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Home , Agdam District, Fuzuli District, Jabrayil District, Sumgait, Tartar (river)

OCTOBER-2020

HBULLETII GHL I GHT OF THE FORE I G N P O L I CY OF REPUBLNI C OF AZERBA I JAN

Table of contents

I. The military confrontation between and 2

II. The failure of ceasefire agreements and Armenia’s maximalist position 11

III. Armenia continues to commit war crimes by targeting civilians 14

IV. Economic implications of Azerbaijan-Armenia military confrontation for Armenia 16

V. Propaganda and false narratives about the conflict 17

I. The military confrontation Iranian-Azerbaijani border” and would soon between Azerbaijan and Armenia place its border troops on its border with in the territories retaken from Armenian On In October, the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan forces. On October 7, the Ministry of Foreign continued its counteroffensive operations Affairs of Azerbaijan reported that Armenia along the entire front line, inflicting targeted -Tbilisi- oil pipeline. devastating blows on the Armenian Armed Forces. While Armenian Prime Minister vowed Addressing the nation live on TV on 9 October, to 'fight for every millimeter' of occupied President Ilham announced the territories of Azerbaijan, from the start of the liberation of a number of occupied Azerbaijani military counter-offensive and amid settlements in Nagorno-. “The international calls on all sides for de-escalation Azerbaijani Army liberated Hadrut, as well as and ceasefire, President has said the villages of Cayli, Yuxari Guzlak, Gorazilli, that Armenian troops' withdrawal from Qislaq, Qaracali, Afandilar, Suleymanli and Azerbaijani lands is the only way to end the Sur,” President Ilham Aliyev said, defining the military operations. At a meeting with a group ongoing developments in the Karabakh front of wounded soldiers under medical treatment as a historic victory. “The liberation of these at the Central Military Clinical Hospital of the villages and the Hadrut settlement is our Defence Ministry in Baku in early October, historic victory. Azerbaijan is liberating President Ilham Aliyev pointed out that “for 30 occupied territories,” President Ilham Aliyev years, we have been patiently waiting for a noted. President Ilham Aliyev underlined that peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. the military operations were proceeding We were told to be patient. However, according to the plan based on modern Armenia's new prime minister put forward military principles. Today, the Armed Forces of seven conditions to us, which we rejected as Azerbaijan have full advantage on the unacceptable. I have one demand - battlefield - both in terms of logistical support unconditional and complete liberation of the and in terms of combat readiness. occupied territories. If it is fulfilled, the Detailing the course of the military operations, hostilities will be suspended, peace will be President Ilham Aliyev said that “in some restored, and bloodshed will stop.” In early cases, it took us several days to overcome October, the Azerbaijani Army liberated the some of the engineering fortifications. At the strategic town of on the border with same time, we do everything in such a way as Iran, 16 villages of , and several to minimize losses. Therefore, in some cases, villages of adjacent District. The village we strengthened our positions in different of in the north of Karabakh was also directions, and then we prepared for a new liberated. operation to have the maximum result with In early October Azerbaijan regained control minimum losses”. over its Fuzuli and Jabrayil districts adjacent to President Ilham Aliyev repeatedly stressed Iran. This part of the country's border with Iran that the responsibility for the breakdown of had not been under Azerbaijan's control since the negotiations, as well as for the emergence 1993. President Ilham Aliyev told Iranian of an armed confrontation, rested entirely counterpart Hassan Rouhani in a phone with the leadership of Armenia, pointed out conversation on 6 October that Azerbaijan had that Armenia, by taking steps aimed at “regained control over a part of the occupied disrupting the negotiating process, delivered a 3

serious blow to this process. The provocative report that tens of thousands of settlers have statements and other measures by Armenia moved into the occupied territories of seriously disrupted the negotiating process Azerbaijan, including the districts of , and drove it into a dead end. Over the past two , and Jabrail adjacent to the years, the current military and political Nagorno-Karabakh region, in an organized leadership of Armenia purposefully manner with the purpose of annexing these aggravated the situation around the conflict, territories. In fact, two missions to the including numerous practical steps enhancing occupied Azerbaijani territories conducted by the illegal consequences of the Armenian the OSCE in 2005 and 2010 found evidence of aggression against Azerbaijan and the ongoing the presence of Armenian settlers in the military occupation of the internationally occupied territories. The devastating war in recognized territories of Azerbaijan. The most Syria has also significantly contributed to this striking examples of this have been the phrase process. Many of the more than 15,000 Syrian "Karabakh is Armenia", the military concept who could not find a home in the called "a new war for new territories", the largest Armenian have settled in military provocation in the direction of Tovuz neighbouring Nagorno-Karabakh. The latest on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border in July wave of the policy of illegal resettlement is 2020, and the measures aimed at populating directly linked to a shocking explosion the occupied territories with Lebanese and occurred in Beirut on August 4, 2020, after other ethnically Armenians from the Middle which the separatist authorities of Nagorno- East. Karabakh announced that they were ready to As Dr Gulshan Pashayeva, a board member at receive about 100 to 150 families of Armenian the Center of Analysis of International origin from Lebanon and envisaged providing Relations, pointed out “it is a well-known fact 25 million drams (about $51,000) to the Armenian community of Lebanon from their that illegal resettlement is a gross violation of the norms and principles of international reserve funds. On September 10, videos have humanitarian law and constitutes a war crime. been distributed on social media Both Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva demonstrating the resettlement of the first Convention and Article 82 of the Rome Statute Armenian family from Lebanon to , an of the International Criminal Court deal with Azerbaijani town with significant cultural and this specific issue. Thus, one would expect that emotional meaning for ”. the international system would be taking In a televised address to the nation on 4 practical steps to hold accountable the states October, President Ilham Aliyev said that “he that are carrying out policies of illegal [Armenian Prime Minister ] resettlement. Unfortunately, this is not always sets seven conditions for us. Who are you to the case”. put forward conditions?! Now I will see what Dr Gulshan Pashayeva also noted that “after conditions you will set, begging on your knees the ceasefire, reached in 1994, illegal for the ceasefire to be restored. The ceasefire, resettlement became one of the most at the request of the Armenian prime minister, important subjects for Armenia, for the was kept restored for two years”. Recalling separatist regime that Armenia created in that the Armenian prime minister asked him Nagorno-Karabakh, and for the Armenian for a pause, President Ilham Aliyev pointed out diaspora. Sources, including Armenian ones, that "he asked me, saying that the domestic

