% labour) 4%

Other 2% 7%

Agriculture assistance received by the farmer In addition to farmers, headmen were interviewed in each of the 1,529 villages included in the survey. According to the information that they provided, 281 out of the 1,529 surveyed villages (18.4%) received agricultural assistance. The type of assistance varied and included improved seeds/saplings (78% of villages), fertilizers (69% of villages), irrigation facilities (14% of villages). Only 2% received agricultural training.

The majority (72%) of the villages which received agriculture assistance did not opt for poppy cultivation in 2008. However the remaining 28% still cultivated poppy despite receiving agricultural assistance.

12 See footnote 11.

17 Figure 8: Type of agricultural assistance delivered to villages as reported by headman (n = 281 villages that received agricultural assistance)13

Improved 78% seeds/saplings

Fertilizer 69%

Irrigation 14%

Other 2%

Agricultural Training 2%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Income levels and poppy cultivation In the 2008 village survey, MCN/UNODC collected information on the 2007 annual household income of 3,050 farmers, both poppy growing and non-growing. Results confirm the 2006 trend that in the southern region farmers have higher income than those living in other regions. The 2007 average annual income for poppy growing farmers increased in southern and western Afghanistan while it decreased in the rest of Afghanistan compared to 2006. The average annual income of poppy growing farmers in north-eastern and central Afghanistan was less than that of non-poppy growing farmers in 2007 due to the low level of poppy cultivation and the decrease in prices. In these two regions, farmers grew opium mainly for personal consumption. Similar to 2007, the 2008 survey shows that the cultivation of opium is more widely spread in regions where farmers have the highest levels of income. Table 8: 2007 annual household income by region14

Average annual Average annual % household income household income of household income of difference between non-poppy Region poppy famers in 2007 non-poppy famers in farmers and poppy farmers as (US$) 2007 (US$) % of poppy farmers income 1 2 (2-1)/1 Central 2357 2674 +13% Eastern 1817 1753 -4% North-eastern 1970 2290 +16% Northern 2270 1862 -18% Southern 6194 3382 -45% Western 2895 2273 -21% Over all 5055 2370 -53%

13 The percentages add to more than 100 because the village may have received more than one type of assistance. 14 Caution should be used in comparing household income of growing and non growing households and across regions given the different size and distribution of farmers in the samples.

18 Security and opium cultivation show strong correlation In 2008, 98% of the opium poppy cultivation was concentrated in Hilmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Day Kundi, Zabul, Farah and Nimroz, where security conditions are classified as high or extremely risky by the United Nations Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS). Most of the districts in this region are not accessible to the UN and NGOs. Anti-government elements as well as drug traders are very active in this region. Provinces in the south are the stronghold of anti-government elements, while provinces in the west (Farah and Nimroz) are known to have organized criminal networks. The security map (source: UNDSS) shows the difference between southern and northern provinces in terms of security.

Security incidents in Afghanistan have been on the rise every year since 2003, especially in the south and south-western provinces. The number of security incidents increased sharply in 2006, in parallel with the increase of opium poppy cultivation. The year 2008 shows a further sharp increase in security incidents.

Figure 9: Number of security incidents by month, January 2003 to June 2008

UNDSS SECURITY INCIDENTS

1000 900 800 2003 700 2004 600 2005 500 2006 400 2007 300 2008 200 100 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: UNDSS, Kabul

Opium poppy eradication has become more risky Eradication activities in 2008 were severely affected by resistance from insurgents. Since most of the poppy cultivation remains confined to the south and south-west region dominated by strong insurgency, eradication operations may in the future become even more challenging.

Security incidents associated with eradication activities in Hilmand, Kandahar, Hirat, Nimroz, Kapisa, Kabul and Nangarhar provinces included shooting and mine explosions resulting in

19 the death of at least 78 people, most of whom were policemen. This is an increase of about 75% if compared to the 19 deaths in 2007. The major incidents were in Nanarhar and Nimroz provinces.

One of the most serious incidents happened in of Nangarhar, where 20 policemen were killed together with Fazal Ahmad, a MCN/UNODC surveyor whose job was to collect the data that feed into this report. Other incidents happened in Khashrod district of Nimroz, where 29 people died along with the district police chief. Both attacks were carried out by suicide bombers. The Poppy Eradication Force (PEF) faced a large number of rocket attacks while carrying out eradication in Hilmand province.

