November 2012

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update since our Overview October Forecast 3 Open Debate on Piracy India will have the presidency of the Security by Portugal). 4 Somalia Council in November. Two open debates are Briefings in consultations are likely on: 6 Sudan and South Sudan planned on piracy as a global threat and on the t
Wester n Sahara, by Personal Envoy Christo- 8 South Sudan Council’s working methods. pher Ross; 9 Democratic Republic of Debates are scheduled on Bosnia and Herze- t
Sudan and South Sudan, most likely by Spe- Congo govina, with a briefing by High Representative cial Envoy Haile Menkerios; 11 Sierra Leone Valentin Inzko; on Timor-Leste, with a briefing by t
the implementation of resolution 1701, by the acting head of the UN Integrated Mission in Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek 12 Western Sahara Timor-Leste Finn Reske-Nielsen; and on the UN Plumbly; 14 Libya Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo, with t
the Somalia/Eritrea Sanctions Committee 15 Lebanon a briefing by its head, Farid Zarif. (chaired by India); 16 Iraq Early in the month several Council members t
the DRC Sanctions Committee (chaired by 18 Yemen will undertake a visiting mission to Timor-Leste. Azerbaijan); Mid-month members will participate in the t
the DPRK Sanctions Committee (chaired by 19 Bosnia and Herzegovina annual “Hitting the Ground Running” workshop Portugal); and 20 Kosovo organised by Finland for the newly elected Coun- t
the Secretary-General’s report on illicit cross- 22 DPRK (North Korea) cil members. border tra"cking and movement requested 23 Timor-Leste Briefings are expected on: in an April presidential statement (S/ t
the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Commit- PRST/2012/16). 25 Counter-Terrorism tee (chaired by Germany); the 1373 Counter- In addition, briefings and consultations are 26 Working Methods Te r r o r i s m C o m m i t t e e (chaired by India); and possible on developments in Guinea-Bissau, Syria, 28 Notable Dates the 1540 Committee concerning weapons of Sierra Leone following the elections scheduled mass destruction (chaired by South Africa)— for 17 November, and on the plans for an inter- this joint briefing may be followed by a debate; national force in Mali. t
the situation in Ye m e n , by Special Adviser Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- Jamal Benomar; lutions to renew: t
the visiting mission to Timor-Leste, by Ambas- t
the mandate of UN Interim Security Force sador Baso Sangqu (South Africa) who is lead- in Abyei; ing the delegation; and t
the DRC sanctions and the mandate of the t
Libya and the ICC by the Court’s Prosecutor, Group of Experts; Fatou Bensouda. t
the authorisation of the Somalia anti-piracy Briefings to be followed by consultations are measures; and likely on: t
the authorisation of the EU-led multinational t
the UN Support Mission in Libya by the head stabilisation force in Bosnia and Herzegovina. of Political A!airs, Je!rey Feltman; The Council will adopt and present its annual t
the UN Mission in South Sudan, by the head report of the Security Council to the General of Peacekeeping, Hervé Ladsous; Assembly in November. t
the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq by its At press time, it also seemed that some Council head, Martin Kobler; meetings, which were cancelled when UN Head- 1 November 2012 t
the situation in the DRC by the head of the quarters closed down due to Hurricane Sandy, This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. UN Stabilisation Mission in the DRC, Roger would be rescheduled in November, including Meece; 1559 consultations (Lebanon) and a private meet- For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please t
the situation in the Middle East, also by Felt- ing with the president of the International Court subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” man; and of Justice. series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. t
the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee (chaired

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our October Forecast

Haiti of international peace and security” (S/ on Darfur in October. On 3 October, the On 3 October, the Council held a debate (S/ PV.6849). The focus of the open debate was Council condemned the ambush on a UNA- PV.6842) on the Secretary-General’s most the relationship of the Council with the ICC MID patrol in El Geneini by unidentified recent MINUSTAH report (S/2012/678). since it commenced operation in 2002. Fifty individuals that led to the deaths of four During the debate, the Council was briefed states and the EU participated in the debate. Nigerian peacekeepers and the wounding of by Mariano Fernández, the Special Repre- Speaking in the Council were the Secretary- eight others (SC/10781). On 17 October, the sentative of the Secretary-General and the General; the President of the ICC, Judge Council condemned the attack by uniden- Head of MINUSTAH. On 12 October, the Sang-Hyun Song; and Phakiso Mochochoko, tified individuals on a UNAMID patrol in Council adopted resolution 2070, renewing from the O"ce of the Prosecutor of the ICC. North Darfur that resulted in the death of a the mandate of MINUSTAH until 15 Octo- South African peacekeeper and the wounding ber 2013. Security Council Elections of three others (SC/10795). On 18 October, the General Assembly elected Mali five new members to serve on the Council for Côte d’Ivoire On 12 October, the Council unanimously a two-year term starting on 1 January 2013. On 25 October, the Council was briefed in passed resolution 2071 expressing its readi- In the first round of voting, Rwanda was consultations by Ambassador Gert Rosen- ness to respond positively to a request from elected with 148 votes, as was Australia (140 thal (Guatemala), chair of the 1572 Sanc- Mali regarding an intervention force to assist votes) and Argentina (182). Those three can- tions Committee, on the midterm report the Malian armed forces to reclaim the north- didates received the required two-thirds of (S/2012/766) of the Group of Experts that ern half of the country pending a report by votes cast from UN members “present and assists the Committee. The report high- the Secretary-General on the military plan- voting.” In the second round, Luxembourg lighted worrying recent security develop- ning for such an intervention—due in late (with 131 votes) was elected ahead of Fin- ments in Côte d’Ivoire, including the exis- November. The resolution also expressed land. The Republic of Korea (149 votes) beat tence of a command centre infrastructure the Council’s readiness to impose targeted Cambodia in the second round after both set up by the pro-Gbagbo rebels in Accra, sanctions against Malian rebel groups “who members had acquired more votes than Bhu- Ghana as well as training camps in eastern do not cut o! all ties to terrorist organisa- tan in the first round but had not achieved a Liberia. The report also cites military actions tions, including Al-Qaida in the Maghreb and two-thirds majority. that have been conducted since early 2012 a"liated groups.” The resolution requested in Côte d’Ivoire from Ghana and the trans- the Secretary General to provide military Syria fer of funds from Ghana to Liberia, which is planners to work with ECOWAS and devise On 24 October, the Security Council issued a identified as a recruitment platform and rear a plan for the deployment of troops from press statement in support of an Eid al-Adha operating base. Earlier in the month, on 16 ECOWAS, which on 18 September had been ceasefire proposed by UN-Arab League Joint October, the Council received a letter from asked by Malian authorities to send in troops Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi fol- the Secretary-General (S/2012/772) not- to help them retake the north. After the res- lowing his briefing in consultations via video- ing that in light of the “deterioration in the olution was adopted, the representatives of conference from Cairo (SC/10800). On 16 security situation in Côte d’Ivoire as well as Mali and Côte d’Ivoire, as chair of ECOWAS, October, Portugal held a closed-Arria for- evolving threats”, it was recommended that made statements thanking the Council for its mula meeting so that Council members could the Council defer the reduction of UNOCI’s support (S/PV.6846). informally meet with Paulo Pinheiro, the military strength—which had been autho- chair of the Human Rights Council’s Com- rised on 26 July in resolution 2062—until Israel/Palestine mission of Inquiry on Syria. Earlier in the after an assessment to be conducted early in On 15 October, the Council held its quar- month, the Council issued two other press 2013. The letter referred to “attacks target- terly open debate on the Middle East. In statements on Syria. On 4 October, following ing national security forces in and around his remarks, Under-Secretary-General for nearly 24 hours of negotiations, the Council Abidjan and along the borders with Ghana Political A!airs Je!rey Feltman asserted “the condemned the shelling of the Turkish town and Liberia, resulting in the killing of Ivorian window of opportunity for taking construc- of Akcakale by Syrian forces (SC/10783). On security personnel and assailants.” tive action to preserve the two-state solution 5 October the Council condemned terror- may now be becoming more limited.” More ist attacks in Aleppo that killed dozens and Women, Peace and Security than 45 other parties (including the repre- injured more than 100 civilians (SC/10784). On 29 October, the Council was set to hold sentatives of Palestine, Israel, Lebanon and its annual open debate on the Secretary-Gen- Syria) made statements during the debate Sudan/Darfur eral’s most recent report on women, peace (S/PV.6847). On 24 October, the Council received a brief- and security (S/2012/732). Guatemala, as ing (S/PV.6851) from Edmond Mulet, the president of the Council in October, had Rule of Law Assistant Secretary-General for Peacekeeping, chosen to focus the debate on women’s civil On 17 October, the Council held an open and held consultations on the Secretary-Gen- society organisations and their contribution debate on “the promotion and strengthen- eral’s latest UNAMID report (S/2012/771). to the prevention and resolution of armed ing of the rule of law in the maintenance The Council also issued two press statements conflict and peacebuilding (S/2012/774).

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Status Update since our October Forecast (con't)

However, the debate was cancelled since UN statement highlighting the impact of wom- Secretary-General’s call for enhanced wom- headquarters was closed in the final days of en’s civil society organisations, recognis- en’s participation, at all levels, in conflict pre- October due to Hurricane Sandy. At press ing the need in the Council’s own work for vention, conflict resolution and peacebuild- time, it seemed the Council would meet more systemic attention to the women, peace ing. It did not seem likely that the debate briefly on 31 October to adopt a presidential and security agenda and welcoming the would be rescheduled.

Open Debate on Piracy

Expected Council Action international law.” Secretary-General’s plan to send an assess- At the initiative of India, the Council is These provisions were later expanded to ment mission to the region to examine the expected to hold an open debate in Novem- allow action on land and have been renewed problem. ber on piracy as a threat to international annually, most recently in resolution 2020 In a report (S/2012/45) submitted to the peace and security. This will be the first time adopted on 22 November 2011. The Coun- Council on 18 January, the assessment mis- that the Council attempts to address piracy cil also called for enhanced international sion concluded that the growing incidence as a global threat by taking an integrated look cooperation to combat piracy o! the coast of of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea constituted at the situation across regions. In the past, the Somalia, leading to the establishment of the a major threat to security in the region Council has addressed piracy o! the coast of International Contact Group on Piracy o! and warned that the consequences of inac- Somalia and in the Gulf of Guinea as sepa- the Coast of Somalia in January 2009. tion could be catastrophic. It also called rate issues. How to ensure accountability for acts of for the development of a regional strategy. Ahead of the debate, India will circulate piracy has been another key focus for the In response, the Council on 29 February a concept note on key issues for considera- Council in the context of Somalia. Most adopted resolution 2039 welcoming the tion. A presidential statement is expected as recently, on 24 October 2011, the Council report and encouraging implementation of an outcome. asked the Secretary-General for a report on its recommendations. how specialised anti-piracy courts could be Despite these e!orts, piracy attacks in the Background and Key Recent established in Somalia and nearby states to Gulf of Guinea increased this year. The Inter- Developments ensure prosecution of suspected pirates. The national Maritime Bureau (IMB) said on 22 In recent years, there has been a steady rise in report (S/2012/50) was issued on 20 January, October that 34 incidents were recorded piracy attacks worldwide, from 239 in 2006 but there has been no follow-up action by the between January and September, up from to 439 in 2011, with most of the increase Council since then. 30 in 2011. Togo reported more attacks so coming from a surge in attacks o! the coast Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea—home to far in 2012 than in the previous five years of Somalia. In 2011, more than half of the major oil producers (Nigeria, Angola, Equa- combined, with three vessels hijacked, two attacks occurred there. The other two main torial Guinea, Gabon and Ghana)—was first boarded and six attempted attacks. piracy hot-spots are West Africa/Gulf of brought to the Council’s attention on 23 By contrast, international e!orts to com- Guinea and Southeast Asia. August 2011, when then-Under-Secretary- bat piracy o! the coast of Somalia seem to In response, and following a request for General for Political A!airs B. Lynn Pascoe have had an impact. The IMB found that the assistance from Somalia, the Council in 2008 briefed the Council on the issue during his number of attacks by pirates fell markedly took up piracy o! the coast of Somalia as a monthly “horizon scanning” briefing. That from 199 in the first nine months of 2011 to regional threat. On 2 June it adopted reso- year, piracy attacks in the Gulf of Guinea had 70 during the same period this year, its lowest lution 1816, authorising states cooperat- increased exponentially. level since 2009. ing with Somali authorities for a period of The Council held an open debate on six months to enter the territorial waters of the issue on 19 October 2011, and on 31 Key Issues Somalia and use all necessary means “for October unanimously adopted resolution A key issue for the Council is how to the purpose of repressing acts of piracy and 2018, which condemned acts of piracy and strengthen the international response to armed robbery at sea, in a manner consist- armed robbery in the region and encour- piracy as a global threat to international ent with such action permitted on the high aged enhanced regional counter-piracy coop- peace and security. seas with respect to piracy under relevant eration. The resolution also welcomed the Another issue is what lessons can be

UN DOCUMENTS ON PIRACY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2039 (29 February 2012) welcomed the report from the Secretary-General’s assessment mission on piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and called on states to implement its recommendations. S/RES/2020 (22 November 2011) renewed for 12 months the anti-piracy measures related to Somalia first established by the Council in 2008. S/RES/2018 (31 October 2011) condemned piracy in the Gulf of Guinea and called for strengthened regional coop- eration. S/RES/2015 (24 October 2011) called for additional measures to strengthen prosecution of Somali pirates and requested a report from the Secretary-General within 90 days. Secretary General’s Reports S/2012/783 (22 October 2012) was the latest Secretary-General’s report on piracy o! the coast of Somalia. S/2012/50 (20 January 2012) was a report providing the Council with detailed implementation proposals for the establishment of specialised anti-piracy courts in Somalia and other states in the region. Security Council Letter S/2012/45 (18 January 2012) was a letter from the Secretary-General transmitting the report from the assessment mission on piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. USEFUL ADDITIONAL SOURCE Calming Troubled Waters: Global and Regional Strategies for Countering Piracy, Special Report, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, August 2012.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Open Debate on Piracy (con't) learned from the experiences gained so far to ensure assistance to hostages and their directly a!ected by the increase in piracy o! at the regional level that may be applied uni- families. the coast of Somalia. It is actively involved versally. These experiences cover areas such in the international naval operations o! as e!ective coordination and cooperation Options the coast of Somalia and will chair the next mechanisms, preventive measures taken by The main option for the Council is to adopt meeting of the Somalia Contact Group on the shipping industry (which include the a presidential statement that would call for Piracy scheduled for 11 December. India has use of privately contracted armed security strengthened international action against expressed a particular concern for the fate of personnel on ships), strengthening legal piracy based on some of the experiences the hostages and their families as its nation- frameworks to ensure accountability for acts already gained and mechanisms in place. als constitute seven percent of the world’s of piracy, capacity-building for states in the Such a statement could also ask the Secre- seafarers. a!ected regions and addressing the root tary-General for a report on piracy at the Other Council members seem to welcome causes of piracy. A related issue is the di!er- global level and recommendations for further India’s initiative. There is general support for ence across regions in the way pirates oper- action. stronger action against piracy although in ate and the capacity of regional states to take the past there have been some di!erences on e!ective action. Council Dynamics certain issues, such as the best strategy for There also seems to be growing recogni- India’s strong concern about piracy is not strengthening prosecution, which may come tion of the human cost of piracy as an issue surprising as much of its trade passes through into play in the negotiations on a presidential deserving more attention, including how the Gulf of Aden and it has therefore been statement.