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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situation was difficult, as they pressured him “the attack by the Armenian Armed Forces on from all sides. ‘Give me some time, I will Azerbaijan on 27 September is another step in resolve this issue, I came up with new ideas, I the destructive policy pursued with the aim of crossed out everything that was in the past. escalating tensions. As a sovereign state, Give me the opportunity, give me some time,’ Azerbaijan has taken appropriate steps within [he asked]. I said OK. And what happened?” the frameworks of the right to self-defence in President added: "A year later, he makes a accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter. speech and says 'Karabakh is Armenia'. Let him As a result, part of Azerbaijani territories was say 'Karabakh is Armenia' now,” adding that liberated from the Armenian occupation.” "phone calls I receive and the conversations “The reluctance of the Armenian leadership to during them are of course confidential. And comply with the norms and principles of now, in some cases, they ask me: What are international law do not contribute to the your conditions? I have one condition: Let normalization of relations between the two them leave our lands, let them leave, and the countries. It is impossible to talk about the confrontation will stop. However, not in establishment of normal relations between words, but in deeds. Let him say: I recognize two states, if one of them puts forward the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, as it is territorial claims to the other, invades its enshrined in the basic principles”. President territory and occupies its lands," Bayramov Ilham Aliyev went further, adding: “Let him added. say: I will withdraw the troops from the occupied territories, as enshrined in the basic In an interview with the Russian RBC TV on 11 principles. Let him ask for forgiveness from the October, President Ilham Aliyev said that Azerbaijani people and say that Karabakh is had "a whole lot of instruments" to not Armenia. The last condition: Let them give influence Armenia. “I am convinced that in a timetable, let them give us a schedule for the case Russia insists, taking account of the fact withdrawal of the Armenian Armed Forces that we have changed the status quo and have from the occupied territories”. broken the line of contact, and I believe that Yerevan has sobered up, undoubtedly, Russia As Vasif Huseynov, a senior advisor at the has a whole lot of instruments to convince Center of Analysis of International Relations, Armenia within a short period of time that the pointed out “the growingly populist and only way of this situation... is to reach a nationalistic policies of the Armenian Prime solution with Azerbaijan,” President Ilham Minister Nikol Pashinyan who came to power Aliyev said. following the Velvet Revolution of Armenia in mid-2018 dramatically radicalized his society In an interview with Turkish Haber Global TV and militarized its agenda. Despite the fact channel on 12 October, President Ilham Aliyev that Pashinyan promised to solve the Armenia reiterated once again that Azerbaijan has – Azerbaijan conflict soon after he took the changed the status quo. "The status quo is premiership and initiated secret meetings with gone. The settlements in Agdara, Fuzuli, the Azerbaijani government towards this goal, Cabrayil, and Hadrut districts have already he has abandoned these initiatives been liberated. What kind of status quo can we immediately after having consolidated his grip talk about? There can be no question. Contact of power in the country”. As it was pointed out line? There is no contact line! … We broke by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, through it in several places - from the north, from the south, and then from the east. What

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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line of contact can we talk about? It is not completely insolent. See what Pashinyan and there," President Ilham Aliyev concluded and his defence minister said. The defence minister pointed out that the new realities emerged said that we would wage a new war against after 27 September and Armenia should Azerbaijan, a new war for new lands. This was accept it. an open threat to us. Pashinyan said ‘Karabakh On October 15, US Secretary of State Mike is Armenia. Period!’ That is, not an inch of land Pompeo told the Erick Erickson Show on WSB will be returned to us. How can this conflict be Atlanta that “we're hopeful that the resolved peacefully in this case? I said that we Armenians will be able to defend against what are now in the process of resolving this issue the Azerbaijanis are doing, and that they will militarily,” President Ilham Aliyev added. all, before that takes place, get the ceasefire President Ilham Aliyev also pointed out that right, and then sit down at the table and try the military advance would go ahead, until the opposite side sits down at the negotiating and sort through this - that is - what is a truly historic and complicated problem set”. table. Commenting on -Azerbaijan Azerbaijan criticized US Secretary of State relationship, President Ilham Aliyev stated that Mike Pompeo's remarks on the Nagorno- “Azerbaijan and Turkey cooperate actively and Karabakh conflict. “The Azerbaijani side thinks fruitfully in the military sphere. In addition, that the opinion voiced by the US Secretary of there is a mutual assistance agreement. This is State is not in line with numerous official our right and if necessary, if there is a big statements the US government made earlier threat to Azerbaijan, we will use this about this conflict. This opinion also does not opportunity, because Turkey is our ally”. befit the US status as a co-chair of the OSCE On October 17, the third major strike carried Minsk Group," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs's out against Ganja since September 27. The press service said on 16 October. attack left 14 civilians killed and around 50 In his interview to Turkey's NTV news channel wounded. In his address to the nation on on 15 October, President Ilham Aliyev noted October 17, President Ilham Aliyev announced that both military and peaceful ways were the that the Azerbaijani Army retook seven villages major keys to ensure the country's territorial of and the town of Fuzuli. The integrity and bring about a lasting solution to president further added that the battle for the the conflict. “No result has been achieved over was difficult. “The battle for Fuzuli was these 30 years. For 30 years, using this hard. Time will pass and this battle will be ceasefire regime, Armenia has built powerful described in books and manuals. These were engineering and fortification structures on the real battles that required a lot of occupied lands. Today, thanks to the professionalism, skills, courage, and professionalism and courage of the Azerbaijani dedication. During these 30 years, the enemy Army, we are breaking through these built such strong fortifications on the line of fortifications. For 30 years, Armenia has contact that some believed that it was strived not for peace, but for the permanent impossible to liberate the city of Fuzuli from preservation of these lands under occupation. occupation and even the most famous military If you strive for peace, why are you building experts were of the opinion that the capture of these fortifications in Fuzuli, in Cabrayil or in Fuzuli and its liberation from occupation might directions?” President Ilham Aliyev take months, and it was a big question said. “The leadership of Armenia has become whether this operation would be successful or