The nature of the attacks changed between 2007 and 2008. In 2007, police deaths were the result of violence by farmers whereas deaths in 2008 were the result of insurgent actions, including suicide attacks.

5,480 ha of opium poppy eradication verified A total of 5,480 ha of eradicated poppy fields were verified by MCN/UNODC. This included Governor-led eradication (GLE) (4,306 ha) and eradication led by the centrally controlled Poppy Eradication Force (PEF) (1,174 ha). It should be noted that the figure provided for GLE is a result of adjustments made to the initial figures reported by the field verifiers in the two provinces of Helmand and Kandahar following the discovery of significant over- reporting in these two provinces. These adjustments were made using satellite images which brought the figure of 6,326 ha initially reported by the field verifiers down to 3,842 ha. All verification from the centrally directed PEF was found accurate after a similar verification was done using satellite images.

Summary of eradication since 2005 The eradication and cultivation situation since 2005 is provided in the table below: Table 9: Eradication and cultivation in Afghanistan (ha) 2005-2008 Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 GLE (ha) 4,000 13,050 15,898 4,30615 PEF (ha) 210 2,250 3,149 1,174 Total (ha) 4,210 15,300 19,510 5,480 Cultivation (ha) 104,000 165,000 193,000 157,000

% poppy in insecure provinces of South and 56% 68% 80% 98% West

Poppy free provinces 8 6 13 18

Some of the key factors that could explain the drop in eradication carried out in 2008 are: o A reduction in the number of provinces eradicating because of the number of poppy- free provinces and provinces with negligible levels of cultivation increased in 2008. In 2007, 26 provincial governors conducted eradication; in 2008 only 17 provinces conducted eradication. o Overall crop failure due to an extremely cold winter reduced the poppy crop in a number of provinces.

15 The final figure adjusted using high resolution satellite images.

20 o Increased voluntary and/or forced self-eradication by poppy farmers. An active public information campaign and vigorous enforcement action by some provincial governors led to a substantial amount of self-eradication carried out by farmers either voluntarily or through coercion. These figures cannot be counted in the official figures (because they are not verifiable) but the claims are in the order of 3,000- 4,000 ha.. o Unlike previous years, most of the cultivation is concentrated in a limited number of lawless provinces in the south (Hilmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Zabul and Daykundi) and west (Farah and Nimroz). Eradication in these provinces is more challenging due to security problems.

Table 10: Governor-led eradication by province (ha), 2008 Province Eradication No. of No. of Total standing poppy Per centage of (ha) fields villages after eradication in opium poppy verified eradication eradication the reported villages eradication in reported reported (ha) surveyed villages

Badakhshan 774 1374 145 125 86% Baghlan 85 125 16 0 100% Farah 9 15 9 670 1% Ghor 38 170 38 11 78% Hilmand 1416 2221 140 1449 49% Hirat 352 606 55 140 72% Jawzjan 0.05 1 1 0 100% Kabul 20 95 6 118 14% Kandahar 1222 2141 228 3199 28% Kapisa 6 21 3 0 100% Kunar 103 1124 58 18 85% Laghman 26 106 7 0 100% Nangarhar 26 227 18 7 79% Nimroz 113 199 16 377 23% Nuristan 3 28 1 0 87% Uruzgan 113 221 21 636 15% Zabul 0.14 2 1 0 100% Grand Total 4,306 8,676 763 6,749 39%

Although the highest eradication was reported in Hilmand (1,416 ha), this amount becomes almost negligible considering the amount of poppy cultivation in this province (103,590 ha). Eradication in Kandahar (1,222 ha) was proportionally higher considering the total cultivation of 14,623 ha. Government officials in Kandahar also forced farmers to eradicate their poppy in the early stages of cultivation. Considering the low level of cultivation in 2008, eradication efforts in Badakhshan (714 ha), Hirat (322 ha) and Kunar (103 ha) provinces can be considered successful. In contrast only 9 ha of poppy fields were eradicated in despite of the high amount of poppy cultivation in 2008.

21 Eradication area within/outside target zones GLE eradication target zones were defined by MCN for the five highest opium poppy cultivating provinces (Farah, Hilmand, Kandahar, Nimroz and Uruzgan). Target zones are shown in the maps provided at the end of this report. Table 2 shows the total area eradicated within and outside the eradication target zones in each province.

