November 2014
Monthly Forecast
2 Status Update since our Overview October Forecast 4 Counter-Terrorism 5 Iraq Australia will hold the presidency of the Coun and the chair of the PBC Guinea Bissau con cil in November. The country’s Foreign Minis figuration Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar 7 Burundi ter Julie Bishop will preside over an open debate Patriota (Brazil); 8 Liberia on global e orts to counter terrorism, violent • the situation in Iraq by the Special Represen 10 South Sudan extremism and the growing threat of foreign ter tative Nikolay Mladenov and the UN High 12 Sudan (Darfur) rorist fighters . The Secretary General will brief. Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Debates will be held on: Al Hussein; and 13 Somalia • Bosnia and Herzegovina , with a briefing by • the humanitarian situation in Syria , most likely 14 Guinea-Bissau High Representative Valentin Inzko; and by Under Secretary General for Humanitar 15 Libya • Kosovo , with a briefing by Special Representa ian A airs Valerie Amos. 17 Syria tive Farid Zarif. Briefings in consultations are likely on: 18 Lebanon (UNIFIL) Briefings are expected on: • destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons by • cross cutting thematic issues in UN Policing Special Adviser Sigrid Kaag; 20 UN Policing by Under Secretary General for Peacekeeping • the work of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Com 21 Sanctions Operations Hervé Ladsous; mittee , by its chair, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas 23 Kosovo • issues related to UN Sanctions across the dif (Luxembourg); and 24 DPRK (North Korea) ferent sanctions regimes, by Under Secretary • implementation of resolution 1701 on Leba 25 Bosnia and General for Political A airs, Je rey Feltman; non , by Special Coordinator Derek Plumbly. Herzegovina • developments concerning ICC cases in Libya Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso by Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda; and lutions to renew: 27 International Court of Justice • the work of the 1540 Committee on non pro • the mandate of UNMISS in South Sudan ; liferation and weapons of mass destruction , • the mandate of UNIOGBIS in Guinea Bissau ; 28 Notable Dates by its chair, Ambassador Oh Joon (Republic • counter piracy measures for Somalia ; and of Korea). • the authorisation for the EU led multinational Briefings, followed by consultations, are stabilisation force in Bosnia and Herzegovina . expected on: In November, the Council will also hold an • developments in Burundi , by Parfait Onanga election (concurrently with the General Assembly) Anyanga, the head BNUB and by Ambassador for five judges of the International Court of Justice . Paul Seger (Switzerland), the chair of the PBC The president of the Council will present its Burundi configuration; annual report to the General Assembly late in • developments in Liberia , by Ladsous, and the month. Ambassador Mårten Grunditz (Sweden), The annual Council workshop with newly chair of the PBC Liberia Configuration; elected members organised by Finland is also • the Middle East , by Assistant Secretary planned for November. General for Political A airs Jens Anders A public wrap up session is scheduled for the Toyberg Frandzen; end of the month. • the work of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Com Throughout the month members will be fol mittee by its chair, Ambassador María Cristina lowing closely events in the Central African Perceval (Argentina); Republic, Mali, Ukraine and Yemen as well as 30 October 2014 • the situation in Guinea Bissau and the work events related to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org . of UNIOGBIS by its head Miguel Trovoada further meetings may be required. •
For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our October Forecast
Mali the report of the AU Investigation Commit On 21 October, the Council adopted resolu On 3 October, Council members issued a tee on the assassination of the Ngok Dinka tion 2181, extending the mandate of the EU press statement condemning an attack on paramount chief in May 2013 to be released. operation in the CAR until 15 March 2015. MINUSMA in which nine Nigerien peace Elnor argued that Abyei remains part of The next day, Council members were briefed keepers were killed (SC/11587) and on Sudan until a final settlement is reached. under “any other business” on recent events 7 October, another press statement con in CAR by Special Representative Babacar demned an attack in Kidal which killed one Peacekeeping Gaye via video teleconference. Senegalese peacekeeper (SC/11591). On On 9 October, the Council was briefed by 8 October, Under Secretary General for Military Advisor Lieutenant General Maq Haiti Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous presented the sood Ahmed from the Department of Peace On 14 October, the Security Council adopt most recent Mali report (S/2014/692) and keeping Operations and force commanders ed resolution 2180 extending the mandate reported that MINUSMA is no longer oper Lieutenant General Carlos Alberto dos San of the MINUSTAH until 15 October 2015. ating in a peacekeeping environment. The tos Cruz (Brazil) of MONUSCO in the DRC, It authorized a reduction in the mission’s Foreign Minister of Mali, Abdoulaye Diop, Major General Jean Bosco Kazura (Rwanda) military component from 5,021 personnel also addressed the Council during the pub of MINUSMA in Mali and Lieutenant Gen to 2,370 while keeping the police contingent lic session (S/PV.7274). On 17 October, the eral Iqbal Singh Singha (India) of UND unchanged at 2,601 as recommended by the Council welcomed the scheduled resumption OF in the Golan Heights. They presented, Secretary General in his August report to the on 19 October of the inter Malian negotia respectively, on the concept and implica Council (S/2014/617). While the resolution tion process in Algiers (SC/11604). tions of the protection of civilians, expecta was adopted by consensus, Argentina and tions from military contingents in a changed Chile gave an explanation of vote, expressing Ukraine security environment and accomplishment of regret that they had not been in a position to On 3 October, Council members issued a traditional mandates in a changed politico co sponsor the resolution as their concerns press statement condemning the killing of an military environment (S/PV.7275). about the recommended accelerated draw ICRC sta member in Ukraine (SC/11588). down had not been fully taken into account. On 24 October, the Council was briefed Yemen Guatemala and Ecuador also took the floor by Assistant Secretary General for Political Council members issued a press statement as countries contributing troops to MINUS A airs Oscar Fernandez Taranco and Assis on 10 October condemning a bomb attack in TAH to express similar concerns, emphasising tant Secretary General for Human Rights, Sana’a that killed at least 47 people, as well as that decisions about peacekeeping operations Ivan Šimonović on the political and human condemning attacks against Yemeni security must take the opinions of troop contributing rights situation in Ukraine, respectively (S/ forces on 8 and 9 October (SC/11595). On countries into account (S/PV.7277). PV.7287). 13 October, Special Adviser Jamal Benomar briefed Council members in consultations. Ebola Sudan-South Sudan Afterwards, in elements to the press, Coun On 14 October, the Council was briefed on On 7 October, Assistant Secretary General cil members expressed their determination the Ebola epidemic in West Africa by Special for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet briefed to address increasing terrorist attacks by Al Representative Anthony Banbury, the head Council members in consultations on the Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, urged imple of the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency latest UNISFA report (S/2014/709). Mulet mentation of the national peace and partner Response (UNMEER), Under Secretary said unilateral actions by the parties have ship agreement, welcomed Khalid Bahah’s General for Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous not been helpful and referred to the Ngok nomination as prime minister and agreed to and Assistant Secretary General for Politi Dinka’s decision to establish a committee to consider urgently evidence to possibly sanc cal A airs Tayé Brook Zerihoun (S/PV.7279). lobby for international support for October tion spoilers. The next day, Council members issued a press 2013 referendum, which was not recognised statement reiterating the Council’s determi by Sudan, but during which the Ngok Dinka Central African Republic nation that the Ebola outbreak constituted a voted overwhelmingly to join South Sudan. On 10 October, Council members issued a threat to international peace and security and Additionally, he mentioned the instability press statement (SC/11596), condemning requested that UN peacekeeping operations that could be caused by Sudan’s intention to an attack against a MINUSCA convoy in and political missions in West Africa closely include Abyei among the areas that will par Bangui, in which one peacekeeper was killed collaborate with UNMEER (SC/11602). ticipate in the country’s 2015 national elec and several others injured. Council mem tions. The Council met again on 14 October bers expressed concern about the upsurge Golan Heights (UNDOF) to adopt resolution 2179 extending UNIS of violence and strongly condemned all On 20 October, Assistant Secretary Gener FA’s mandate until 28 February 2015. Dur attacks against civilians and acts of violence al for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet briefed ing the meeting, Ambassador Francis Deng between communities. The statement sup Council members in consultations, following of South Sudan and Ambassador Rahamtalla ported the transitional authority’s call for up a 19 September presidential statement (S/ Mohamed Osman Elnor of Sudan addressed all armed groups to implement the 23 July PRST/2014/19) that requested an update on the Council (S/PV.7276). Deng called for agreement to cease hostilities and violence. the steps necessary to maintain UNDOF’s
2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Status Update since our October Forecast (con’t) ability to carry out its mandate while adjust Working Methods Representative and head of MINURSO, ing the mission’s posture to minimise risk to On 23 October, the Security Council held its Kim Bolduc (Canada), who was to assume personnel. Discussions included the possible fifth annual open debate on working meth her position on 1 August, but has not yet use of new technologies, such as unmanned, ods (S/PV.7285). Ambassador María Cris travelled to her post due to opposition from unarmed aerial vehicles or satellite imagery, to tina Perceval (Argentina), the chair of the Morocco. Bolduc still briefed Council mem carry out monitoring tasks without exposing Informal Working Group on Documentation bers in consultations on the situation in the personnel to risk. Mulet said that both Israel and Other Procedural Questions, opened the territory along with Christopher Ross, the and Syria were reluctant to grant authorisa debate. In line with the open debate’s con Secretary General’s Personal Envoy for West tion for the use of such new technologies. cept paper (S/2014/725), the Ombudsperson ern Sahara. for the 1267/1989 Al Qaida Sanctions Com Israel/Palestine mittee, Kimberly Prost, and the Prosecutor Women, Peace and Security The Council met for its quarterly debate on of the International Criminal Court, Fatou On 28 October, the Security Council held the Middle East on 21 October (S/PV.7281). Bensouda, briefed with participation by 40 its annual open debate on women, peace Secretary General Ban Ki moon briefed fol member states. and security (S/PV.7289) to consider the lowing a trip to the region, which included his Secretary General’s latest report on the issue first visit to Gaza since this summer’s conflict Egypt (S/2014/693). As president of the Coun and his participation in a Gaza reconstruc Council members issued a press statement cil for October, Argentina circulated a con tion conference held in Cairo on 12 October. on 24 October that condemned the terror cept note on the e ects of displacement on He addressed the reconstruction e orts and ist attacks in the Sinai Peninsula that killed women, including both refugees and inter the immediate need for humanitarian relief in and injured dozens of Egyptian soldiers nally displaced persons, to guide discus Gaza. He urged urging an end to the nearly (SC/11615). sion (S/2014/731). The head of UN Wom 50 year occupation of the enclave, the full lift en, Phumzile Mlambo Ngcuka, briefed and ing of the blockade against it and for a solution Democratic Republic of the Congo delivered a statement from the Secretary to Israel’s legitimate security concerns. Coun On 27 October, the Council was briefed (S/ General, who was travelling in Africa. Special cil members also met informally at expert lev PV.7288) by Special Representative Mar Rapporteur on the Human Rights of IDPs Dr. el on 15 October to discuss a draft resolution tin Kobler on the latest MONUSCO report Chaloka Beyani and Suaad Allami, an Iraqi circulated on 30 September by Arab Group (S/2014/698). The newly appointed Special lawyer and the Founder and Director of Sadr representative Jordan, which calls for a com Envoy to the Great Lakes Region, Said Djin City Women’s Center and Legal Clinic, also prehensive solution to the Israeli Palestinian nit, also briefed on the latest report on imple participated. The Council adopted a presi conflict and the full withdrawal of Israel from mentation of the Peace and Security Frame dential statement that addressed the particu all of the Palestinian territory occupied since work Agreement (S/2014/697). Earlier in lar needs of displaced women, highlighted the 1967 by November 2016, for an independent the month, on 3 October, Council members impact of violent extremism on women and Palestinian state, a resolution of the status issued a press statement (SC/11586) not welcomed the Secretary General’s commis of Jerusalem as the capital of two states and ing with concern the lack of progress on the sioning of a global study in preparation for the a resolution of the problem of the Palestine voluntary surrender of the members of the 2015 High Level Review of the implementa refugees. On 29 October, Under Secretary rebel group Forces démocratiques de libération tion of resolution 1325 (S/PRST/2014/21). General for Political A airs Je rey Feltman du Rwanda (FDLR). Council members also briefed the Council at an urgent public meet reiterated their call on the DRC government, Côte d’Ivoire ing on rising tensions in East Jerusalem and to undertake, in coordination with MONUS On 29 October, the Council was briefed by continuing Israeli settlement expansion, held CO, military action against those leaders and Ambassador Cristian Barros (Chile), chair of at the request of Jordan (S/PV.7291). members of the FDLR who do not engage in the 1572 Côte d’Ivoire Sanctions Commit the demobilisation process or who continue tee (S/PV.7292). Barros reported on the work Annual Report of the Security Council to carry out human rights abuses. of the Committee since the last briefing (in The annual report of the Security Council consultations) held on 24 April and a modifi was unanimously adopted on 22 October Western Sahara cation of the sanctions regime through adop (S/2014/750). The report covered the period 1 Council members met in consultations on tion of resolution 2153 on 29 April. Barros August 2013 to 31 July 2014 and summarized the situation in Western Sahara on 27 Octo will also discuss the findings of the mid term the Council’s 238 formal meetings and sub ber. Under Secretary General for Peace report of the Group of Experts (S/2014/729). sequent outcomes, including 55 resolutions. keeping Hervé Ladsous briefed on the cur Permanent Representative of Côte d’Ivoire rent situation concerning the new Special Youssoufou Bamba also participated.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Counter-Terrorism
