: Armenia and Azerbaijan–2008-2012 Disclaimer Contact the Geospatial Technologies Project geotech © Copyright 2015 Geospatial Technologies Project Program Associate Acknowledgement !
Introduction* * Nagorno)Karabakh!is!a!mountainous!region!in!the!South!Caucasus!situated!roughly!100! kilometers!southeast!of!the!Armenian!capital,!Yerevan.!Although!inhabited!largely!by!ethnic! Armenians,!during!the!Soviet!period!the!region!was!an!administrative!division!of!the!Azerbaijan! Soviet!Socialist!Republic!known!as!the!Nagorno)Karabakh!Autonomous!Oblast!(NKAO).!For!most! of!that!era,!however,!the!long)standing!ethnic!tensions!that!existed!between!Armenians!and! Azeris!in!the!region!were!effectively!suppressed!by!the!Soviet!authorities.!With!the!arrival!of! Glasnost!in!the!late!1980s,!this!situation!changed,!and!public!demonstrations!both!for!and! against!the!Oblast’s!cession!to!Armenia!occurred!frequently.1! ! In!early!1988,!in!the!town!of!Askeran,!these!events!turned!violent,!when!confrontations! between!the!Armenian!population!and!a!crowd!of!Azeris!from!nearby!Agdam!ended!with!two! Azeris!killed!under!unclear!circumstances.!This!clash!was!followed!by!a!severe!pogrom!against! ethnic!Armenians!living!in!Sumgait,!a!suburb!of!the!Azerbaijani!capital!of!Baku.!In!Armenia,! outrage!over!the!events!in!Sumgait!combined!with!frustration!over!Moscow’s!decision!on!23! March!not!to!award!Nagorno)Karabakh!to!Armenia,!and!led!to!the!massive!expulsion!of!Azeris! living!in!Armenian!territory,!including!the!burning!of!nine!villages.!In!Azerbaijan,!fearing! reprisals,!many!ethnic!Armenians!began!to!flee!the!country.2! ! In!June,!the!Soviets!of!the!Armenian!and!Azerbaijani!Soviet!Socialist!Republics!(SSRs)!both!held! votes!with!mutually!contradictory!outcomes!regarding!the!status!of!the!Nagorno)Karabakh! Autonomous!Oblast,!prompting!Soviet!leader!Mikhail!Gorbachev!to!publicly!reject!any!change! in!the!Soviet!Union’s!internal!borders!at!a!party!congress!in!Moscow.!This!led!the!Karabakh! Armenians!to!unilaterally!vote!for!secession!from!Azerbaijan!on!12!July!1988.!In!November! 1988,!following!the!sentencing!of!an!Azeri!involved!in!the!violence!in!Sumgait,!a!new!wave!of! violence!and!expulsions!erupted!against!Armenians!in!the!Azerbaijani!cities!of!Baku!and!Ganja.! By!the!end!of!the!month,!roughly!400,000!refugees!had!been!exchanged!between!Armenia!and! Azerbaijan,!in!nearly!equal!proportions.3! ! As!the!Soviet!Union!continued!down!the!path!to!collapse,!the!situation!in!Azerbaijan!and! Armenia!progressively!deteriorated.!Armenian!and!Azeri!militias!continued!to!stockpile!arms! and!sporadically!attack!one)another,!defying!the!authority!of!an!increasingly!ineffective! government!in!Moscow,!which!was!no!longer!able!to!enforce!stability.!In!September!1991,!the! Soviet!of!the!NKAO!issued!a!proclamation!declaring!the!oblast’s!independence!as!the!Nagorno! Karabakh!Republic!(NKR).!Soviet!forces!withdrew!from!the!region!in!December!1991.!With!their! departure,!the!crisis!between!Armenia!and!Azerbaijan!quickly!escalated!into!open!warfare.4! !