Table 11: Area within/outside target zones (ha) 2008 Province Area within eradication Area outside eradication Total eradication verified target zone (ha) target zone (ha) (ha)

Farah 5 4 9

Hilmand 780 636 1,416

Kandahar 97 1,125 1,222

Nimroz 106 7 113

Uruzgan 54 60 113

Grand Total 1,042 1,832 2,873

Figure 10: Percentage of total eradication (GLE and PEF) by province 2008

Hilmand 26% 20% Kandahar 22% Badakhshan 14 % Hirat 6% Uruzgan 2% Nimroz 2% Kunar 2% Baghlan 2% Ghor 1% Nangarhar 0.5%

Laghman 0.5%

Kabul 0.4% Farah 0.2% Kapisa 1% 0.1% Nuristan 0.05% Zabul 0.003%

Jawzjan 0.001%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Percentage of total eradication

GLE PEF

22 Timing and percentage of eradication by month Figure 14 shows timing and proportions of total governor-led eradication each month. Ninety one per cent of eradication was carried out in three months from February 2008 to April 2008. The amount of eradication was negligible between October (planting time) and January.

Figure 11: Total area eradicated each month, shown as percentage

45.0% 41% 40.0%

35.0%

30.0% 27%

25.0% 23%

20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5% 5.0% 4%

0.4% 1% 0.0% January February March April May June July

Cannabis cultivation is becoming as lucrative as opium poppy In 2008, cannabis cultivation was reported in 14 provinces namely Badakhshan, Badghis, Baghlan, Bamyan, Day Kundi, Farah, Hilmand, Kandahar, Khost, Kunduz, Laghman, Nangarhar, Uruzgan and Zabul. The highest cultivation was reported in Uruzgan, followed by Kandahar, Hilmand and Nangarhar. The average price of cannabis at the end of July was USD$ 56/kg. Cannabis prices have been increasing in the last two years and reached US$ 56/kg in July 2008. Farmers growing cannabis may earn the same net income per hectare as farmers who grow opium, or even more, because cultivating cannabis is less labour intensive than opium.

Though the opium survey does gather some data on cannabis cultivation, no estimates can be provided in this preliminary report. It is clear, however, that cultivating cannabis is becoming increasigly lucrative. When this is considered in conjuction with the fact that all the emphasis is put on reducing opium, there is a great risk of farmers switching to cannabis.

23

35°N 30°N 2006 2007 2008 International boundaries Provincial boundaries Cultivation Year

km 200 Kunar 100 Badakhshan 50 Nuristan Nangarhar Geographic projection: WGS 84 70°E 70°E 0 200 Laghman Khost Kapisa Takhar Panjshir Kabul Paktya Logar Kunduz Paktika Baghlan Parwan Wardak

Ghazni 2,335 Samangan

Bamyan Balkh

2273 Zabul UZBEKISTAN

9,939 14,623 Sari Pul Uruzgan Day Kundi Jawzjan

Kandahar 291 65°E 65°E Ghor

Faryab

103,590 587 Hilmand

Badghis

15,010

6,203 TURKMENISTAN 266 Farah Nimroz Hirat

IRAN

35°N 30°N Source: Government of Afghanistan - NationalNote: monitoring The system boundaries implemented and by names UNODC shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, 2006-2008

24

35°N 30°N 75°E 75°E TAJIKISTAN Main cities Provincial boundaries Opium poppy cultivation (ha) by province International boundaries Legend km Kunar 290 Fayzabad Jalalabad Badakhshan 100 200 Nuristan PAKISTAN 50 Nangarhar 425 Laghman 70°E 70°E Khost Geographic projection: WGS 84 0 200 436 310 Ta k h a r Panjshir Kapisa Kabul Paktya Kabul Logar 475 Baghlan Paktika Kunduz Parwan Wardak Ghazni Samangan Mazari Sharif Bamyan Balkh 2,335 Zabul UZBEKISTAN Uruzgan 2,273 Day Kundi Sari Pul 9,939 Kandahar Jawzjan 14,623 Kandahar 65°E 65°E 291 Faryab Ghor Hilmand 103,590 587 Badghis Farah Nimroz Hirat 15,010 6,203 TURKMENISTAN 266 Farah Hirat

IRAN

35°N 30°N Opium Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan, 2008 (at province level) Source: Government of Afghanistan - NationalNote: monitoring The system boundaries implemented and by names UNODC shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