Somalia

Expected Council Action presidency. (Please refer to a separate brief rollover of the Council’s authorisation in Due to the impact of Hurricane Sandy, it on this debate.) anticipation of the results of the review. In seemed negotiations on the extension of the Also in November, the humanitarian coor- addition, it asked for an immediate expan- authorisation of the AU Mission in Somalia dinator for Somalia is due to submit a report sion of the UN funded support package for (AMISOM) would continue into November. to the Council on implementation of the the mission to cover the cost of an additional At press time, the Council was set to adopt a humanitarian access provisions of resolution fifty civilian personnel to help strengthen sta- one-week technical roll-over of AMISOM’s 2060, which extended the mandate of the bilisation e!orts in recovered areas as well as authorisation before its expiry on 31 October Monitoring Group for Somalia and Eritrea. reimbursement of contingent-owned mari- in order to finalise negotiations on a draft The report will cover implementation of the time assets. resolution that would extend the authorisa- humanitarian exemption to the asset freeze On 16 October, the Council held a debate tion for one year. provision of the sanctions regime and any on Somalia featuring a briefing on recent Later in November, the Council is impediments to the delivery of humanitar- developments by the Secretary-General’s expected to renew the authorisation that has ian assistance in Somalia. As in the past, the Special Representative for Somalia, Augus- been in place since 2008 for international O"ce for the Coordination of Humanitarian tine Mahiga, by video-conference. (AU Com- counter-piracy action within Somali terri- A!airs is likely to brief the Sanctions Com- missioner for Peace and Security Ramtane torial waters and on land in Somalia. The mittee for Somalia and Eritrea on the report. Lamamra was also supposed to brief by authorisation was last renewed in resolution In addition, the chair of the Sanctions Com- video-conference, but was unable to because 2020 of 22 November 2011 for a period of mittee, Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri of technical problems. His written state- 12 months. The Secretary-General’s report (India), is due to brief Council members in ment was later circulated to Council mem- (S/2012/783) on implementation of that reso- consultations on the Committee’s work. bers.) With regard to the ongoing strategic lution and the general situation with regard review of the future UN presence in Soma- to piracy o! the coast of Somalia was circu- Key Recent Developments lia, Mahiga stressed the importance of taking lated to Council members on 22 October. On 12 October, in its latest AMISOM report, into account the views of the new Somali This report is likely to be considered by the the AU said it would conduct a thorough authorities and said this might require an Council in the context of a broader debate on assessment over the next few months on how adjustment in the deadline for reporting back piracy as a global threat to peace and secu- it could best contribute to stabilisation of to the Council. (The Council in resolution rity proposed by India during its November Somalia and asked for a four month technical 2067 asked the Secretary-General to present

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2067 (18 September 2012) was on the end of the transitional period in Somalia, laying out Council expecta- tions for the next phase. S/RES/2060 (25 July 2012) extended the mandate of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea for 13 months as well as the humanitarian exemption to the Somalia sanctions regime for 12 months. S/RES/2036 (22 February 2012) extended the Council’s authorisation of AMISOM until 31 October. S/RES/2020 (22 November 2011) renewed for a period of 12 months the anti-piracy measures first established by the Council in 2008. Secretary General’s Report S/2012/783 (22 October 2012) was the report on Somali piracy. S/2012/643 (22 August 2012) was the latest Secretary-General’s report on Somalia. Security Council Letters S/2012/764 (12 October 2012) contained the most recent 60-day AU report on AMISOM requested by resolution 2036. S/2012/544 (11 July 2012) contained the final report on Somalia of the Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Somalia (con't)

options by 31 December.) branch to deliver basic services to the people. On resolution renewing for another 12 months In Somalia, progress continued along the 28 September, the HRC adopted a resolution on the existing anti-piracy measures and updat- political track. On 17 October, the Parlia- Somalia in which it condemned the grave and sys- ing other relevant provisions from last year. tematic human rights abuses perpetrated against ment endorsed Abdi Farah Shirdon Saaid as the population (including women, children, jour- In addition, the Council could highlight in Prime Minister. (President Hassan Sheikh nalists and human rights defenders), expressed particular the need for Somali authorities Mohamud had nominated him on 6 Octo- deep concern at the continuing attacks against to develop a comprehensive counter-piracy ber.) He was endorsed by all of the 215 journalists in Somalia and reinforced the mandate strategy as referred to above. It could also members of Parliament who were present. At of the independent expert. make explicit reference to the Monitoring press time, a new cabinet had not yet been Key Issues Group’s responsibility for investigating and formed, but its appointment was expected to The extension of the AMISOM authorisa- identifying key individuals engaged in acts of be imminent. tion will remain a key issue for the Council piracy o! the coast of Somalia as well as the Piracy activity o! the coast of Somalia has in November. movement and investment of piracy proceeds. seen a significant drop this year. According to The other main issue is the renewal of On the sanctions side, one option would the Secretary-General’s 22 October report, the anti-piracy authorisation and whether any be for Council members to issue a press the number of attacks by Somali pirates fell revisions or additional provisions should be statement on the humanitarian coordinator’s from 269 in the first nine months of 2011 considered. report on humanitarian access, addressing to 99 during the same period this year. The A related issue is the need for Somali specific concerns expressed in the report. report also said Somali pirates were holding authorities to develop a comprehensive 17 vessels and 224 hostages. It attributed the counter-piracy strategy and implement all Council Dynamics reduction in pirate activity to international the postponed elements of the roadmap for While the Council has expressed its expec- counter-piracy e!orts. It warned, however, ending the transition in Somalia pertaining tation that a new government in Somalia that these gains were fragile and could easily to maritime security, in particular decla- must be appointed expeditiously, Council be reversed. It also noted that despite agree- ration of an exclusive economic zone and members seem to share the view that it is ment on the need to address the root causes adoption by Parliament of a complete set of important for the next phase to be Somali of piracy, “a significant gap still exists in land- anti-piracy laws. led and to give space for the ongoing political based programmes in Somalia to address Another issue is whether to take up any of process without too much outside pressure. piracy.” the recommendations related to piracy from At press time, because the absence of a gov- At press time, Council members were the 11 July report of the Monitoring Group ernment seemed to delay the UN strategic negotiating a draft resolution that would for Somalia and Eritrea, such as designating review, as alluded to by Mahiga in his brief- extend the authorisation for AMISOM and known pirates or their associates for targeted ing, it was also expected that the Secretary- its UN funded support package for one year. sanctions or making explicit reference to the General would ask for an extension of at least The resolution, expected to be adopted in Monitoring Group’s role in the fight against one month of the deadline to report back to early November, would express the Coun- piracy in the upcoming resolution. the Council on options for the future UN cil’s intention to review the operation within A further key issue in November is presence. six months, based on the conclusions of the humanitarian access and whether the sanc- With regard to the AMISOM resolution, review announced by the AU. In addition, the tions provisions are having a positive impact. extending the authorisation for one year resolution would expand the support pack- (In spite of recent security gains, the access instead of four months as requested by the age as requested by the AU to provide fund- situation in Somalia is still di"cult, as evi- AU was uncontroversial. It was apparently ing for an additional fifty civilian personnel. denced by the recent decision by Al Sha- mainly driven by practical considerations to It seemed unlikely, however, that it would baab, announced on 8 October, to ban the provide more flexibility for the review pro- authorise the reimbursement of maritime UK-based humanitarian aid organisation cess in case of any delays. The main stick- assets that the AU had also asked for. Instead, Islamic Relief from operating in areas under ing point in the negotiations has so far been it would express the Council’s intention to its control.) the question of funding for maritime assets revisit this issue as part of the review. An overall longer-term issue once the new requested by the AU. It seems that while Somali government is in place is the need for some Council members strongly support it, Human Rights-Related Developments progress on all key post-transitional priorities including India and South Africa, the US and On 26 September, during its 21st session, the agreed at the 26 September mini-summit on European members are against it. Their main Human Rights Council (HRC) held an interactive Somalia as well as implementation of relevant argument seemed to be that more details are dialogue with the independent expert on the situ- elements of resolution 2067, which spelled needed about the utility and mandate of a ation of human rights in Somalia, Shamsul Bari. Bari said that despite continuing violence the out the Council’s expectations for the next maritime component and what sort of capa- situation in Somalia was more hopeful. Returning phase in Somalia. bilities would be needed and that it would from a visit to Mogadishu in early September, he therefore be best to wait for the results of the said the first tasks before Somalia included the Options review before making a decision on funding. establishment of the rule of law and rebuilding the In addition to the AMISOM resolution, the At press time, discussions on the piracy justice sector. It was also crucial for the executive main option for the Council is to adopt a resolution had not yet begun, but it was

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Somalia (con't) expected that the anti-piracy measures community to fight piracy (a request which, The UK is the lead country on Somalia in would be extended again. While the new in the form of a letter, has always preceded the Council, while India chairs the Sanctions Somali authorities had not yet renewed the the adoption of these measures in the past), it Committee and Russia has the lead on legal request for assistance from the international was anticipated that they would do so. issues related to piracy.

Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action the parties have not been able to reach agree- shelled Kadugli, the capital of South Kordo- The Council is expected to meet twice in ment on critical issues, including the status fan, allegedly in response to aerial bombings November on Sudan and South Sudan issues of Abyei and disputed border areas. Regard- of their positions outside the city by Sudan. in accordance with resolution 2046. In the ing South Kordofan and Blue Nile states in In an 11 October letter to the Council from context of these meetings, and in keeping Sudan, Ladsous said that the humanitarian Sudan (S/2012/759), Khartoum alleged that with its presidential statement of 31 August situation was deteriorating and that clashes the SPLM-N attack claimed the lives of (S/PRST/2012/19), the Council will likely between Sudan and the SPLM-N continued seven civilians, including three children, and consider the 24 October report of the AU in these states. wounded 22 others. (The SPLM-N has said High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) On 16 October, Council members con- that it was targeting military objectives and and the related communiqué of the AU vened again to discuss Sudan and South regretted any loss of civilian life.) Al-Sawarmi Peace and Security Council (PSC), which Sudan. Ladsous, again briefing, said that he Khalid, a spokesman for the Sudanese Armed outline the status of negotiations between was unable to report concrete developments Forces (SAF), claimed that 15 SPLM-N reb- Sudan, South Sudan and the Sudan People’s on implementation of the 27 September els had been killed and many others wounded Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) agreements. He added that Sudan and the outside Kadugli on 14 October. He also said and o!er proposals for resolving the remain- SPLM-N had yet to engage in direct negotia- that Sudan had repulsed an SPLM-N assault ing issues separating them. tions regarding their conflict in South Kordo- near Annagarko and Hgerjawad villages in The Council may also consider the Secre- fan and Blue Nile. South Kordofan on 12 October. Fighting tary-General’s report on the same matters, if The 27 September Addis Ababa agree- outside Talodi in South Kordofan also led to the report is released in time for Council con- ments were ratified by South Sudan and the deaths of 12 SPLM-N troops, according sideration in November. At press time, the Sudan on 16 and 17 October, respectively. In to a 15 October statement by Ahmed Haroun, timeframe for the report’s release remained South Sudan, 189 of 204 legislators endorsed the governor of South Kordofan. unclear. the agreements. The remaining 15 endorsed On 18 October, the Enough Project pub- It was also unclear at press time how the all elements of the deal, except for the agree- lished a report entitled “Rapid Food Security Council would decide to respond to the ment that includes a 14-mile strip of land and Nutrition Assessment: South Kordofan”, findings of the AUHIP, the PSC and the between Sudan and South Sudan (along the produced by an NGO wishing to remain Secretary-General. Darfur-Bahr el Ghazal border) temporarily anonymous. Based on an assessment con- The Council is also expected to renew the as part of a demilitarised bu!er zone between ducted between 5 and 19 August, it found mandate of the UN Interim Security Force the two countries. (They seem to believe that that in South Kordofan “81.5 percent of in Abyei (UNISFA) for six months before it including it as part of the bu!er zone could households are surviving on only one meal a expires on 17 November. weaken any claims to it in future negotia- day, and 73.2 percent of households have no tions.) Nearly all Sudanese parliamentarians source of income.” Key Recent Developments (352 of 354) voted in favour of the various On 23 October, a large explosion at the The Council in October discussed Sudan/ agreements, although some expressed con- Al-Yarmook military factory near Khartoum South Sudan issues twice in consultations. cern with the “four freedoms” agreement, killed two people. In a letter to the Council In the first of these meetings, on 4 October, which gives Sudanese and South Sudanese on 25 October (S/2012/790), Sudan accused Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping the right to live, work, travel and own prop- Israel of the attack. At press time, Israel had Operations Hervé Ladsous emphasised the erty in each other’s territory. not responded to the accusation. (Sudan need for the two countries to implement the Developments on the ground have contin- has made allegations against Israel in the agreements they had signed on 27 Septem- ued to be troubling. Sudan and the SPLM- past of attacking military targets on its ter- ber on oil, border security, trade, nationality N continued fighting throughout October in ritory, while Israel has claimed that arms are rights and other issues. He also noted that South Kordofan. On 8 October, the SPLM-N shipped via Sudan to Islamic militants in the

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2047 (17 May 2012) renewed UNISFA’s mandate. S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) was on Sudan-South Sudan relations. Security Council Press Statement SC/10779 (28 September 2012) welcomed the 27 September agreements. Security Council Letters S/2012/790 (25 October 2012) was a letter from Sudan accusing Israel of attacking a military factory. S/2012/759 (11 October 2012) was a letter from Sudan accusing the SPLM-N of “complicating and obstructing the implementation of the tripartite initiative.” USEFUL ADDITIONAL SOURCES PSC/MIN/COMM/1 (CCCXXXIX) (24 October 2012) is the communiqué of the PSC responding to the AUHIP report. PSC/PR/2 (CCCXXXIX) (24 October 2012) is the AUHIP report. PSC/PR/COMM. (CCCXXIX) (3 August 2012) was a communiqué of the PSC on the status of negotiations between the parties.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Sudan and South Sudan (con't)

Middle East.) with concern the humanitarian situation in South With respect to UNISFA, the most likely The AUHIP submitted its report on Kordofan and Blue Nile and called upon all parties option for the Council is to renew the man- Sudan-South Sudan relations to the PSC on to make every e!ort to immediately end violence. date of the mission for an additional six 24 October. In the report, the AUHIP sug- months. In renewing the mandate, members gested that the PSC allow Sudan and South Key Issues may also choose to emphasise the impor- Sudan to negotiate for an additional six On Sudan-South Sudan relations, a key issue tance of establishing the Joint Border Verifi- weeks to resolve the status of Abyei and for is how to encourage the two parties to imple- cation and Monitoring Mechanism as expe- an additional two weeks to resolve the status ment the 27 September agreements and ditiously as possible. of the disputed areas along their mutual bor- build on the progress to resolve the remain- der. If the parties are unable to resolve these ing issues separating them. Council Dynamics issues in the allotted time frame, the AUHIP A related issue is how the Council decides While encouraged that the 27 September recommends that the PSC should “take the to respond to the report of the AUHIP, the agreements have been ratified by Sudan and necessary decisions.” communiqué of the PSC, and, if released in South Sudan, it seems that several Coun- The PSC issued a communiqué on 24 November, the Secretary-General’s report on cil members appear concerned about the October that responded to the AUHIP report. Sudan and South Sudan. need to implement them e!ectively. There is In this communiqué, the PSC requested the An ongoing issue is the humanitarian cri- also concern about the tensions between the parties to resolve the status of Abyei within sis in South Kordofan and Blue Nile and the two countries being exacerbated as long as six weeks, using the AUHIP 21 September need to compel the parties to implement the agreements are not reached on the remain- proposal as a basis for discussion. (According memoranda of understanding that they have ing outstanding matters, including the status to this proposal, a referendum would be held signed with the AU, the UN and the Arab of Abyei and the disputed territories along that includes the participation of the Ngok League to permit the delivery of humanitar- their border. Dinka and other permanent residents of ian assistance to civilian populations in these There continues to be widespread alarm Abyei to determine whether the area belongs states. (There are approximately 700,000 among Council members concerning the to Sudan or South Sudan.) If, after six weeks, IDPs in South Kordofan and Blue Nile.) humanitarian crisis in South Kordofan and the parties have not reached an agreement, A related issue is how to compel Sudan Blue Nile. Some members place the blame then the PSC “will endorse the September and the SPLM-N to agree to a ceasefire and largely on Khartoum for preventing humani- 2012 Proposal as final and binding, and… to engage in direct negotiations with one tarian access to civilians and believe that the seek the endorsement by the UN Security another on political matters. Council should pressure the regime more Council of the same”. The PSC also decided On UNISFA, a key issue is the need to strongly to allow access to both states. Others that if the parties are unable to resolve the establish a bu!er zone along the Sudan- are less critical of Khartoum, noting delays status of contested areas along their border South Sudan border, in accordance with in the SPLM-N’s response to the action within two weeks, the AUHIP should submit the 27 September agreement, thus enabling plan for aid distribution presented by the a proposal to the PSC, “which will then make UNISFA to fulfill its mandated role to par- AU, the UN and the Arab League. Some of a final and binding determination and seek ticipate in the Joint Border Verification and these members also believe that more pres- the endorsement of the UN Security Council Monitoring Mechanism. sure should be placed on the SPLM-N, as of the same”. well as other rebels in Sudan, to negotiate Options with Khartoum, and are especially critical Human Rights-Related Developments Options for the Council include: of their professed goal to overthrow the gov- On 26 September during its 21st session, the t
to await the Secretary-General’s report ernment. Several members also appear to Human Rights Council (HRC) held an interac- before making any significant decisions; believe that a cessation of hostilities, in addi- tive dialogue with the independent expert on the t
to hold, in the meantime, an informal tion to political dialogue between the parties, situation of human rights in Sudan, Mashood A. Baderin. Baderin said that despite the general interactive dialogue meeting with Thabo would help facilitate aid delivery to civilians willingness of Sudan to fulfill its human rights obli- Mbeki, the chair of the AUHIP, to get his in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. (Sudan gations, the situation in Darfur, South Kordofan assessment of the state of a!airs between and the SPLM-N did not engage in direct and Blue Nile states required urgent attention, the parties and a nuanced understanding negotiations during the Addis Ababa talks in in particular the condition of refugees and IDPs of the AUHIP’s report; September.) and the granting of access to humanitarian actors. Speakers shared concerns about the human t
to consider a statement that welcomes the The US is the lead country on Sudan- rights situation in Sudan and called on the gov- AUHIP report and the related PSC com- South Sudan issues. ernment to take steps to urgently address them. muniqué; or On 28 September, the HRC adopted a resolution t
to hold an “Arria formula” meeting with on Sudan renewing the independent expert’s experts to discuss the various proposals, mandate for another year and urging the govern- ment of Sudan to continue its cooperation with which are outlined in the AUHIP report the independent expert, including by giving him and the PSC communiqué, as well as the access to the entire country, in particular Darfur, proposals that may be discussed in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan. The Council noted Secretary-General’s report.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 7 South Sudan

