November 2012 Monthly Forecast 2 Status Update since our Overview October Forecast 3 Open Debate on Piracy India will have the presidency of the Security by Portugal). 4 Somalia Council in November. Two open debates are Briefings in consultations are likely on: 6 Sudan and South Sudan planned on piracy as a global threat and on the t Wester n Sahara, by Personal Envoy Christo- 8 South Sudan Council’s working methods. pher Ross; 9 Democratic Republic of Debates are scheduled on Bosnia and Herze- t Sudan and South Sudan, most likely by Spe- Congo govina, with a briefing by High Representative cial Envoy Haile Menkerios; 11 Sierra Leone Valentin Inzko; on Timor-Leste, with a briefing by t the implementation of resolution 1701, by the acting head of the UN Integrated Mission in Special Coordinator for Lebanon Derek 12 Western Sahara Timor-Leste Finn Reske-Nielsen; and on the UN Plumbly; 14 Libya Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo, with t the Somalia/Eritrea Sanctions Committee 15 Lebanon a briefing by its head, Farid Zarif. (chaired by India); 16 Iraq Early in the month several Council members t the DRC Sanctions Committee (chaired by 18 Yemen will undertake a visiting mission to Timor-Leste. Azerbaijan); Mid-month members will participate in the t the DPRK Sanctions Committee (chaired by 19 Bosnia and Herzegovina annual “Hitting the Ground Running” workshop Portugal); and 20 Kosovo organised by Finland for the newly elected Coun- t the Secretary-General’s report on illicit cross- 22 DPRK (North Korea) cil members. border tra"cking and movement requested 23 Timor-Leste Briefings are expected on: in an April presidential statement (S/ t the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Commit- PRST/2012/16). 25 Counter-Terrorism tee (chaired by Germany); the 1373 Counter- In addition, briefings and consultations are 26 Working Methods Te r r o r i s m C o m m i t t e e (chaired by India); and possible on developments in Guinea-Bissau, Syria, 28 Notable Dates the 1540 Committee concerning weapons of Sierra Leone following the elections scheduled mass destruction (chaired by South Africa)— for 17 November, and on the plans for an inter- this joint briefing may be followed by a debate; national force in Mali. t the situation in Ye m e n , by Special Adviser Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- Jamal Benomar; lutions to renew: t the visiting mission to Timor-Leste, by Ambas- t the mandate of UN Interim Security Force sador Baso Sangqu (South Africa) who is lead- in Abyei; ing the delegation; and t the DRC sanctions and the mandate of the t Libya and the ICC by the Court’s Prosecutor, Group of Experts; Fatou Bensouda. t the authorisation of the Somalia anti-piracy Briefings to be followed by consultations are measures; and likely on: t the authorisation of the EU-led multinational t the UN Support Mission in Libya by the head stabilisation force in Bosnia and Herzegovina. of Political A!airs, Je!rey Feltman; The Council will adopt and present its annual t the UN Mission in South Sudan, by the head report of the Security Council to the General of Peacekeeping, Hervé Ladsous; Assembly in November. t the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq by its At press time, it also seemed that some Council head, Martin Kobler; meetings, which were cancelled when UN Head- 1 November 2012 t the situation in the DRC by the head of the quarters closed down due to Hurricane Sandy, This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. UN Stabilisation Mission in the DRC, Roger would be rescheduled in November, including Meece; 1559 consultations (Lebanon) and a private meet- For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please t the situation in the Middle East, also by Felt- ing with the president of the International Court subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” man; and of Justice. series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. t the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee (chaired Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2012 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our October Forecast Haiti of international peace and security” (S/ on Darfur in October. On 3 October, the On 3 October, the Council held a debate (S/ PV.6849). The focus of the open debate was Council condemned the ambush on a UNA- PV.6842) on the Secretary-General’s most the relationship of the Council with the ICC MID patrol in El Geneini by unidentified recent MINUSTAH report (S/2012/678). since it commenced operation in 2002. Fifty individuals that led to the deaths of four During the debate, the Council was briefed states and the EU participated in the debate. Nigerian peacekeepers and the wounding of by Mariano Fernández, the Special Repre- Speaking