25

35°N 30°N 75°E 75°E Poppy free or Strong decrease (-100% to -50%) Decrease (-49% to -11%) Stable (-10% to 10%) Increase (11% to 50%) Main cities Provincial boundaries International boundaries Cultivation change (%) TAJIKISTAN km Kunar Fayzabad Jalalabad Badakhshan Nuristan Nangarhar 100 Laghman 70°E 70°E Khost 50 Kapisa Panjshir Takhar Kabul Paktya 0 200 Geographic projection: WGS 84 Kabul Logar Baghlan Parwan PAKISTAN Paktika Kunduz Wardak Ghazni Samangan Mazari Sharif Balkh Bamyan Zabul UZBEKISTAN Kandahar Kandahar Day Kundi Sari Pul Jawzjan Uruzgan 65°E 65°E Faryab Ghor Hilmand Badghis Farah Hirat Hirat Nimroz Farah TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

35°N 30°N ource: Government of Afghanistan - National monitoring system implemented by UNODC Opium poppy cultivation change in Afghanistan (by province), 2007 - 2008 Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. S

26

35°N 30°N 75°E 75°E Opium production (metric tons) Main cities Provincial boundaries International boundaries TAJIKISTAN km Kunar 11 6 Fayzabad Jalalabad Badakhshan 100 Nuristan Nangarhar 17 Laghman 70°E 70°E 50 Khost 17 Kabul 0 200 Panjshir Geographic projection: WGS 84 Takhar Kapisa Paktya 11 Kabul Logar 26 PAKISTAN Parwan Baghlan Paktika Kunduz Wardak Ghazni Samangan Mazari Sharif 122 Balkh Bamyan Zabul UZBEKISTAN 518 Uruzgan 118 Day Kundi Kandahar Sari Pul Jawzjan Kandahar 762 65°E 65°E 16 Faryab Ghor Hilmand 5,397 17 Badghis Farah Hirat Nimroz Hirat 446 Farah 184 8 TURKMENISTAN

IRAN

35°N 30°N ote: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. ource: Government of Afghanistan - National monitoring system implemented by UNODC Opium production in Afghanistan by province (mt), 2008 S N

27 35°N 30°N

INDIA INDIA 20581 International boundaries Provincial boundaries Eastern Cultivation (ha) North Eastern Production (mt) Legend

TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN

1,151

200

6 45 Km Eastern North-eastern PAKISTAN PAKISTAN

70°E 70°E

50 310 0100200

Geographic projection, Datum WGS 84 11

Central 766 Northern

2008 42 UZBEKISTAN UZBEKISTAN an, t s i Southern an h

g Af 6,917 n i 65°E 65°E on

ti uc 132,760 d pro

d on an 655 Western ti va

lti 22,066 TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN um poppy cu i op l IRAN IRAN ona i eg 35°N 30°N Source: Government ofNote: Afghanistan The - boundaries National and monitoring names system shown implemented and the by designations UNODC used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. R

28 Kunar Badakhshan Nuristan Laghman Nangarhar Khost Kapisa Opium poppy cultivation (ha) by province Badakhshan Extreme Risk High Risk Medium Risk Low Risk 2008 District boundaries Provincial boundaries International boundaries Panjshir 7- Paktya Logar Security Kabul 200 Parwan Paktika TAJIKISTAN Baghlan Wardak 290 Ghazni 200 Kunar Bamyan Samangan Zabul Day Kundi 425 Nuristan Nangarhar km Laghman 436 Panjshir Khost Takhar 310 Kapisa Paktya 475 ghanistan by province, Kabul f Logar Baghlan Parwan Paktika Wardak Kunduz 65 Ghazni Samangan PA KISTA N Geographic projection: WGS 84 Balkh 0130260 2,335 Bamyan Zabul UZBEKISTAN 2,273 9,939 Day Kundi Sari Pul Jawzjan Uruzgan 14,623 Kandahar 291 Faryab Ghor and opium poppy cultivation in A Hilmand Badghis 103,590 587 2008) Farah June Nimroz 12 15,010 Hirat 6,203 266 TURKMENISTAN as at ( IRAN ecurity map ote: The boundries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations ource security map: UNDSS ource cultivation :Government of Afghanistan - National monitoring system implemented by UNODC S S S N