Expected Council Action framework established by the Council but funding, recruitment, demographics as well In November, the Council expects to hold also included several innovations. The main as recommendations for additional action to an open debate on global e orts to coun one is the obligation that member states shall address the threat. ter terrorism and violent extremism and on prevent the entry into or transit through their The CTC, with the support of its Execu the implementation of resolutions 2170 and territories of any individual about whom that tive Directorate, is expected to identify prin 2178 on the growing threat of foreign ter state has credible information that provides cipal gaps in member states’ capacities to rorist fighters. Australian Foreign Minister reasonable grounds to believe that he or she implement resolutions 1373 and 1624 that Julie Bishop is expected to preside. Expected is travelling for the purpose of participating may hinder states’ abilities to stem the flow to brief on UN counter terrorism e orts are in the financing, planning, preparation or of foreign terrorist fighters. Resolution 1373 the Secretary General and the chairs of the perpetration of terrorist acts. of 28 September 2001 mandates states to 1267/1989 Al Qaida Sanctions Committee, It also calls for state cooperation in pre criminalise the financing of terrorism and Ambassador Gary Quinlan (Australia) and venting individuals from travelling to join recruitment for terrorist groups, and resolu the 1373 Counter Terrorism Committee terrorist groups and those assisting them, by tion 1624 of 14 September 2005 calls upon (CTC), Ambassador Raimonda Murmokaitė sharing information, assistance with criminal member states to prohibit by law the incite (Lithuania). The adoption of a presidential investigations, and evidence gathering, as well ment to commit terrorist acts. The CTC is statement is the likely outcome. as financing and capacity building assistance. also mandated to identify good practices to The resolution places an emphasis on the stem the flow of foreign terrorist fighters and Background importance of countering violent extremism to facilitate technical assistance, specifically According to the Analytical Support and in order to prevent terrorism and encourages by promoting engagement between providers Monitoring Team of the 1267/1989 Al Qai engagement with relevant local communities of capacity building assistance and recipients. da Sanctions Committee, there are around and non governmental actors in developing 15,000 foreign terrorist fighters from more strategies to address the conditions conducive Key Issues than 80 countries who have fought with listed to the spread of violent extremism. A key issue for the Council is devising an Al Qaida associated groups in Syria and Iraq. Ahead of the meeting, the 1267/1989 Al e ective global framework to address the On 15 August, the Council unanimously Qaida Sanctions Committee on 23 Septem growing challenges related to foreign terrorist adopted resolution 2170, which specifically ber approved the addition of 14 individuals fighters. Making sure that counter terrorism condemned the Islamic State of Iraq and al and two entities to its list of individuals and activities worldwide are undertaken with due Sham (ISIS) and Al Nusrah Front (ANF) for entities subject to targeted financial sanctions, respect for international human rights norms the recruitment of foreign terrorist fighters travel ban and arms embargo. Most of them is an ongoing related issue. whose presence is exacerbating conflict and were specifically listed after member states Another key issue is to identify and sanction contributing to violent radicalisation. It added provided evidence that they were involved in those sponsoring terrorism by facilitating and six individuals associated with ISIS and ANF financing or facilitating the travel of foreign financing the recruitment of foreign fighters. to the 1267/1989 Al Qaida sanctions list and terrorist fighters for ISIS and ANF. A further related issue is how to combine expressed the Council’s readiness to consider The sixteenth report of the Monitoring a coercive approach against terrorism with further designations of individuals involved in Team, which was discussed by the Com measures aimed at promoting non violent financing or facilitating the travel of foreign mittee on 8 October, identified short and expression of political claims and reducing terrorist fighters. In addition, the resolution long term challenges related to this issue. sympathy and support for violent extremism. called upon member states to suppress this Short term challenges include the current flow, bring foreign terrorist fighters to justice killings, attacks and abuses being carried out Options and engage with those at risk of being recruit in the field and long term challenges involve The Council could adopt a presidential ed to discourage travel to Iraq and Syria. concerns regarding the significant increase statement: On 24 September, the Council held a in fighters who are returning to their home • emphasising the need for states to have the summit meeting chaired by US President countries and their potential impact on tools and mobilise the resources to pre Barack Obama on the issue of foreign terrorist domestic terrorism. vent their citizens from becoming foreign fighters. The concept note circulated ahead of The Council is expecting a briefing by the terrorist fighters; the meeting underlined how foreign terrorist chairs of the relevant committees about their • underscoring the critical need to counter fighters “not only exacerbate existing conflicts respective e orts to implement resolutions violent extremism through both engage but also often return home possessing new 2170 and 2178. ment with civil society and building resil skills and connections, increasing the threat of These include a report by the Monitor ience among communities most at risk of home grown terrorist attacks” (S/2014/648). ing and Analytical Support Team to the recruitment and radicalisation; Resolution 2178, which was adopted 1267/1989 Al Qaida Sanctions Committee • asking the Secretary General to appoint unanimously at the beginning of the meet on the threat, including to the region, posed a special representative against violent ing, built on the current counter terrorism by ISIS and ANF, their sources of arms and extremism; and
81'2&80(17621&2817(5Ǔ7(5525,60 Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2178 (24 September 2014) imposed obligations on member states to respond to the threat RIIRUHLJQWHUURULVWƃJKWHUV S/RES/2170 $XJXVW FRQGHPQHGWKHUHFUXLWPHQWRIIRUHLJQWHUURULVWƃJKWHUVE\,6,6DQG$1) Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7272 (24 September 2014) was a summit-level debate chaired by US President Barack Obama on counter-terrorism.
4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Counter-Terrorism (con’t)
• threatening all state and non state actors Council and Wider Dynamics extremism to fight against terrorism, much of that are providing funding, weapons or oth At a time when Council dynamics have ren the Council’s work so far has focused on the er kinds of support to terrorist groups— dered the Council unable to overcome divi imposition of sanctions. In the negotiation of including through the payment of ran sions on a number of pressing situations (e.g. recent resolutions, some Council members soms—with the imposition of sanctions and Israel/Palestine, Syria and Ukraine), counter have advocated the inclusion of references to threatening those state and non state actors terrorism appears to be one of the issues gen compliance with domestic law and interna that do not respect their legal obligations erating unanimous support among Council tional law, including human rights law, when with the imposition of secondary sanctions. members. Although resolution 2178 incor countering terrorism. porated the importance of countering violent
Iraq
Expected Council Action southern provinces. ISIS has controlled Fal individuals under the 1267/1989 Al Qaida In mid November, Special Representative lujah and parts of Ramadi in Anbar prov sanctions regime and expressing the Council’s Nickolay Mladenov will brief the Council on ince since December 2013, and at press time readiness to list individuals involved in financ the prospects for the e ort by Iraqi forces other areas of the province have also been ing or facilitating the travel of foreign terrorist and a US led coalition to successfully neu subject to persistent ISIS attacks. If ISIS con fighters. On 24 September, the Council fur tralize the threat of the Islamic State of Iraq solidates its power in Anbar, it will control ther strengthened its framework for counter and al Sham (ISIS). Deliberations will also borders with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Syria; ing foreign terrorist fighters when it adopted focus on the newly formed Shi’a led govern transportation routes to Baghdad; and criti resolution 2178, obligating member states ment and Baghdad’s strained relationship cal infrastructure, such as airbases and dams. to prevent the entry or transit through their with Iraq’s Sunni and Kurdish populations. There is also emerging evidence that ISIS territories of any individual when there was The alarming human rights situation in is in control of advanced weapons systems. credible information that the person was seek Iraq will also likely receive attention, with a In early October, ISIS used shoulder fired ing to participate in terrorist acts. (For more briefing by the UN High Commissioner for missiles to shoot down an Iraqi military heli information, please see the Counter terrorism Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein. copter. On 24 October, Iraqi o cials accused brief in this Monthly Forecast .) The Secretary General’s reports on the UN ISIS of using chlorine gas in an attack against US airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) and on security forces and Shi’a militias. The US began on 8 August. Iraq had requested the Iraq’s compliance with resolution 1284 regard said it was investigating the incident. international community to support the ing the repatriation or return of Kuwaiti miss When the Council was last briefed on Iraq, e ort to eradicate ISIS on 25 June, and since ing persons or property will also be presented. on 23 July, ISIS had just seized north western then some 60 countries have agreed to back UNAMI’s mandate expires on 31 July 2015. Iraq, and Mladenov highlighted that minori the US led action against ISIS in military, ties were under attack as a result. Coun humanitarian and support capacities. On 19 Key Recent Developments cil members issued three press statements September, the Council adopted a presiden The crisis in Iraq has sparked a humanitar between 21 July and 7 August, expressing tial statement urging the international com ian and protection crisis. As a result of armed deep concern over reports of threats against munity to strengthen and expand support for conflict or terrorist acts, 7,700 civilians have religious and ethnic minorities in ISIS con Iraq as it fights ISIS. been killed and 12,300 injured in 2014. Since trolled parts of Iraq. Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, whose January, 1.8 million Iraqis have been displaced, Mladenov also reported that ISIS had tak leadership was characterised by power con and humanitarian access to 650,000 displaced en control of oil fields and pipelines, increas solidation and stoking of sectarian tension, persons has been restricted in areas controlled ing its access to financial resources, and on 28 resigned on 14 August after losing support by ISIS and associated armed groups. July, the Council adopted a presidential state from his Shi’a base and international backers, An already dire security situation in Iraq ment prohibiting illicit oil trade as a source of the US and Iran. Haider al Abadi succeed reached crisis levels with ISIS’s surprise take revenue for terrorists. In a further attempt to ed him with a mandate to form an inclusive over of Mosul on 10 June. Since then, Iraq cut o funding to ISIS, the Council adopt government to unify Iraq’s Shi’a, Sunni and has focused on securing Baghdad and the ed resolution 2170 on 15 August, listing six Kurdish citizens. However, there are several
81'2&80(17621,5$4 Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2178 6HSWHPEHU REOLJDWHGPHPEHUVWDWHVWRUHVSRQGWRWKHWKUHDWRIIRUHLJQWHUURULVWƃJKWHUV S/RES/2170 $XJXVW FRQGHPQHGWKHUHFUXLWPHQWE\,6,6RIIRUHLJQƃJKWHUVDQGOLVWHGVL[LQGLYLGXDOVXQGHUWKH$O4DLGDVDQFWLRQVUHJLPH S/RES/2169 -XO\ H[WHQGHG81$0, until 31 July 2015. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2014/20 6HSWHPEHU ZHOFRPHGWKHQHZ,UDTLJRYHUQPHQWDQGXUJHGLQWHUQDWLRQDOVXSSRUWIRU,UDTŠVƃJKW against ISIS. S/PRST/2014/14 (28 July 2014) prohibited illicit oil trade as a source of revenue for terrorists in Iraq and Syria. Security Council Press Statements SC/11605 (17 October 2014) condemned ISIS attacks in Baghdad. SC/11519 (13 August 2014) welcomed the nomination of Prime Minister-designate Haider al-Abadi. SC/11515 (7 August 2014), SC/11509 (5 August 2014) and SC/11484 (21 July 2014) deplored ISIS attacks and condemned the persecution of religious and ethnic minorities. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7271 (19 September 2014) was a ministerial-level debate on the ISIS threat. S/PV.7224 -XO\ ZDVDEULHƃQJE\0ODGHQRY Security Council Letter S/2014/440 (25 June 2014) was from Iraq requesting support to eradicate ISIS. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2014/485 (11 July 2014) was the most recent UNAMI report. S/2014/480 (8 July 2014) was the most recent Iraq/Kuwait report. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/RES/S-22/1 (1 September 2014) requested a mission be urgently dispatched to investigate ISIS violations.
Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Iraq (con’t)
indications that a new government may not and associated armed groups, including attacks support the government in that e ort. be su cient to rein in the sectarian violence. GLUHFWO\WDUJHWLQJFLYLOLDQVH[HFXWLRQVDEGXFWLRQV In such a statement, the Council could Government bombardment of Sunni civilian VH[XDOYLROHQFHVH[XDOVODYHU\DQGRWKHUIRUPVRI also condemn human rights violations by violence perpetrated against women and children, areas continues, as does unchecked activity forced recruitment of children, destruction or des - ISIS and associated armed groups (an indi by Shi’a militias. HFUDWLRQ RI SODFHV RI UHOLJLRXV RU FXOWXUDO VLJQLƃ - rect reference to former Baathists and Sun Abadi’s cabinet was formed on 8 Septem cance and denial of fundamental freedoms. The ni tribal leaders) as well as by Iraqi security ber but with two crucial security posts, the UHSRUWDOVRH[SUHVVHGDODUPDWWKHULVHLQ,UDTŠV forces and associated armed groups (an indi defence and interior ministries, unfilled, large use of the death penalty since it was restored in rect reference to Shi’a militias). 2005, with judges systematically issuing death ly due to the opposition of parliamentarians sentences based solely on disputed evidence (i.e. Another, though less likely option, is for aligned with Shi’a militias—in particular the confessions resulting from torture) and testimony the Council to support OHCHR’s call for the Badr Organisation. The Badr Organisation, of secret informants. Iraqi government to accede to the ICC and to which is backed by Tehran, has played a key On 16 October, the High Commissioner immediately accept its ad hoc jurisdiction for role in helping to secure Baghdad from ISIS. referred to ISIS as a potentially genocidal move - crimes committed during the ongoing conflict. ment and the antithesis of human rights. He add- However, its militia is suspected of having run ed no religious or ethnic group is safe and warned death squads against Sunni opponents since of ISIS’s use of social media to recruit people Council Dynamics the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. from across the globe. Council members uniformly support Iraqi parliamentarians were only able to UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human UNAMI’s mandate, which they believe is agree on defence and interior ministry can 5LJKWV ,YDQ ĢLPRQRYLÉ FRQFOXGHG D ZHHNORQJ broad enough and flexible enough to allow didates on 18 October. Khaled al Obeidi, a PLVVLRQWR,UDTRQ 2FWREHU+HYRLFHGH[WUHPH Mladenov to fulfil the mission’s good o ces concern at the widespread and systematic human Sunni leader from Mosul, was approved rights violations by ISIS and associated armed role. as minister of defence. Mohammed Ghab groups and said that those committed against There has been a flurry of activity in response ban, from the Badr Organisation, was con the Yezidi community may amount to attempted to the spread of ISIS since Mladenov last firmed for the interior ministry, though media genocide. He also urged the Iraqi government briefed. Nevertheless, Council members have to accede to the ICC statute and to immediately reports indicate that Hadi al Amiri, the head quickly reverted to a “wait and see” mode accept its ad-hoc jurisdiction for crimes commit - of Badr’s militia, will likely wield the real pow WHGGXULQJWKHRQJRLQJFRQƄLFW and, except through the lens of counter ter er. Sunnis opposed putting the Badr bloc in rorism, have largely been unable to approach charge of internal Iraqi security. The appoint Key Issues the connected crises in Iraq and Syria holis ment undermines Abadi’s mandate to form The key issue for the Council is averting the tically. It is likely that Council members will an inclusive government in order to boost territorial and political disintegration of Iraq, continue to treat the two situations as discrete Sunnis’ confidence in the central government. which would have major negative implica issues since condemning the Tehran backed Six Kurdish ministers were also confirmed tions for regional and international security. regime in Damascus cannot be reconciled on 18 October, three more than were initially Another immediate issue is how to address with supporting the Tehran and US backed o ered when Abadi’s cabinet was formed in the mutually destabilizing impact of the Syr government in Baghdad. early September. Ministerial appointees from ian civil war and the Iraq crisis—beyond the The Council’s revived engagement on the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) US led anti ISIS operations in both countries. Iraq has been almost exclusively ISIS related, did not participate in the cabinet until the A possibly more manageable issue is deter in that the Council has reinforced its counter KRG received a larger share of the ministries mining how the Council and UNAMI can terrorism framework and issued press state and the reinstatement of the KRG’s share encourage the factions in the newly formed ments condemning various ISIS attacks and of financial resources from the Iraqi bud government—in particular the dominant highlighting the group’s threat to ethnic and get, which Maliki had cut o when the KRG Shi’a Dawa party of Abadi and Maliki along religious minorities. began unilaterally selling its own oil, bypass with Kurdish and Sunni parliamentarians—to However, the Council has been less direct ing the central government. cooperate on security and humanitarian issues ly engaged in grappling with the underlying to build Sunni confidence in the central gov political divisions among Iraq’s Shi’a, Sunni Human Rights-Related Developments ernment and fortify Iraq’s response to ISIS. and Kurdish populations. For example, it has The Human Rights Council held a special ses- been di cult for Council members to formu sion on 1 September at the request of Iraq and Options late a response to the government formation adopted a resolution condemning ISIS and asso - ciated groups that had violated human rights Aside from following the situation in Iraq process beyond the routine and general call and international humanitarian law. Since some through briefings, Council options seem for an inclusive government. of their actions may amount to war crimes and limited since the security response to ISIS Some Council members are concerned crimes against humanity, the resolution requested is happening outside the Council’s purview. that a display of support now might be misin an investigative mission be urgently dispatched. However, one option is to adopt a presiden terpreted as endorsement of the Badr Organ 2Q2FWREHU81$0,DQGWKH2ƅFHRIWKH81 High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) tial statement calling for the new govern isation. Yet tempering any support with an released a joint report documenting serious ment to work towards enhanced security expression of concern about the activities of violations of international humanitarian law and and humanitarian coordination with the the Badr militia or violations by Iraqi security gross abuses of human rights perpetrated by ISIS KRG and Sunni leaders and for UNAMI to forces could prove di cult given the degree
6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Iraq (con’t) to which the US seeks Iraq’s agreement prior Jordan, the UK and the US are part of the in general, and the UK is the penholder on to Council outcomes on Iraq. anti ISIS coalition. Iraq Kuwait issues. Council members Australia, France, The US is the penholder on Iraq issues
Burundi
Expected Council Action Léonce Ngendakumana, the head of the oppo precluded from running within a recognised In November, the Special Representative and sition coalition Alliance des Démocrates pour le political party still wish to participate in the head of the UN O ce in Burundi (BNUB), Changement Ikibiri (ADC Ikibiri), to one year election, they can do so as independent can Parfait Onanga Anyanga, will brief the Coun in prison for incitement to racial hatred and didates. All candidates, including those rec cil. Paul Seger (Switzerland), the chair of the making damaging allegations and false accusa ognised by the government are furthermore Burundi configuration of the Peacebuilding tions. Ngendakumana had on 6 February sent hampered by strict campaigning timeframes. Commission, will also brief. a letter to the UN Secretary General on behalf In security related news, an unidentified In line with Burundi’s wishes, the Coun of ADC Ikibiri calling on the international armed group on 5 October attacked positions cil adopted resolution 2137 on 13 February, community to exert pressure on the govern of the Burundian army in the Rukoko Natural extending the mandate of BNUB for the last ment to, among other things, forestall “political Reserve in Bubanza Province, near the coun time until 31 December. genocide”. He accused the ruling party, Conseil try’s border with the Democratic Republic of National Pour la Défense de la Démocratie–Forces the Congo (DRC). The Forces pour la Libéra Key Recent Developments pour la Défense de la Démocratie (CNDD FDD), tion Nationale ’s Nzabampema wing reportedly While BNUB is preparing for its withdrawal, of preparations similar to those that took place claimed responsibility for the attack, in which Burundi continues to experience political in neighbouring Rwanda before the 1994 it said six soldiers were killed. An army spokes turmoil ahead of the legislative and presi genocide. He also compared the operations person said that one of the attackers was killed dential elections scheduled for May and June of radio station Rema FM to Kigali’s Radio and attributed the incident to “armed bandits”. 2015, respectively. (In resolution 2137, the Mille Collines, which in 1994 encouraged and In recent weeks, both the DRC government Council asked the Secretary General to pre incited violence against the Tutsi. His lawyers and the UN Stabilisation Mission in the DRC pare for BNUB’s transfer of responsibilities denounced the trial as politically motivated have confirmed the presence of Burundian to the UN Country Team by 31 December. and filed an appeal. Ngendakumana has been troops in the Uvira region of the DRC, in order As requested by Burundi, the resolution calls quoted as saying that “all credible opponents to secure the common border. on the Secretary General to establish an elec are either in exile, have been prosecuted or Forty corpses were discovered in July and toral observer mission for the period before, have been driven out from their parties”. August, some reportedly bound and wrapped during and after the 2015 elections.) Another opposition leader, Alexis Sin in plastic bags, on the Burundian side of In the latest BNUB briefing on 6 August, duhije, head of the Movement for Solidarity Lake Rweru, which straddles Burundi and Onanga Anyanga expressed his continu and Development (MSD), is now believed Rwanda. The general prosecutor of Burun ing concern about deep political divisions to be in Europe after fleeing because of an di said on 14 October that an investigation in the country, the lack of political dialogue arrest warrant in connection with a sporting concluded that the dead were Rwandans, but on major national issues and laws restricting event on 8 March that turned violent, after Rwanda refuted that. freedom of expression. He called on opposi the police alleged it was a front for illegal tion parties to resist the temptation to boycott demonstrations. Some of the participants Developments in the PBC the elections, as many did in 2010. He added sought refuge in the o ces of the MSD Seger organised a high-level meeting for Burundi and its key bilateral and multilateral partners on that preparations were underway to withdraw headquarters, taking two policemen hostage. 6HSWHPEHULQ1HZ 81'2&80(17621%8581', Security Council Resolution S/RES/2137 )HEUXDU\ H[WHQGHGWKHPDQGDWHRI%18%XQWLO'HFHPEHUZKHQLWZLOOWUDQVLWLRQWRD81 country team. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/550 (31 July 2014) was the latest BNUB report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7236 $XJXVW ZDVDEULHƃQJE\ Special Representative Parfait Onanga-Anyanga on BNUB. Security Council Press Statement SC/11350 $SULO H[SUHVVHGFRQFHUQRYHUUHSRUWHGDFWVRILQWLPLGDWLRQKDUDVV - ment and violence committed by youth groups in Burundi. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Burundi (con’t) ĢLPRQRYLÉUHSUHVHQWHGWKH81 with endangering state security and inciting presidential statement that would: The meeting’s aim was to review recent devel - public disobedience for his remarks on the radio call on Burundi to ensure an open and inclu opments in Burundi and preparations for a round- about allegations that members of the Imboner - sive political environment; table between Burundi and its partners, sched- akure (the CNDD-FDD youth wing) were being uled tentatively for 11-12 December in Bujumbura. armed by the government and receiving military • convey readiness to consider extending The objectives of the upcoming roundtable are to training in the DRC. The European Parliament on BNUB’s mandate until after the election take stock of the progress made and challenges 18 September urged the Burundian government if the situation continues to deteriorate; remaining in the implementation of the second to immediately and unconditionally release Mbon - • signal a possibility of imposing measures Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper; review political impa and on 23 September, US President Barack such as sanctions against perpetrators or reforms and pledges made by donors; assess the Obama publicly called for Mbonimpa’s release. partnership between Burundi and the internation - instigators of political violence during the al community, particularly in light of the drawdown electoral period; or of BNUB; and, on the assumption that the 2015 Key Issues • call on sub regional organisations such as elections will be peaceful, open, inclusive and The key issue is ensuring that, despite the the International Conference of the Great fair, discuss a reinforced cooperation framework upcoming withdrawal of BNUB, the secu Lakes Region to play a more active role in between Burundi and its partners in the medium rity and political situation in Burundi does Burundi in light of BNUB’s withdrawal. and long term. The outcome of the roundtable would be a joint declaration of renewed and rede - not deteriorate further given the history of ƃQHG PXWXDO FRPPLWPHQWV LQ OLJKW RI SURJUHVV ethnic violence between the Hutu and Tutsi Council Dynamics achieved and remaining challenges. ethnic groups. Some Council members, such as France Should the political situation take a signifi and the US, remain concerned about the Human Rights-Related Developments