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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not. However, the Azerbaijani Army coped missiles delivered via civilian airlines under the with this honorable mission, and in a short guise of humanitarian aid. time, most of the villages and the city of Fuzuli At the same time, the Armed Forces of in Fuzuli District were liberated from the Azerbaijan continued their advance along the enemy,” President Ilham Aliyev noted. Iranian border in the Armenian-occupied Commenting on the third shelling of Ganja, territories south of Nagorno-Karabakh. They which left 14 civilians, including kids and erected the flag of Azerbaijan at the elderly people, killed, President Ilham Aliyev Khodaafarin bridge on the Araxes River, a site noted that "this is a crime against humanity. If occupied by Armenian forces since the early the international community does not want to 1990s. bring Armenia to justice for the crimes On October 18, Armenian armed forces committed, just as no one has brought them to targeted crude oil and condensate export justice for the genocide, we will bring pipelines in Azerbaijan's Xizi District. The air- them to justice ourselves. We will punish them defence system intercepted the missile and ourselves, and our punishment will be just. part of the explosive elements of the missile They deserve the heaviest punishment. The were scattered in an area which is 250 meters military-political leadership of Armenia are away from a section of the Baku-Novorossiysk criminals, and we will punish these criminals”. oil pipeline, which is of strategic importance Commenting on the shelling of Ganja and for Azerbaijani-Russian economic cooperation. international indifference, Hikmat Hajiyev, Baku also asked Moscow to look into the issue Assistant to the President of the Republic of of arms smuggling from Russia to Armenia Azerbaijan on Foreign Policy Issues and Head during the ongoing war. In an interview with of Foreign Policy Affairs Department of the Russian state-owned TASS news agency on 19 Presidential Administration, said that "the October, President Ilham Aliyev noted that absence of political and diplomatic pressure on “we have informed the Russian side of our Armenia and the fact that its actions are not assumptions that these are being smuggled. condemned encourages Armenia to commit Because it is difficult for us to believe that new crimes”. Russia, which is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk In October, Armenia also started illegally Group and a country that ought to remain importing weapons from all over the world neutral, just like France and the USA, could be under the guise of humanitarian aid. arming the Armenian side during the active Azerbaijan appealed to the International Civil phase of the conflict. According to information Aviation Organisation to investigate reported available to us, major Russian businessmen of cases of arms deliveries to Armenia on civilian Armenian origin, as well as well-known arms aircraft. Hikmat Hajiyev tweeted on 10 traders who are under international sanctions, October that Atlantis Armenian Airlines are involved in this scheme. And the goal of transported missiles and rocket systems to our appeal to the Russian side was, among Armenia onboard civilian aircraft, noting that it others, for it to deal with this issue”. During the was "a blatant violation" of the Chicago interview, President Ilham Aliyev also gave Convention on International Civil Aviation and details of basic settlement principles. Among of International Civil Aviation Organisation the basic settlement principles developed by regulations. On 11 October, Hajiyev also noted the OSCE Minsk Group, President Ilham Aliyev that Armenia had received new Smerch listed the opening of communication lines

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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between Azerbaijan and its exclave community. We are not conducting any , as well as between Armenia and operation on the Armenian territory, we have Russia through Azerbaijan."At the same time, no such plans despite the fact that they the basic principles state that all bombed Ganja from Armenian territory twice. communication lines are to be opened, not We did not respond in kind. We reciprocated only the Lacin corridor [linking Armenia and on the battlefield”. Nagorno-Karabakh]. Communications are to President Ilham Aliyev also highlighted the fact be opened between Azerbaijan proper and that no country would ever recognize the Nakhchivan. The Armenian side was to provide occupational regime as an independent state. guarantees of security for this corridor. “No-one has recognized the self-styled Communications are to be opened on the Nagorno-Karabakh republic. They are now border between Armenia and Azerbaijan. trying hard, bending over backwards to have Armenia was supposed to have a free land world countries recognize the self-declared route to the territory of the Russian criminal entity. They have lost their minds, Federation, which it still currently has [through they do not understand that no-one will do Georgia], but it is much easier through that, they do not understand that any country Azerbaijan and it will not depend on weather which does so cannot be regarded as a friendly conditions, snowfall in the mountains and so country by Azerbaijan. Not just a friendly on,” President Ilham Aliyev added. country, we will cut off all ties with such a In a televised address to the nation on October country,” President Ilham Aliyev added. 20, President Ilham Aliyev reiterated his call on A possible recognition of the independence of Armenia to withdraw its troops from Nagorno- the occupational regime in Nagorno-Karabakh Karabakh and the surrounding territories and would be the final nail in the coffin of the said Azerbaijan was not planning any military current negotiating format for the settlement operation on Armenian territory. President of the conflict through the mediation of the Ilham Aliyev also pointed out that Azerbaijan OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. As Bayramov put was acting within international law, fighting it, "Such a decision would become the pinnacle exclusively within its own internationally of the irresponsible and adventurous policy of recognized territory. “The UN Security Council the Armenian leadership. By doing this, resolutions did not work. We have made major Armenia will finally violate international law, efforts, the UN General Assembly, Non- rejecting the entire body of traditions and Aligned Movement, Council of , foundations of international relations... Such a European Parliament, Islamic Cooperation decision by Armenia will inevitably lead to a Organisation and other organizations adopted new round of escalation of the conflict and the resolutions. An agreement signed between the deterioration of the situation in the region." European Union and us also supports the inviolability of our borders, our sovereignty During his address to the nation on October and our country's territorial integrity. That is 20, President Aliyev announced the liberation this is the basis for the settlement of this of the town of Zangilan, on the southern conflict,” the president said. President Ilham stretch of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border, Aliyev also pointed out that “Azerbaijan is and 24 villages in Fuzuli, Jabrayil, Xocavand carrying out the combat operation on its own and Zangilan districts. President Ilham Aliyev territory, as recognized by the international also said Azerbaijan had so far destroyed 241 Armenian tanks and captured 39; destroyed 50