29 INDIA INDIA No eradication Negligible 11 - 150 151 - 1000 1001 - 2000 >2000 Main cities Province bounaries International Boundaries TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN Legend Eradication (ha) Peshwar Nuristan Kunar Fayz Abad Badakhshan Nangarhar Laghman Jalalabad PAKISTAN Khost PAKISTAN 50 Panjshir Takhar Kapisa Kilometers Kabul 0 100 Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84 Paktya Logar Baghlan Kunduz Paktika Parwan Wardak Ghazni Samangan Quetta Mazar-E-Sharif UZBEKISTAN Zabul UZBEKISTAN Balkh Bamyan Uruzgan Sari Pul Day Kundi Jawzjan Kandahar Ghor Faryab Hilmand Badghis Farah TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN Hirat Nimroz IRAN IRAN Afghanistan: Verified GLE and PEF in 2008 (by province) Source: Government ofNote: Afghanistan The - boundaries National and monitoring names system shown implemented and the by designations UNODC used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

30 Kunar Kunar INDIA Kunar Kunar Nuristan Kunar Kunar Kunar Kunar Nuristan Nangarhar Kunar Kunar Nangarhar Nangarhar Nangarhar Kunar Kunar Nangarhar Nangarhar Kunar Kunar Kunar Badakhshan Nangarhar Nangarhar Nuristan Kunar Nangarhar Badakhshan Nangarhar Badakhshan nentoa boundaries International boundaries Provincial District boundaries No data Negligible 11 - 200 201 - 500 501 - 750 >750 Main cities Nangarhar Nangarhar Nangarhar Nuristan Nangarhar Laghman Nangarhar Nuristan Nangarhar Nuristan Nuristan Nangarhar Nangarhar Eradication (ha) Nuristan Khost Laghman Nangarhar Khost Laghman Laghman Laghman TAJIKISTAN Laghman Paktya Nangarhar Panjshir Nangarhar Panjshir Paktya Kapisa Paktya Paktya Panjshir Nangarhar Nari Logar Panjshir Kapisa Kabul Shaygal wa Shiltan Paktya Kapisa Dangam Asadabad Ishkashim Zebak Kamdesh Sirkanay Kabul Kapisa Khas Kunar Paktya Parwan Panjshir Bargi Mat al Narang Darwazi Bala Bar Kunar Kabul Paktya Shuhada Kot Waygal Parwan Kapisa Logar Lal Pur Kapisa Kohistan Baghlan Warduj Panjshir Yamgan (Girwan) Baharak Kunar Dur Baba Nurgal Kabul Logar Pech Logar Kabul Panjshir Logar Paktya Gosht a Jurm Khash Darwaz Wa ma Kuf Ab Ac hin Ragh Kama Rodat Yaftali Sufla Fayzabad Mihtarlam Yaw an Kuran Wa Munjan Darayim Nuristan Alingar Ti s h ka n Nuristan Khwahan Du Ab Argo Mandol Te r e Za yi Shiki Dih Bala Nangarhar Arghanj Khwa Jaji Maydan Wa r sa j Kis him Bak Paryan Qarghayi Alishing Laghman Gurbuz Nurgaram Dara Farkhar Rustaq Chah Ab Khost Sabari Ta ni Khogyani Lija Mangal Jaji Hisarak Az ra Kalafgan Surobi Ta ga b Shahri Buzurg Nijrab Puli Hisar Chal Yangi Qala Panjshir Sayid Karam Dih Sabz Spera Takhar Unaba Gayan Kapisa Darqad Dashti Qala Khushi Firing Wa Gharu Khost Wa Firing