cant turn for the worse, an issue for the Coun political tensions and the curbing of politi On 9 October, the Human Rights Committee of the cil will be how to act quickly and e ectively cal opposition by Burundi’s government, as International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights in order to preserve the progress achieved these may be the first signs of what could completed its consideration of the second periodic report of Burundi—the previous report was sub - over the past decade and prevent the situa be a relapse into the horrendous ethnic and mitted in 1992. During the discussions, committee tion from developing into an acute crisis. political violence that plagued the country in H[SHUWVUDLVHGVHYHUDORXWVWDQGLQJLVVXHVLQFOXGLQJ An immediate issue is setting up the prop the past. Several Council members believe WKHFULPLQDOLVDWLRQRIKRPRVH[XDOLW\ H[WUDMXGLFLDO er mechanisms for the UN electoral mission that the Council should monitor the situation killings, particularly perpetrated by actors responsi - and ensuring that the 2015 elections are free closely in the lead up to the 2015 elections ble for law enforcement and the government-linked \RXWK ZLQJ WUDƅFNLQJ YLROHQFH DJDLQVW ZRPHQ and fair. and beyond via the electoral mission, there is, and prison overcrowding. (CCPR/C/BDI/2) however, at this point, little appetite among Pierre Claver Mbonimpa, head of the Asso - Options Council members to take strong measures to ciation for the Protection of Human Rights and One option for the Council, to signal its address the situation. Detained Persons, was provisionally released continuing engagement with and concern The penholder on Burundi is France. from detention on medical grounds on 29 Sep - tember. He was arrested on 15 May and charged about Burundi, is adopting a resolution or a Liberia Expected Council Action capital city Monrovia where 305 new cases As requested in resolution 2176, the Council Key Recent Developments have been reported within the most recent is scheduled to be briefed prior to 15 Novem The Ebola crisis continues to worsen in West one week period. ber on the situation in Liberia, particularly Africa. According to the World Health Orga Meanwhile, the political and security situ regarding the Ebola crisis and the UN Mis nization (WHO), as of 25 October there were ation in Liberia is becoming increasingly sion in Liberia (UNMIL). The briefers are a total of 10,114 cases and 4,912 deaths due volatile. On 17 September, the inspector likely to include Under Secretary General to Ebola within the region. Liberia has been general for police denied local media reports for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous the worst a ected country, with 4,665 cas that Vice President Joseph Boakai was under and Ambassador Mårten Grunditz (Swe es and 2,705 deaths (Sierra Leone has had investigation in connection with an alleged den), chair of the Liberia configuration of 3,896 cases and 1,281 deaths; Guinea has plot to form an interim government. On 27 the Peacebuilding Commission. The briefing had 1,553 cases and 926 deaths). The rate September, a group of approximately 1,000 will be followed by consultations. of transmission has been most intense in the people violently protested after discovering a 81'2&80(17621/,%(5,$ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2177 (18 September 2014) determined that Ebola constituted a threat to international peace and security. S/RES/2176 6HSWHPEHU H[WHQGHGWKHPDQGDWHRI810,/XQWLO'HFHPEHU Security Council Meetings S/PV.7279 2FWREHU ZDVDEULHƃQJFRQFHUQLQJWKH Ebola crisis in West Africa. S/PV.7268 (18 September 2014) was an open debate on the Ebola crisis in West Africa. S/PV.7260 6HSWHPEHU ZDVDEULHƃQJRQ810,/ Security Council Letters S/2014/707 (29 September 2014) was an assessment of the Liberia sanctions regime. S/2014/679 (17 September 2014) was from the Secretary-General regarding his intention to establish UNMEER. *HQHUDO$VVHPEO\'RFXPHQW A/RES/69/1 (19 September 2014) welcomed the intention of the Secretary-General to establish UNMEER. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/PRST/27/4 (26 September 2014) urged states to respect human rights when implementing measures to combat Ebola. 8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Liberia (con’t) body they believed had been shot at a Mon information and outreach; training of Liberian for Political A airs Tayé Brook Zerihoun rovia checkpoint of the Liberia National government workers; monitoring and advo briefed. Banbury emphasised the urgent Police. On 6 October, Minister of Justice cacy; providing equipment, logistics assistance need for substantial human, material and Christiana Tah announced her resignation, and engineering support; and supporting the financial resources to combat Ebola; Lad saying that her position had been repeatedly UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response sous discussed the escalating security risks undermined. She said that included inter (UNMEER). associated with deepening political and social ference by President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf The severity of the Ebola crisis in West Afri divisions in Liberia; and Zerihoun focused on regarding an investigation into corruption ca has prompted the creation of the first UN the regional dimensions of Ebola’s impact, allegations within the National Security emergency health mission. On 17 Septem including the adverse implications for cross Agency, which is headed by one of Sirleaf’s ber, the Secretary General sent letters to the border cooperation on security and trade. sons. On 8 October, Sirleaf suspended by General Assembly and the Security Council Representatives of Guinea Conakry, Liberia proclamation Senate elections scheduled for announcing his intention to establish a sys and Sierra Leone also addressed the Council. 14 October. On 10 October, the House of tem wide, inter agency mission, UNMEER. Representatives declined a request by Presi At the initiative of the US, the Council held an Human Rights-Related Developments dent Sirleaf to further restrict political and open debate on the Ebola crisis on 18 Septem During its 27th session, the Human Rights Council adopted a presidential statement on 26 Septem - civil rights—e.g. electoral rights, freedom of ber and adopted resolution 2177, which deter ber deploring the loss of life in West Africa due to movement and freedom of speech—under mined that “the unprecedented extent of the Ebola and urging states to be mindful of human the state of emergency. Sirleaf’s suspension Ebola outbreak in Africa constitutes a threat ULJKWV DQG WKH QHJDWLYH HƂHFWV RI VWLJPDWL]LQJ of the elections was contested on 13 Octo to international peace and security”. The fol victims when implementing measures to limit the ber by the House and Senate, which main lowing day, the General Assembly adopted spread of the virus. On 16 October, High Commissioner for Human tained that such a decision was a legislative, a resolution welcoming the establishment of Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein referred to Ebola not executive, prerogative. A definitive date UNMEER. On 23 September, Anthony Ban as a monumental crisis, adding that the critical for holding the postponed elections has not bury was appointed Special Representative importance of rights to health, education, sanita - yet been agreed upon. and head of UNMEER, which is now head tion, development and good governance were not Due to the operational uncertainty cre quartered in Ghana. As of 28 October, the EHLQJGLVFXVVHGVXƅFLHQWO\$OVRKHDQQRXQFHG ated by the escalation of the Ebola outbreak, Ebola Response Multi Partner Trust Fund WKDWKLVRƅFHLVGUDZLQJXSJXLGHOLQHVUHJDUGLQJ the use of quarantines, which if imposed injudi - the Council e ectively postponed for three had only $8.8 million in deposits, $19 mil ciously could violate a wide range of human rights months decisions regarding the potential lion in commitments and $88.2 million in out and accelerate the spread of Ebola. modification of UNMIL’s mandate. Follow standing pledges (out of $1 billion required). 7KH:HVW$IULFD5HJLRQDO2ƅFHRIWKH+LJK ing a briefing and consultations on UNMIL In a speech at the Centers for Disease Commissioner for Human Rights released a paper on 9 September, the Council adopted res Control and Prevention on 16 September, in September, A human rights perspective into the Ebola outbreak , highlighting various fundamental olution 2176 on 15 September, renewing US President Barack Obama announced that human rights impacted by the outbreak and pro - the mandate of the peacekeeping operation the US would commit substantial resources to viding recommendations. until 31 December. Resolution 2176 also combat the Ebola crisis in West Africa, includ expressed the Council’s intention to subse ing: deployment of up to 3,200 troops; a pub quently renew UNMIL’s mandate until 30 lic commitment to spend more than $1 billion; Key Issues September 2015, pending consideration of deployment of more than 170 medical and The principal issue for the Council remains the Secretary General’s update and analysis disaster response experts; and the construction the continued stability of Liberia. The gov in the upcoming mid November briefing. of a hospital for infected health workers, which ernment’s inadequate response to the Ebola In the interim, two UNMIL sta members is underway, and plans to build 17 Ebola treat crisis thus far has further exacerbated public have died from Ebola, the first on 25 Septem ment units in Liberia. Ambassador Samantha perceptions of illegitimacy and threatened to ber and the second on 13 October. On 10 Power underscored the US commitment to provoke protest. The national police and mili October, UNMIL announced it had quaran tackle the Ebola outbreak with a trip to West tary lack capacity, which underlines the con tined 41 personnel, including 20 soldiers, fol Africa in late October, where she visited Gha tinued importance of UNMIL’s deployment lowing the second infection. As of 28 October, na, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Power within the country. Coping with the health all but two sta had completed the quaran called on other UN member states, in addition risks Ebola poses for peacekeepers while also tine period. (The Philippines has been the one to the US and the UK (which has been active maintaining su cient operational mobility in troop contributing country [TCC] to with in Sierra Leone), to contribute doctors, medi order to fulfil its mandate remains a critical draw from UNMIL, having announced on 23 cal supplies and financial resources to fight challenge for UNMIL. August that due to safety concerns their 115 Ebola in West Africa. Power has also praised troops would depart Liberia as soon as possi Cuba’s sending doctors to the a ected region. Options ble.) According to information provided to the The Council most recently addressed the The most likely option for November is for Council by the Department of Peacekeeping Ebola crisis in West Africa during a briefing the Council to take no action, as it is high Operations, UNMIL’s activities in response and consultations on 14 October. Banbury, ly unlikely to modify UNMIL’s mandate to the Ebola outbreak include: coordination, Ladsous and Assistant Secretary General until the following month (the peacekeeping Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Liberia (con’t) operation’s mandate expires 31 December). number of 134 co sponsors for resolution peacekeepers. There seems to be consensus While the meeting has been scheduled explic 2177 on Ebola, the establishment of the among Council members, the Department of itly for the purpose of an update on UNMIL, first UN emergency health mission and the Peacekeeping Operations and the Liberian gov the Council could also request participation unanimous adoption of the General Assem ernment regarding the need for UNMIL’s con by a wider range of briefers, including repre bly resolution on UNMEER all suggest there tinued deployment. Nonetheless, there is also sentatives of UNMEER and WHO. is now broad support among member states a possibility that some TCCs may eventually for tackling the Ebola outbreak, although lag withdraw due to the health risks to their peace Council and Wider Dynamics ging deposits to the trust fund raise questions keepers. This could also be due, at least in part, Among Council members, the US has shown about the depth of this commitment. to domestic political pressure on the govern the most initiative in response to the Ebola However, the evolving dynamics with TCCs for ments of TCCs for the repatriation of troops. crisis in West Africa. (It has also made the UNMIL may be more complicated, particu The US is the penholder on Liberia, and most significant national commitment of larly with a precedent having been established Jordan is the chair of the 1521 Liberia Sanc resources on the ground in Liberia.) A record by the withdrawal from Liberia of 115 Filipino tions Committee. South Sudan Expected Council Action of intermittent fighting between the SPLM negotiations in Ethiopia concluded on 5 The Council is expected to renew the man and the SPLM in Opposition. Recurring October. The form of the proposed transition date of the UN Mission in South Sudan SPLM in Opposition attacks on government al government of national unity and the roles (UNMISS) prior to its 30 November expira forces occurred in September in Renk county, and responsibilities of participants in such a tion. Given the fluid situation on the ground, Upper Nile state, near the Paloich oil field, government were among the key issues dis it is possible that the Council may hold one which remains under the control of govern cussed. While President Salva Kiir and rebel or more additional meetings to discuss South ment forces. On 10 October, government leader Riek Machar agreed to form a transi Sudan during the month. and opposition forces clashed at Doleib Hill tional government of national unity in their 9 and Obel, areas just south of Malakal, the May cessation of hostilities agreement, both Key Recent Developments capital of Upper Nile state. After the opposi leaders have yet to make the compromises The political, security and humanitarian situ tion seized Doleib Hill, government forces necessary for this to happen. ations in South Sudan remain dire. The peace reclaimed the area, pushing the rebels back A parallel negotiating track has opened talks between t1he government—the Sudan to northern Jonglei state. up in Arusha, Tanzania, where an intra People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)—and More than 100,000 civilians are housed SPLM dialogue was held from 12 to 18 the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in