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1!L.!Hajda,!Ethnic!Politics!and!Ethnic!Conflict!in!the!USSR!and!the!Post)Soviet!States,!Humboldt-Journal-of-Social-Relations.19,!2!(1993).! 2!S.!Cornell,!The-Nagorno:Karabakh-Conflict!(Report!no.!46,!Department!of!East!European!Studies,!Uppsala!University,!1999;! http://edoc.bibliothek.uni)halle.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/HALCoRe_derivate_00003079/Nagorno)Karabakh%20Conflict.pdf)! 3!See!note!2.! 4!See!note!2.!
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The!war!proved!to!be!an!unmitigated!disaster!for!Azerbaijan,!which!had!planned!on!having! Moscow’s!help!to!defend!Karabakh,!and!was!left!badly!unprepared!in!the!face!of!Armenia’s! extensive!military!preparations.!In!February!1992,!Armenian!forces!captured!the!town!of! Khojaly,!a!predominately!Azeri!village!in!the!NKR,!in!an!episode!of!ethnic!cleansing!that!Human! Rights!Watch!estimates!resulted!in!the!deaths!of!between!200!and!1000!civilians,!and!the! forced!displacement!of!hundreds!more.5!Azerbaijan,!facing!severe!domestic!political!turmoil,! attempted!a!counteroffensive!in!June!of!that!same!year!that!resulted!in!limited!gains!that!were! subsequently!reversed!by!an!Armenian!counteroffensive!in!the!spring!of!1993.!Throughout!the! following!year,!Armenian!forces!accumulated!a!string!of!victories,!capturing!vast!swaths!of! territory,!including!predominately!Azeri!areas!outside!the!boundaries!of!the!NKR.! Contemporary!estimates!indicate!that!this!offensive!resulted!in!the!displacement!of!80,000!)! 100,000!Azeris!by!late!summer.6!A!final!Azerbaijani!attempt!to!repel!the!Armenian!forces!was! pushed!back!in!February!1994.!Following!this!defeat,!a!Russian)brokered!cease)fire!was! implemented!in!May,!and!ratified!by!the!parties!in!July!1994.!Although!this!agreement!remains! in!force,!low)intensity!conflict!continues,!particularly!along!the!line!of!contact!between!the! opposing!forces,!where!skirmishes!and!other!violations!of!the!cease)fire!are!commonplace.7! ! Since!2000,!three!series!of!incidents!have!taken!place!that!could!be!studied!using!high) resolution!satellite!imagery.!The!first!of!these!took!place!on!4!March!2008,!near!the!town!of! Levonarkh!in!the!northeast!of!the!NKR,!where!a!gun!battle!broke!out!along!the!line!of!contact.! According!to!the!differing!narratives!promulgated!by!the!two!sides,!this!clash!led!to!the!death! of!between!eight!and!twenty!servicemen,!with!the!distribution!of!nationalities!varying!from! source!to!source.8!According!to!reports!in!the!Armenian!media,!armament!of!an!unspecified! nature!was!left!on!the!battlefield.9!Four!days!later,!a!second!gun!battle!with!similarly!unclear! results!took!place!near!Agdam,10!a!former!Azerbaijani!city!35!kilometers!to!the!south,!now!in! ruins.!! ! In!summer!2010,!a!second!series!of!clashes!took!place!along!the!line!of!contact,!this!time!near! Chaylu,!a!small!village!located!less!than!five!kilometers!from!the!site!of!the!2008!skirmishes.!As! before,!accounts!of!which!side!fired!first!vary!widely,!with!the!Armenian!side!claiming!they! came!under!a!surprise!attack!from!an!Azerbaijani!unit!on!the!night!of!18!June,11!while!the! Azerbaijani!government!claimed!that!its!troops!were!subjected!to!automatic!weapons!fire!from! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 5!Human!Rights!Watch.!“Seven!Years!of!Conflict!in!Nagorno)Karabakh.”!1!December!1994!http://www.hrw.org/reports/1994/12/01/seven) years)conflict)nagorno)karabakh!accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 6!The!Los!Angeles!Times.!“Up!to!100,000!Azerbaijanis!Reportedly!Fleeing!Armenians.”!25!August!1993!http://articles.latimes.com/1993)08) 25/news/mn)27857_1_karabakh)armenians!accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 7Boundary!News.!“Skirmishes!between!Armenian!and!Azerbaijani!troops!threatens!talks!on!Nagorno!Karabakh!settlement.”!9!December!2009! https://www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/news/boundary_news/?itemno=9143&rehref=%2Fibru%2Fnews%2F&resubj=Boundary+news%20Headlines! accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 8!Today!.az.!“12!Armenian!soldiers!killed,!15!wounded!in!clash.”