Guzargahi Nur Andarab Jadran Ziruk Kohi Safi Khwaja Ghar Bangi Barmal Urgun Gardez Archi Ishkamish Paktya Salang Burka Khaki Jabbar Gomal Sarobi Logar Kunduz Kabul Nahrin Istalif Zurmat Dih Salah Aliabad Khinjan Muhammad Agha Sar H aw za Charkh Baghlan Omna Parwan Kharwar Nirkh Khwaja Bahawuddin Wor Mamay Sharan Imam Sahib Ghorband Dushi Dih Yak Saydabad Puli Khumri Paktika Jalrez Kunduz Chak Ghazni Andar Baghlani Jadid Chahar Dara Tu r wo Giro Surkhi Parsa Zarghun Shahr Shekh Ali Wardak Ta l a Wa B ar f a k Jaghatu Dila Wa za Kh w a Dahana-I-Ghori Ab Band Qala-I-Zal Rashidan Waghaz Shibar Aybak Day Mirdad Qarabagh Bamy an Hazrati Sultan Khulm Nawa Muqur Nawur Ghazni Feroz Nakhchir Gelan Ruyi Du Ab Sayghan Hisa-I- Awal Bihsud Kaldar Markazi Bihsud Shamulzayi Kahmard Atghar Jaghuri Samangan Shahjoy Marmul Naw Bahar Malistan PAKISTAN Balkh Bamyan Maruf Chahar Kint Nahri Shahi Ajrist an Panjab Dara-I- Sufi PayinKhuramWa Sarbagh Dara-I- Sufi Bala Qalat Miramor Wa r a s Shinkay Balkh Sholgara Arghandab UZBEKISTAN Kishindih Zabul Zari Shortepa Daychopan Kakar (Khak-e Afghan) Chimtal Yak awlang Dawlatabad Mizan Shahristan Khas Uruzgan Balkhab Fayzabad Arghistan Mardyan Gosfandi Nili Ishtarlay Chora Sozm a Qala Tarnak Wa Jaldak Gizab Sangcharak Lal Wa Sarjangal Aqcha Qarqin Day Kundi Sari Pul Spin Boldak Miya Nishin Shorabak Mingajik Shah Wali Kot Ti r i n K o t Sari Pul Kit i Nesh Jawzjan Uruzgan Khaniqa Sangi Takht Khadir Shibirghan Khamyab Kohistanat Sayy ad Daman Gurziwan Arghandab Khakrez Kajran Kandahar (Dand) Zhari Dihrawud Khwaja Du Koh Shahidi Hassas Darzab Ghorak Reg Maymana Kandahar Bilchiragh Pasaband Kajaki Panjwayi Dawlatabad Qaramqol Maywand Sangin Dawlat Yar Khani Chahar Bagh Andkhoy Kohistan Baghran Du Layna Shirin Tagab Khwaja Sabz Qurghan Chahar Bolak Musa Qala Faryab Pasht un Kot Nahri Sarraj Lashk ar Gah Ghor Naw Zad Taywara Jawand Qays ar Almar Shahrak Pur C haman Nawa-i-Barakzayi Washer Garmser (Hazarjuft) Tulak Chishti Sharif Charsada Nad Ali Ghormach Gulistan Saghar Hilmand system implemented by UNODC Badghis Qadis Murghab e Ka Nishin) (Khan Reg Farsi Obe Muqur Dishu (Registan) Bakw a Qala-I-Naw Khash Rod Ab Kamari Karukh Bala Buluk Kushki Kuhna Chakhansur Pashtun Zarghun TURKMENISTAN Shindand Farah Farah Injil Kushk Hirat Nimroz Guzara Hirat Adraskan Zaranj Khaki Safed Kang Chahar Burja Pusht Rod Zinda Jan Gulran Qala-I-Kah Kohsan Shib Koh Anar Dara Lash Wa Juwayn Ghoryan IRAN fghanistan: Verified GLE and PEF Eradication in 2008 (by district) Source: Government of Afghanistan - National monitoring Note: The boundaries and names shown and the used designations on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. A