in the Council were the Secretary- eight others (SC/10781). On 17 October, the sentative of the Secretary-General and the General; the President of the ICC, Judge Council condemned the attack by uniden- Head of MINUSTAH. On 12 October, the Sang-Hyun Song; and Phakiso Mochochoko, tified individuals on a UNAMID patrol in Council adopted resolution 2070, renewing from the O"ce of the Prosecutor of the ICC. North Darfur that resulted in the death of a the mandate of MINUSTAH until 15 Octo- South African peacekeeper and the wounding ber 2013. Security Council Elections of three others (SC/10795). On 18 October, the General Assembly elected Mali five new members to serve on the Council for Côte d’Ivoire On 12 October, the Council unanimously a two-year term starting on 1 January 2013. On 25 October, the Council was briefed in passed resolution 2071 expressing its readi- In the first round of voting, Rwanda was consultations by Ambassador Gert Rosen- ness to respond positively to a request from elected with 148 votes, as was Australia (140 thal (Guatemala), chair of the 1572 Sanc- Mali regarding an intervention force to assist votes) and Argentina (182). Those three can- tions Committee, on the midterm report the Malian armed forces to reclaim the north- didates received the required two-thirds of (S/2012/766) of the Group of Experts that ern half of the country pending a report by votes cast from UN members “present and assists the Committee. The report high- the Secretary-General on the military plan- voting.” In the second round, Luxembourg lighted worrying recent security develop- ning for such an intervention—due in late (with 131 votes) was elected ahead of Fin- ments in Côte d’Ivoire, including the exis- November. The resolution also expressed land. The Republic of Korea (149 votes) beat tence of a command centre infrastructure the Council’s readiness to impose targeted Cambodia in the second round after both set up by the pro-Gbagbo rebels in Accra, sanctions against Malian rebel groups “who members had acquired more votes than Bhu- Ghana as well as training camps in eastern do not cut o! all ties to terrorist organisa- tan in the first round but had not achieved a Liberia. The report also cites military actions tions, including Al-Qaida in the Maghreb and two-thirds majority. that have been conducted since early 2012 a"liated groups.” The resolution requested in Côte d’Ivoire from Ghana and the trans- the Secretary General to provide military Syria fer of funds from Ghana to Liberia, which is planners to work with ECOWAS and devise On 24 October, the Security Council issued a identified as a recruitment platform and rear a plan for the deployment of troops from press statement in support of an Eid al-Adha operating base. Earlier in the month, on 16 ECOWAS, which on 18 September had been ceasefire proposed by UN-Arab League Joint October, the Council received a letter from asked by Malian authorities to send in troops Special Representative Lakhdar Brahimi fol- the Secretary-General (S/2012/772) not- to help them retake the north. After the res- lowing his briefing in consultations via video- ing that in light of the “deterioration in the olution was adopted, the representatives of conference from Cairo (SC/10800). On 16 security situation in Côte d’Ivoire as well as Mali and Côte d’Ivoire, as chair of ECOWAS, October, Portugal held a closed-Arria for- evolving threats”, it was recommended that made statements thanking the Council for its mula meeting so that Council members could the Council defer the reduction of UNOCI’s support (S/PV.6846). informally meet with Paulo Pinheiro, the military strength—which had been autho- chair of the Human Rights Council’s Com- rised on 26 July in resolution 2062—until Israel/Palestine mission of Inquiry on Syria. Earlier in the after an assessment to be conducted early in On 15 October, the Council held its quar- month, the Council issued two other press 2013. The letter referred to “attacks target- terly open debate on the Middle East. In statements on Syria. On 4 October, following ing national security forces in and around his remarks, Under-Secretary-General for nearly 24 hours of negotiations, the Council Abidjan and along the borders with Ghana Political A!airs Je!rey Feltman asserted “the condemned the shelling of the Turkish town and Liberia, resulting in the killing of Ivorian window of opportunity for taking construc- of Akcakale by Syrian forces (SC/10783). On security personnel and assailants.” tive action to preserve the two-state solution 5 October the Council condemned terror- may now be becoming more limited.” More ist attacks in Aleppo that killed dozens and Women, Peace and Security than 45 other parties (including the repre- injured more than 100 civilians (SC/10784).