in UNMISS “protection of civilians sites” October. Facilitated by Tanzania’s ruling Opposition (SPLM in Opposition) have con because they are too afraid to return home and Chama Cha Mapinduzi party, the negotia tinued to falter, and sporadic fighting between possibly face violence. The bulk of these IDPs tions included representatives of the SPLM, the sides has been reported in recent weeks are in Bentiu (49,000 people), Juba (20,000) SPLM in Opposition and SPLM former in Upper Nile state. Absent a political solu and Malakal (18,000). UNMISS has made an detainees (high level SPLM o cials who tion to the conflict, analysts fear that fighting e ort to expand the camps to accommodate were detained by the government but subse will increase in the coming months with the the influx of civilians and to enhance secu quently released). Kiir met with Machar dur enhanced mobility that accompanies the dry rity in and around these sites. On 21 October, ing the Arusha talks, although details on the season which begins in November. As of 16 Derk Segaar, head of relief, reintegration and substance of their meeting are scant. On 20 October, there were 1.4 million internally dis protection in the UN Resident Coordinator’s October, the various SPLM factions signed placed persons (IDPs) in South Sudan, while O ce in South Sudan, announced that new a framework agreement committing to intra approximately 467,000 people had left for sur facilities had been built in Juba, Malakal and party democracy, reconciliation and healing. rounding countries. Additionally, roughly four Bor to accommodate approximately 28,000 of In an accompanying communiqué, the par million people in the country face serious food the displaced and to address the overcrowding ties acknowledged “a collective responsibility insecurity. Since the conflict began in Decem and unsanitary conditions in the camps. (It for the crisis in South Sudan” and said the ber 2013, thousands have died, and both the should be noted that the civilians in these sites crisis “must be urgently brought to an end by SPLM and the SPLM in Opposition have represent a small fraction of those displaced the SPLM leadership through genuine and been accused of significant violations of inter throughout South Sudan). honest dialogue”. The communiqué went on national humanitarian and human rights law. The sixth round of the Intergovernmental to say that while the Arusha process is intend In recent months, there have been reports Authority on Development (IGAD) mediated ed to reinforce the IGAD facilitated process 81'2&80(176216287+68'$1 Security Council Resolution S/RES/2155 (27 May 2014) revised the mandate of UNMISS to focus on protection of civilians, facilitation of humani- WDULDQDFFHVVDQGKXPDQULJKWVYHULƃFDWLRQDQGPRQLWRULQJ Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7282 2FWREHU ZDVDEULHƃQJE\6SHFLDO5HSUHVHQWDWLYH(OOHQ0DUJUHWKH Løj on UNMISS. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/708 (30 September 2014) was the UNMISS report. 10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 South Sudan (con’t) in Ethiopia, it is distinct from it. It further of chronic insecurity, unimaginable living reconciliation and accountability for human noted the parties’ commitment to meet again conditions, acute day to day protection con rights violations in South Sudan. within two weeks for further talks. cerns and rampant sexual violence”. She add On 23 October, Kiir, President Uhuru ed that both sides in the conflict have commit Options Kenyatta of Kenya, Prime Minister Hailemar ted sexual violence, with interlocutors on her The most likely option is for the Council to iam Desalegn of Ethiopia and Prime Minister trip describing rape, gang rape, forced mar renew UNMISS, maintaining a streamlined Ruhankana Rugunda of Uganda met in Juba riage, sexual slavery and abduction as among mandate focusing on protection of civil for a one day IGAD summit. During the the crimes committed. ians, facilitation of humanitarian access and summit, Kiir reiterated his claim that he is On 22 October, Ellen Margrethe Løj, the human rights monitoring. committed to the peace process. In remarks Special Representative and head of UNMISS, In renewing the mandate, the Council to the press after the summit, IGAD’s chief briefed the Council on the situation in South may decide to: mediator, Seyoum Mesfin, expressed opti Sudan and the current UNMISS report. Ban • implement targeted sanctions (i.e. an mism that the SPLM and the SPLM in gura briefed as well, participating via video assets freeze and travel ban) on spoilers Opposition had achieved “a breakthrough” in teleconference from Geneva. Løj said that to the peace process who have committed their negotiations, but he did not elaborate. since she had assumed her post, she had gross violations of international human At press time, it seemed that power sharing been “shocked by the complete disregard for rights and humanitarian law; in the proposed transitional government of human life” in the conflict, emphasising that • impose an arms embargo on the country; national unity remained a key sticking point the perpetrators of human rights violations • refer the situation in South Sudan to the between the parties. must be held accountable. Bangura reiterated ICC; The South Sudan parliament on 8 Octo many of the points from her 20 October press • urge troop and police contributing ber approved the National Security Bill that, briefing, arguing that sexual violence in South countries to expedite the deployment of if enacted into law, would give security forces Sudan is widespread and that the government remaining authorised personnel, with sup wide ranging authority to detain and arrest lacks the capacity to address the challenge. porting equipment, to help the mission people without safeguards of due process. Francis Deng, South Sudan’s ambassador to operate at full capacity; Legislators from the SPLM Democratic the UN, addressed the Council as well, urging • call for the use of community liaison Change (SPLM DC) vacated the parliament the Council to support capacity building with assistants to help UNMISS peacekeepers in protest during the vote. (The SPLM DC regard to South Sudan’s institutions, nota enhance dialogue with local communities is a political party that disagrees with Kiir’s bly the police and other related security ele and get timely information about poten policies but has remained engaged in the ments. In consultations following the briefing, tial threats, as has been done constructive political process.) At press time, Kiir had yet Løj emphasised her concern at the lack of ly in the UN Stabilisation Mission in the to sign the bill into law. progress on the political track, while Bangura Democratic Republic of the Congo; and Zainab Hawa Bangura, the Special Repre similarly said that the best way to curtail the • make a special request for donors to fulfil sentative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, vis sexual violence in South Sudan is to bring an the 2014 Crisis Response Plan for South ited South Sudan from 5 to 11 October. She end to the fighting. Sudan, which was funded at only 61.3 met with Kiir and several other high level percent at press time ($1.1 billion of $1.8 government o cials, civil society representa Key Issues billion requested). tives (including women’s groups), UN sta The underlying key issue continues to be the The Council could also decide to invite and survivors of sexual violence. Bangura also need to find a political solution to the cri Olusegan Obasanjo, the chair of the AU stopped in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where she sis. Without a durable settlement, the fight Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan, to met with SPLM in Opposition leader Riek ing will likely get worse—and the su ering brief on the Commission’s report. Machar. During the trip, Bangura signed a of civilians will increase—when the dry sea joint communiqué with the government out son begins creating conditions that facilitate Council Dynamics lining steps it can take to prevent and address enhanced movement. There is frustration among Council members sexual violence—including the “issuance and Another key issue is what role the Council, about the continuing inability of the parties enforcement of clear orders through the army in conjunction with the broader UN system to forge a political solution to the conflict. chain of command prohibiting sexual vio and other actors, can play in strengthening Likewise, there are concerns that the fight lence [and] assistance for survivors” and the the ability of UNMISS to protect civilians, ing may escalate, with even more devastating development of action plans by the army and facilitate humanitarian access and uphold attendant consequences for civilians, given police against sexual violence. human rights. the onset of the dry season. Several Council At a press briefing at UN headquarters in Also an important issue is how to members have emphasised that there needs New York on 20 October, Bangura said that in approach the issue of accountability for the to be accountability for the serious human her 30 years of experience she had never wit perpetrators of serious human rights viola rights violations committed in South Sudan, nessed anything like what she had seen at the tions. In this regard, the AU Commission but it is unclear what options the Council UN camp in Bentiu, where, in her words, “the of Inquiry is expected to release a report in might pursue at this point. Targeted sanc IDPs seeking refuge there face a combination November with recommendations for healing, tions against spoilers have been discussed Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 11 South Sudan (con’t) for several months as a possible option either approach. China and Russia, in par is unclear, and perhaps unlikely, whether a supported by several Council members. A ticular, have had reservations about targeted resolution on targeted sanctions or an arms potential arms embargo on South Sudan sanctions, especially without the support of embargo could be adopted at this time. also appears to be under discussion. How IGAD, which is divided on such an approach. The US is the penholder on South Sudan. ever, some Council members remain wary of Given these challenging political dynamics, it Sudan (Darfur) Expected Council Action A total of 61 UNAMID peacekeepers have Human Rights-Related Developments In November, Ambassador María Cristi been killed since the mission was deployed in During its 27th session, the Human Rights Council (HRC) considered the report of the independent na Perceval (Argentina), chair of the 1591 December 2007. H[SHUWRQKXPDQULJKWVLQ6XGDQ $+5& Sudan Sanctions Committee, is expected to The violence and insecurity in Darfur con The report describes legislation adopted to improve provide the Council with the quarterly brief tinues to worsen the humanitarian situation in human rights, but concludes that implementation ing on the Committee’s work. Darfur, with devastating results for the civil UHPDLQV SURWUDFWHG ZLWK QR VLJQLƃFDQW LPSURYH - ian population. As of 30 September, the UN ments since 2013. It addresses persisting human rights challenges, including human rights violations Key Recent Developments O ce for the Coordination of Humanitarian during the September 2013 demonstrations, the The security situation in Darfur remains A airs (OCHA) estimated that approximate Meriam Ibrahim apostasy case, arrests and deten - unstable, marked by inter communal violence ly 3.86 million people in the region required tions of political opponents and youth activists, the and fighting between government and rebel humanitarian assistance. OCHA has also curtailment of civil society, press censorship, the groups. In early October, the Rizeigat com reported that fighting has displaced more HVFDODWLRQRIDUPHGFRQƄLFWVWKHLQFUHDVHLQFLYLO- munity clashed with the Zaghawa community than 428,000 people thus far in 2014. ian displacement, humanitarian access problems and the government’s suspension of the ICRC. in Labado, East Darfur, during a cattle rus On 11 September, the ICC issued an On 26 September, the HRC adopted a resolu - tling dispute. Two internally displaced Zagha arrest warrant for Abdallah Banda, a Jus tion on technical assistance and capacity-building wa were killed; as retribution, the Zaghawa tice and Equality Movement rebel leader in Sudan (A/HRC/27/L.30/Rev.1). It renewed the killed two Rizeigat. Inter communal violence accused of war crimes for orchestrating the PDQGDWHRIWKHLQGHSHQGHQWH[SHUWIRURQH\HDU also occurred on 11 October between mem 29 September 2007 attack on a facility run and requested a report at the HRC’s 30th session. bers of the Rizeigat and Ma’aliya communi by the AU Mission in Darfur in Haskani ties in Abu Dangal, East Darfur, also in an ta, North Darfur. The attack resulted in the Key Issues apparent cattle rustling dispute, leading to deaths of 12 AU peacekeepers, and several The underlying key issue for the Council is the death of one person. Sudan armed forc others were wounded. how to best address the ongoing security and es reportedly clashed with Sudan Liberation Perceval last briefed the Council on the humanitarian catastrophe in Darfur. Army Abdul Wahid (SLA AW) rebels in West work of the Sanctions Committee on 27 A related issue is ensuring that the Coun ern Jebel Marra and Northern Jebel Marra in August. She said that systemic violations of cil does not lose its focus on the tragedy in mid October and in Rokero, Northern Jebel the arms embargo continued and noted that Darfur, amidst all of the other crises in Sudan Marra on 17 October. On 19 October, the member states needed to honour their obliga and South Sudan and elsewhere in the world. Sudanese Air Force bombed the Zaghawa tion to adhere to the sanctions regime. She Another key issue is what the Council can areas of Orschi and Ebeiha in North Darfur, also noted that there had been a recent reduc do to address violations of the arms embargo, resulting in the death of a farmer. A school in tion in the activities of the Rapid Support which have been consistently referenced in the Orschi was levelled in the attack, according to Force, a pro government militia accused of reports of the Panel of Experts over the years. Mohamed Ahmed Minawi, a local politician. committing atrocities in Darfur earlier in 2014. Another key issue is the safety and secu On 16 October, three Ethiopian peace A replacement for Mohammed Ibn rity of UNAMID personnel, especially in keepers with the AU/UN Hybrid Operation Chambas to serve as the Special Representa light of the ongoing attacks on UNAMID in Darfur (UNAMID) died after they were tive for Darfur and head of UNAMID has yet peacekeepers. ambushed and shot by unidentified assail to be appointed. Chambas was appointed the ants in Karma, North Darfur, while protect Special Representative and head of the UN Options ing a water pump that was used by internally O ce for West Africa on 12 September. He The Council may decide to listen to Percev displaced persons and students from a near had been in charge of UNAMID since 20 al’s briefing without taking action. by school. Council members issued a press December 2012. Alternatively, it could adopt a statement statement condemning the attack (SC/11603). or resolution that: 81'2&80(17621'$5)85 Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2173 (27 August 2014) renewed the mandate of UNAMID for 10 months. S/RES/1593 (31 March 2005) referred the situation in Darfur to the ICC. S/RES/1591 0DUFK HVWDEOLVKHGWKH 6XGDQ6DQFWLRQV&RPPLWWHHDQGLWV3DQHORI([SHUWV Security Council Press Statement SC/11603 (16 October 2014) condemned the killing of three UNAMID peacekeepers. Secretary General’s Report S/2014/515 (22 July 2014) was the Secretary-General’s report on Darfur. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2014/87 )HEUXDU\ ZDVWKHPRVWUHFHQWUHSRUWRIWKH3DQHORI([SHUWV 12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Sudan (Darfur) (con’t) • condemns violations of the arms embar continuing violence and humanitarian crisis example, Lithuania has held open briefings go and reminds states of their obligations in Darfur. There has also been a perception on the work of the sanctions committees that under resolution 1591; among some members that UNAMID could it chairs on the Central African Republic and • strengthens language obliging states sup be more e ective, especially given the resourc Yemen in recent months, while Chile briefed plying arms and related equipment to es that have been devoted to the mission. the Council on the work of the Côte d’Ivoire Sudan to obtain credible end user docu At press time, Argentina, as chair of the sanctions committee in an open session on mentation, ensuring that these materials 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee, was plan 29 October. (This represents a departure do not enter Darfur; and ning to hold November’s meeting on Sudan from the standard practice of holding coun • condemns aerial bombardments by Sudan sanctions in an open briefing, followed by try specific sanctions committee briefings in in civilian areas. consultations. This perhaps reflects a desire closed consultations.) to enhance the Council’s transparency, build The UK is the penholder on Darfur, and Council Dynamics ing on recent e orts by some of the sanctions the US is the penholder on Sudan/South There remain strong concerns about the committee chairs to hold open briefings. For Sudan issues. Somalia Expected Council Action two attacks by Somali pirates so far in 2014, institutions to prosecute pirates, economic In November, the Council is expected to adopt but neither was successful. It has been more development in coastal areas and a national a resolution renewing counter piracy measures than two years since the last commercial ship coastal and maritime security capacity. for Somalia, due to expire on 18 November. was hijacked by pirates o the coast of Soma October was a busy month in the Coun lia. Somali pirates are believed to still hold 37 cil for other Somalia related meetings. On Key Recent Developments hostages, but no vessels remain under their 14 October, the Special Representative and During the last month, Operation Indian control. Despite the decline in pirate attacks, head of the UN Assistance Mission in Soma Ocean, a joint Somali National Army (SNA) the US based NGO Oceans Beyond Piracy lia, Nicholas Kay, and the AU Special Repre and AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) mili estimates that Somali piracy had an economic sentative for Somalia and head of AMISOM, tary o ensive against Al Shabaab , has made cost of $3 to $3.2 billion in 2013, with approxi Maman Sidikou, briefed the Council via vid significant progress, while terrorist attacks mately one third incurred by governments and eo teleconference. On 15 October, Ambas in Mogadishu have also underscored a situ regional organisations deploying naval forces sador Oh Joon (Republic of Korea), chair ation of prevailing insecurity in Somalia. On and two thirds assumed by the private sector of the 751/1907 Somalia Eritrea Sanctions 5 October, SNA and AMISOM troops cap (i.e. security, labour, fuel and insurance). Committee, briefed Council members in tured the coastal city of Baraawe, a key Al On 22 October, Under Secretary Gener consultations about sanctions developments Shabaab stronghold that had been instrumen al for Political A airs Je rey Feltman briefed during the most recent 120 day period and tal as a port for the illicit export of charcoal the Council on the latest Secretary General’s the final reports of the Somalia and Eritrea and import of arms. On 12 October and 15 report on piracy and armed robbery o the Monitoring Group. Lastly, under “any other October, car bombs detonated outside restau coast of Somalia and other recent develop business” on 22 October, Emergency Relief rants in Mogadishu, killing numerous people ments. The report notes progress made in tar Coordinator Valerie Amos briefed Council in each instance. Al Shabaab is presumed to geting Somali pirate kingpins for arrest and members in consultations on the deteriorat have been responsible for the attacks. On 14 prosecution, particularly Mohomed Abdi Has ing humanitarian situation in Somalia. October the Federal Government of Somalia san, who was arrested in Brussels in October On 24 October, the Council adopted and the semi autonomous region of Puntland 2013, and Mohamed Garfanji, who was arrest resolution 2182 reauthorising AMISOM for signed an agreement regarding bilateral rela ed in Mogadishu in August 2014. The report one year. The resolution also included sev tions, political boundaries and security. also strongly condemned the 7 April killing eral sanctions related measures: authoris Regarding piracy, there has been a sharp of Clément Gorissen and Simon Davis, two ing naval deployments to interdict char decline in incidents o the coast of Somalia sta members of the UN O ce on Drugs and coal exports and arms imports violating the since the period from 2009 to 2011, when Crime (UNODC) who were investigating illic 751/1907 Somalia Eritrea sanctions regime, there was an average of 171 attacks and 39 it financial flows from piracy. The Secretary reauthorising the mandate of the Somalia ships pirated per year. There have been only General also emphasised the need for judicial and Eritrea Monitoring Group, reauthorising 81'2&80(17621620$/,$ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2182 (24 October 2014) authorised naval interdiction of illicit charcoal and illicit arms, renewed authorisation for AMISOM and renewed sanctions measures. S/RES/2125 (18 November 2013) renewed Somalia anti-piracy measures for one year. Security Council Meetings S/PV.7286 (24 October) ZDVWKHDGRSWLRQRIUHVROXWLRQZLWKH[SODQDWLRQVRIYRWHVE\-RUGDQDQG5XVVLDZKRDEVWDLQHG S/PV.7284 2FWREHU ZDVDEULHƃQJRQSLUDF\LQ6RPDOLD S/PV.7278 (14 2FWREHU ZDVDEULHƃQJRQ81620 Security Council Letter S/2014/760 (23 October 2014) was a letter from Egypt requesting postponement of the vote on resolution 2182. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/740 (16 October 2014) was a report of the Secretary-General on piracy in Somalia. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2014/727 (10 October ZDVWKHƃQDOUHSRUWRQ(ULWUHDRIWKH0RQLWRULQJ*URXS S/2014/726 2FWREHU ZDVWKHƃQDOUHSRUWRQ6RPDOLDRIWKH0RQLWRULQJ*URXS 86()8/$'',7,21$/5(6285&( The State of Maritime Piracy 2013 , Oceans Beyond Piracy, May 2014. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Somalia (con’t) the humanitarian exemption, and reauthoris economic opportunities in piracy a ected Council and Wider Dynamics ing a partial lifting of the arms embargo for areas, the resilience of support networks for There continues to be considerable support Somali government security forces. On 22 piracy and insu cient domestic institutions in the Council regarding counter piracy mea October and 23 October, Kuwait and Egypt, for prosecuting and imprisoning pirates. sures for Somalia. More than half of current representing the Gulf Cooperation Council Council members are represented through and the Arab Group respectively, transmit Options the CTF 151 of the Combined Maritime ted letters to the Council requesting (unsuc The most likely option for the Council would Forces (i.e. Australia and Republic of Korea), cessfully) a postponement of the vote on res be to renew for one year the counter piracy EU Naval Force Atalanta, NATO Operation olution 2182. The Arab Group specifically measures most recently reauthorised in reso Ocean Shield and national deployments (i.e., opposed authorisation for maritime interdic lution 2125. More specifically, the Council China and Russia). However, the interdiction tion beyond Somalia’s coastal waters and by could also consider: measures authorised with resolution 2182 for the naval forces of individual member states. • creating specialised anti piracy courts in charcoal exports and arms imports in viola Accompanied by Russia, Jordan abstained Somalia with substantial international tion of the 751/1907 Somalia Eritrea sanctions during the vote adopting resolution 2182. financial and technical support and par regime are more contentious. In explaining its ticipation (i.e. hybrid model); abstention, Jordan specifically mentioned three Key Issues • urging the financial support from mem issues: the authorisation to individual member The principal issue facing the Council in ber states for the Trust Fund to Support states, “reasonable grounds” as an insu cient November concerns the on going (albeit Initiatives of States Combatting Piracy o threshold, and the extension beyond Somalia’s reduced) danger of piracy in the Gulf of Aden, the Coast of Somalia; coastal waters. Russia (which abstained) and which potentially threatens to re emerge in the • reiterating its support for the work of the China (which voted in favour) also stated that absence of continued counter piracy measures. UNODC and requesting member states more attention should have been given to the Another issue concerns the sustainabil to contribute to the Maritime Crime Pro concerns of the Arab Group. ity of counter piracy naval deployments— gramme; and The UK is the penholder on Somalia, the currently estimated to cost approximately • requesting member states and regional US is the penholder on piracy, Russia is the $1 billion per year—and a relative lack of organisations to work with the Somali penholder on legal aspects of counter piracy financial resources dedicated to land based government toward creating a national measures and the Republic of Korea is the approaches to piracy prevention. Relevant maritime patrol capacity to deter piracy. chair of the 751/1907 Somalia Eritrea Sanc factors include a chronic lack of alternative tions Committee. Guinea-Bissau Expected Council Action of the armed forces, General Antonio Indjai, which the government will seek funding at In November, the Council is expected to who led the 12 April 2012 coup. On 17 Sep a planned donors’ conference in early 2015. extend the mandate of the UN Integrat tember, Vaz appointed Biahay Na N’tan as On the margins of the General Assem ed Peacebuilding O ce in Guinea Bissau his replacement. Like Indjai, he comes from bly, Guinea Bissau’s international partners (UNIOGBIS), which expires on 30 November. the country’s Balanta ethnic group. met on 26 September to discuss the report Prior to the mandate renewal, Special Rep The new Prime Minister, Domingos of the AU led assessment mission conduct resentative Miguel Trovoada, will brief the Simões Pereira, addressed the General ed from 15 to 18 September. In a communi Council along with the chair of the Peace Assembly on 29 September, outlining a three qué, they took note of the recommendation building Commission’s Guinea Bissau country phased set of reforms. An urgent programme to extend the Economic Community of West configuration, Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar to meet people’s immediate needs in educa African States (ECOWAS) Security Mission Patriota (Brazil). The Council will consider a tion and power and water supplies; ensure in Guinea Bissau (ECOMIB) beyond its 31 written update from the Secretary General on food security; pay civil servants’ overdue sala December mandate, urging partners to pro his comprehensive review of UNIOGBIS. ries; and provide basic health care, including vide ECOMIB necessary support. Among contingency planning to handle possible Ebo other points, they agreed to mobilise support Key Recent Developments la cases. Reforms in natural resource manage for the donors’ roundtable and to revitalise the Guinea Bissau’s recently elected president, ment are intended to ensure transparency and International Contact Group on Guinea Bis José Mário Vaz, issued a decree on 15 Sep accountability in the sector. He also noted a sau, which had stopped meeting in June 2012 tember dismissing the chief of general sta medium term development programme, for shortly after the coup due to disagreements 81'2&80(17621*8,1($Ǔ%,66$8 Security Council Resolution S/RES/2157 0D\ UHQHZHG81,2*%,6IRUDVL[PRQWKV Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/603 (18 $XJXVW ZDVWKHƃQDOUHSRUWRQWKHUHVWRUDWLRQRIFRQVWLWXWLRQDORUGHU Security Council Letters S/2014/601 (15 August 2014) and S/2014/600 $XJXVW ZDVDQH[FKDQJH of letters between the Security Council and the Secretary-General, agreeing that the August 2014 report on the restoration of constitutional order be the last and that future relevant developments be included in reports on UNIOGBIS. S/2014/529 (23 July 2014) and S/2014/528 -XO\ ZDVDQH[FKDQJHRIOHWWHUVEHWZHHQWKH6HFXULW\&RXQFLODQGWKH6HFUHWDU\ *HQHUDODJUHHLQJWRWKUHHPRQWKH[WHQVLRQWRUHSRUWRQWKHFRPSUHKHQVLYHUHYLHZRI81,2*%,6ŠVPDQGDWH 14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Guinea-Bissau (con’t) between ECOWAS and Community of Por ensure that UNIOGBIS’s mandate is aligned review of UNIOGBIS and the govern tuguese Language Countries (CPLP). The with the newly elected government’s priorities. ment’s priorities for UN support; or contact group, co chaired by ECOWAS and • renew the mandate of UNIOGBIS for 12 the CPLP, will coordinate international e orts. Developments in the PBC months to continue its focus on supporting Regarding the Ebola epidemic in neigh Patriota travelled to Guinea-Bissau from 28 to 30 inclusive political dialogue, security sector October. He attended a meeting of CPLP minis - bouring Guinea and nearby Sierra Leone