31 35°N 30°N INDIA INDIA Wakhan Provincial boundaries GLE- Governor led eradication Verified eradication location (GLE) International boundaries District boundaries Eradication target zone (MCN-SMTV) TAJIKISTAN TAJIKISTAN Legend Bar Kunar Nari Dangam Ishkashim Sirkanay Zebak Kamdes h Khas Kunar Dur Baba Asadabad Bargi Matal Km Waygal Shuhada Shighnan awz Bala Darwazi Kot La l Pu r Baharak Warduj Yamgan (Girwan) Pech Jurm Goshta Khash Kunar Darwaz Kuz Kunar Wama Kuf A b Ac hi n Ragh Kama Rodat Fayzabad Yawan KuranWaMunjan Darayim Nuristan Badakhshan Nuristan Khwahan Ti sh k a n Argo Mandol Du Ab Te r e Z a yi Shi ki Dih Bala Jaji Maydan Nangarhar Arghanj Khwa PAKISTAN Warsaj PAKISTAN Ki shi m Bak Pary an Khogyani Sherzad Qarghayi Gurbuz 70°E 70°E Laghman Sabari 50 Rustaq Farkhar Dara Chah Ab Tani Khost Jaji Hisarak Az ra Surobi Kalafgan Tagab Shahri Buzurg Nijrab Chal Pul i Hi sar 0 100 200 Yangi Qala Andarab Gayan Unaba Spera Panjsher Takhar Kapisa Darqad Ishkamish uagh Nur Guzargahi Wa Firing Khost Jadran Gardez egahcpoeto,DtmWGS 84 Datum projection, Geographic Paktya Khwaja G har Zir uk Barmal Urgun Kohi Safi Bangi Arc hi Paghman Sal ang Burk a Kunduz Sarobi Dashti Qala Khaki Jabbar Kabul Nahrin Logar Zurmat Pul i Al am Charkh Aliabad Khinjan Nirkh Sar Hawz a Gomal Omna Baghlan Sharan Parwan Imam Sahib Wor Mamay Dushi Ghorband Dahana-I-Ghori Dih Yak Kharwar Saydabad Jalr ez Paktika Chak Pul i K humri Kunduz Andar Chahar Dara ahaiJadid Baghlani Tu r w o Gir o Surkhi Parsa Zarghun Shahr Ta la Wa B a r f a k Qala-I- Zal Dila Wardak Jaghatu Shekh Ali Waza K hwa Ab B and Rashidan Shi bar Waghaz Aybak Day Mirdad Qarabagh Hazrati Sultan Nawa Khulm Muqur Bamyan Nawur Sayghan Gha zni Ruyi Du Ab Gelan Shamulzayi Khuram Wa Sarbagh Ma rm u l Hisa-I-AwalBihsud Kal dar Ma rk a zi Bi h su d Kahmard Atghar Jaghuri Samangan Shahjoy Naw Bahar Ma l is tan Ma ru f Chahar Kint Panjab Balkh Nahri Shahi Aj ri stan Dara-I- Sufi Payin Waras Shi nk ay Mi ra m o r Qalat Bamyan 2008 Dara-I- Sufi Bala Bal kh Sholgara Shortepa Ki shi ndi h Yakawlang Arghandab Zabul Zari UZBEKISTAN UZBEKISTAN Chimtal Daychopan Kakar Afghan) (Khak-e Dawlatabad Balkhab on, Khas Uruzgan Mi za n Arghistan Shahristan Fayzabad Gosfandi ti Ishtarlay Nili Giz ab Ma rd y a n Sozma Qal a ankWaTarnak Jaldak Chora Sangcharak Lal Wa Sarjangal Aqcha Spin Boldak Qarqin ca Daykundi Sari Pul Shorabak Mi ya Ni shin Mingajik di Shah Wali Kot Ti r i n Ko t Sari Pul Ki ti Nesh Khadir Jawzjan Daman Kohistanat Sangi Takht Khamyab Sayy ad Uruzgan Shibirghan Gurz iwan era Arghandab Khakrez Kaj ran adhr(Dand) Kandahar Chaghcharan Zhari Dihrawud Khwaja Du Koh d Darzab Shahidi Hassas Ghorak Kandahar Reg e Maymana l Bilchiragh Kaj ak i Pasaband 65°E 65°E Qaramqol Ma y wan d Dawlat Yar Sangin Dawlatabad Khani Chahar Bagh Andkhoy Baghran Kohistan Du Layna Panjwayi Faryab Shirin Tagab Qurghan Khwaja S abz Mu s a Q a la Pashtun Kot Nahri Sarraj La s h ka r Ga h Ta yw a r a Naw Zad Jawand Gho r Qays ar Shahrak Al mar overnor- Nawa-i-Barakzayi Washer fG Nad Ali Hilmand Garmser ( Hazarj uft) Pur Chaman Tu l a k Chishti Sharif Charsada Ghormach Gulistan Saghar Qadis Badghis Murghab Reg (Khan Nishin) Farsi Obe ons o Muqur ti Bakwa Dishu (Registan) Qala-I- Naw Ab K amari Khash Rod Karuk h oca Bal a B uluk Kushki Kuhna Pashtun Zarghun TURKMENISTAN TURKMENISTAN dl Shindand Chakhansur Farah Nimroz In j il Kushk e Hirat Guzara Pusht Rod Farah Hirat ifi Zaranj Khaki Safed Adras kan Kang Chahar Burja er Zinda Jan V Gulr an Kohsan Qala-I- Kah an: Shi b K oh t Anar Dara Las h Wa Juwayn Ghoryan s i an h IRAN IRAN g 35°N 30°N Af Source: MCN - UNODCNote: The Afghanistan boundaries Eradication and Survey names 2008 shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

32