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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infantry fighting vehicles and captured 24; sending weapons to Armenia?” President destroyed 17 self-prolled artillery guns and Ilham Aliyev said, adding that "if you want it to 198 cannon; destroyed 58 and captured 12 stop, stop supplying arms”. mortars; captured 25 grenade-launchers; and President Ilham Aliyev also criticized the OSCE destroyed 53 anti-tank weapons, 70 Grad Minsk Group co-chair countries for their guns, two Uragan multiple rocket launcher failure to put pressure on Armenia in order to systems, two volley-fire missile systems, one resolve the conflict. The Minsk Group co-chairs TOS gun, four S-300 anti-aircraft missile shared responsibility for the failure of the systems, three TOR anti-aircraft systems, peace talks held between Armenia and about 40 OSA anti-aircraft systems, five Kub Azerbaijan over the past 30 years. “What was and Kruq anti-aircraft missile systems, six the Minsk Group's activity about - did it put UAVs, two Elbrus operational tactical missile pressure on the occupier? No. Did it want to systems, one ballistic missile, one Tochka-U put pressure? No,” President Ilham Aliyev said. missile, eight electronic countermeasures and The Minsk Group co-chairs, and primarily 198 trucks. Fifteen of the trucks were full of Armenia, had been happy with the frozen state munitions. The army also captured 102 trucks. of the conflict and no country objected to On October 25, the 's illegal settlement policy in the Azerbaijan liberated the town of from occupied area, which was a violation of Armenian occupation. In his address to the international law. President Ilham Aliyev said nation on October 26, President Ilham Aliyev that what we are doing now is “carrying out said Baku is ready for a military-political UN Security Council resolutions [adopted back solution to resolve the conflict. “The military- in 1993 and calling for the immediate political solution must resolve the issue of withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from restoring Azerbaijan's territorial integrity,” occupied Azerbaijani territories] on our own, President Ilham Aliyev said. President Ilham whereas this must be the job of the UN Aliyev also reiterated that Azerbaijanis must Security Council itself”. The president also return to the lands of their ancestors and both pointed out that if the UN Security Council Azerbaijani and Armenian peoples should then permanent members and the Minsk Group co- learn to live side by side in Karabakh. President chairs have failed to enforce the law, let them Ilham Aliyev said that Armenian armed forces stand aside, let them not get in the way, had violated the cease-fire minutes after it adding that all the mediators' activities came into force at 08.00 local time on October currently aimed “to save Armenia, the 26, adding that “but still I have ordered the aggressor, the occupier”. "If you want to save Azerbaijani Army to show restraint, not to Armenia, tell it to leave our lands, to go away yield to provocation”. Furthermore, the immediately,” the president noted. “If not, we president underlined once more that the will go to the end, we will go to the end and conflict remaining in a frozen state cannot chase the enemy out, the way we are doing satisfy Azerbaijan. President Ilham Aliyev also now”. At the same time, President Ilham Aliyev stressed that weapons were being delivered to pointed out that “a mediator must be neutral, Armenia on a mass scale at a time when the if it is not, let them renounce their candidacy. Azerbaijani Army had defeated thoroughly its If a mediator is not neutral, they cannot be a armed forces in Karabakh. “Well, why mediator”. someone, who is calling for a cease-fire, is

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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As Dr. Esmira Jafarova, a board member at the of unsubstantiated accusations are made by Center of Analysis of International Relations, the co-chair countries. They must be pointed out, “although the OSCE possesses the impartial,” the president said. “We do not talk mechanisms to make a difference in the every day about how much weapons Russia is conflict resolution process, and its co-chairs supplying to Armenia. We are not saying that have been engaged with mediation and if not for external support, Armenia could not facilitation work, the present format does not have stayed on occupied territories for a single have the capacity and necessary tools to day. There is both political, military and moral support attaining a final and lasting peaceful support, and it is the countries that must solution to the conflict. Despite all the work remain impartial that are rendering this done so far, by extending the same treatment support”. to both states – one being the victim of As Dr Farid Shafiyev noted that “some news occupation, while the other is seeking to reports about the ongoing hostilities by outlets maintain its territorial acquisitions – the OSCE such as the BBC and Reuters contain runs the risk of failing this task and consigning unconfirmed sources about Syrian fighters in the entire South region to many Azerbaijan. During the previous major more years of instability. With matters outbreak of violence, in April 2016, Armenia remaining static in their present shape, the made claims about ISIS recruits in Azerbaijan. likelihood that the parties can achieve a Pashinyan himself voiced the information negotiated conflict resolution based on the about Muslim radicals walking in the streets of norms and principles of international law, as Baku and demanding the closure of stores well as the relevant UNSC resolutions, seems, selling alcohol. The term “fake news” gets unfortunately, rather meagre. Peace and thrown about casually these days, but in this reconciliation are long overdue in a region torn case, it is entirely appropriate. Despite being by conflict and mistrust. Security and fully debunked, parts of the Western media, in confidence-building are not delivered my view, having predisposed Orientalist automatically to those states in the most stereotypes against Azerbaijan, which eases affected parts of Europe upon their the lobbying efforts of Armenian membership in the OSCE. It takes hard work, ultranationalists. In fact, Azerbaijan, even with dedication and well thought-out strategies. its democracy deficit, is a country with strong The OSCE has a real chance to demonstrate secular traditions that has prosecuted Islamic that it can foster security and cooperation – radicals to the full extent of the law, the assets that its name stands for – in the imprisoned ISIS fighters, supported U.S. South Caucasus region. It is long overdue”. operations in and Iraq, and In an interview with Italian Rai-1 TV on 26 assisted Western intelligence agencies in October, President Ilham Aliyev said he eradicating terrorism. Frankly, today’s regretted that France and Russia, which are Azerbaijan is a Muslim country as much as The the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group that Netherlands is a Christian one. The Armenian mediates a settlement to the Nagorno- lobby groups in Washington, such as the Karabakh conflict, had levelled Armenian National Committee of America and unsubstantiated accusations against their recruits on the Capitol Hill, including Azerbaijan. “All these are an attempt to several sitting Congressmen and Senators, do besmirch Azerbaijan. I regret that these kinds a big disservice to U.S. national interests by