and reform, justice and public administration WHUVLQWKHFRXQWU\DQGPHWZLWKVHYHUDORƅFLDOV Liberia, the government closed its borders RIWKHQHZJRYHUQPHQW,WZDV3DWULRWDŠVƃUVWWULS reforms and e orts to combat drug tra ck with Guinea on 19 August. In 14 October to the country since the elections. ing and other illicit activities, as well as pro consultations following the Council’s meet tecting human rights and fighting impunity. ing on the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, Assistant Secretary General for Political Key Issues Council and Wider Dynamics A airs Tayé Brook Zerihoun described prep Renewing the mandate of UNIOGBIS while Council members tend to be united in their arations taken by UNIOGBIS in case the dis ensuring it is aligned with the priorities of the approach to Guinea Bissau, following the ease appears in the country. government will be the key issue. lead of ECOWAS. However, for the renewal Council members last met on Guinea Another key issue is how the Council can of UNIOGBIS’s mandate last May, divisions Bissau on 26 August, when Under Secre best support the resumption and consolida emerged among members over the time period tary General for Political A airs Je rey Felt tion of constitutional order. Related to this for extending the mission. France, in particu man briefed on the Secretary General’s final is an update on civil military relations, prog lar, preferred a longer extension in line with report pursuant to resolution 2048 on the ress in security sector reform and the work the Secretary General’s recommendation of a restoration of constitutional order. During of ECOMIB. one year renewal, which the UN had recom consultations, Feltman said that civil military Guinea Bissau’s preparations and capac mended in order to provide time to conduct relations appeared to be moving in the right ity to deal with Ebola will likely be an impor the strategic review. The US, though, wanted a direction and that it was a positive sign that tant issue since an outbreak in the country three month renewal. The compromise was a the international community was reengaging could severely undermine recent positive six month extension until 30 November. How with Guinea Bissau. developments. ever, recommendations from the UN’s strate Trovoada arrived in the country on 21 Combating drug tra cking and the illegal gic review are not expected until January fol August to take up his o ce as Special Rep exploitation of natural resources, along with lowing the Council’s granting of a three month resentative. Two new deputy special repre addressing accountability for past political extension for the Secretary General’s report. sentatives to UNIOGBIS were also recently violence, are ongoing issues of concern. Thus another short term extension of the mis appointed: Maria do Valle Ribeiro of Ireland sion’s mandate may be necessary, which some on 13 August and Marco Carmignani of Bra Options members may not easily accept, anticipating zil on 8 May. The Council could: a year long renewal of UNIOGBIS this time. At press time, the UN was set to con • authorise a technical rollover of the mis CPLP states have proposed in recent duct a strategic review of UNIOGBIS from sion for three or four months in order to months that ECOMIB be transformed into 3 November to 14 November. This is the consider the Secretary General’s report a larger, UN mandated African led mission. comprehensive review of the mission that that is due by 30 January with recommen Nigeria, the major contributor to the Council called for in resolution 2157 to dations based on the UN’s comprehensive ECOMIB, is the penholder on Guinea Bissau. Libya Expected Council Action April 2015, respectively. status or a liation. (Pursuant to resolution In November, ICC Prosecutor Fatou Ben 1970, the O ce of the Prosecutor may exer souda the Council will deliver her semi annu Key Recent Developments cise its jurisdiction over international crimes al briefing by on recent developments con On 25 July, Bensouda expressed great concern committed within the territory of Libya since cerning cases in Libya. about recent reports of alleged attacks carried 15 February 2011.) The mandates of the UN Support Mis out against civilians in Tripoli and Benghazi Until recently, the investigations of the sion in Libya (UNSMIL) and the Panel of and said she will not hesitate to investigate O ce of the Prosecutor had focused on Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions and prosecute crimes under the ICC’s juris crimes committed during the 2011 revolu Committee expire on 13 March and 13 diction irrespective of the perpetrators’ o cial tion and had only started proceedings against 81'2&80(17621/,%<$ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2174 (27 August 2014) imposed sanctions on those obstructing or undermining the successful completion of the political transition. S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/653 (5 September 2014) was on UNSMIL. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7285 2FWREHU ZDVWKHƃIWKDQQXDORSHQGHEDWHRQZRUNLQJPHWKRGVDQGWKH,&&3URVHFXWRUEULHIHGS/PV.7173 (13 May 2014) was the seventh EULHƃQJE\WKH3URVHFXWRURIWKH,&&RQ/LE\D Security Council Press Statement SC/11585 (2 October 2014) welcomed the UN-facilitated meeting between members of the House of Representatives in Ghadames. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Libya (con’t) then high level Libyan o cials. Relations language in its referrals to counter the current High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid between Libya and the ICC have been tense ambiguity as to whether all states are obliged Ra’ad Al Hussein warned on 14 October that since the decision by the ICC to try Saif Al to cooperate and for the Council to support human rights defenders, political activists, blog - gers and media professionals have been under Islam Qaddafi, son of deposed leader Col. carrying out the arrest warrants issued by increasing attack from armed groups in Libya Muammar Qaddafi, in The Hague, as per the the Court. She also informed the Council since mid-May, with numerous reports of intimi - ICC referral in resolution 1970. In May, the how the lack of bilateral or UN financing for dation, harassment, abductions and murder of Appeals Chamber of the ICC upheld the deci Council referrals negatively impacts the abil members of civil society. In Benghazi on 19 Sep - sion of Pre trial Chamber I, which directed ity of her O ce to conduct investigations in tember, ten people were murdered on a single day, including two prominent young civil society activ - Libya to hand Qaddafi over to the Court. Brief both Darfur and Libya. ists. In Derna, east of Benghazi, lawyer Usama ing the Council on 13 May, Bensouda stated Clashes continue in Libya between Misra al-Mansuri was killed on 6 October, apparently that national judicial proceedings can never ta based and Islamist militias (Libya Dawn) after publicly criticising a declaration by armed be an excuse for failure to comply with the and Zintan based militias that supported the groups pledging allegiance to the Islamic State Chamber’s order. A decision from the Pre Tri 16 May failed coup by rogue General Khal of Iraq and al-Sham. The High Commissioner condemned these and other attacks, adding that al Chamber on a request for a finding of non ifa Haftar. Currently, the new Tobruk based female activists are particularly vulnerable, and compliance for the non surrender of Qaddafi House of Representatives (which is consid urged the Libyan authorities to investigate and is now expected. Such a finding might result ered the only legitimate legislative body by the hold those found responsible accountable. in the referral of the case back to the Security Security Council and most in the internation Council to ensure compliance by Libya. al community) is being challenged by the for In a 11 October 2013 decision, Pre Trial mer parliament, the General National Con Key Issues Chamber I concluded that the case against gress, which sits in Tripoli. Both parliaments A key issue for the Council is the disagree former intelligence chief Abdullah Al Senussi have appointed rival governments. Following ment between Libya and the ICC regarding was being investigated by Libya, thus making an agreement of military cooperation between the Qaddafi trial. A possible issue in the near it inadmissible before the ICC. The decision, the House of Representatives and Egypt, new future is the Council’s response if the ICC which had been challenged by Al Senussi’s airstrikes were reportedly conducted by Egypt refers the matter back to the Council, follow legal counsel, was upheld on 24 July by the in mid October against militia held positions ing Libya’s failure to cooperate with the Court. Appeals Chamber, bringing proceedings in Benghazi. While Tripoli remains under the An ongoing overarching issue is the con against Al Senussi before the Court to an end. control of Libya Dawn, fighting continues in tinuing conflict among militias and the fragile A trial of 37 Qaddafi era o cials accused the west and dozens were reported killed in security and political situation. of serious crimes during the 2011 revolu Benghazi in clashes and as part of a campaign tion—including Qaddafi testifying via video of targeted assassinations that has been ongo Options link as well as Al Senussi—has been ongo ing for months. In a 25 September meeting With respect to the ICC, receiving a briefing ing intermittently in Tripoli since 24 March about Libya on the margins of the UN Gen and taking no action seems the most likely and was postponed on 12 October until ear eral Assembly, French Foreign Minister Lau option, but the Council could use the oppor ly November. UNSMIL has raised concerns rent Fabius called for the listing of terrorist tunity to issue a presidential statement sig about di culties in ensuring full and fair group Ansar al Sharia under the 1267/1989 nalling its ongoing concern about the overall legal representation for all defendants. The Al Qaida sanctions regime. situation, including: UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention Special Representative and head of • expressing concern about attacks against characterised Qaddafi’s detention as arbitrary. UNSMIL, Bernardino León, facilitated two civilians in Libya that can amount to In her last briefing to the Council, the meetings of members of the House of Rep international crimes; Prosecutor noted that her O ce was collect resentatives in Ghadames and Tripoli on 29 • urging Libya to implement the provisions ing evidence against pro Qaddafi o cials September and 11 October (some had refused of the December 2013 law regarding tran outside of Libya. Bensouda also stated that to attend the meetings of the House). Secre sitional justice and the mandate of the fact the forced displacement of civilians from Taw tary General Ban Ki moon presided over the finding and reconciliation commission; ergha in the period from August 2011 to April latter meeting. Despite calls for a ceasefire, • reiterating its call for armed militias to dis 2014 appears to meet the elements of depor the security situation remains critical. arm and accept the authority of the state, tation or forcible transfer of the civilian popu including transferring Qaddafi to the cus lation as a crime against humanity and a war Human Rights-Related Developments tody of the state; $ MRLQW UHSRUW E\ 8160,/ DQG WKH 2ƅFH RI WKH crime under the Rome Statute. On 27 May, High Commissioner for Human Rights, released • urging the government and militias to Libya signed a Memorandum of Understand on 4 September, provides an overview of viola - ensure the protection of the estimated ing with the Registry of the Court recognising tions of international human rights and humani- 7,000 conflict related detainees being the privileges and immunities of Court sta tarian law in Tripoli and Benghazi, including indis- held without due process; and conducting investigations in Libya. criminate shelling and attacks on civilian targets, • reiterating its support for the ongoing ICC shelling of hospitals, abduction of civilians, tor - Briefing the Council on 23 October dur ture and unlawful killings. The report also details investigations into serious crimes commit ing a debate on working methods, Bensou accounts of civilian casualties, including women, ted by other former regime o cials and by da argued for the Council to use stronger children and foreign nationals. rebel forces during the revolution. 16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Libya (con’t) A further option for the Council is to Regarding the tension between Libya and central authority which is accountable to a impose measures under resolution 2174 the ICC over the trial of Qaddafi, it seems democratic and inclusive parliament”—con against armed militias and other spoilers that unlikely that the Council will take a strong stitutes a departure from previous statements threaten the peace, stability or security of Lib stance on this unless the ICC issues a finding by key international actors in Libya that had ya by significantly undermining state authority of non compliance. for the last five months avoided mentioning and its monopoly on the legitimate use of force. An 18 October joint statement by France, the Haftar by name. A similar attempt to do Germany, Italy, the UK and the US showed so in the Council encountered the opposi Council and Wider Dynamics these countries’ concerns about Haftar’s tion of Russia who claimed that naming and The overall deterioration of the security situ attacks in Benghazi. The statement —which shaming Haftar could have a negative impact ation and the fragility of the political situation emphasises the need to counter terrorism “by in the political process. are sources of concern for Council members. regular armed forces under the control of a The UK is the penholder on Libya. Syria Expected Council Action noted that another government objective is deliver safety and security and that a political In early November, Special Adviser Sigrid to weaken rebel groups before they receive solution in Syria was urgently needed. Kaag will brief on the destruction of Syr promised, yet elusive, equipment and train Special Envoy for Syria Sta an de Mis ia’s chemical weapons. Later in the month, ing from the US in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. tura briefed Council members on 30 October Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Ankara is part of the anti ISIS coalition on possible ways to revive the political pro A airs Valerie Amos will brief on the humani but has not allowed its Kurdish population to cess following his meetings with key players tarian situation in Syria. be armed and cross into Syria to