Expected Council Action a 24 August press statement, UNMISS noted as soon as November. In November, the Council will likely hold that from 15 July to 20 August, its moni- The humanitarian situation in South a briefing and consultations to consider the toring teams “reported alleged violations Sudan continued to be very challenging. The Secretary-General’s report on the UN Mis- including one killing, 27 allegations of tor- UN High Commission for Refugees esti- sion in South Sudan (UNMISS), expected to ture or ill-treatment (such as beatings and mates that over 175,000 refugees from South be released in early November. At press time, simulated drowning in some cases), 12 rapes, Kordofan and Blue Nile states in Sudan now no outcome was anticipated. six attempted rapes and eight abductions.” It reside in South Sudan in Unity and Upper The mandate of UNMISS expires on 15 added that most of the victims were women Nile states. One serious health problem in July 2013. and some were children. In the statement, Upper Nile has been the outbreak of Hepa- UNMISS also called on South Sudan to “take titis E starting in September, and the risk Key Recent Developments immediate action to safeguard recent gains in remains that cholera or other water-borne On 9 August, the International Monetary the peace process, stem human rights viola- diseases could break out as well, given poor Fund (IMF) decided to include South Sudan tions in Pibor county and hold perpetrators sanitary conditions. among the 72 countries entitled to receive to account.” On 23 August, Human Rights interest free loans. These loans, eligible to Watch published an open letter to President Human Rights-Related Developments low-income countries, would be provided Salva Kiir, urging him to hold accountable On 28 September, the Human Rights Council through its Poverty Reduction and Growth security forces responsible for human rights adopted a resolution on South Sudan calling on Trust. (In April, South Sudan became the violations during the disarmament process. the government to strengthen ongoing coop- eration with UNMISS on issues pertaining to the 188th country to join the IMF.) Amnesty International published a report promotion and protection of human rights and In August, rebel forces led by David Yau on 3 October in which it detailed numerous encouraging the continuous commitment by the Yau ambushed South Sudanese soldiers in human rights abuses committed by South government to resolve all the outstanding post- Pibor county in Jonglei state. Twenty-four Sudanese security forces in Pibor county Comprehensive Peace Agreement issues with the South Sudanese troops were confirmed dead from March through August during the dis- government of Sudan. as a result of the attack, and a dozen others armament campaign. were wounded. Media reports have also indi- Sudan and South Sudan signed agree- Key Issues cated that large numbers of additional gov- ments in Addis Ababa on 27 September One key issue is how to address the allega- ernment troops were missing and presumed on oil transport and revenue, cross-border tions of misconduct against South Sudanese dead after the assault. (Yau Yau is a mem- trade, border security and nationality issues. security forces conducting the disarmament ber of the Murle ethnic group, which has (The parties were unable to resolve other campaign in Jonglei state. su!ered significant casualties over the past key issues, including the status of Abyei and A related issue is the Council’s approach year in incidents of inter-communal violence. disputed territories along the Sudan-South toward the recent fighting between rebel Some analysts believe that his movement has Sudan border.) These agreements were rati- forces led by Yau Yau and South Sudanese gained support from the Murle, who have fied by the parliaments of South Sudan and armed forces. been angered by the “Operation Restore Sudan on 16 and 17 October, respectively. Another related issue is how to best nur- Peace” disarmament program that the gov- On 18 October, the South Sudanese gov- ture reconciliation among ethnic groups in ernment launched in Jonglei in March. They ernment gave orders to oil firms to begin pro- Jonglei state, where inter-communal violence believe that disarming leaves them vulnerable duction after a nine-month standstill. Gov- has been a major challenge over the past year. to attacks from other ethnic groups.) ernment o"cials indicated that South Sudan An additional issue is how to assist South It was also reported in the media in early could begin exporting oil again in roughly Sudan in coping with the refugee crisis in October that Yau Yau’s forces had taken con- 90 days. (Juba initiated the shutdown after Unity and Upper Nile states. trol of some villages in Pibor county. Joshua accusing Khartoum of stealing $815 million A further issue is how to help South Konyi, commissioner of Pibor county, also worth of oil being transported through Sudan Sudan strengthen state institutions and man- accused the rebels of killing civilians, raid- from South Sudan.) age humanitarian challenges, given the dif- ing cattle and displacing hundreds of people Deng Alor, South Sudan’s Minister for ficulties in the country’s economic situation. in Pibor. Cabinet A!airs, announced on 24 Octo- A related issue is how quickly the Addis In recent months, UNMISS and interna- ber that his county had o!ered to mediate Ababa agreements on oil and cross-border tional NGOs have expressed concerns with between Ethiopia and Eritrea to help resolve trade will be implemented and what impact alleged human rights violations committed their long-standing border dispute. He added they will have in strengthening South Sudan’s by South Sudanese soldiers and police dur- that both countries had accepted the o!er, economy. ing the disarmament campaign in Jonglei. In and that the mediation process could begin

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2057 (5 July 2012) renewed UNMISS until 15 July 2013. S/RES/1997 (11 July 2011) liquidated UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS). S/RES/1996 (8 July 2011) established UNMISS. Latest Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/486 (26 June 2012) was the most recent Secretary-General’s report on UNMISS. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General Hilde Johnson (Norway). UNMISS Force Commander Maj. Gen. Moses Bisong Obi (Nigeria). Maximum Authorised Strength Up to 7,000 military personnel. Up to 900 civilian police personnel. Strength (as of August 2012) 6,633 total uniformed personnel (including 5,975 troops, 130 military liaison o"cers and 528 police). 802 international civilian personnel. Mission also includes 1,388 local civilian sta! and 336 UN volunteers. USEFUL ADDITIONAL SOURCES Humanitarian Bulletin, South Sudan, O"ce for the Coordination of Humanitarian A!airs, 15-21 October 2012. Letter to South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir on the Violence in Jonglei State, Human Rights Watch, 23 August 2012. South Sudan: Lethal Disarmament, Abuses Related to Civilian Disarmament in Pibor County, Jonglei State, Amnesty International, 3 October 2012.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 South Sudan (con't)

Options Council Dynamics its oil production earlier this year and by the Options for the Council include: Council members have been focused primar- large number of refugees residing in South t
listening to the briefing but taking no ily on Sudan-South Sudan issues in recent Sudan who have fled conflict and food inse- action at the current time; months, given the tensions between the two curity in neighbouring South Kordofan and t
inviting the UN High Commissioner for countries and the intensive negotiations in Blue Nile states. There has also been concern Refugees and the Under-Secretary-Gen- which they have been engaged. In Novem- in the Council with the inter-communal vio- eral for Humanitarian A!airs to brief the ber, the Council will have the opportunity to lence in Jonglei state and with allegations of Council on the humanitarian situation, focus more substantively on South Sudan in abuse by South Sudanese police and military especially challenges facing refugees in particular, although there is awareness that during the disarmament campaign. Unity and Upper Nile states; and many of the challenges facing the new coun- The US is the lead country on South t
adopting a statement that calls on South try are linked to its relations with Sudan. Sudan. Sudan to strengthen training standards for Several Council members have been very security forces conducting the disarma- concerned about the di"cult humanitarian ment campaign in Jonglei state and urging situation in South Sudan, which has been South Sudan to ensure proper oversight of exacerbated by the austerity measures the their activities. government put in place after shutting down

Democratic Republic of Congo

Expected Council Action statement condemning the M23 and urging DRC and emphasised the need to address In November, the Council plans to renew the the full investigation of credible reports of the root causes of the current crisis. sanctions regime covering the Democratic outside support to the armed group. The Council held an informal interactive Republic of Congo (DRC) and the mandate On 26 June, the Council held consulta- dialogue with Rwandan Foreign Minister of the Group of Experts assisting the 1533 tions on DRC sanctions following receipt of Louise Mushikiwabo and DRC representa- DRC Sanctions Committee, both of which the interim report of the Group of Experts tives on 29 August. The dialogue followed a expire on 30 November. on the DRC and a briefing by Mehdiyev in meeting of the 1533 Committee with the par- The chair of the Committee, Ambassador his capacity as chair of the 1533 Committee. ties. Rwanda’s request to address the Coun- Agshin Mehdiyev (Azerbaijan), is expected After a briefing by Meece on 10 July, the cil was in response to the 26 June Group of to brief the Council on the Group’s annual Council issued a press statement on 16 July Experts report which asserted that Rwanda report. The Committee will convene to dis- condemning all outside support for any was supporting the M23. (Media reports cuss the annual report that was submitted armed groups in the DRC and demand- indicate that Germany, the Netherlands, the in October. ing that all forms of support for them cease UK and the US have cut development assis- Roger Meece, the Secretary-Gener- immediately. tance to Rwanda as a result.) al’s Special Representative and head of Following a video-teleconference briefing Rwanda presented the Council with its the UN Stabilisation Mission in the DRC by Meece on 30 July, the Council released own report, questioning the working methods (MONUSCO), will brief the Council. another press statement on 2 August con- of the Group of Experts and denying their MONUSCO’s mandate expires on 30 June. demning attacks by the M23 and calling for allegations. Mushikiwabo also argued that the cessation of all outside support for the the coordinator of the Group, Steve Hege Key Recent Developments armed group. (US), has expressed a bias against Rwanda The rebel group M23—a source of instabil- On 27 August, Under Secretary-Gen- in previous writings. (Rwanda has also sent a ity in the region and of massive displacement eral for Humanitarian A!airs Valerie Amos letter to this e!ect to the Secretary-General.) of civilians—has been at the centre of DRC- briefed the Council on the humanitarian Hege responded to the allegations during the related Council activities in recent months. e!ects of the fighting in eastern DRC. She 1533 Committee meeting and explained the On 15 June, following a 12 June briefing focused on the influx of internally displaced basis of the Group’s report. Council mem- by Meece, Council members released a press persons and refugees to Rwanda from eastern bers expressed support for the Group and for

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2053 (27 June 2012) extended the mandate of MONUSCO until 30 June 2013. S/RES/2021 (29 Nov 2011) extended the DRC sanctions and the mandate of the Group of Experts to 30 November 2012. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/22 (19 October 2012) was on the unrest caused by the M23 on the DRC. Latest Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/355 (23 May 2012). Latest Group of Expert’s Report S/2012/348 (21 June 2012) and S/2012/348/Add.1 (26 June 2012) were the interim reports of the Group, discussing Rwanda’s support for the M23. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6785 (12 June 2012) was the latest public briefing by Meece. Letter S/2012/768 (12 October 2012) was the ICGLR declaration following the 8 October summit. Security Council Press Statements SC/10736 (2 August 2012) condemned attacks by the M23 rebel group and called for the cessation of all outside support to M23. SC/10709 (16 July 2012) condemned all outside support to all armed groups in the DRC. SC/10702 (6 July 2012) condemned attacks by the M23 group. SC/10675 (15 June 2012) condemned attacks by the M23 group. Other SG/2188 (27 September 2012) was the summary of the high-level event on the DRC. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission Roger Meece (US). MONUSCO Force Commander Lt. Gen. Chander Prakash (India). MONUSCO Size, Composition and Cost of Mission Strength as of 30 September 2012: 16,996 troops, 721 military observers, 1,392 police, 965 international civilian personnel, 2,886 local civilian sta! and 577 UN volunteers. Approved budget: (1 July 2012-30 June 2013): $1.402 billion. Mission Duration 30 November 1999 to present: mandate expires on 30 June 2013.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Democratic Republic of Congo (con't)

dialogue between the warring parties. Some dialogue between the DRC and its neigh- who she said were committing serious human members said that the Group backed its alle- bours, especially Rwanda. It asks the Secre- rights violations in eastern DRC. She said the gations with solid evidence. The DRC called tary-General to prepare a special report for surge was exacerbated by the April desertions and the formation of the M23 rebel group. on the 1533 Committee to sanction the M23, the Council on possible options, and their its leaders and Rwandan o"cials. implications, for reinforcing MONUSCO to Secretariat o"cials have provided regular improve its ability to implement its mandate, Key Issues briefings about developments on the ground. including protecting civilians and reporting The key issue for the Council is to determine On 18 September, Council members were on flows of arms and related materiel across what role it can play in achieving a solution briefed in consultations by Under Secretary- borders. to the impasse between the DRC, Rwanda General for Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous The presidential statement also welcomed and Uganda and in ending outside support on his recent trip to the region. And on 10 the work of the Group of Experts, though for the M23 movement. October, Council members were briefed by it did not address its latest annual report, The immediate issues for the Council in Edmond Mulet, Assistant Secretary-General which was circulated to the 1533 Commit- November are the renewal of the sanctions for Peacekeeping, on the deteriorating situ- tee in mid-October. Media reports suggest regime and the mandate of the Group of ation in the eastern DRC, in particular the that the latest report asserts that Rwandan Experts and considering the latter’s annual activities of the M23. He told the Council Defence Minister, Gen. James Kabarebe, is report and its conclusions. that the rebels were creating a parallel admin- the de facto head of the chain of command istration in eastern Congo and continuing to of the M23 rebellion and that Rwanda and Options fight the DRC army, uprooting more than Uganda have funnelled weapons and troops Options for the Council include: 300,000 people in recent months. to the rebels. Both Kampala and Kigali have t
renewing the mandate of the sanctions Mulet also updated the Council on the denied the accusations. regime and of the Group of Experts; initiative of the International Conference On 27 June the Council renewed t
addressing the recommendations and on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) to MONUSCO’s mandate in resolution 2053. conclusions of the Group’s annual report establish a neutral international force that The resolution emphasises that the protection and considering sanctions in the 1533 would monitor the DRC-Rwanda border of civilians remains the priority of the mission, Committee against the heads of M23 and area. The ICGLR has said the force should but stresses the importance of security sector those assisting them; consist of 4,000 soldiers and be deployed reform within the stabilisation mandate of t
monitoring the security situation closely under the mandate of the AU and the UN. MONUSCO. The mandate contains specific and responding to the ICGLR initiative Media reports suggest that the countries of requests for the Secretary-General to report as it plays out; the Southern African Development Com- on stabilisation e!orts. On election support t
calling on the states and groups concerned munity (SADC) are ready to deploy their for the provincial and local elections, which to negotiate a political solution to the cri- troops as part of this initiative. Meeting in are expected to be held in 2013, the new sis in North Kivu; and Kampala on 8 October, the ICGLR heads of mandate maintains MONUSCO’s logistical t
taking a more active role and considering state adopted a declaration that directed its support role. However, it emphasises that the the appointment of a UN Special Envoy military assessment team to develop and sub- support given will be continually reviewed to facilitate talks between the disputing mit a concept of operations for the neutral in order to assess progress made by the parties, or calling on the head of the UN force by 25 October and also mandated the DRC in ensuring the credibility of electoral Regional O"ce for Central Africa, Abou ICGLR chairman to implement the concept institutions. Moussa, to take that role. of operation. On 27 September, a high-level meeting In the wake of the Mulet briefing and a on the DRC took place on the margins of Council Dynamics series of press statements in which Council the General Assembly. The Secretary-Gen- While the AU members on the Council are members conveyed their views on the crisis in eral attended the meeting, as did 23 coun- generally supportive of the ICGLR initiative, the DRC, France circulated a draft presiden- tries (including the DRC and Rwanda) and most Council members are sceptical about tial statement. On 19 October, the Council representatives of the AU, EU, ICGLR and the feasibility of establishing an international adopted the statement which demands that SADC. The meeting failed to produce the neutral force in the near future. Council all support for armed groups cease immedi- desired communiqué, though a summary of members are therefore in agreement that a ately and expresses deep concern at reports the meeting was released, similar in content political solution between the DRC, Rwanda indicating that such support continues to be and language to the Council’s 19 October and the M23 to end the fighting and address provided to the M23 by neighbouring coun- presidential statement. its root causes is necessary. Such a force also tries. It also expresses its intention to apply raises issues of added resources and coor- targeted sanctions against the leadership of Human Rights-Related Developments dination with MONUSCO, which Council M23 and those acting in violation of the sanc- At the opening of the 21st session of the Human members have concerns with. For the time tions regime. Rights Council, High Commissioner for Human being, Council members are not voicing In addition, the statement stresses the Rights Navi Pillay expressed concern about the their positions on the neutral force until they surge in attacks on civilians by armed groups, urgency of constructive engagement and receive specific details and terms of operation.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Democratic Republic of Congo (con't)

The most recent dynamic is the growing despite allegations by the Group of Experts response to highlight concern and to signal support among several Council members to and others that Rwanda and Uganda are that the Council is looking for solutions to sanction the leaders of M23, as the violence actively supporting the group. the situation. Generally, Council members and the humanitarian crisis in the east per- Such action may, however, be considered felt that the language of the statement was sist, a point supported by the latest Group of in light of the Group’s annual report and its comprehensive and conveyed the intent of Expert’s annual report. In the past, the 1533 recommendations for listing certain groups the Council to take action on this issue if the Committee has taken many months, some- and individuals, especially if outside assis- situation persists. times more than a year, to agree on adding tance to the M23 persists. Council members Negotiations for the October presidential a name to the sanctions list. This is due in are also conscious that Rwanda will join the statement started a few days before the Secu- part to the vetting process that some Council Council in 2013, and this may be a factor in rity Council elections. The statement was members undertake before approving sanc- November when considering the renewal of adopted the day after Rwanda was elected tions against individuals and also in part due the sanctions regime. as a non-permanent member of the Council to political considerations. Sanctions against Regarding the 19 October presidential starting in 2013. (Rwanda was endorsed by state o"cials alleged to be connected to the statement, it seems that France felt it was the AU and ran uncontested for the “African M23 are not being considered at this time, important to have a more formal Council seat” on the Council.)