!5!March!2008!http://today.az/news/society/43529.html!accessed!on!27! February!2015.! 9!Office!of!the!Nagorno!Karabakh!Republic.!“Karabakh!Passed!Bodies!of!Killed!Servicemen!to!Azerbaijan.”!3!June!2008! http://www.nkrusa.org/news/daily_news.php?id=1293!accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 10!International!Herald!Tribune.!“4!killed!in!Nagorno)Karabakh!region!in!skirmishes!between!Azerbaijanis,!ethnic!Armenians.”!10!March!2008! https://web.archive.org/web/20080314222857/http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/10/europe/EU)GEN)Armenia)Azerbaijan.php! accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 11!Lragir.am.!“NKR!Defense!Ministry!Statement.”!19!June!2010!http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/18305!accessed!on!27!February! 2015.!
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Armenian!forces.12!Four!Armenians!and!one!Azerbaijani!were!killed!in!the!night’s!fighting.!Two! days!later,!on!21!June,!Armenian!forces!retaliated!against!Azerbaijani!forces!near!Fizuli,!on!the! southeastern!border!of!the!NKR,!resulting!in!the!death!of!one!Azerbaijani!serviceman.13! Following!this!incident,!there!was!a!tense!standoff!along!the!line!of!contact!until!three! Armenians!and!two!Azeris!died!in!an!exchange!of!fire!near!the!village!of!Jraberd!on!1! September,!for!which!each!side,!once!again,!blamed!the!other.14! * After!a!year!of!relative!quiet,!a!third!round!of!skirmishes!broke!out!the!evening!of!4!June!2012.! As!in!previous!incidents,!the!version!of!events!varied!widely!between!belligerents.!Azerbaijan! claimed!that!“Armenian!saboteurs”!had!killed!four!soldiers!in!an!incident!in!the!village!of!Aşağı! Əskipara!and!a!fifth!in!the!Qazax!district.15!Armenia,!by!contrast,!claimed!that!its!forces! successfully!fought!off!a!group!of!between!15!and!20!“armed!diversionists”!who!attempted!to! invade!the!Tavush!district,!adjacent!to!Qazax.!Unlike!the!incidents!in!2008!and!2010,!which! occurred!along!the!line!of!contact!between!Azerbaijani!and!Armenian!troops!in!the!disputed! territory,!the!2012!clashes!took!place!along!the!uncontested!border!between!Azerbaijan!and! Armenia.!Irrespective!of!which!party!fired!the!first!shot,!the!spread!of!the!conflict!to!areas! beyond!Nagorno!Karabakh!represented!a!potentially!hazardous!escalation.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! * Data*and*Methods* - To!determine!whether!any!of!these!clashes!were!accompanied!by!warning!signs!that!were! visible!in!satellite!imagery,!AAAS!acquired!multiple!images!of!the!area!surrounding!the!reported! site!of!each!skirmish.!Where!possible,!additional!imagery!was!also!acquired!of!nearby!military! bases,!as!experience!has!shown!that!changes!in!activity!at!these!facilities!often!accompanies! the!redeployment!of!forces!associated!with!conflict.!A!full!accounting!of!the!imagery!acquired!is! shown!in!Table!1,!below.!Each!of!these!images!was!visually!analyzed,!with!particular!attention! paid!to!features!that!have!been!identified!as!being!associated!with!border!conflicts.!These! include!features!such!as!the!movement!of!troops,!logistics!vehicles!and!materiel,!the! development!of!new!infrastructure!in!close!proximity!to!the!disputed!area,!and!the!direct! effects!of!weapons!systems,!such!as!damaged!buildings!and!shell!craters.!A!map!displaying!all!of! the!locations!imaged!is!shown!in!Figure!1.! ------
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 12!Radio!Free!Europe!/!Radio!Liberty.!“Armenian,!Azerbaijani!Clashes!Continue!In!Karabakh.”!22!June!2010! http://www.rferl.org/content/Armenian_Azerbaijani_Clashes_Continue_In_Karabakh/2078581.html!accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 13!Radio!Free!Europe!/!Radio!Liberty.!“OSCE,!EU!Condemn!Karabakh!'Armed!Incident'.”!24!June!2010! http://www.rferl.org/content/OSCE_EU_Condemn_Karabakh_Armed_Incident/2079009.html!accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 14!EuroNews.!“Five!killed!in!latest!Nagorno)Karabakh!clash”!http://www.euronews.com/2010/09/01/five)killed)in)latest)nagorno)karabakh) clash/!accessed!on!27!February!2015.! 15!BBC.!“Armenian!forces!kill!five!Azerbaijani!troops!on!border.”!5!June!2012!http://www.bbc.com/news/world)europe)18328690!accessed!on! 27!February!2015.!