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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advancing the narrow xenophobic and refugees to their places of residence, where extremist agenda of one ethnic group”. they lived before the conflict. “We have In his interview with Italian Rai-1 TV on 26 practically completed the first stage, and if October, President Ilham Aliyev also pointed now Armenia expresses its adherence to the out that here had been no proof of Turkish basic principles, we will immediately talk about troops' involvement in the fighting. Turkish F- transferring Lacin and Kalbacar districts and 16 fighter jets had remained in Azerbaijan part of , which are under following joint military exercises held just occupation, to Azerbaijani control. Thus, to a before the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh certain extent, we will facilitate the tasks of the started. But they are not involved in the mediators, because one of the important combat. “But we are not asking how many points will be considered as implemented and Russian MiQ-29 or Su-30 fighter jets there are we will not have to wait for a certain second stage, as it should come immediately”. The on Armenian territory. We are not saying that Russia has a 5,000-strong military base in president added that Armenian troops must Gyumri, Armenia, and according to be pulled out of Kalbacar, Lacin, and a part of information available to us, supplies are being Agdam District, if the parties agreed to a delivered regularly to the Armenian armed political settlement. forces from there, and in contrast to what is In a comment on Armenia's claims to hit being said about us, these are facts. Therefore, Azerbaijan's major Sangachal oil terminal I suggest that those who want to accuse us, outside Baku, President Ilham Aliyev said that before making hasty conclusions based on “if Armenia succeeds in realising what they false information, should look at themselves promised, namely to bomb the Sangachal first,” President Ilham Aliyev added. Speaking terminal, or our oil and gas pipelines, of of Turkish F-16 fighter jets in Azerbaijan in a course, this will be fraught with risks”. The televised address to the nation on 26 October, Western world would condemn Armenia, President Aliyev reiterated once more that because this oil and gas are needed mainly for “our Turkish brothers have left them in order European consumers. It is no secret that the to render moral support to us,” adding that “if gas pipeline from Azerbaijan contributes and there is an external attack on us, they will see will contribute to the energy security of those F-16s”. European countries. In an interview with the Russian Interfax news Shahmar Hajiyev, a leading advisor at the agency broadcast on October 28, President Center of Analysis of International Relations, Ilham Aliyev pointed out that after the noted that “many Western companies have Azerbaijani Army liberated four districts, huge investments in the region. Armenia’s principles related to the activities around five military activities threaten their energy districts adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, as infrastructure, which are exporting Caspian oil stipulated under the Madrid agreement, were and gas to the global energy markets. Ganja no longer relevant as the basic principles and are close to this strategic energy determined the sequence of returning infrastructure, which connects Azerbaijan territories - five districts at the first stage, and energy pipelines to Europe via Georgia and Kalbacar and Lacin districts at the second Turkey. Pipelines are difficult military stage, and further, the return of Azerbaijanis objectives, however, because they are buried to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and of all underground and Azerbaijan has advanced air

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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defence systems. However, if Armenia should Nagorno-Karabakh conflict peacefully, Iran manage to damage critical infrastructure, then was not a member of the OSCE Minsk Group it would not only interrupt the gas and oil and therefore, the sides to the conflict had to supplies to Azerbaijan’s energy partners, first approve Iran's role as a mediator. affecting their interests as well, but it would Bayramov said that for the Nagorno-Karabakh also create environmental problems,” adding conflict to be resolved, countries should put that “it is particularly concerning that these forward a firm position and demand that attacks occur just when the first gas from the Armenia implement the UN Security Council region will be supplied to Resolutions and respect Azerbaijan's European energy consumers via the Trans- internationally recognized borders. He said Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Any reckless actions by that Turkey was one of such countries. Among the Armenian leadership will directly threaten the reasons why Turkey should be involved in EU energy security, likely creating even more the conflict settlement, Bayramov cited the problems for Armenia itself”. fact that Turkey is a member of the OSCE Speaking to Russian RIA news agency on 29 Minsk Group, it borders on all the three South October, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Caucasus countries and is actively involved in Azerbaijan Jeyhun Bayramov said that any the region, and that Turkey's position on negotiations on a cease-fire must be Karabakh is based on the norms and principles immediately followed by substantive of international law. negotiations on the basic settlement principles Azerbaijan also insisted on Turkey's developed by the OSCE Minsk Group. “A cease- involvement in the Karabakh peace fire does not mean a settlement, and no settlement. President Ilham Aliyev said he verification mechanism can be a substitute for would like to see Turkey in a Karabakh a durable solution to the conflict. In order to mediation group after the ongoing fighting in bring peace to the region, we have to get rid of the conflict zone ends. the very fact of occupation. Armenian forces II. The failure of ceasefire must withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani agreements and Armenia’s territories, as clearly stated in the relevant maximalist position resolutions of the UN Security Council adopted in 1993," Bayramov added. The deployment of In his interview with Turkish TV channel TRT any observer or peacekeeping forces on Haber on October 5, President Ilham Aliyev sovereign Azerbaijani territories must be elaborated on Azerbaijan’s conditions for agreed with Azerbaijan. Jeyhun Bayramov also ceasefire. “We must be given very serious added that any cease-fire monitoring guarantees. International mediators must mechanisms should be synchronized with the endorse these guarantees. At the same time, settlement process. “Otherwise, without we should be given a timetable for Armenia's Armenia's commitment to withdraw its forces withdrawal from the occupied territories, that from occupied Azerbaijani territories, the is, on what day it will leave and from which observers would simply serve the goal of district. Of course, then the war will end”. securing the situation based on occupation,” Reiterating Azerbaijan's determination to put Bayramov noted. an end to the conflict, President Ilham Aliyev said: “We want this problem resolved Bayramov also pointed out that while Baku peacefully and it must be resolved. The highly values Iran's efforts to help resolve the

Mirza İbrahimov 8, Baku, AZ1005, Azerbaijan, Phone: (+994 12) 596-82-39, (+994 12) 596-82-41, E-mail: [email protected]