Sierra Leone

Expected Council Action post-election tasks, including the prepara- ($23) to 25 million leones (about $5,764). The Council will likely be briefed in Novem- tion of a transition plan and exit strategy. It With the government’s announcement, the ber by Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen (Den- called on the government and all political fees reverted to the previous rates for all mark), the Executive Representative of the parties in the country to “promote a culture candidates. Secretary-General in Sierra Leone and head of non-violence.” The participation of women in the elec- of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding O"ce (The Council last considered Sierra toral process at all levels—a key Council con- in Sierra Leone (UNIPSIL), as well as by Leone on 9 October, when it received a cern—may have been negatively a!ected by Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Can- briefing from Justice Shireen Avis Fisher, the July increase in nomination fees. On 15 ada), chair of the Sierra Leone configuration the President of the Special Court for Sierra October, when the NEC published the fig- of the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), Leone, and Brenda Hollis, the Chief Pros- ures for candidates for public o"ce, all nine after presidential and parliamentary elections ecutor of the Court, on the residual work of presidential contenders were men, and out in Sierra Leone on 17 November, in line with the Court. That briefing led to a presiden- of the 586 parliamentary candidates, only 38 resolution 2065. tial statement (S/PRST/2012/21) in which were women. This is below the regional aver- A press statement will be the likely out- the Council emphasised the “vital need for age, and far below the target set by the Beijing come. The mandate of UNIPSIL expires on further pledges of voluntary contributions in Platform for Action following the landmark 31 March 2013. order to allow the Special Court to complete 1995 Fourth World Conference on Women. its mandate in a timely manner.”) The Human Rights Commission of Sierra Key Recent Developments Two days after resolution 2065 was Leone had warned on 14 August that the On 12 September, the Council adopted reso- adopted, the government announced the fee increases constituted “a potential ground lution 2065 extending UNIPSIL’s mandate reversal of astronomical increases in nomina- for discrimination against low income earn- and requesting a briefing from the Secretary- tion fees for presidential, parliamentary and ers and vulnerable groups,” including women. General on the conduct and outcome of the local council candidates. Christiana Thorpe, The reduction in fees may have come too late. elections “shortly after” the elections. This the chair of the National Electoral Commis- On 2 October, the NEC released the o"- followed a briefing from Toyberg-Frandzen sion (NEC), had announced the increases cial voter registration figure, stating that the and Rishchynski. The resolution authorised on 31 July: the fee for presidential candidates final roll this year is 2,692,635 voters. UNIPSIL to assist Sierra Leone through went from 1 million leones (about $230) to The AU has announced the deployment of elections in November and also man- 100 million leones ($23,057.40) and for par- 40 election observers, and the Carter Center dated the mission to perform a number of liamentary candidates from 100,000 leones has already deployed a team that will be led

UN DOCUMENTS ON SIERRA LEONE Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2065 (12 September 2012) extended the mandate of UNIPSIL until 31 March 2013 and requested a briefing from the Secretary-General “shortly after” elections in Sierra Lone on 17 November. S/RES/2005 (14 September 2011) extended the mandate of UNIPSIL until 15 September 2012. Latest Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/679 (31 August 2012) covers the period from 1 March to 31 August 2012. S/2012/160 (14 March 2012) covers the period from 1 September 2011 to 29 February 2012. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6829 (11 September 2012) was the Council’s meeting on Sierra Leone. S/PV.6777 (31 May 2012) was the Council’s meeting on West Africa. S/PV.6739 (22 March 2012) was the Council’s meeting on UNIPSIL. Peacebuilding Commission A/66/675–S/2012/70 (30 January 2012) was the report of the PBC on its fifth session. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Executive Representative of the Secretary-General and head of UNIPSIL Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen (Denmark). Size and Composition of Mission Sta! strength (as of 30 September 2012): 35 international civilians, 31 local civilians, eight UN volunteers and seven police. Duration 1 October 2008 to present. Chair of the Sierra Leone Configuration of the PBC Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada). USEFUL ADDITIONAL SOURCE Solomon E. Berewa, A New Perspective on Governance, Leadership, Conflict and Nation Building in Sierra Leone, (Bloomington, IN: AuthorHouse, 2011).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Sierra Leone (con't)

by former Zambian President Rupiah Banda. Underlying Problems refused to sign the results because of the The Economic Community of West African The elections will be the second since the invalidation). He claimed to have accepted States and the EU will also be deploying UN withdrew a large peacekeeping force the results only in the interest of the peace monitors. from Sierra Leone in 2006, replacing it with and stability of the country. a small peacebuilding o"ce. The elections of Developments in the Peacebuilding 2007 successfully led to the transfer of power Key Issues Commission (PBC) from the ruling Sierra Leone Peoples’ Party The key issue for the Council is that the The PBC’s Sierra Leone configuration met on (SLPP) to the All People’s Congress (APC) November elections are not only conducted 2 October in New York. The meeting, which led by President Ernest Bai Koroma, but they peacefully, but that the results are broadly focused on the forthcoming elections in Sierra were contentious. Thorpe, at the head of the accepted and seen as legitimate. Leone, included statements by Minister of Foreign A!airs Joseph B. Dauda and Minister of Finance NEC, invalidated 169,054 votes from 477 A closely related issue is the fact that Samura Kamara (via video-link from Freetown), as polling stations on the grounds that there broad acceptance of the electoral outcome well as representatives of Benin, Egypt, Indonesia, had been “over-voting” in those stations and would allow for a smooth transition of UNIP- the UK and the US, among others. At the end of that the invalidations “have not a!ected the SIL to a UN country o"ce in 2013. the meeting, Rishchynski, who chaired the pro- outcome.” But almost all the stations where ceedings, announced a field trip to Sierra Leone from 31 October to 6 November, ahead of the votes were invalidated were in areas that vote Council Dynamics elections. (Resolution 2065 encourages the PBC overwhelmingly for the SLPP. Its presidential Council members view Sierra Leone as a suc- “to continue providing support to the government candidate, Solomon Berewa, contended that cess story and are in agreement that the out- of Sierra Leone, UNIPSIL and the United Nations had Thorpe not invalidated the votes the final come of the elections should determine the country team in the preparation and conduct of result would have been 969,705 votes cast in nature of the transition process. the 2012 elections.”) his favour and 950,407 votes cast in favour The UK is the lead country in the Council of Koroma (two of the NEC commissioners on Sierra Leone.

Western Sahara

Expected Council Action then-head of MINURSO, Hany Abdel-Aziz, Morocco informed the Secretary-Gen- In November, the Council expects to be and Ross briefed the Council on develop- eral on 10 May that it had a number of res- briefed in consultations by the Secretary- ments and on the Secretary-General’s latest ervations regarding the current negotiat- General’s Personal Envoy for Western Sahara, report (S/2012/197). As requested by the ing process, indicating a week later that it Christopher Ross, after his visit to key North Council in resolution 1979, the report took had lost confidence in Ross, describing his African and European capitals, scheduled into account challenges to the MINURSO work as “unbalanced and biased.” Following for 27 October to 15 November. The Spe- mandate and acknowledged that the mission this announcement, the Secretary-General cial Representative of the Secretary-General had failed to fulfil its key purpose: “to orga- asserted that he had complete confidence and head of the UN Mission for the Ref- nize and supervise a referendum on Western in Ross. (Ross was expected to visit Western erendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), Sahara self-determination.” (This final ver- Sahara in May, as agreed during the ninth Wolfgang Weisbrod-Weber may also brief on sion of the report contained no fewer than round of informal negotiations in March MINURSO. No outcome is expected from seven edited paragraphs, and it replaced between Morocco and the Polisario Front. the briefing. three previously released advance versions of The next rounds of informal talks, provision- MINURSO’s mandate expires on 30 April the report.) ally scheduled to take place in June and July, 2013. On 24 April, the Council extended MIN- were postponed for an indefinite period.) On URSO’s mandate for another year through 25 August during a phone conversation with Key Recent Developments resolution 2044. As is customary, the draft King Mohammed VI, Secretary-General Ban On 12 April, the Council held a meeting with resolution had been discussed by the Group Ki-moon stated that the UN did not intend MINURSO troop-contributing countries. of Friends of Western Sahara (France, Russia, to modify the terms of its mediation and reaf- On 17 April, Council members received a US, UK and Spain) before being distributed firmed his confidence in Ross. briefing in consultations on MINURSO. The to all Council members. On 15 June, the Secretary-General

UN DOCUMENTS ON WESTERN SAHARA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2044 (24 April 2012) renewed MINURSO’s mandate until 30 April 2013. S/RES/690 (29 April 1991) established MINURSO. Latest Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/197 (5 April 2012). Meeting Record S/PV.6750 (12 April 2012) was the closed meeting with the troop- and police-contributing countries participating in MINURSO. Other S/2012/442 (13 June 2012) was the President of the Council’s let- ter to the Secretary-General acknowledging the receipt of his earlier letter to the Council. S/2012/441 (12 April 2012) was the Secretary-General’s letter to the President of the Council informing the Council of his intention to appoint Wolfgang Weisbrod-Weber (Germany) as his Special Representative for Western Sahara and head of MINURSO. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of MINURSO Wolfgang Weisbrod-Weber (Germany). Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy Christopher Ross (United States). MINURSO Force Commander Maj. Gen. Abdul Hafiz (Bangladesh). Size and Composition of MINURSO as of 30 September 2012 Authorised: 237 troops, 6 police o"cers. Current: 233 total uniformed personnel (26 troops, 6 police o"cers, and 201 military observers), 94 international civilian personnel, 164 local civilian sta! and 15 UN volunteers. Cost 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2013: $60.8 million (A/C.5/66/17).

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Western Sahara (con't)

appointed Weisbrod-Weber (Germany) as not granted access to the territories occupied by self-determination; his Special Representative and head of MIN- Morocco. t
highlight the need to obtain the approval URSO to succeeded Abdel-Aziz (Egypt), of the population for any agreement; who completed his assignment on 30 April. Key Issues t
introduce a human rights component to Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeep- A key issue for the Council to consider is the MINURSO’s mandate (in line with the ing Operations Hervé Ladsous visited the city nature of its role to encourage progress in the current practice of most UN peacekeep- of Laâyoune and the MINURSO team sites implementation of MINURSO’s mandate, in ing missions); and of Oum Dreyga and Mijek in Western Sahara, place since 1991, and to alleviate the situa- t
request regular briefings, including on Tindouf and Rabouni in Algeria, and Rabat, tion of the Sahrawi population. the human rights aspects of the situation, Morocco from 10-12 October. He met with A related issue is its possible role in easing as well as the impact on the Sahel of the MINURSO o"cials, Moroccan authorities, the five-year deadlock in the informal nego- recent regime changes in the region. and o"cials from the Polisario Front. MIN- tiations between Morocco and the Polisario URSO’s activities and mandate were dis- Front. This impasse has been caused mainly Council and Wider Dynamics cussed, including the cooperation between by the refusal of both parties to accept the As a party to the conflict, and a member of Morocco and MINURSO. proposal of the other as the sole basis for the Council, Morocco is regarded as having Media reports in October indicated that negotiations. (The current negotiating pro- considerable impact on the overall dynamic lightly armed Sahrawis were seen in north- cess has gone on since April 2007, when both of this issue. ern Mali, in particular in the towns of Tim- Morocco and the Polisario Front presented Several Council members are not expect- buktu and Gao controlled by radical Islamist their respective proposals to the Secretary- ing any significant developments on this issue groups and Tuareg rebels. General.) A connected issue is the impact and feel that the Council is incapable of act- of Morocco’s recent criticism of Ross’s ing in a neutral way regarding this situation. Human Rights-Related Developments approach to the negotiations. This view appears to have been reinforced Juan E. Méndez, the Special Rapporteur on tor- An emerging key issue for the Council is by the existence of the various versions of ture for the Human Rights Council (HRC), vis- to ensure that the Islamist radical elements the Secretary-General’s report on Western ited Laâyoune, Western Sahara, on 17 and 18 operating in the Maghreb-Sahel do not infil- Sahara (they were released inadvertently and September. During a press conference follow- ing the presentation of his report to the Third trate and manipulate the Sahrawi refugee revealed changes that indicated a reluctance Committee of the General Assembly on 23 camps. to delve into some of the more di"cult issues October, Méndez said that there was evidence An ongoing issue for the Council is to facing MINURSO). of excessive use of force and a tendency to use ensure that all parties fully commit to, and South Africa is in favour of a human torture in interrogation when national security is observe, the human rights of all individuals rights monitoring mechanism as part of involved, both in Morocco and Western Sahara. On 19 September, the HRC adopted the out- caught in the conflict. MINURSO, but there has been opposition come of the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) on from others. Moreover, some Council mem- Morocco. Of the five recommendations specific Options bers also feel that it is not necessary for the to Western Sahara, Morocco said it was already One option for the Council is to simply Secretary-General to brief on the “challenges implementing three related to measures to pro- receive the briefing and take no action. to MINURSO’s operations and steps taken tect human rights defenders and to ensure the adequate protection of human rights. It did not Another option, to highlight its concern to address them” twice a year, but others support one calling for procedures governing with the lack of movement on the negotia- believe that it is necessary for the Council to registration of organisations advocating for the tions, is to adopt a presidential or press state- be kept abreast of developments more regu- Sahrawi right to self-determination to conform ment supporting all or some of the following larly. (Resolutions 1979 and 2044 requested with international standards, and it rejected approaches recommended in the Secretary- the Secretary-General to “examine the exist- another calling for the establishment of a perma- General’s report: ing challenges to MINURSO’s operations, nent human rights component in MINURSO as beyond the HRC mandate. t
emphasise the inclusion of a wide reflecting the situation on the ground.”) A delegation of the African Commission for cross-section of the population of West- The US is the lead country on Western Human and People’s Rights visited the refugee ern Sahara in the discussion of issues Sahara. camps in Tindouf from 24-28 September, but was related to final status and the exercise of

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Libya

Expected Council Action 20 October when 26 people were killed and al-Senussi. In order for Libya to abide by the In November, the Council is due to receive more than 200 wounded. The following day rules of the ICC and the will of the Coun- the Secretary-General’s report on the UN some 200 people stormed the grounds of the cil, it must convince the Pre-Trial Chamber Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and is Parliament in Tripoli demanding an end to that trials held in Libya will be fair. Lawyers expected to be briefed by Je!rey Feltman, the violence. On 24 October pro-government for Libya told the Pre-Trial Chamber that a head of the Department of Political A!airs, forces reportedly captured the town, but on team of 12 investigators is collecting evidence on the situation in Libya. As chair of the 30 October Defense Minister Osama al-Jueili against Qaddafi, and said he may be tried 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee, Ambas- said that the army had no control over Bani jointly with al-Senussi. ICC prosecutors said sador José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Portugal) Walid and that armed groups were preventing that the court needed more tangible proof is expected to brief the Council on the work residents from returning to the town. that Libya could hold a fair trial, and that of the Committee in consultations. On 22 October, Russia circulated a draft it would be appropriate to give Libya addi- The semi-annual International Crimi- press statement on the escalation of violence tional time. The ICC is expected to rule on nal Court (ICC) briefing is also scheduled around Bani Walid and the civilian casualties. the issue within the next few months. for November, with Chief Prosecutor Fatou Council members met the next day to receive The proliferation of Libyan arms in the Bensouda expected to update the Council on a briefing on the situation from Assistant region remains a cause for concern. On 24 recent developments concerning Libya. Secretary-General for Political A!airs Taye- October, Egypt intercepted two trucks smug- UNSMIL’s mandate expires on 16 March Brook Zerihoun. No statement was adopted gling weapons in from Libya. In mid–Octo- 2013. following the meeting. ber media reports indicated that most of the There continue to be notable electoral and shoulder-fired missiles in Syrian rebel arse- Key Recent Developments political developments in Libya. On 14 Octo- nals are from Libya, having been smuggled Recent security-related incidents have high- ber the General National Congress (GNC) into the country through Turkey without o"- lighted the myriad of challenges Libya is facing. elected Ali Zidan—who had lost to el-Mega- cial blessing. On 14 September, a shipment On 11 September the US consulate in rif in a congressional vote for the presidency of Libyan weapons arrived in Turkey to be Benghazi was attacked and four American on 9 August—as the interim Prime Minis- delivered to armed groups in Syria. It was diplomats were killed, including Ambassa- ter. Zidan, a human rights lawyer, replaced reported that the 400-ton cargo included sur- dor Christopher Stevens. On 16 September, Mustafa Abushagur, who spent less than a face-to-air anti-aircraft missiles and rocket- Libyan President Mohammed el-Megarif month in o"ce after failing to gain the con- propelled grenades. said that foreigners a"liated with Al-Qaida gressional approval for his cabinet. Zidan The 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee who had infiltrated Libya over the preceding presented his 30-member cabinet to the issued an implementation assistance notice months had planned the attack, using Liby- GNC to be approved in a 30 October vote. on 15 October, containing information aimed ans, including from the Islamist militia Ansar Dozens of civilians and formers rebels who at assisting member states in implementing al-Sharia, to carry it out. were unhappy with the cabinet composition the arms embargo on Libya. It focused on Feltman addressed the Council the next stormed the assembly during the vote, forc- the reporting of detections of violations to day, with Deputy Permanent Representative ing congress to postpone the voting process. the Committee. Ibrahim Dabbashi (Libya) also addressing At press time it was unclear whether the cabi- On 12 September Secretary-General Ban the Council and stating that Libya strongly net would be approved.Meanwhile, the GNC Ki-moon announced the appointment of condemned the attack “carried out by has yet to decide on the composition of the Tarek Mitri (Lebanon) to succeed Ian Mar- extremists”. In a press statement (SC/10761), Constituent Assembly that will draft the new tin (UK) as the Special Representative and the Council condemned the attack in the Libyan constitution. head of UNSMIL as of 18 October. strongest terms. Libya continues to refuse to extradite Saif On 17 October, clashes began between al-Islam Qaddafi and Abdullah al-Senussi Key Issues pro-government militias and fighters in Bani two key members of the former regime, to An overarching issue for the Council con- Walid, a former stronghold of the late Muam- face charges of war crimes and crimes against tinues to be determining what UNSMIL’s mar Qaddafi. Government forces and mili- humanity at the International Criminal Court long-term role in Libya should be, particu- tias besieged the town following the death (ICC) in The Hague. It remains adamant that larly once a government has been formed. of Omran Shaban, a former rebel credited both indictees must be tried in Libya, where Halting the proliferation of Libyan arms in with having captured Qaddafi on 20 Octo- they would face the death penalty. the Sahel and beyond, and particularly Syria, ber 2011. The Warfalla tribe controlling On 9-10 October, Libya appeared at a is an ongoing issue for Council members. Bani Walid has been accused of kidnapping hearing in The Hague on its challenge to the Preventing large-scale reprisals and killings and torturing Shaban. Violence peaked on jurisdiction of the ICC over Qaddafi and in a post-conflict Libya, as well as concerns