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Table-1:-Imagery- Date* Sensor* Image*ID* ! 2!March!2008! WorldView)1! 10200100021E9800! 15!March!2008! WorldView)1! 1020010001222D00! 4!November!2009! GeoEye)1! 1050410002108000! 29!March!2010! WorldView)2! 1030010004832F00! 17!May!2010! WorldView)2! 10300100056E4400! 16!June!2010! WorldView)2! 1030010005226400! 21!June!2010! WoeldView)2! 103001000574A200! 27!June!2010! WorldView)2! 10300100061FF700! 28!June!2010! WorldView)1! 102001000E25F200! 1!September!2010! QuickBird)2! 101001000C38B200! 30!September!2010! WorldView)1! 102001000D1B1100! 30!September!2011! WorldView)2! 103001000D4D8E00! 17!January!2012! GeoEye)1! 105041000052EC00! 6!June!2012! QuickBird)2! 101001000F7FA400! 25!June!2012! WorldView)1! 102001001C05AA00! ! Figure-1:-Locations-of-images-examined-in-this-report-
- This-map-illustrates-the-locations-of-the-imagery-analyzed-(red-boxes),-as-well-as-the-line-of-contact-between- Armenian-and-Azerbaijani-troops-(orange-line),-the-Nagorno-Karabakh-Republic-(extending-from-the-line-of-contact- in-the-north-and-east-to-the-Armenian-and-Iranian-borders),-and-the-former-boundaries-of-the-Nagorno-Karabakh- Autonomous-Oblast-(red-outline).- ! !
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Results* * 2008- - No!imagery!was!available!for!the!location!of!the!2008!skirmishes!near!the!dates!in!question.! The!Azerbaijani!military!base!at!Perekeshkul,!however,!was!imaged!on!two!occasions!whose! dates!bracketed!the!clashes!of!3)9!March.!In!both!images,!large!numbers!of!military!vehicles! were!visible!in!a!depot!on!the!base.!Prior!to!the!conflict,!on!2!March,!these!included!seven! armored!vehicles,!21!artillery!pieces,!and!71!transport!vehicles.!Although!some!of!these! changed!position!between!pre)skirmish!and!post)skirmish!imagery,!little!change!was!visible!in! their!number.!After!the!clashes,!on!15!March,!the!depot!contained!six!armored!vehicles,!21! artillery!pieces,!and!74!transports!(Figure!2).!No!other!changes!were!visible!at!the!base.! ! Figure-2:-No-significant-change-at-Perekeshkul-army-base,-2008-
- Between-2-March-(left)-and-15-March-2008-(right),-little-change-is-visible-at-Azerbaijan’s-Perekeshkul-army- base.-Images-DigitalGlobe-|-Analysis-AAAS. Coordinates: 40.485 N, 49.596 E. - 2010- - In!contrast!to!the!2008!clashes,!considerably!more!imagery!was!available!covering!locations!and! dates!relevant!to!the!incidents!which!took!place!in!2010.!In!particular,!the!area!surrounding!the! village!of!Çaylı,!where!the!fighting!was!reported!to!have!taken!place,!was!imaged!on!28!June,! just!nine!days!after!the!skirmishes!of!18)19!June.!Despite!this!favorable!timing,!however,!no! indication!of!the!incident!was!visible!in!the!image.!The!only!change!visible!from!the!image!taken! on!4!November!2009!was!the!presence!of!several!heavy!trucks!near!the!line!of!contact,! however!there!is!nothing!in!the!imagery!to!suggest!that!the!arrival!of!these!vehicles!is!anything! but!routine.!!