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mediators just want a truce there. The truce civilian settlements and critical infrastructure has been in force since 1994. But why has the of Azerbaijan also have a clear goal. “They are problem not been resolved over these years?” dragging us into this provocation so that we President asked, recalling a number of also attack Armenia and strike on it,” President international documents, calling for an added. In an interview with Euronews TV on 7 immediate solution to the conflict. Going back October, President Ilham Aliyev reiterated to the UN resolutions dating back to the early Baku's condition for declaring truce and 1990s that called for the de-occupation of the starting peace negotiations, that is Armenia Azerbaijani territories, President asked why should submit a timetable for the withdrawal the UN resolutions were not implemented: of its armed forces from occupied territories. "Why were the UN Resolutions not He also called on the Armenian government to implemented? Why were sanctions not abandon its maximalist position. applied to the aggressor state? All these After more than 10 hours of negotiations, the questions are hanging in the air and there are humanitarian ceasefire agreement had been no answers to these questions”. President reached by Azerbaijan and Armenia at Russian- further added: "War has its own rules and brokered talks in Moscow. “A ceasefire is laws. Every day has its own meaning. If we take declared from 12:00 a.m. on 10 October 2020 a break, the enemy will gather additional for humanitarian purposes, for an exchange of forces. Their [Armenians'] speeches already prisoners of war and others withheld, as well indicate that they are getting Armenians living as an exchange of bodies with the mediation of outside Armenia involved in this war. Thus, the ICRC (International Committee of the Red they want to move this war from the regional Cross)," the statement said. However, the level and to turn it into a global war.” Asked if ceasefire agreement was quickly breached by clashes could open the way for a larger war Armenia. At the same time, Armenia and a larger regional crisis, President said immediately began to make statements that “Armenia wants it anyway. Their dirty deeds unilaterally and inaccurately interpret the are calculated for this. We believe that this statement of the Moscow meeting, as well as should not be allowed. This is a war between reflecting the slogans of self-determination Azerbaijan and Armenia. We did not start this and recognition of the illegal regime war. We are not guilty of it”. President added established by Armenia in the occupied that Azerbaijan was only protecting itself and territories of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan wanted to get its own territories back. During condemned Armenia for violating the the July 2020 clashes on the Armenian- humanitarian ceasefire that entered into force Azerbaijani border, the Azerbaijani troops did in the Karabakh conflict zone on 10 October. not cross to the land of Armenia, although we The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the could have done so, President recalled, adding Armenian army shelled Azerbaijan's Agdam that “we delivered crushing blows to them and and districts immediately after the they retreated. There were no obstacles in ceasefire entered into force and that several front of us, no obstacles. We did not do this hours later it attempted at attacking Hadrut because, as I said, we have no military targets and Cabrayil. On 11 October, the Defence on the lands of the Republic of Armenia. Ministry of Azerbaijan said that Armenia had However, Armenia is now attacking Azerbaijan shelled the towns of Ganja and Mingecevir and from the territory of Armenia”. Attacks on

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villages in , Tartar, Agdam, Agcabadi, Armenia’s subsequent actions and statements Fuzuli, and Cabrayil districts, killing civilians. caused utter confusion and disappointment. On the morning of 11 October, Hikmat Hajiyev Armenia violated the humanitarian truce that travelled to Ganja outside the conflict zone it had asked for within minutes of it being following a missile attack on it at night. Hikmat signed. The second largest Azerbaijani city, Hajiyev described the attack as "a terrorist act Ganja, was attacked using Tochka-U and, later, and an act of genocide". He had also tweeted SCUD ballistic missiles on the very night that that Armenia had obtained Smerch missiles the ceasefire took effect. Azerbaijan also under the guise of humanitarian aid and reported the shelling of cities such as Tartar, immediately launched attacks on civilians and Barda, , Aghjabedi, and electricity infrastructure in the town of Beylaghan. However, Ganja became a Mingecevir. The missile attack on Ganja killed textbook example of war crimes against peaceful civilians. The missiles used against nine and wounded 34 civilians. President Ilham Aliyev noted in a tweet the shelling of a civilian Ganja are proven to have large destructive quarter in the city - some 100 km off Nagorno- capacity and their use against civilians is Karabakh - was a war crime and added that the prohibited under international humanitarian missile attack came from Armenia's law. The attacks were also confirmed as having region. "Armenia has grossly violated the been launched directly from Armenian ceasefire by firing rockets at civilians in Ganja. territory”. This is a war crime and a gross violation of the On October 17, a new temporary humanitarian Geneva Conventions," a tweet by President ceasefire was agreed between Armenia and Ilham Aliyev said. Visiting the scene of shelling Azerbaijan. However, on October 18, after the in Ganja, Hikmat Hajiyev noted that the ceasefire took effect, the Armenian army countries selling weapons to Armenia should grossly violated the new ceasefire and started know that “it uses those weapons against shelling areas around the town of Cabrayil and civilians, against children”. The presidential villages of Cabrayil District along the River Araz aide also said that the missile strikes on Ganja from mortars and artillery guns. Hikmat are a military and political provocation of the Hajiyev said that despite the cease-fire 229 Armenian leadership. “We classify Armenia's projectiles were fired at Tartar, Goranboy and missile strike on Ganja as a terrorist attack, a Agdam districts, and three missiles were fired war crime, genocide against the Azerbaijani at Xizi, which is close to the capital Baku, and people. This is a military-political provocation Agcabadi District. of the Armenian leadership,” Hikmat Hajiyev On October 21, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol said. The military purpose of this provocation Pashinyan said there was “no diplomatic is to intimidate the population of Azerbaijan solution” in sight for the conflict, adding that and wreak havoc in society. According to Armenians must “fight to the end”. He called Hikmat Hajiyev, the political objective is “the on local officials, political parties and civil expectation that Azerbaijan will strike back at society to form volunteer brigades to aid the facilities in Armenia, and thus Armenia will war effort. Commenting on Pashinyan’s have a reason to get third countries involved in remarks, Hikmat Hajiyev stressed Armenia’s the conflict”. reluctance to negotiate a peaceful solution to As Dr. Esmira Jafarova pointed out, “right after the ongoing war in Karabakh. “A statement by the humanitarian ceasefire took effect, the Armenian prime minister that the