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2040 (12 March 2012) renewed UNSMIL’s mandate. Security Council Press Statements SC/10761 (12 September 2012) condemned in the strongest terms the attacks on the US consulate in Benghazi. SC/10760 (12 September 2012) followed Je!rey Feltman’s briefing on the attack on the US consulate in Benghazi. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6849 and Res. 1 (17 October 2012) was the open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law, with a focus on the ICC. S/PV.6807 (18 July 2012) was the latest briefing by Ian Martin. S/PV.6772 (16 May 2012) was the latest briefing by ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo and the open debate on Libya. Security Council Letters S/2012/699 (10 September 2012) was a letter from the Secretary-General informing the Council of the appointment of Tarek Mitri (Lebanon) as the new Special Representative and head of UNSMIL. S/2012/471 (20 June 2012) was a letter from the Permanent Representative of Libya transmitting the Memorandum of Arrest of the ICC delegation. Other SC/10791 (15 October 2012) was a press release on the implementation assistance notice established by the Libya Sanctions Committee on resolution 1970.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Libya (con't) about human rights violations are important Libya-related events in November with a begin to explore the future role of the mission. issues for the Council. presidential or press statement to commu- Generally, the P3 and other Council mem- The Council’s role in the implementation nicate certain political messages to Libya, bers that supported resolution 1973 have of resolution 1970 with regard to its referral of including encouraging it to complete the pro- been reluctant to highlight the challenges in the situation in Libya to the ICC and any refer- cess of government formation expeditiously post-Qaddafi Libya, as demonstrated by their ral-related trials is another important issue. to allow the drafting of the constitution to reluctance to endorse the 22 October Rus- begin. sian draft press statement on Bani Walid. Underlying Problems It is also possible that Council members Some Council members remain alarmed After decades of divide-and-rule tactics uti- will opt to take a wait-and-see approach and by the decision to commence the trials of lised by the previous regime, Libyan society simply receive the briefings without adopting Qaddafi and al-Senussi in Libya. To them, it remains highly fragmented. Intercommunal any formal outcomes. is a violation of resolution 1970 and more grievances abound, and the security situation general obligations under international law. will remain precarious until central authori- Council Dynamics On the occasion of the 17 October open ties have the military and political capacity While sharing a common concern for the sit- debate on the ICC, several Council mem- needed to extend sovereignty and state con- uation in Libya, most Council members feel bers urged Libya to cooperate with the ICC trol throughout the entire Libyan territory. that at this time there is little that the Coun- on this matter. cil can do until a government has been fully The UK is the lead country on Libya. Options formed in Libya. Once that transpires, the One option is to follow up the series of Council can revisit UNSMIL’s mandate and

Lebanon

Expected Council Action urged the extension of government control issued a press statement strongly condemn- In November the Council is expected to con- over all Lebanese territory. However, due to ing the attack and appealing to the Lebanese sider the report of the Secretary-General on the impact of Hurricane Sandy those consul- people to “preserve national unity in face of resolution 1701 (which called for a cessation tations were postponed until November. The such attempts to undermine the country’s of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in report observed a lack of “tangible progress” stability.” Following al-Hassan’s funeral on 2006), due mid-month. The Special Coordi- and pointed to the crisis in Syria as a contrib- 21 October, protestors in Beirut attempted nator for Lebanon, Derek Plumbly, and the uting factor to that lack of progress. to storm the o"ces of Prime Minister Najib Under Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Between the drafting of the 1559 report Mikati, while violent clashes in Tripoli killed Operations, Hervé Ladsous, are expected to and the briefing, events in Lebanon con- at least five people. On 22 October, President brief Council members in consultations. tinued to demonstrate the negative impact Michel Sleiman, Plumby and the ambassa- No formal outcome is expected. The man- of the Syrian crisis. On 19 October a car dors of the five permanent members of the date of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon bomb detonated in the Ashrafiyah district Security Council met in Beirut to underline (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August 2013. of Beirut, killing at least 8 people, includ- their solidarity with Lebanon and their deter- ing its intended target, Brig. Gen. Wissam mination to bring the perpetrators of the 19 Key Recent Developments al-Hassan, the intelligence chief of the Inter- October attack to justice. At press time, Council members were sched- nal Security Forces. Al-Hassan, an ally of Addressing the General Assembly in Sep- uled to meet in consultations on 31 Octo- the family of assassinated former Prime tember, Mikati had rea"rmed Lebanon’s ber to hear a briefing from Special Envoy of Minister Rafiq Hariri, had played an inte- policy of disassociation from the crisis in the Secretary-General Terje Rød-Larsen on gral role in the arrest of a former Informa- Syria, though additional incidents in Octo- the Secretary-General’s report on the imple- tion Minister, Michel Samaha, who had ber underscored the fragility of that policy. mentation of resolution 1559 (S/2012/773), been accused of plotting bombings in Leba- On 1 October, Lebanese o"cials reported which in 2004 called for the disarmament of non targeting supporters of the rebel Free that a Hezbollah commander, Ali Hussein all Lebanese and non-Lebanese militias and Syrian Army (FSA). The Security Council Nassif, had been killed in Syria by FSA forces.

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2064 (30 August 2012) extended the mandate of UNIFIL for 12 months. S/RES/1757 (30 May 2007) established the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called for a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged the disarmament of all militias and extension of the Lebanese government’s control over all Lebanese territory. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2008/8 (15 April 2008) concerned the implementation of resolution 1701. Security Council Press Statement SC/10799 (19 October 2012) condemned the 19 October terrorist attack in Beirut. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2012/773 (17 October 2012) was the most recent 1559 report. S/2012/502 (28 June 2012) was the most recent 1701 report. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek Plumbly (UK). Special Envoy for the Implementation of Resolution 1559 Terje Rød-Larsen (Norway). UNHCR Statistics for Syrian Refugees in Lebanon as of 24 October 2012 73,393 Syrian refugees registered by the UN in Lebanon with an additional 29,426 being assisted pending registration, for a total of 101,819 Syrian refugees in Lebanon. UNIFIL Force Commander Maj. Gen. Paolo Serra (Italy). Size and Composition of UNIFIL as of 30 September 2012 Authorised: 15,000 troops. Current: 11,528 military personnel. Troop Contributors: Armenia, Austria, Bangladesh, Belarus, Belgium, Brazil, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Croatia, Cyprus, Denmark, El Salvador, Finland, France, FYR of Macedonia, Germany, Ghana, Greece, Guatemala, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Kenya, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Nepal, Nigeria, Portugal, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Turkey. Duration: March 1978 to present; mandate expires 31 August 2013. Cost: 1 July 2012–30 June 2013: $546.9 Million (A/C.5/66/17).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Lebanon (con't)

According to Hezbollah sources, Nassif was of resolution 1701, the acceleration of the instability in Lebanon increases, the likeli- killed “while performing his jihadi duties,” demarcation of the Blue Line between Israel hood that Israel and Lebanon will shift from while anti-Assad activists and rebels have and Lebanon and the issue of the Israeli their current cessation of hostilities towards taken the incident as evidence that Hezbol- occupation of the northern part of Ghajar. a proper ceasefire decreases. Related to this is lah is fighting in Syria and actively coordi- Serra described the meeting as “constructive” the fact that progress on a ceasefire is directly nating with the embattled regime of Presi- and reported that both parties had reiterated linked to progress on the Israel-Syria peace dent Bashar al-Assad. Following claims by their commitment to resolution 1701. track, which has been indefinitely postponed. the FSA that it had detained 13 Hezbollah On 1 October, the Appeals Chamber of Other issues related to resolution 1701 members near Homs, Hezbollah Secretary- the Special Tribunal for Lebanon held a pub- include the Israeli occupation of Ghajar, the General Hassan Nasrallah denied the organ- lic hearing at which defence attorneys for the fact that Hezbollah maintains a significant isation was directly involved in the Syrian four Hezbollah members indicted by the Tri- military capacity beyond the control of the crisis during a televised speech on 11 Octo- bunal argued that it lacked jurisdiction over LAF and regular Israeli over-flights into Leb- ber. But according to news reports, clashes the assassination of former Prime Minister anese airspace. between pro-Hezbollah forces and Syrian Hariri and should be dissolved. On 24 Octo- rebels in Syria in regions bordering Lebanon ber the Appeals Chamber unanimously dis- Options had become a daily occurrence, while cross- missed the challenges raised by the defence. The most likely option for the Council is to border shelling by Syria into Lebanon had The trials in absentia of those charged are take no action on the 1701 report. The last also continued. In response to a spate of kid- preliminarily set to begin on 25 March 2013. Council pronouncement on a 1701 report nappings and general lawlessness, the Leba- On 9 October, Boutros Harb—the attorney was a 15 April 2008 presidential statement. nese Armed Forces (LAF) deployed troops to for the family of Gebran Tueni, a member the Beka’a region in eastern Lebanon on 17 of parliament who was assassinated on 12 Council Dynamics October as part of a new security plan. December 2005—demanded that the case Council members’ positions regarding Leb- In the south, an unmanned aerial vehicle be referred to the Tribunal, following news anon remain unchanged in recent months: launched by Hezbollah was shot down by reports that recently unearthed documents they are in consensus that UNIFIL is an Israel after it penetrated Israeli airspace on could link Syria and Hezbollah to the crime. important stabilising factor between Israel 6 October. Speaking to the press later that In response, the Tribunal spokesman indi- and Lebanon. week, Sleiman indicated that the incident cated that though the assassination fell within Council members are also in agreement underscored the urgent need for a national the Tribunal’s temporal jurisdiction, its pros- on the implementation of UNIFIL’s stra- defence strategy incorporating Hezbollah’s ecutor would still need to present the pre- tegic review, which sought to transfer some arms. Mikati voiced his support for the presi- trial judge su"cient evidence linking the two security control from UNIFIL to the LAF dent’s position on 15 October, adding that he assassinations. (The Tribunal is empowered while better matching UNIFIL’s mandate supported full implementation of resolution to investigate and try assassinations related to to its resources. The redeployment of LAF 1701. The National Dialogue, the ongoing that of Hariri that occurred between 1 Octo- from the south of Lebanon to the north has talks since 2006 between Lebanon’s politi- ber 2004 and 12 December 2005.) delayed this process, but it has not negatively cal leaders, is scheduled to meet on the sub- impacted the security situation in UNIFIL’s ject of Hezbollah’s arsenal on 12 November, Key Issues area of operations. though press reports suggest the session may A key issue impacting the implementation of Regarding the Tribunal, Council members be postponed. resolution 1701 continues to be the spill over have generally underscored the importance On 10 October, UNIFIL Force Com- of the Syrian crisis into Lebanon. As demon- of its independence and foresee no Council mander Maj. Gen. Paolo Serra chaired a tri- strated by recent events in Lebanon, includ- role in relation to its activities. partite meeting with senior o"cers represent- ing the assassination of al-Hassan, Mikati’s France is the lead country on Lebanon in ing the LAF and the Israeli Defence Forces. policy of disassociation from the Syrian cri- the Council. The parties discussed the implementation sis is under pressure. As the potential for

Iraq

Expected Council Action Martin Kobler. Key Recent Developments In November the Council expects to receive The mandate of UNAMI expires on 28 Kobler last briefed the Council on 19 July, the Secretary-General’s report on the UN July 2013. The mandate of the High-Level highlighting the political stalemate that has Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and Coordinator for Iraq-Kuwait Missing Per- hampered progress on disputed internal a briefing on its contents and developments sons and Property expires on 31 December. boundaries, the unfinished constitutional in the country from the head of UNAMI, process, the adoption of essential legislation

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Iraq (con't) and preparations for provincial elections. Iraq killed more than 100 people. The attacks Compensation Commission (established to Ambassador Hamid Al-Bayati (Iraq) also primarily targeted military and law-enforce- process claims and pay compensation related addressed the Council, agreeing with Kobler ment sites, including the Dujail army outpost to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait) for the bien- that UNAMI “is needed now more than north of Baghdad and a building in Kirkuk at nium ending 31 December 2011. Both audits ever in Iraq.” On 25 July, the Council unani- which people were applying for security jobs found that the financial statements of the var- mously adopted resolution 2061, renewing with the state-run oil company. Additionally, ious accounts were fair and accurate. UNAMI for a further year. at the French consulate in Nasiriyah, a car In recent weeks the political deadlock bomb exploded, killing two Iraqi guards. On Human Rights-Related Developments has not abated. Following a trial in absentia, 10 September, the Islamic State of Iraq, an On 30 August, Christof Heyns, the Special Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi was Al-Qaida a"liate, claimed responsibility for Rapporteur for the Human Rights Council (HRC) convicted on 9 September on two counts of the attacks. On 11 September, Council mem- on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary execu- tions, condemned ongoing executions in Iraq and murder. Al-Hashemi, who had been accused bers issued a press statement (SC/10757) expressed concern about the lack of respect for of overseeing paramilitary death squads condemning the attacks. transparency, due process and fair trial guaran- responsible for more than 150 attacks in Sporadic violence continued in the follow- tees when imposing the death penalty. Iraq, was sentenced to death by hanging. ing weeks. At least 32 people were killed in a At the opening of the 21st session of the HRC, From Turkey, where he has been living, al- wave of bombings that struck Shi’ite neigh- High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay deplored that 26 more people had been executed Hashemi rejected the “politically motivated bourhoods on 30 September, a string of car- recently in Iraq, bringing the number of people verdict” as “the final phase of the theatri- bombs and a shooting killed eight people in executed in 2012 to nearly 100. cal campaign” mounted by Prime Minister northern Iraq on 15 October and four Paki- Nouri al-Maliki. President Jalal Talabani stani Shi’ite pilgrims were killed in an attack also opposed the verdict, expressing concern on 19 October. On 20 October, at least 12 Key Issues that it could “complicate e!orts to achieve people were killed in shootings and bombings A key issue for the Council is how UNAMI national reconciliation.” targeting government o"cials and security can best contribute to the stability of Iraq and On 21 October, a delegation from the forces in Baghdad and Mosul. On 24 Octo- help facilitate an end to the current political Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), ber, at least 11 more people were killed in deadlock. headed by former KRG Prime Minister Bar- attacks in Baghdad and to the north. On 27 Another key issue is the continuing sec- ham Salih, met with representatives from October, Kobler condemned “in the stron- tarian violence, especially as it relates to the the Iraqi National Alliance, a Shi’ite political gest terms” a series of attacks which killed conviction of al-Hashemi. bloc associated with al-Maliki, and with the at least 20 people, mainly pilgrims observing Prime Minister on 22 October. That same the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha. Underlying Problems day, KRG Vice President Emad Ahmed met Concerning Camp Ashraf, as of 3 Octo- Given sectarian divisions, di!erent political separately with Al-Maliki and Talabani, who ber, more than 3,000 Iranian exiles belong- blocs remain split over power-sharing. As a in a statement expressed “optimism over the ing to the Mujahedin-e Khalq Iran (the result, key ministerial posts have been vacant success of the meetings…to achieve the set- MEK), an organisation opposed to the for months. tling of the political disputes.” government in Tehran, had been peacefully At the end of September, eight of the nine relocated to Camp Hurriye near Baghdad Options members of the Board of Commissioners International Airport. On 21 September, the The most likely option for the Council is to of the Independent High Electoral Com- US State Department removed the MEK receive the report and hear Kobler’s briefing mission were formally appointed. In a state- from its list of designated terror organisa- without making any further pronouncements ment on 25 September, Kobler welcomed tions, citing the “absence of any confirmed on Iraq. However, given that the report is the appointments, saying they paved the way attacks by the MEK for more than a decade.” expected to focus on the continuing political for provincial elections in 2013. However, Approximately 100 members of the MEK deadlock in Iraq, the Council could issue a Kobler also expressed regret that no women are expected to remain at Camp Ashraf for statement urging Iraq’s political leaders to had been appointed. The appointment of the the time being, with Iraqi permission, to deal resolve their di!erences through political ninth commissioner, on 27 September, drew with logistical issues related to MEK prop- dialogue. complaints from the Christian community, erty remaining in the camp. which criticised the fact that all nine commis- In August, the Security Council received Council Dynamics sioners were Muslim. Provincial elections are the 2011 audit of the escrow account estab- Council members continue to consider Iraq currently scheduled for April 2013, followed lished by resolution 1958 to indemnify a routine issue, and there is a general consen- by general elections in 2014. the UN with regards to the Iraq Oil-For- sus that UNAMI is making a contribution to On 9 September, a wave of attacks across Food program and the audit of the UN stability in Iraq.