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Unlike!in!2008,!however,!analysis!of!the!Azerbaijani!base!at!Perekeshkul!also!showed!noticeable! change!between!pre)skirmish!and!post)skirmish!imagery.!On!29!March!2010,!prior!to!the! incidents,!the!base!contained!seven!armored!vehicles,!20!artillery!pieces,!and!91!trucks.!On!1! September,!after!the!events!of!June!and!concurrent!with!the!escalation!that!took!place!in! Jraberd!on!the!same!date,!the!base!contained!15!armored!vehicles,!12!artillery!pieces,!and!97! trucks.!Following!the!second!skirmish!on!30!September,!the!base!contained!20!armored! vehicles,!8!artillery!pieces,!and!110!trucks.!The!changing!numbers!of!vehicles!and!weapons! systems!at!Perekeshkul!in!2010!are!illustrated!in!Figure!3.! ! Figure-3:-Changing-numbers-of-vehicles-and-artillery-at-Perekeshkul-army-base,-2010-
Between-29-March-(top-left),-1-September-(top- right),-and-30-September-(bottom-left),-a-number- of-artillery-pieces-(yellow-outline)-disappear-from- the-Azerbaijani-base-at-Perekeshkul.-Over-the- same-interval,-the-number-of-armored-vehicles- (red-outline)-increases.-Images-DigitalGlobe-|- Analysis-AAAS. Coordinates: 40.485 N, 49.596 E.
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In!addition!to!the!Azerbaijani!base!at!Perekeshkul,!three!Armenian!bases!were!also!imaged!in! 2010.!The!first!two,!both!located!to!the!northeast!and!southwest!of!the!city!of!Goris,!host!an! antiaircraft!battalion!and!the!Armenian!Second!Motorized!Infantry!Brigade,!respectively.! Imagery!of!the!bases!was!acquired!from!17!May!and!27!June,!2010.!Both!before!and!after!the! skirmishes!of!18)19!June,!no!significant!activity!was!noted!at!either!base.!The!only!change! observed!was!the!appearance!of!two!trucks!and!two!possible!artillery!pieces!at!the! headquarters!of!the!Second!Brigade;!the!northeastern!base!showed!no!activity.!The!third! Armenian!base!imaged!during!this!period!was!located!at!Nubarashen,!on!the!outskirts!of!the! Armenian!capital!of!Yerevan,!which!was!imaged!on!16!and!21!June.!As!at!other!bases,!however,! no!significant!activity!was!apparent.!Several!trucks!were!observed!to!move,!and!five!objects! that!may!have!been!artillery!pieces!disappeared!between!the!two!dates;!however!the! resolution!of!the!imagery!was!not!sufficient!to!definitively!identify!these!objects!as!weapons! (Figure!4).! ! Figure-4:-Movement-of-possible-artillery-near-Yerevan-
- Between-16-and-21-June,-six-possible-artillery-pieces-(yellow-arrows)-are-no-longer-visible-at-a-base-outside- Yerevan.-Images-DigitalGlobe-|-Analysis-AAAS. Coordinates: 40.087 N, 44.555 E.- - 2012- - Direct!imaging!of!the!border!near!the!village!of!Aşağı!Əskipara!on!6!June!2012,!two!days!after! the!incident!reported!there,!showed!no!visible!change!from!imagery!acquired!the!previous! year.!Although!imagery!from!2012!was!unavailable!for!the!military!bases!examined!in!2008!and! 2010,!the!Azerbaijani!city!of!Ganja!was!included!in!a!scene!acquired!on!25!June,!shortly!after! the!skirmishes.!Ganja!is!the!second)largest!city!in!Azerbaijan,!and!the!location!of!a!number!of! Azerbaijani!military!installations!of!the!Army’s!I!corps.16!When!this!scene!was!compared!to!