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Karabakh conflict does not have a diplomatic started on September 27 did not hold up in a solution indicates once again that Armenia is similar manner. absolutely not interested in resolving the On October 30, the Azerbaijani and Armenian conflict peacefully. With this statement, the foreign ministers met the OSCE Minsk Group Armenian leadership admits that their goal is co-chairmen in Geneva to discuss a peace to keep the Azerbaijani territories under settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. occupation. This confirms once again that the statements by officials in Yerevan on the Calls for a cease-fire will be meaningless unless settlement of the conflict through negotiations a permanent solution has been found to the are nothing but hypocrisy,” Hikmat Hajiyev Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and the said. occupation has ended. Throughout October, the essence of the negotiation mission The Armenian prime minister, irresponsibly remained the same – an end should be put to and for the sake of his political ambitions, calls Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijan. on all civilian authorities and civilians to take Azerbaijan made it clear that Yerevan should up arms and take part in hostilities. This official pull its troops out of the occupied territories. position of Armenia proves who violates the Azerbaijan also urged the international humanitarian ceasefire and is acting to community to put greater diplomatic pressure aggravate the situation in the region. The on Armenia to make it withdraw its troops statement by the Armenian prime minister from the occupied lands. As Dr. Esmira was made immediately after the working visits Jafarova pointed out, “when agreeing to the of the foreign ministers of both countries to humanitarian truce, Azerbaijan made its Moscow at the initiative of Russia and ahead objective very clear – its determination to of the meeting at the level of foreign ministers liberate its occupied territories is inexorable. in Washington at the US initiative. President Having embraced a position of strategic Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stated patience for almost three decades and Azerbaijan's readiness for negotiations and a remained a committed party in the peace diplomatic settlement of the conflict. negotiations, Azerbaijan had hoped for a Azerbaijan supports the settlement of the peaceful resolution of the conflict. However, conflict through negotiations in accordance with negotiations lasting for almost three with the existing roadmap and the UN Security decades without delivering a tangible solution Council resolutions. to the conflict, Azerbaijan’s strategic patience On October 25, Armenian and Azerbaijan started to wear thin”. announced a new ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States. According to a joint statement from the United States, III. Armenia continues to commit war Armenia and Azerbaijan, the humanitarian crimes by targeting civilians ceasefire should have taken effect at 8:00 a.m. Since the war started, Armenia resorted to the local time on October 26. However, within traditional tactic of terror and intensive minutes the ceasefire entered into force, shelling of the civilian population and Armenia again grossly violated the ceasefire. infrastructure of Azerbaijan, including Two previous humanitarian ceasefire settlements and people far from the conflict agreements brokered by Russia since a war zone. Armenia continued using heavy artillery

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to shell Azerbaijani settlements. A total of 21 October stated that, “now we have developed civilians died and 70 others were injured in a tactic of striking artillery. And in the future Armenian missile attack on the town of Barda we will strike at peaceful settlements in order on October 28, using banned cluster bombs. to cause panic”. According to Vasif Huseynov, The use of banned cluster bombs by Armenia “firing SCUD-B and Tochka-U ballistic missiles has also been verified by Amnesty and “SMERCH” heavy multiple rockets against International. Five civilians were killed and 12 civilian settlements, Armenia sought, among wounded in a missile strike on Barda just a day others, to cause a humanitarian tragedy in earlier. These attacks have brought the Azerbaijan, create public fear, and thus number of Azerbaijani civilian casualties since generate popular discontent with the the start of the fighting on 27 September to 91 government”. killed and 400 wounded. This act of Armenia is Moreover, Azerbaijan has urged civilians living a war crime, which grossly violates the in the occupied lands to keep away from provisions of international humanitarian law, military facilities. The Defence Ministry of including the 1949 Geneva Convention. From Azerbaijan addressed Armenians living in the the outset of the military operations, President conflict zone to tell them that Azerbaijan was Ilham Aliyev instructed the military not to not targeting civilians or civilian facilities or shoot on civilians and civilian targets. “Our infrastructure but military infrastructure. “For targets are military installations, positions, this reason, we are calling on the civilian equipment, and manpower. However, population residing in these areas to keep Armenia, loyal to its criminal actions, is shelling away from the fighting areas,” the statement our settlements, where civilians are dying," published on the website of the Ministry of President Ilham Aliyev said. Defence of Azerbaijan said. Azerbaijan also According to Vasif Huseynov, “the over- made clear that it would help those civilians to reliance of the Armenian political and military stay safe amid the heavy fighting and to leadership on the defense system they had evacuate them, offering them treatment built along the line of contact between the envisaged by the Geneva Convention. occupied Azerbaijani territories and the rest of Furthermore, Azerbaijan used modern Azerbaijan, their underestimation of technology and unmanned aerial vehicles to Azerbaijan’s defensive capabilities, and, in hit military targets in the occupied territories. particular, the conviction that Russia would When shelling the Nagorno-Karabakh town of militarily intervene in the war if Armenia Xankendi and its outskirts, the Armed Forces of needed, encouraged them to launch a new Azerbaijan only target military facilities. military operation to realize Tonoyan’s Armenia, however, shelled from its own expansionist doctrine”. territory Azerbaijani towns such as Ganja and The objective behind these attacks was made Mingecevir, the latter being home to a clear by Vagharshak Harutyunyan, the chief reservoir and a power station, which are adviser to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, outside the Karabakh fighting area. Yerevan's who, in an interview with TV show “Vesti” goal in shelling Azerbaijani towns outside the aired on the Russian TV channel Russia-1 on 6 conflict zone has been to make Azerbaijan take

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response measures and then involve third 30% of these territories in the first month of parties in the conflict through the Russia-led the war. The more territories lost by Collective Security Treaty Organisation. "Since Armenians, the more aggressive they had last Saturday [3 October], Armenia has been become. On the one hand, the desire to re- targeting Azerbaijan's cities of Ganja and take the lost positions, on the other hand, the Mingecevir [the latter being home to a goal to retaliate for other losses led Armenians reservoir and a power station] which are 100- to disregarding the international calls for 200 km away [from the conflict zone]. Combat ceasefire and attacking Azerbaijan’s civilian operations themselves are an unfortunate settlements with missiles”. scenario. Still there are known rules for Vasif Huseynov pointed out that conducting combat operations. But for “unfortunately, not only the officials in the Armenia there are no red lines. The mindset of Armenian government, but also the Armenian military-political leadership is a representatives of the general public and even terrorist mindset. Azerbaijan's position is journalists advocated this inhuman strategy. based on international law and historical truth. For example, Tatul Hakobyan, an Armenian The Azerbaijani leadership has declared on journalist who had also participated in the many occasions that it has no problems with Western-initiated peacebuilding initiatives the Armenian civilian population living on between Armenia and Azerbaijan, called his Azerbaijani territories,” Minister of Foreign government hours before the deadly missile Affairs of Azerbaijan Jeyhun Bayramov said. attack against Barda city of Azerbaijan on 28 Armenia was also deliberately putting October, to cause “a large-scale human journalists' life at risk in the conflict zone. tragedy” in Azerbaijan, which he sought as the Yerevan did not take measures to make sure only way to push Azerbaijan into concessions”. that journalists Armenia brought to the fighting zone could be clearly distinguished from soldiers. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of IV. Economic implications of Azerbaijan-Armenia military Azerbaijan urged journalists not to travel to confrontation for Armenia the conflict zone and advised “all media representatives and foreign journalists strictly Orkhan Baghirov, a leading advisor at the to comply with rules and laws of the Center of Analysis of International Relations, Azerbaijani Republic regarding their noted that the continuation of armed accreditation in the territory of the country”. confrontation creates not only humanitarian issues and political instability in Armenia, but Vasif Huseynov pointed out that “the military also grave economic problems. As military operations did not take place as Armenians expenses are rapidly increasing, it negatively expected. The deployment of modern affects the economy of Armenia which has weapons, especially military drones, by already severely suffered from the COVID-19 Azerbaijan over the last years, coupled with pandemic. Just in first 4 days of armed the determination and solidarity of the general confrantation, Armenia lost the military public, helped Azerbaijani army to advance equipment and ammunition worth more than into the occupied region and liberate around 1.2 billion US dollars. As Orkhan Baghirov pointed out “weak economic activity and