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAQ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2061 (25 July 2012) renewed UNAMI for a period of 12 months. S/RES/1958 (15 December 2010) terminated the Oil-for- Food programme and established an escrow account to provide indemnification to the UN with regard to the programme for a period of six years. Secretary General’s Report S/2012/535 (11 July 2012) was a report of the Secretary-General on UNAMI. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.6811 (19 July 2012) was a briefing by UNAMI head Martin Kobler on the Secretary- General’s report. Security Council Press Statement SC/10757 (11 September 2012) condemned the wave of terrorist attacks across Iraq on 8 and 9 September. Other S/2012/604 (3 August 2012) was the report of the Board of Auditors on the audit of the UN escrow (Iraq) accounts established under resolution 1958 and previous resolutions. S/2012/605 (3 August 2012) was the report of the Board of Auditors on the financial statements of the UN Compensation Commission for the biennium ending 31 December 2011.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Iraq (con't)

The expiration of the mandate of the have suggested incorporating that post into The US is the lead country on Iraq issues High-Level Coordinator for Iraq-Kuwait its mandate. Even so, most Council mem- in general, and the UK is the lead on Iraq- Missing Persons and Property in Decem- bers appear to be interested in maintaining Kuwait issues. ber may factor into some Council members’ the position as is, so as not to diminish the considerations regarding UNAMI, as some visibility of Iraq-Kuwait issues.

Yemen

Expected Council Action of the Popular Resistance Committees (tribal Article 41 of the UN Charter, if such actions In November, the Council is scheduled to forces backing the army) and wounded eight continued. receive a briefing on the situation in Yemen others in an attack on a checkpoint in the A Council visit to Yemen, initially sched- from the Secretary-General’s Special Adviser south. On 18 October, a drone strike near uled for October, may now take place in early and UN Envoy Jamal Benomar. the southern city of Jaar killed at least seven 2013. Several Council members are inter- No Council action is expected at this AQAP suspects, including Nader al-Shadadi ested in a public demonstration of the Coun- point. according to Yemeni sources. cil’s support for the transition process. A donor conference on Yemen was held in Key Recent Developments Riyadh on 4 September. On 27 September, a Human Rights-Related Developments Benomar last briefed the Council in consul- high-level “Friends of Yemen” meeting took The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights tations on 18 September (under the terms of place on the margins of the General Assem- released a report on 5 September on the situa- resolution 2014, the Council receives a brief- bly (Saudi Arabia, the UK and Yemen jointly tion of human rights in Yemen. The report takes note of the positive political and human rights ing on Yemen every 60 days; most of these chair the Friends of Yemen, which includes developments but raises concern that inves- briefings have been in consultations). Focus- key Persian Gulf countries, the G8 and tigations into past violations remain selective ing on the ongoing challenges to the transi- intergovernmental organisations). Pledges of and lack credibility and deplores the adoption tion process and other political, humanitarian nearly $1.5 billion were made at the meeting, of an amnesty law granting immunity to former and security issues, Benomar also updated which focused on financial support for the President Ali Abdullah Saleh and other o"cials. The report recommends the launch of a trans- the Council on the forthcoming National transition process. The government of Yemen parent and independent national investigation, Dialogue Conference as well as security briefed on the National Dialogue Conference the release of remaining individuals detained by reforms. scheduled for 15 November for a period of government security forces without due process Since the last briefing, a few incidents six months. The Conference is part of the and by armed opposition groups, and the imme- have a!ected the security situation, which Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative diate adoption of measures to end the use and recruitment of children. continues to be fragile. On 10 September, and intended to serve as an inclusive forum On 27 September, the Human Rights Council Ye m e n o "cials said that the second-in-com- for discussions between di!erent actors in (HRC) adopted a resolution on Yemen in which it mand of Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula Yemen and feed into constitutional reforms. called on all parties to release persons detained (AQAP) and former Guantanamo detainee, At press time, however, media reports sug- arbitrarily and to end any practice of unlawful Said al-Shihri, was killed in southern Yemen, gest the Conference has been postponed. The detention of persons. It also called on the gov- ernment of Yemen and armed opposition groups though very few details of the operation and next meeting of the Friends is scheduled for to take immediate measures to end the use and those involved were released. The following March 2013. recruitment of children and requested the High day, Defence Minister Muhammad Nasir The day after the 27 September Friends Commissioner to provide technical assistance Ahmad survived an assassination attempt in meeting, Council members issued a press to the government to enable Yemen to fulfil its Sana’a that killed at least 12 people when statement (SC/10778) in support of a fully human rights obligations and to report to the HRC at its 24th session. a bomb detonated as his motorcade passed. inclusive National Dialogue. They expressed On 13 September, Council members issued concern about e!orts to undermine the a press statement (SC/10762) condemning National Unity Government as it endeav- Key Issues the terrorist attack in Sana’a. ours to implement the political transition The key challenge for the Council is to deter- On 16 October, AQAP militants, one of agreement and reiterated their readiness to mine what role it can play in assisting Yemen them a suicide bomber, killed six members consider further measures, including under to foster a peaceful political transition in

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2051 (12 June 2012) focused on the second phase of the political transition and expressed the Council’s readiness to consider further measures, including under Article 41 of the Charter. S/RES/2014 (21 October 2011) endorsed the GCC initiative for a peaceful transition of power. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/8 (29 March 2012) noted Council members’ concern over the deterioration in the situation since the transfer of power to President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi on 25 February. Security Council Press Statements SC/10778 (28 September 2012) was following the Friends of Yemen meeting. SC/10762 (13 September 2012) condemned the 11 September terrorist attack in Sana’a. SC/10656 (21 May 2012) condemned the suicide attack that killed 96 soldiers in Sana’a on 21 May. SC/10571 (7 March 2012) condemned the terrorist attacks that occurred in Abyan province. Latest Meeting Records S/PV.6776 (29 May 2012). S/PV.6744 (29 March 2012). Letters S/2012/470 (21 June 2012) was from the President of the Council noting the receipt of the Secretary-General’s 18 June letter. S/2012/469 (18 June 2012) was from the Secretary-General to the President of the Council noting his intention to establish a small o"ce of the Special Adviser for an initial period of 12 months. Other Friends of Yemen Ministerial Meeting Co-Chairs Statement from 27 September 2012. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen and UN Envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar (Morocco).

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Yemen (con't) accordance with the GCC initiative and the spoilers, including former President Saleh, about the deteriorating security, human rights accompanying implementation mechanism. in order to give credence to its declared and humanitarian picture in Yemen. While In particular, the Council must determine readiness to consider further measures, they recognise that violence has declined how it can support the National Dialogue including under Article 41 of the Charter; slightly, they are aware that any given inci- Conference. t
visiting Yemen to send a strong signal dent could enflame the situation and lead to A related issue for the Council is deal- about its support for a peaceful and suc- an escalation of violence. ing with the continuously precarious security, cessful transition; and Council members, including those that human rights and humanitarian situation in t
requesting briefings regarding the human were not initially inclined to threaten actions Yemen, which could undermine the new gov- rights situation and the humanitarian cri- under Article 41 in resolution 2051, were not ernment and the prospects for the political sis from the relevant UN actors, as well as opposed to reiterating the threat in the recent transition process. international and regional organisations. press statement. At this point, however, they do not feel that follow-up action on this is Options Council Dynamics warranted unless Benomar or other credible Options for the Council include: Council members seem to be in agreement sources bring to light evidence showing new t
keeping abreast of the developments in that Yemen is a complicated situation, where or increased interference in the implementa- Yemen and receiving regular briefings the ongoing interference from Saleh and his tion of the GCC initiative. from Benomar and the Department of relatives to undermine the transition process The UK has the lead in the Council on Political A!airs; remains a key obstacle. Ye m e n . t
adopting a clear message directed at Most Council members appear concerned

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Expected Council Action One of the coalition partners, the Party of Directorate General for Enlargement, In November, the Council is due to hold a Democratic Action (SDA), voted against expressed disappointment that Bosnia and six-monthly debate on Bosnia and Herze- the proposed budget and was subsequently Herzegovina had failed to meet its first dead- govina (BiH). The High Representative for asked to withdraw its ministers from the line of 31 August for filing draft amendments Bosnia and Herzegovina, Valentin Inzko, is cabinet. A new coalition was formed in to the parliament but urged the country to expected to brief the Council on develop- June although legal and procedural battles make progress on the roadmap’s other tasks. ments and the Secretary-General’s latest continued. The Council of the EU on 15 October report—expected in early November. The EU hosted a high-level meeting in adopted its “conclusions on Bosnia and Her- The Council will most likely adopt a res- Brussels on 27 June with Bosnia and Her- zegovina”, reiterating its unequivocal sup- olution reauthorising the EU-led multina- zegovina’s leaders at which the EU provided port for the country’s “EU perspective.” It tional stabilisation force (EUFOR ALTHEA), a roadmap that it expected the country to welcomed the reconfiguration of Operation which expires on 16 November, for a further adhere to in order for Sarajevo to submit a Althea, completed by 1 September, which 12 months. credible membership application to the EU. focused on capacity-building and training An important component was amendments and reduced the number of forces to approx- Key Recent Developments to the constitution to allow ethnic minorities, imately 600. The statement expressed con- When the High Representative last briefed those who did not belong to one of the three cern over the country’s political situation but the Council on 15 May, he expressed cau- “constituent peoples” (Bosnian Croats, Mus- noted that its authorities had been capable in tious optimism about the recent political lims and Serbs), to run for high o"ce. (The dealing with threats to the “safe and secure progress that had been made in Bosnia and European Court of Human Rights ruled in environment”. Herzegovina. Indeed, Inzko said that 2012 2009 in Sejdić and Finci v. BiH that the coun- Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visited could be a “breakthrough year for the coun- try’s constitution violated the European Con- Bosnia and Herzegovina from 25-26 July try in its e!orts to progress towards full Euro- vention on Human Rights by denying others as part of a regional visit. After meetings in Atlantic integration.” Events since then have the right to be elected to the presidency and Sarajevo with the three members of the presi- largely been less encouraging. second chamber of parliament.) All parties dency, Ban became the first UN Secretary- On 31 May, the coalition governing Bos- agree that the discrimination must be elimi- General to visit Srebrenica, where he com- nia and Herzegovina—which had been in nated but disagree on how to preserve the memorated the 8,000 victims of the 1995 place since February after 16 months with- rights of the constituent peoples. massacre. out a government—broke down after the On 12 September, Stefano Sannino, On 7 October, Bosnians voted in local long-awaited 2012 budget was approved. Director of the European Commission’s elections across the country. The mayoral

UN DOCUMENTS ON BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2019 (16 November 2011) reauthorised EUFOR until 16 November 2012. S/RES/1575 (22 November 2004) established EUFOR. Latest Meeting Record S/PV.6771 (15 May 2012).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Bosnia and Herzegovina (con't)

election in Srebrenica drew particular atten- called for more measures to be taken at all levels roll-over of EUFOR’s mandate in Bosnia and tion; the Muslim candidate was ultimately to promote meaningful political participation of Herzegovina for a further 12 months. re-elected. national minorities. She also highlighted the par- In the resolution, the Council could ticular challenges faced by the largest national Following an earlier announcement, on 31 minority, the Roma. underline the importance of Bosnia and August the Deputy High Representative con- On 22-23 October the Human Rights Herzegovina’s political leaders refraining firmed that supervision of the Brčko district Committee—a UN treaty body that consid- from divisive rhetoric. It could additionally had come to an end and that his team would ers states’ compliance with the International emphasise Inzko’s comments rea"rming the no longer intervene in the district’s a!airs. Covenant on Civil and Political Rights—exam- sovereignty of the nation-state of Bosnia and ined the human rights record of Bosnia and (The Brčko district, which borders Croatia Herzegovina. The committee welcomed its Herzegovina. The Council could consider in the northeast of Bosnia and Herzegovina, renewed commitment to the prosecution of war language urging the country’s political lead- is unique. It is formally part of both enti- criminals but raised concerns over the lack of ers to compromise and cooperate construc- ties that make up the country: the Republika support provided to war-time victims of sexual tively, including on constitutional reform. Srpska, and the Federation of Bosnia and violence. The search for missing persons and Reference to the OHR’s ultimate down- support provided to their families, conditions in Herzegovina.) prison facilities and protection of national minori- sizing—and the importance of Bosnia and Completion of the Brčko Final Award ties were also discussed. Herzegovina’s leaders ultimately taking full was one of the five objectives that needed to The Special Rapporteur on Violence against responsibility for the country’s future once be met before the O"ce of the High Repre- Women, Rashida Manjoo, planned to visit Bosnia the necessary conditions have been met— sentative (OHR) is closed. (Additionally, two and Herzegovina from 29 October to 5 November. might also be an option. conditions need to be fulfilled to complete the so-called “5+2” agenda: signing of the Key Issues Council Dynamics Stabilisation and Association Agreement with The primary issue for the Council is ensur- Bosnia and Herzegovina is a low-profile issue the EU—which happened in 2008—and a ing that the security situation in Bosnia and for the Council. Yet for those on the Council positive assessment of the situation in the Herzegovina remains stable. who have interests in the country, particularly country by the international Peace Imple- Related to this is whether the OHR con- the European members, the US and Russia, mentation Council Steering Board.) tinues to have an important role to play or if di!erences exist as to how they see the future In September, Milorad Dodik, the Presi- it should soon be downsized with a view to role of the OHR. Russia has been vocal in dent of Republika Srpska (RS), repeated that closure. calling for the abolition of the OHR, arguing the entity itself was a state, saying that Bosnia The implementation of existing agree- that the country is secure and it is time for and Herzegovina was “an impossible coun- ments, including on defence and state prop- the fate of the Bosnians to be in their own try.” In a 27 July statement, the High Rep- erty, and addressing the constitutional issues hands. The UK and the US have emphasised resentative—who serves as the guarantor of surrounding the Sejdić and Finci case are cru- the need for completion of the “5+2” agenda the 1995 Dayton Agreement—reiterated that cial to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s progress and for the OHR to remain in place uphold- “there is only one state on the territory of Bos- and are important matters for the Council. ing the Dayton Agreement until that time. nia and Herzegovina, and that is Bosnia and Related to this are the ongoing challenges Russia in the past has been critical of the Herzegovina itself.” posed by the political gridlock in Sarajevo High Representative’s analysis of the situa- and continuing rhetoric challenging the long- tion in Bosnia and Herzegovina, asserting Human Rights-Related Developments term viability of the state. that it is “tainted by a biased criticism of Rita Izsák, the independent expert on minor- A broader but related issue is Bosnia the leadership of the Bosnian Serbs.” Other ity issues for the Human Rights Council, visited and Herzegovina’s progression towards full Council members have tended to generally Bosnia and Herzegovina from 17-25 September “Euro-Atlantic integration” (i.e. EU and welcome Inzko’s reports. to examine the human rights situation of di!er- ent minorities. She noted that damaging political, NATO membership). The UK will be the pen-holder for ethnic and religious divisions continue to exist. November’s resolution. Izsák expressed concern over the high degree of Options ethnic segregation in the education system and One option for the Council is to authorise a

Kosovo

Expected Council Action (1999) and will continue until otherwise report, due by 31 October. In November, the Council is scheduled to decided. No Council action is expected. hold a quarterly debate on the UN Interim The Special Representative and head of Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), UNMIK, Farid Zarif, is expected to brief Key Recent Developments which was established by resolution 1244 the Council on the latest Secretary-General’s On 19 October, the Prime Ministers of Serbia