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 16!GlobalSecurity.org!“Azerbaijan!Ground!Forces!Order!of!Battle.”!25!March!2013! http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/azerbaijan/army)orbat.htm!accessed!on!27!February!2015.! !
! 7! ! imagery!of!the!same!area!taken!six!months!earlier,!on!17!January!2012,!it!was!observed!that! the!number!of!artillery!pieces!had!declined!from!15!to!6!(Figure!5),!while!the!number!of! logistics!vehicles!–primarily!trucks–!had!declined!from!158!to!147.! ! Figure-5:-Movement-of-vehicles-and-artillery-at-Ganja-
- Between-January-and-June-2012,-artillery-pieces-(yellow-arrows)-as-well-as-transport-vehicles-are-no- longer-visible-at-Ganja,-Azerbaijan.-Images-DigitalGlobe-|-Analysis-AAAS. Coordinates: 40.720 N, 46.365 E. *
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Conclusions* * In!all!cases,!direct!imaging!of!the!sites!where!skirmishes!took!place!along!the!border!and!the! line!of!contact!failed!to!provide!meaningful!results.!While!disappointing,!this!outcome!is! consistent!with!the!small!scale!of!the!reported!violence.!Less!explainable!is!the!lack!of!visible! reinforcements!on!either!side!following!the!clashes.!One!possible!explanation!for!this!could!be! that!such!forces!were!indeed!deployed,!but!were!not!visible!due!to!camouflage!or! concealment.!Alternatively,!given!the!enduring!and!static!nature!of!the!conflict,!it!is!possible! that!both!sides!felt!they!had!exploited!their!tactical!situation!to!maximum!advantage,!and! therefore!deemed!reinforcements!unnecessary!or!not!worth!the!potential!for!escalation.! ! Despite!the!lack!of!visible!reinforcements!at!the!border!or!along!the!line!of!contact,!indirect! evidence!from!imaging!military!bases!suggests!that!modest!resources!may!have!been! redeployed!in!response!to!the!clashes.!At!two!bases!in!Azerbaijan!–Perekeshkul!and!Ganja–!the! number!of!artillery!pieces!was!observed!to!decline!in!image!pairs!whose!dates!bracketed!the! events!on!the!border.!A!similar!phenomenon!was!observed!at!a!base!outside!Yerevan!in! Armenia.!However,!in!that!instance,!the!identification!of!artillery!was!considerably!more! ambiguous.!In!addition!to!a!decrease!in!artillery,!a!substantial!increase!in!armored!vehicles!was! noted!at!Perekeshkul.!However,!that!facility!is!a!rear)echelon!base!located!over!200*kilometers! from!the!line!of!contact.!An!increase!in!the!number!of!trucks!and!armored!vehicles!at!the!base! is!not!an!escalation!in!itself,!and!could!suggest!a!redeployment!of!forces!away!from!the!zone!of! conflict.! ! Ultimately,!whether!the!changes!observed!at!the!various!military!bases!represent!operational! redeployments!cannot!be!determined!with!certainty;!routine!maintenance!in!the!large!covered! garages!directly!adjacent!to!the!weapons!could!also!explain!the!variation!in!numbers,!as!could! redeployments!to!or!from!other!bases,!or!military!exercises!elsewhere.!In!the!absence!of! imagery!or!reporting!suggesting!that!the!skirmishes!had!been!accompanied!by!a!redeployment! of!forces!on!either!side,!any!such!build)up!on!the!border!or!the!line!of!contact,!therefore,! remains!speculative.!
! 9! www.aaas.org/geotech/borders