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financial problems also affect the level of GDP. before the events of 1988”. Dr. Farid Despite the fact that Armenian government Shafiyev also noted that “identifying the predicted only 2% decrease in April, it lowered conflict as the result of a democracy problem its predictions to -5% in August and to -6.8% in also implies that in the event of a more October. Therefore, in the end of year the level democratic state, the West would be more of the GDP will be about $1.57 billion less sympathetic to the Azerbaijani position. The compared to the initial predictions. On the events of 1992, more specifically the adopted other hand, because of the armed Article 907 of the "Freedom Support Act" confrontation, the national currency of (banning U.S. aid to Azerbaijan) implemented Armenia is depreciating which also diminishes during the presidency of the pro-western the level of GDP in terms of US dollar. Abulfaz Elchibay, debunk these claims. All Economic situation in Armenia also negatively leaders of Azerbaijan have become victims of affects its international ratings.” In its recent Western villainization, regardless of their revision of Armenia’s Long-Term Foreign- politics”. Currency Issuer Default Rating, Fitch Ratings Dr Farid Shafiyev pointed out that “recent downgraded its rating to ‘B+’ from ‘BB-’. developments on the ground are thus According to Fitch Ratings, the main problems portrayed in parts of the Western media with that are negatively affecting the rating of several clichés and entrenched stereotypes Armenia are the high and growing net external with the help of pro-Armenian writers. Aside debt, large structural current account deficit, a from falsely framing the conflict as a religious reliance on remittances, weak FDI inflows and one, the Pashinyan government also advances the armed confrontation with Azerbaijan. the narrative of democracy vs autocracy. It fails to mention that Pashinyan has imprisoned V. Propaganda and false narratives his political opponents; remains silent on the about the conflict fact that his populist and increasingly ultranationalist rhetoric has been consistently Some experts and observers claimed that the bereft of a vision for how to accommodate lack of democracy is a major factor in the Azerbaijani refugees and internally displaced Armenia-Azerbaijani conflict. The reality could person's (IDPs) who want to return to their not be further from the truth. As Dr. Farid homes, and fails to mention that Armenia’s Shafiyev, Chairman of the Center of Analysis of occupation has resulted in the total and International Relations, pointed out “the complete ethnic cleansing of the pre-war nature of the dispute is not based on a Azerbaijani population. This twisted idea of democratic deficit (or religion as some like to freedom exclusively for Armenians calls to claim). Rather, the dispute is grounded in mind white supremacist ideology that Armenian territorial claims that revolve presupposes the physical extermination of around the concept of “,” meaning non-whites”. unification of the Azerbaijani territory of Although the Armenian government had Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. The two suffered from autocracy and corruption all nations peacefully co-existed before the rise of these years, as Dr Farid Shafiyev noted, “they Armenian nationalism; the first expulsion of still got to enjoy a permissive international Azerbaijanis by Armenian extremists started in environment. Even today, Armenia is still the fall of 1987 from the district of Kapan, long violating international law and not abiding by

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UNSC resolutions 822, 853, 874, 884, yet establishment of “Great Armenia.” In the Yerevan does not get met with a substantial evolving geopolitical environment of the post- amount of disapproval from the international Cold war era, Armenians exploited community. This again shows that the Islamophobia and Turkophobia to advance international community’s true concerns are their cause”. not focused on the presence or absence of As Dr Farid Shafiyev put it, “the argument that democracy”. the Armenia-Azerbaijani conflict is caused by a As Dr Farid Shafiyev put it, “it is also essential democracy problem also implies that were to decode current Armenian prime minister there no democracy deficit, the problem Nikol Pashinyan’s vision of “democracy.” The would have been solved. However, such a fact that Pashinyan’s version of regional hypothesis does not hold once we take into “democracy” can only be extended to account the current ethno-territorial conflicts Armenian nationals, with Azerbaijanis within Western democracies such as Quebec ethnically cleansed from both Armenia and the in Canada, Scotland in the United Kingdom, occupied territories of Azerbaijan, makes such Catalonia in Spain, as well as Flanders in a vision more resemblant of white supremacist Belgium. The existence of advanced ideology rather than democracy”. democracy simply does not solve or prevent Dr Farid Shafiyev pointed out that “when these conflicts from happening in their Armenian ultranationalists launched their regions,” adding that “when assessing some unification campaign in February 1988 in an policies implemented in Western democracies, already crumbling , Armenia’s it becomes clear that those countries strong diaspora in the West supported it themselves have resorted to the use of force in through a well-organized network of certain instances, even on foreign soil and policymakers, journalists, and scholars. This sometimes without proper authorization from ethnic conflict was portrayed as a religious the UN Security Council as required by one, even though Armenia manages to enjoy international law. Azerbaijan, on the other as good relations with Iran as Azerbaijan does hand, has patiently waited for peaceful with Israel. For liberals, it was presented as a negotiations for almost thirty years and now is self-determination struggle, while the end goal practicing its legal right of self-defense under of the ultranationalist campaign was Article 51 of the UN Charter”. Armenia’s territorial expansion and the

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