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Kosovo (con't) and Kosovo, Ivica Dačić and Hashim Thaçi extending its mandate for a further two years. Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of indepen- respectively, held talks in Brussels, brokered (The EULEX civilian presence in Kosovo— dence but that it would fulfill obligations in by the EU. It was the first time that the two which numbers about 3,000 personnel and the agreements reached with Kosovo thus far, sides had met at the prime ministerial level includes international judges and prosecu- even though he considered those agreements since Kosovo declared independence on 17 tors—operates under the overall authority of “as meeting the wish list of the Albanian party February 2008. The discussions were also UNMIK.) and concessions made by our leadership at the first Belgrade-Pristina talks since Febru- In relation to the end of Kosovo’s super- that time, under heavy pressure.” ary, when developments related to Serbian vised independence, NATO Secretary-Gen- As Kosovo is not a UN member or elections and the formation of a new gov- eral Anders Fogh Rasmussen confirmed on observer state it did not speak in the general ernment in Belgrade delayed the dialogue. 10 September that NATO did not intend to debate, although its President, Atifete Jah- The meeting in Brussels, chaired by EU reduce troop numbers (about 6,000) in its jaga, did meet with the Secretary-General on High Representative for Foreign A!airs and Kosovo Force (KFOR). the margins of the General Assembly on 23 Security Policy Catherine Ashton, took place On 10 October, the European Commis- September. after both sides met with Ashton separately. sion released the key findings of its feasibil- Describing the talks as having taken place in ity study for a Stabilisation and Association Key Issues a “good and constructive atmosphere,” Ash- Agreement between the EU and Kosovo, A key issue for the Council is maintaining the ton said, “we agreed to continue the dialogue which would pave the way for Kosovo— stability of the security situation throughout for the normalisation of relations between which is a “candidate country”—to join the Kosovo. Tensions are most pronounced in the two sides and both committed to working EU. The Commission confirmed that Kosovo northern Kosovo, and a significant issue fac- together.” The talks are expected to resume was “largely ready” to open negotiations for ing the Council is the parallel security sector in November. such an agreement. Yet the report indicated structures in the predominantly Serb north, Three days after the meetings in Brussels, that Kosovo had to take numerous steps where the majority refuses to recognise Pris- several dozen activists took part in a rally beforehand, including in the rule of law, pro- tina’s authority. in Pristina organised by the opposition Self- tection of minorities (notably the Serbian Recurring issues—such as the freedom Determination Party (SDP), protesting the Orthodox Church) and trade. of movement of KFOR and EULEX per- talks with Serbia. Police fired tear gas and The equivalent findings concerning Ser- sonnel in northern Kosovo, attacks against arrested 60 people after protesters threw bia, which obtained the status of “candidate minorities (including Serbs) in Kosovo and stones at police and tried to blockade the country” on 1 March, noted that Belgrade’s declining numbers of minority returnees to O"ce of the Prime Minister. The protest- implementation of agreements reached with Kosovo—are also likely to feature. ers asserted that Kosovo should not “bargain Pristina had been “uneven.” It said Serbia’s However, the focal point for the Coun- with Serbia,” with the SDP leader report- new government needed to fulfill its com- cil is likely to be the resumption of the Bel- edly saying, “Serbia is an abnormal state and mitment to implement all agreements with grade-Pristina dialogue and the initial signs we don’t want to ‘normalise’ our relations.” Kosovo in order to “open up the next phase concerning the “normalisation” of relations. Thaçi dismissed the protesters as “isolated of Serbia’s EU integration.” Implementation of existing agreements voices.” In October, Dačić reiterated statements between Belgrade and Pristina, including on The previous month, on 10 September, advocating the partition of Kosovo as the border management, is also a pertinent issue. Kosovo celebrated the end of its “supervised “fastest, best and most just solution” to the independence” after the closure of the Inter- Kosovo impasse. Dačić emphasised that par- Options national Civilian O"ce in Pristina. The o"ce tition was his personal position and not that Generally, the Council chooses not to take had been created to oversee the implementa- of the Serbian government. In response to action at these regular UNMIK debates tion of the provisions of the 2007 Compre- similar remarks in September, Thaçi said and could refrain from doing so again in hensive Settlement Proposal (the “Ahtisaari that partition would never happen. Kosovo November. Plan”), which was endorsed by the Kosovo is against partition and has argued that the One option, however, would be to issue authorities but not Serbia. On 7 September, division of nation states along ethnic lines a press statement welcoming the high-level the Kosovo Assembly adopted 22 amend- runs counter to European values. talks between the two Prime Ministers if ments to its constitution allowing Kosovo to In his speech during the General Assem- a second round of talks occurs before the end its supervised independence. This was bly’s general debate on 25 September, Ser- debate. in keeping with the 2 July decision of the bian President Tomislav Nikolić a"rmed International Steering Group—comprising that his country was willing to “participate Council Dynamics 24 European countries and the US—to close constructively in the negotiating process” Intractable Council di!erences on the issue the o"ce. with Pristina. Serbia could not move forward of Kosovo have changed little in recent years. The Kosovo Assembly also voted on 7 without Kosovo and Kosovo could not move Due to deep divisions among permanent September to continue the partnership with forward without Serbia, he said. Nikolić reaf- members concerning the legitimacy of the the EU’s Rule of Law Mission (EULEX), firmed that Serbia would never recognise unilateral declaration of independence, the

UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO Security Council Resolution S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Yugoslav forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK. Latest Council Meeting Record S/PV.6822 (21 August 2012).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Kosovo (con't)

Council has found it di"cult to make pro- call for Kosovo to have substantial autonomy the resumed talks. Some members are likely nouncements on Kosovo. Resolution 1244— and “meaningful self-administration.”) Sev- to reinforce that it is in the interest of both adopted in 1999—remains the authoritative eral elected members—none of whom, apart parties to develop closer relations with the Council decision on the situation, and China from Colombia, Germany and Portugal, rec- EU. Other members may express the need for and Russia reiterate that all action must be ognise Kosovo—likewise accentuate the need more demonstrable progress in the investiga- consistent with the resolution. (The resolu- for UNMIK to implement, and act in accor- tion into the allegations of organ harvesting tion rea"rmed the territorial integrity of what dance with, resolution 1244. in Kosovo during 1999-2000. was then the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia— The focus for most members in November including Kosovo—but also rea"rmed the is likely to be forward-looking and centred on

DPRK (North Korea)

Expected Council Action wartime aggression. On 28 October, a group of DPRK defec- Ambassador José Filipe Moraes Cabral (Por- On 7 October, the US and the Republic tors went ahead with the launch of balloons tugal)—the chair of the 1718 Committee, of Korea (ROK) announced that they had filled with propaganda leaflets over the bor- which oversees the sanctions on the Demo- reached an agreement to extend the range der into their former homeland. A week ear- cratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)— of Seoul’s ballistic missiles. The ROK’s chief lier, ROK police had prevented the activists is scheduled to brief Council members in national security adviser, Chun Yung-woo, from launching the balloons after the DPRK November on the Committee’s recent work. announced that the goal of revising the pact had threatened military action against its These regular quarterly briefings are in was to deter armed provocation from the southern neighbour. closed consultations. DPRK and to be able to incapacitate its In developments at the UN, the Sanctions The Panel of Experts (PoE) that supports nuclear and missile capabilities at an early Committee met on 24 October to discuss the work of the Committee is due to provide stage. (The range of the missiles will be the 12 recommendations in the 14 June PoE a mid-term report of its work to the Commit- more than doubled from 300 kilometres to report (S/2012/422). The PoE’s first recom- tee by 12 November, pursuant to resolution 800 kilometres, which would mean the mis- mendation was for the Committee to con- 2050 (2012). After this report is discussed siles could reach any target in the DPRK, sider the financial and technical challenges with the Committee, the PoE is requested but would not be considered a threat to that inspections, seizure and disposal of pro- to submit the report to the Council by 12 China.) hibited materials originating from the DPRK December. Two days later, the DPRK’s KCNA news present to member states. The Committee No Council action is expected. agency reported an o"cial statement saying agreed to commence drafting an Implemen- that the US declaration that Washington did tation Assistance Notice (IAN)—a guidelines Key Recent Developments not have a hostile policy towards the DPRK paper—to assist member states with this On 29 August, mid-level o"cials from Japan was a lie. The statement also said that the issue and asked the PoE to provide it with a and the DPRK held a meeting at the Japa- DPRK had “strategic rocket forces” that background paper on the matter. nese embassy in Beijing. It was the first time could strike not only “the US imperialist The PoE report recommended that the in four years that the two countries—which aggression forces’ bases in the inviolable land Committee prepare—or issue—three other do not share diplomatic relations—had held of Korea but also Japan, Guam and the US IANs and that the Council take steps to talks. The outcome of the meeting was incon- mainland.” The US State Department said establish an inter-panel coordination mech- clusive but was aimed at shaping an agenda it considered the range of the DPRK’s mis- anism to address synergies between other for future high-level talks. A key issue for siles an intelligence issue and would not dis- PoEs. The Committee discussed this mat- Japan is to be allowed to retrieve the remains cuss the veracity of the DPRK’s claims. But it ter and the recommendation that the Com- of several thousand Japanese citizens who noted that Pyongyang was bound by Council mittee invite relevant UN organisations to died at the end of World War II in the north resolutions. A spokeswoman also said that engage with it to ensure that delivery of items, of Korea while it was still a Japanese colony. rather than “bragging about its missile capa- including computers, to the DPRK were con- As the two countries considered the pos- bility, they ought to be feeding their own sistent with Council resolutions on the pro- sibility of a next round of talks, Kim Young- people,” and that threats and provocations hibition of luxury goods. The necessary con- Nam—who serves as the DPRK’s ceremonial would undermine the DPRK’s e!orts to “get sensus was not reached in the Committee to head of state—was quoted on 12 October back into conversation with the international make progress on these issues at this stage. as saying that Japan should apologise for its community.” (The Committee comprises all 15 Council

UN DOCUMENTS ON DPRK Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2050 (12 June 2012) extended the mandate of the PoE until 12 July 2013. S/RES/1874 (12 June 2009) condemned the DPRK’s 25 May 2009 underground nuclear test, expanded the sanctions regime and established a PoE. S/RES/1718 (14 October 2006) expressed grave concern over the DPRK’s nuclear test, imposed sanctions and set up the 1718 Committee. Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/13 (16 April 2012) strongly condemned the DPRK’s launch of 13 April and directed the Committee to take steps to update and strengthen the sanctions regime. Presidential Note S/2012/422 (14 June 2012) contained the final report of the PoE, submitted pursuant to resolution 1985, which made 12 recommendations to improve the implementation of the sanctions regime.

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 DPRK (North Korea) (con't) members and makes decisions by “consensus situation by being seen to widen the sanctions tests a nuclear device (as in 2009 and 2006) of its members.”) without the Council’s explicit authorisation. and adopting presidential statements when it undertakes a prohibited launch (as in Human Rights-Related Developments Options April 2012 and in 2009). China tradition- Reporting to the General Assembly in September, Council members could receive the brief- ally emphasises that the Council’s responses the special rapporteur on the situation of human ing in consultations and take no action, as should be proportional and is mindful that rights in the DPRK, Marzuki Darusman, noted that is customary. the Committee and PoE not over-reach he had received reports and testimonies of a wide At the Committee level, members could their mandates. It prefers to take a cautious range of human rights violations. These included hold further discussions on the PoE’s rec- approach, considering dialogue with Pyong- extensive use of political prison camps, poor ommendations to prepare additional IANs. yang to be more e!ective than sanctions. prison conditions and prisoners being subjected to forced labour, torture and corporal punishment. The PoE called for notices on best practices Others, including European members on The authorities have continued to impose severe for members states to “promptly” submit the Council and the US, seek to be more restrictions on the rights to freedom of opin- reports as required by Council resolutions, proactive in ensuring the DPRK abides by ion, expression and movement, combined with on members states’ informing the Commit- its obligations under Council resolutions harsh punishments. Despite his various requests, tee when an attempted violation of the sanc- and that the existing sanctions regime is Marzuki had not been able to visit the DPRK. The report is therefore based on a mission to Thailand tions regime comes to their attention and on e!ectively implemented. They have gener- in June and on meetings held in Geneva, New clarifying language that some member states ally favoured a more prescriptive approach York and Jakarta. have deemed unclear concerning the freezing whereby the Committee would act on the On 18 October at a press conference in of designated persons’ or entities’ funds. PoE’s recommendations in providing clearer Geneva, UN High Commissioner for Human An additional option for the Committee is guidance to member states through IANs Rights Navi Pillay expressed her concern about the human rights situation in the DPRK, including to discuss when might be a good time for its and looking at the benefits of cooperation the use of political prison camps, public execu- chair to brief the wider membership on the across other PoEs. tions and severe food shortages. She also high- work of the Committee and PoE. On 1 January, the ROK will join the lighted the extreme di"culty of gaining access Council for a two-year term, possibly raising to the country. Council Dynamics the profile of DPRK issues within the Coun- Key Issues Ongoing divisions exist—particularly among cil. (On 19 December, presidential elections A key issue for the Council is for the DPRK the P5—on how aggressive the Council are scheduled in the ROK. President Lee to abide by its obligations under Council should be in implementing and tightening Myung-bak, who has taken what Pyong- resolutions and for tensions on the Korean the sanctions against the DPRK given its yang considers a “hostile” policy towards the Peninsula not to escalate. continued violation of existing Council res- DPRK during his five-year term, will leave The 1718 Committee is focused on ensur- olutions. The Council seems to have estab- o"ce in February 2013.) ing that the sanctions regime is duly imple- lished a record whereby it adopts resolutions mented, while not inflaming the political condemning Pyongyang’s action when it

Timor-Leste

Expected Council Action early November, despite Hurricane Sandy’s the front-runners. In the 16 April run-o!, In November, the Council is expected to interruptions. At press time, six elected mem- José Maria Vasconcelos—an independent hold its final debate on the UN Integrated bers—but no permanent members—were candidate and former military commander Mission in Timor-Leste (UNMIT). The mis- expected to go on the trip. better known by his nom de guerre Taur Matan sion’s mandate is set to end on 31 Decem- Ruak (“Two Sharp Eyes”)—defeated Fran- ber. Finn Reske-Nielsen (Denmark), who Key Recent Developments cisco Guterres of the Revolutionary Front has been Acting Special Representative for Since the Council last held a debate on for an Independent East Timor (known by Timor-Leste since mid-June, is expected to UNMIT on 22 February, significant political its Portuguese acronym, FRETILIN). On 20 brief the Council. developments in Timor-Leste have taken place. May, Taur Matan Ruak was inaugurated as No immediate Council action is expected On 17 March, the country held the first President, a largely ceremonial position, for following the debate. round of presidential elections, in which three a five-year term. In a press statement of 25 The Council is also planning to under- candidates—including the incumbent Presi- April (SC/10626), the Council congratulated take a visiting mission to Timor-Leste in dent José Ramos-Horta—were considered Timor-Leste on the “peaceful, smooth and

UN DOCUMENTS ON TIMOR!LESTE Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2037 (23 February 2012) extended UNMIT until 31 December 2012. S/RES/1704 (25 August 2006) established UNMIT. Security Council Press Statement SC/10626 (25 April 2012) congratulated Timor-Leste on the conduct of its presidential elections. Secretary-General’s Report S/2012/765 (15 October 2012) covered developments in Timor-Leste from 7 January to 20 September 2012. Letter S/2012/736 (2 October 2012) contained the 20 September letter from Prime Minister Gusmão to the Secretary-General.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Timor-Leste (con't) orderly manner” of the elections. to be an “important partner,” Timor-Leste Key Issues Parliamentary elections were held in no longer required the support of a UN The key issue for the Council is ensuring that Timor-Leste on 7 July. More than 20 parties peacekeeping or political mission. Instead, the full transfer of UNMIT’s responsibilities competed, although the two main parties— Timor-Leste wanted to establish an “inno- to Timor-Leste is smooth and that the tran- FRETILIN and the National Congress for vative working relationship of cooperation” sition period leading up to 31 December is Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT)—won 55 with the UN, which could perhaps involve seamless. of the 65 seats in the unicameral Parliament. the two-year appointment of a Special Envoy An ongoing priority for the Council is that On 15 July, the leader of CNRT—Prime of the Secretary-General. The letter noted the political and security situations remain Minister Xanana Gusmão—announced that that the government had formed a working stable after UNMIT’s departure. (UNMIT his party, which had won 30 seats, would go group that would further discuss with the was established in 2006 following a politi- into coalition with the two smaller parties that UN post-2012 matters. cal, humanitarian and security crisis in the had won the remaining ten seats: the Demo- The Secretary-General’s report of 15 country. The UN’s second peacekeeping mis- cratic Party (PD) and Frenti-Mudança. This October (S/2012/765) embraced the pro- sion in Timor-Leste—UNMISET—had con- announcement sparked protests from FRETI- posal for the UN to continue to be an impor- cluded its mission the year before.) LIN supporters who were angry that their tant partner in the new phase of Timor- A further issue for the Council is the party would again be excluded from the gov- Leste’s development. It noted that progress UN’s capacity to encourage developments by ernment. The unrest spread the following day had been made in strengthening capacities the government after UNMIT’s departure. from the capital Dili to outer districts, killing of state institutions, including in the security, These include the need to act against impu- one person and injuring four police o"cers. justice and governance sectors. nity and promote accountability for serious The new cabinet was sworn in on 8 August, Alongside these positive developments, o!ences committed during the 2006 crisis with several key portfolios not changing the report noted that Timor-Leste continued and prior to independence. hands, including that of the Prime Minister. to face challenges. These included the imple- Shortly after the new cabinet was formed, mentation of regulations prescribing the roles Options Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon paid a visit of the national police force (PNTL), the The Council is not required to take any for- to Timor-Leste and praised its people for the armed forces (F-FDTL) and other security mal action in order for UNMIT’s phased progress they had made since independence sector institutions and ensuring that there drawdown to be completed or for the UN’s in 2002. In his remarks on 15 August, the was respect for civilian oversight. In terms post-UNMIT country team to operate. Secretary-General commended Timor-Leste of the drawdown itself, the report noted However, in order to demonstrate its con- for consolidating its security sector, noting that UNMIT police were expected to have tinued support for Timor-Leste, including in that the government would still have the ended operational support to the PNTL by the implementation of its Strategic Devel- UN’s support after UNMIT’s departure. 31 October. It is anticipated that UNMIT opment Plan 2011-2030, the Council could Concerning Timor-Leste’s post-UNMIT police would then proceed with a drawdown adopt a presidential statement closer to the future, in a 20 September letter to the Sec- throughout November. time of UNMIT’s withdrawal. Such a state- retary-General (S/2012/736), Prime Min- In the concluding section of the report, ment could incorporate the views of Coun- ister Gusmão expressed “appreciation and the Secretary-General stated that he was cil members following the November visit- heartfelt gratitude” to the UN for its com- “pleased to recommend that UNMIT con- ing mission to Timor-Leste. (Under broadly mitment and support since 1999. Gusmão tinue to proceed with its phased drawdown similar circumstances, the Council expressed also stated that the criteria underpinning the through the next three months until comple- its continued support for Nepal’s peace pro- UN/Timor-Leste “Joint Transition Plan” of tion of its mandate on 31 December, consis- cess in a presidential statement of 14 January September 2011 had been successfully met. tent with the views of the government.” 2011. The UN Mission in Nepal completed These included the facts that: its departure the following day.) t
stability had prevailed; Human Rights-Related Developments t
general elections had been held in accor- During a press conference in Dili on 15 August, Council and Wider Dynamics dance with international standards; the Secretary-General was asked whether the UN The Council has been largely unified on t
the government had been formed based supported the pursuit and prosecution of people Timor-Leste. Several Council members with involved in human rights atrocities committed on the outcome of the elections; and in Timor-Leste from 1974 until independence, links to Timor-Leste, and those regional t
political opposition had had space to including people who are now in Indonesia. Ban states that are part of the wider core group operate in accordance with democratic responded that the UN’s position on this issue on Timor-Leste, have emphasised the need to principles. was clear and consistent: all the perpetrators of listen to the new Timor-Leste government as The letter also stated that significant prog- crimes against humanity and war crimes must to its preferences for the UN’s post-UNMIT be brought to justice. The Secretary-General ress had been achieved, leading the Timor- said that experience showed that political stabil- presence. While some have been mindful of Leste government to believe that it was “now ity could not be sustainable when there was no recent history and want to ensure that Timor- in a position to assume leadership of the justice for crimes against civilians, crimes against Leste is fully prepared to maintain stability national development process.” The letter humanity and war crimes. and security without the likelihood of another concluded that while the UN will continue UN peacekeeping mission, it seems that there

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Timor-Leste (con’t) is consensus in the Council that the coun- the lead on Timor-Leste—considered that wider viewpoint that the Council should be try is ready to embark on its post-UNMIT the trip was important for Council members focused more at this time on situations more future. to see first-hand the progress that had been directly a!ecting international peace and Concerning the visiting mission in made and the potential lessons for other sit- security. (The Council had intended to visit November, some elected members includ- uations. The permanent members’ decision Timor-Leste in November 2010 although ing Portugal and South Africa—the latter has not to go on the trip perhaps reflects their that trip was postponed.)

Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action over travel reports by the Monitoring Group investigations, held in June and co-spon- In November, the Council will hold a debate that assists the Committee and periodical sored by CTED and the Southeast Asia in which the chairs of the counter-terror- reviews of the sanctions list. Regional Centre for Counter-Terrorism ism-related committees—the 1267/1989 (under the Malaysian Ministry of Foreign Al-Qaida Committee, the 1373 Counter- CTC A!airs), dealt with means of bringing ter- Terrorism Committee (CTC) and the 1540 The CTC is planning a special meeting rorists to justice; and Committee (concerning weapons of mass with UN member states and international, t
the third of a series of seminars on the destruction)—are expected to brief. No out- regional and subregional organisations on 20 role of the prosecution in terrorist cases come is anticipated. November in New York to discuss measures was held in Algiers from 5-7 June, during required to prevent and suppress terrorist which close to 40 prosecutors and judges Key Recent Developments financing. The special meeting will focus on from di!erent regions came together with 1267/1989 Committee raising awareness of the terrorist financing representatives of international, regional The Ombudsperson, Kimberly Prost, sub- threat and drawing attention to the related and sub-regional organisations to examine mitted her fourth report (S/2012/590) to the best practices of states to hinder terrorism their role in bringing terrorists to justice. Council on 30 July 2012. She noted that state and their relevance to the implementation cooperation was generally strong, and e!orts of resolution 1373. The chair of the CTC, 1540 Committee ongoing to overcome some of the most dif- Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri (India), will The main issue dealt with by the Commit- ficult problems, including the question of chair the event. tee in the last few months was the appoint- access to confidential/classified information. The Counter-Terrorism Committee Exec- ment of the Group of Experts (GoE). Resolu- The Ombudsperson continued to request utive Directorate (CTED), which assists the tion 1977 called for the Secretary-General to that her mandate be expanded to cover CTC, concluded a five-day comprehensive establish a group of eight experts after con- instances of continued application of sanc- visit to Djibouti on 27 September. Issues sultation with the Committee. The resolution tions measures against individuals already raised during the visit included maritime also asked the Committee to consider recom- delisted and to directly transmit exemption and cargo security, law enforcement, bor- mendations for the Committee and the GoE requests from individuals and entities to the der management and sta! training. Another on expertise requirements, broad geographic Committee for its consideration. topic raised with senior government o"cials representation, working methods, modalities Of the 19 cases processed by the Ombud- during the mission was the importance of and structure, including consideration of the sperson, since the establishment of the posi- respecting human rights while countering feasibility of a coordination and leadership tion, and upon which a decision was taken by terrorism. position for the GoE. The resolution called the 1267/1989 Committee, one was denied CTED organised workshops and semi- for these recommendations to be presented by the Council; one was amended and a nars in di!erent regions on various issues: to the Council no later than 31 August 2011. name of an entity was removed as requested; t
a workshop held in Rabat from 17-19 After the recommendations were put for- and 16 were delisted. (The Al-Qaida sanc- July was devoted to developing e!ective ward, the Committee members had nine tions list currently includes 236 individuals and comprehensive strategies to counter names of qualified experts before them but and 68 entities and other groups or undertak- incitement of terrorist acts motivated by were unable to agree on a list of eight experts ings associated with Al-Qaida.) extremism and intolerance; to recommend to the Secretary-General. The Committee has also been busy going t
a seminar in Kuala Lumpur on joint Di!erent countries from di!erent regions

UN DOCUMENTS ON COUNTER!TERRORISM Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2055 (29 June 2012) expanded the number of experts to nine. S/RES/1989 (17 June 2011) empowered the Ombudsperson to make delisting recommendations to the 1267/1989 Committee. S/RES/1977 (20 April 2011) renewed the mandate of the 1540 Committee for ten years. S/RES/1963 (20 December 2010) extended the mandate of CTED until 31 December 2013. S/RES/1624 (14 September 2005) called on states to take measures to prohibit by law, and to prevent, acts of incitement to commit terrorism. S/RES/1540 (28 April 2004) established the 1540 Committee and its mandate. S/RES/1373 (28 September 2001) established the CTC and its mandate. S/RES/1267 (15 October 1999) established the Al-Qaida and Taliban Committee and its mandate. Latest Joint Meeting Record S/PV.6767 (10 May 2012) Other Concept note on the special meeting of the Counter-Terrorism Committee for the 20 November event, prepared by CTED. S/2012/590 (30 July 2012) was the Ombudsperson’s fourth report. S/2012/16 (6 January 2012) was the CTED global implementation survey of resolution 1624. S/2011/790 (20 December 2011) was the report on linkages between Al-Qaida and the Taliban. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Committee Chairs CTC Ambassador Hardeep Singh Puri (India). 1540 Committee Ambassador Baso Sangqu (South Africa). 1267/1989 Committee Ambassador Peter Wittig (Germany).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 25 Counter-Terrorism (con't) stressed di!erent factors in choosing experts, the newly formed GoE. As their appointment collect their thoughts regarding the renewal and a solution was not in sight. Several meet- was considerably delayed, this process may of the Ombudsperson’s and the Monitoring ings on this issue were convened, including at spill over into early 2013. Group’s mandates, which expire in Decem- deputy permanent representative level, but ber. At present, it seems that Council mem- to no avail. Key Issues bers are in agreement that both mandates To circumvent the impasse, the US Improving implementation by member states should be renewed, yet there may be dis- suggested that the number of experts be of all counter-terrorism Council resolutions agreements over the specifics of each man- expanded to nine, and thus, after the Com- is a key issue. date. One issue that is likely to be negoti- mittee reached a consensus on the issue, the A new key issue is assessing the implica- ated are possible adjustments to the role and Council adopted resolution 2055 on 29 June, tions of the wider mandate of the Ombud- resources of the O"ce of the Ombudsperson. expanding the number of experts to nine. sperson under resolution 1989 and whether Points that are likely to arise in all three After the resolution was passed and the Com- the mandate should be further adjusted, in briefings are the issues of compliance with, mittee was in agreement, the nine experts light of its upcoming renewal. and implementation of, the regimes. In the were appointed, with the UK expert serv- Regarding the 1540 Committee, a key past months Council members have shown ing as coordinator. Several experts will begin issue is how the newly appointed GoE a growing interest in capacity-building and their work in New York by the end of October, experts will interact with the Committee, via assistance to states in order to enable them to and all are expected to arrive by the begin- its coordinator. better comply with sanctions and their obli- ning of 2013. gations under the regimes. The next step for the 1540 Committee Council and Wider Dynamics is the preparation of the annual review due Concerning the 1267/1989 Commit- by the end of the year, with the assistance of tee, Council members are starting to

Working Methods

Expected Council Action Council President that month—Ambassador Group. Throughout the year, the Working Late in November the Council will hold an Cabral—provided a summary of the discus- Group has been meeting on average once a open debate on its working methods. The sions, highlighting key recommendations month. One of its tasks has been analysing Chair of the Informal Working Group on made. He praised work done on working a matrix of proposals made during the last Documentation and Other Procedural Ques- methods within the Council, in particular by open debate. tions, Ambassador José Filipe Moraes Cabral Japan, reflected in Notes by the President of In March (during the UK presidency), (Portugal), will brief. the Council S/2006/507 and S/2010/507 (see members held ambassadorial-level consulta- India and Portugal will jointly prepare a SCR’s “In Hindsight: The Working Methods tions to discuss working methods related to concept note; no outcome is expected. Open Debate” in the January 2012 Forecast). improving management of the Council pro- Ambassador Cabral also recognised the gramme and sessions. A non-paper prepared Key Recent Developments work of the group known as the Small Five jointly by Portugal and the UK to facilitate The upcoming debate will be the fifth Coun- (S-5), comprising Costa Rica, Jordan, Liech- the discussion outlined the key areas: peri- cil working methods debate in UN history. tenstein, Singapore and Switzerland, in pre- odicity (to spread mandate renewals more (Previous debates were held in 1994, 2008, senting the Council “with useful thoughts evenly throughout the year avoiding spikes 2010 and 2011.) The increased frequency and proposals” aimed at improving its work- in the Council’s work); conference resources in recent years is indicative of the sustained ing methods. He stressed that the Coun- (better planning of the meetings throughout interest on the part of member states in this cil needed to intensify its commitment to the month aimed at financial savings); and matter. monitoring the implementation of the newly interactivity (aiming at less recourse to speak- Speakers in the 2011 debate made numer- agreed practices and assess their impact on ers’ lists in consultations to achieve more ous recommendations on possible modifica- the goals of enhanced transparency, e"ciency informality, as well as increased use of video- tions of working methods and practices of and interaction with the UN membership. conferencing to maintain closer contact with the Council. In what was itself a rare work- As of 1 January 2012, Portugal assumed missions in the field). On 5 June, the Council ing method, at the end of the debate, the the chairmanship of the Informal Working issued a Note by the President expressing

UN DOCUMENTS ON WORKING METHODS Notes from the President of the Security Council S/2012/402 (5 June 2012) expressed members’ commitment to several e"ciency- enhancing working methods modifications. S/2010/507 (26 July 2010) updated the 2006 Note 507. S/2006/507 (19 July 2006) contained a list of practices and measures aimed at enhancing the e"ciency and transparency of the Council’s work as well as improving interaction and dialogue with non-Council members. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.6672 (30 November 2011) was an open debate on working methods presided by Portugal. S/PV.6300 (22 April 2010) was an open debate on working methods presided by Japan. S/PV.5968 and Resumption 1 (27 August 2008) was an open debate on working methods presided by Belgium. S/PV.3483 (16 December 1994) was the first open debate on Security Council working methods (presided by Rwanda). Other A/66/PV.108 (16 May 2012) was the meeting of the General Assembly in which the S-5 withdrew its draft resolution. A/66/L.42/Rev.2 (15 May 2012) was the revised draft resolution on Council working methods put forward by the S-5.

26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 Working Methods (con't) members’ commitment to several e"ciency- primarily from the P5, to withdraw the draft. An issue for the membership at large is enhancing measures (S/2012/402). On 14 May, responding to a letter from the whether and in what way to continue engag- Over the past several months, the Work- President of the General Assembly asking ing the Council from outside on working ing Group has been addressing other issues, for advice as to the majority requirement for methods. including: the adoption of the S-5 proposal, the Under- A related issue is tension that exists t
the process of appointing the chairs of the Secretary-General for Legal A!airs issued an between Article 30 of the UN Charter, which Council’s subsidiary bodies; opinion suggesting that a two-thirds major- states that the Council shall adopt its proce- t
the issue of pen-holders in drafting ity would be needed. Heeding numerous dure, and Article 10, which states that the resolutions; submissions to defer action, the S-5 with- Assembly may make recommendations to the t
management of open debates (including drew the draft to avoid a procedurally con- Council on its powers and functions. the speakers’ order); tentious discussion in the Assembly that in t
the process of drafting of the annual their view would have been inevitable. Speak- Council and Wider Dynamics report to the General Assembly, as well as ing on behalf of the S-5, Ambassador Paul Elected Council members have in recent the monthly assessment of the work and Seger (Switzerland) expressed hopes that the years taken the lead on working methods (the informal briefings for membership at large Council would intensify its e!orts within the debates in 2008, 2010 and 2011 were initi- by the President of the Council. framework of the Working Group to improve ated by Belgium, Japan and Portugal, respec- A Note by the President on some of these its working methods. He said that the S-5 had tively). However, by virtue of their continu- issues was under silence procedure at the listened carefully to the permanent members’ ous presence on the Council, the permanent time of writing. statements that they were “ready to consider members have had the most prominent role The S-5, after several years of concerted our recommendations seriously, and we hold in shaping the Council’s working methods. work on working methods of particular con- them to their promise, with the Assembly as Most tend to argue that the Council alone cern, tabled a draft resolution (A/66/L.42/ witness.” should be the engine of any change in its Rev.2) during the 66th session of the Gen- working methods and are opposed to the eral Assembly. The draft acknowledged the Key Issues involvement of other UN bodies in the matter. significant steps already taken by the Council A key issue for Council members is whether The lead on working methods, at least to improve its working methods, but empha- they will be willing and able to maintain the nominally, is the elected member chairing sised the need for additional measures aimed momentum that has emerged in 2012 on the Working Group. In practice, this depends at enhancing its accountability, transparency working methods. on the level of interest and energy on the part and e!ectiveness and included 20 recom- A related issue—should the Council con- of the delegation chairing the subsidiary body. mendations to that e!ect. tinue its increased activity on working meth- The current chair, Portugal, leaves the Coun- In the weeks leading up to the scheduled ods—is what key areas it should next focus cil at the end of 2012 and the dynamics will 16 May vote, the S-5 came under pressure, on. likely change depending on who succeeds it.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 27 Notable Dates for November Security Council Report Sta" Bruno Stagno Executive Director REPORT DUE REPORTS FOR CONSIDERATION IN NOVEMBER REQUESTING DOCUMENT Joanna Weschler 15 October ...... Secretary-General’s UNMIT report (Timor-Leste) ...... S/RES/2037 Deputy Executive Director & 19 October ...... DRC Sanctions Group of Experts annual report ...... S/RES/2021 Director of Research 22 October ...... Secretary-General’s report on Somalia piracy ...... S/RES/2020 Amanda Roberts Coordinating Editor & 25 October ...... Secretary-General’s report on illicit cross-border tra"cking ...... S/PRST/2012/16 Senior Research Analyst ...... and movement Shamala Kandiah Thompson 31 October ...... Secretary-General’s UNMIK report (Kosovo) ...... S/RES/1244 What’s in Blue Editor & Senior Research Analyst late October ...... Secretary-General’s UNSMIL report (Libya) ...... S/RES/2040 5 November ...... Report of the High-Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina ...... S/RES/2019 Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & 9 November ...... Secretary-General’s UNMISS report (South Sudan) ...... S/RES/2057 Development O"cer

12 November ...... DPRK Panel of Experts report (to 1718 Committee) ...... S/RES/2050 Lansana Gberie Research Analyst 14 November ...... Secretary-General’s report on implementation of ...... S/RES/2064 ...... resolution 1701 (Lebanon) Paul Romita Research Analyst 14 November ...... Secretary-General’s MONUSCO report (DRC) ...... S/RES/2053 Eran Sthoeger 16 November ...... Secretary-General’s UNAMI report (Iraq) ...... S/RES/2061 Research Analyst 20 November ...... Report of the Emergency Relief Coordinator for Somalia ...... S/RES/2060 Nicholas Walbridge 26 November ...... Secretary-General’s report on planning for an intervention force ...... S/RES/2071 Research Analyst ...... in Mali Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator

Dahlia Morched MANDATES EXPIRE RELEVANT DOCUMENT Research Assistant 16 November ...... EUFOR authorisation (Bosnia and Herzegovina) ...... S/RES/2019 Laura Coquard-Patry 17 November ...... UNISFA (Abyei) ...... S/RES/2047 Research Assistant

22 November ...... Somalia anti-piracy authorisations ...... S/RES/2020 James Reed Ball III Junior Research Assistant 30 November ...... DRC Sanctions and Group of Experts ...... S/RES/2021 Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant

Stevenson Swanson Copy Editor (Consultant) OTHER IMPORTANT DATES early November ...... Some Council members are likely to go on a visiting mission to Timor-Leste. Security Council Report is a non- profit organization supported by the mid November ...... The annual report of the Security Council will be presented to the General Assembly. Governments of Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, mid November ...... There will be a workshop for newly elected Council members organised by Finland. Germany, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, 17 November ...... Sierra Leone is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections. Luxembourg, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and Switzerland, 19 November ...... The Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on piracy as a threat to international peace the Ford Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur ...... and security. Foundation, International Development 26 November ...... The Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on its working methods. Research Centre and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

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28 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012