help defend in Damascus, Amman, Ankara, Beirut, Cairo, The authorisation in resolution 2165 for Kobani, largely due its decades long struggle Moscow, Riyadh and Tehran. Since he took cross border and cross line humanitarian with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Turkey. up his post in September, he has been work access in Syria, including the monitoring But it has given permission for 200 Peshmerga ing around the “Assad knot” enshrined in mechanism expires in mid January 2015. forces from the autonomous Kurdish region the 30 June 2012 Geneva Communiqué— of Iraq and 1,300 Free Syrian Army fighters i.e. trying to find openings between Iran and Key Recent Developments to transit Turkey into Syria to defend Kobani. Russia’s support for the Assad regime and The civil war continues on its devastating On 19 October, the US air dropped material the position of the P3 and their Arab allies course, and the militarisation of the conflict supplied by Iraqi Kurdish authorities—weap that Assad must go. De Mistura is expected has escalated with the advent of US led air ons, ammunition and supplies—into Kobani. to return to Damascus in early November. strikes against the Islamic State of Iraq and In exchange for more direct military sup Assistant Secretary General for Humani al Sham (ISIS). The strikes have been par port against ISIS, Turkey has advocated for tarian A airs Kyung wha Kang also briefed ticularly focused around the Kurdish town of a bu er zone in Syria and widening the tar on 30 October and presented the Secretary Kobani in northern Syria to counter the ISIS gets to include the regime. These demands General’s report on the humanitarian situa o ensive to seize the town and consolidate its have strained relations between Washing tion in Syria. There are 3.2 million refugees control along the Turkish border. ton and Ankara and have demonstrated and 6.4 million internally displaced persons, The US has said that it will not coordinate the gap between the immediate aim of the according to the report, and almost half of the its military activities with Damascus. Howev US—namely to contain ISIS—and the much population, 10.8 million, require humanitarian er, it seems there is at least a tacit agreement broader objectives of Turkey which also assistance. Of those, 4.7 million are in hard to that Syrian o ensives should avoid interfer include a political transition that excludes reach areas and 241,000 are in besieged areas. ing with the US led airstrikes against ISIS. Assad and a halt in the nascent formation of The report said that since the adoption of res Meanwhile, since these airstrikes began Kurdish autonomy in Syria. olution 2165, there had been 23 cross border on 22 September, the Syrian military has Visiting Turkey between 18 and 20 Octo aid deliveries, but cross line deliveries within ramped up its own air campaign against reb ber, Amos said the ISIS onslaught around Syria occur but remain di cult. The govern el held areas. Anti ISIS strikes are enabling Kobani had caused nearly 190,000 civilians ment continues to use administrative obstacles President Bashar al Assad’s regime to refocus to flee to Turkey in a matter of weeks. Mean to slow aid delivery, in particular truck sealing its attacks on opposition groups and regain while, Lebanon has announced it will stop procedures and case by case negotiations of ground around Damascus and Aleppo and receiving Syrian refugees. She also said that deliveries to hard to reach areas. Armed oppo along its border with Jordan. Analysts have humanitarians can save lives but they can’t sition groups and terrorist groups block access 81'2&80(176216<5,$ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2165 (14 July 2014) and S/RES/2139 (22 February 2014) were on humanitarian access. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) was on chemical weapons. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7293 2FWREHU ZDVDEULHƃQJRQWKHKXPDQLWDULDQVLWXDWLRQLQ6\ULD Security Council Press Statements SC/11590 (3 October 2014) condemned ISIS for the murder of UK aid worker Alan Henning. SC/11589 (3 October 2014) condemned the 1 October twin bomb attacks on a VFKRROFRPSOH[LQDJRYHUQPHQWFRQWUROOHGDUHDRI+RPV Secretary-General’s Reports S/2014/756 (23 October 2014) was on humanitarian access. S/2014/706 (26 September 2014) was on chemical weapons. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Syria (con’t) to each other’s areas of control. Key elements Ongoing issues include tracking imple the chemical weapons track. of resolution 2139, such as observing medical mentation of resolutions 2139 and 2165 on Council members’ response to US led air neutrality and ceasing aerial bombardments, the humanitarian situation and 2118 on the strikes has been muted. Recent activity by remain unimplemented. The report also iden destruction of chemical weapons—in par the Council vis à vis Syria has been limited tified some civilian death and displacement ticular aerial bombardment and the use of to counter terrorism e orts, and the US led resulting from anti ISIS strikes. chlorine bombs. military response to ISIS as a wider regional Kaag briefed on 7 October, reporting on threat is likely to exacerbate that trend. the destruction plan for chemical weapons Options While the US and its allies in the region, production facilities in Syria—in particu Aside from following the Syrian situation such as Saudi Arabia, have a convergence of lar the four additional facilities disclosed by through briefings, Council options seem interest with Iran in confronting ISIS, the Syria only in September. She also updated limited. However, one option would be to struggle between Riyadh and Tehran for Council members on the 10 September issue a statement of support and priorities for regional influence remains the defining factor OPCW report that found evidence that chlo mediation ahead of De Mistura’s next round in the Syrian civil war as well as an obstacle rine had been used consistently and repeat of talks with Damascus. to any political solution. The Council’s coun edly in barrel bombs dropped from helicop Another option for Council members who ter terrorism approach and the international ters. Media reports indicate that there has are concerned that elements of resolution response to ISIS do not seem to have shifted been an upsurge in the government’s use of 2139, such as human rights and protection this fundamental underlying dynamic. The chlorine bombs against rebel held areas since of civilians, are being ignored is to request overwhelming focus on ISIS has left Assad the US led air strikes against ISIS began. to be regularly informed of the work of the in a strengthened position. If a political pro Commission of Inquiry on Syria. (A 25 Sep cess were started in the current environment, Human Rights-Related Developments tember Human Rights Council resolution there would be very little incentive for the On 16 October, High Commissioner for Human decided to transmit all of the Commission’s government to make any serious concessions 5LJKWV =HLG 5DŠDG $O +XVVHLQ VDLG KLV RƅFH reports to the Secretary General for “appro to the Syrian opposition. intends to issue an updated count of reported deaths in Syria by the end of the year, which will priate action”. The Secretary General could Nevertheless, some Council members think be well over the conservative estimate of 200,000. choose to bring the report to the attention that it is not acceptable that the Council has 2YHU WKH QH[W VHYHUDO PRQWKV WKH &RPPLV - of the Council using his article 99 powers.) ignored the political track for so long, and sion of Inquiry on Syria is planning to release An important, though less likely, option in there is an eagerness to hear regularly from the thematic reports on abuses perpetrated by ISIS, the face of the ever increasing militarisation new Special Envoy. However, De Mistura will deaths in custody, torture and forced disappear - DQFH WKH LPSDFW RI WKH FRQƄLFW RQ ZRPHQ DQG of the conflict is for the Council to heed the likely want to limit expectations that there will attacks on journalists and human rights defenders. Secretary General’s call for the international be any bold plans forthcoming in the near term. community to stop the flow of arms into Syr Few Council members expect that there will be Key Issues ia and impose an arms embargo. an attempt at a third round of highly publicised The key issue for the Council—in the fourth peace talks and instead presume his e orts will year of a civil war that can no longer be con Council and Wider Dynamics be focused on discreet shuttle diplomacy. tained inside Syria—is to ensure that its Despite a dramatic shift of the situation on France is the penholder on Syria overall, recent focus on counter terrorism e orts the ground, the Council continues to be in a while Australia, Jordan and Luxembourg are does not diminish its attention to reports that holding pattern on Syria. Activity on both the the penholders on the humanitarian track. the Assad regime remains responsible for the chemical weapons and humanitarian tracks In practice, however, most texts need to be majority of violations in the conflict. remains in monitoring mode. It is unlikely agreed between Russia and the US prior to A related issue is whether Council members either will garner much attention before agreement by the broader Council. will meaningfully engage with De Mistura to year’s end when the authorisation for cross Council members Australia, France, Jor find ways to support a cessation of violence border aid deliveries will need to be revisited dan, the UK and the US are part of the anti and resuscitate e orts for a political solution. and Kaag leaves her “good o ces” role on ISIS coalition. Lebanon (UNIFIL) Expected Council Action of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel Key Recent Developments In November, Special Coordinator for in 2006. Lebanon is experiencing serious challenges Lebanon Derek Plumbly will brief Council The mandate of the UN Interim Force in from both internal and external threats. The members in consultations on the Secretary Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August 2015. domestic political situation remains stagnant. General’s report on the implementation of More than five months after the term of Pres resolution 1701, which called for a cessation ident Michael Sleiman expired on 25 May, 18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Lebanon (UNIFIL) (con’t) Lebanon’s parliament remains unable to elect security personnel were captured in August On 20 October, Iranian Defence Minister a new head of state, compromising Leba by Al Nusra and the Islamic State in Iraq Hossein Dehghan announced that Iran was non’s ability to address its myriad challenges. and al Sham near Arsal, close to the Syrian ready to send military supplies to Lebanon to The parliament’s term expires on 20 Novem border. Three have since been executed. assist in its fight against terrorism, “with the ber, and at press time it remained unclear Hezbollah clashed with Sunni extrem aim of consolidating national authority and whether this term would be extended in order ist fighters from Al Nusra along Lebanon’s reinforcing security”. Lebanese Defence Min to avoid electing a new parliament before a north eastern border with Syria for two days ister Samir Moqbel said during a visit to Teh president is elected. Meanwhile, fighting beginning on the evening of 5 October, after ran that Iran’s military support would play an along both Lebanon’s southern border with Al Nusra fighters attacked three Hezbollah important role in helping push back radical Israel and its north eastern border with Syria military posts in the village of Brital, in the Islamist groups in the border regions. Iran’s continues to impact stability. Baalbek region. As the border is undefined in pledge of military aid has been a source of On 5 October, the Lebanese Armed Forc the area, it was unclear whether the clashes controversy, and it is unclear whether Lebanon es (LAF) informed UNIFIL that an LAF sol occurred in Lebanon or Syria. Nearly two will actually accept the aid, as several ministers dier had been shot and wounded by an Israel dozen militants were reportedly killed in the a liated with the anti Syrian March 14 Alli Defence Forces (IDF) soldier in the Sheb’a fighting. Hezbollah acknowledged that eight ance have expressed concern that such a deal Farms area. Two days later, the IDF informed of its fighters were killed, and 14 members of would contravene UN sanctions against Iran. UNIFIL that two of its soldiers had been Al Nusra were reportedly killed. Furthermore, Council members last met on Lebanon on injured by an improvised explosive device Hezbollah captured five Al Nusra fighters. 15 October, when Special Envoy Terje Rød detonated in the Sheb’a Farms area. Thirty Al Nusra also released what it claimed was Larsen briefed in consultations on the latest minutes after that, the IDF again contacted video footage from the fighting, and said the report of the Secretary General on the imple UNIFIL to report that there had been anoth operation was in retaliation for the burning mentation of resolution 1559, which urged er explosion, to which the IDF had responded of Syrian refugee camps in Arsal during an the disarmament of all militias and the exten with artillery fire directed at two Hezbollah LAF raid in late September, referring to a 25 sion of government control over all Lebanese targets near the border, according to an IDF September raid on a refugee camp during territory. The report expressed concern that spokesperson. A Hezbollah cell calling itself which, the army contends, unknown assailants Lebanon continues to face serious challenges the Ali Hassan Martyr Unit took responsi torched several tents. Attacks on LAF soldiers to its stability and security, both internally bility for the blasts and reported wounding by Sunni extremists in Arsal have increased, and along its borders with Syria, including Israeli soldiers. The IDF placed responsibility and Lebanese forces have in turn arrested from extremist groups, arms smuggling and for the explosions on both Hezbollah and the hundreds of Syrians in the area. Some of further influxes of refugees. It urged the gov Lebanese government, calling the incidents “a the militants responsible for the attacks were ernment and LAF to take all measures nec flagrant violation of Israel’s sovereignty”. believed to have hidden in refugee camps, and essary to prevent Hezbollah and other armed UNIFIL urged maximum restraint after the refugees have complained that innocent Syr groups from building paramilitary capacity incidents, which were in violation of resolu ians have been among those arrested. outside the authority of the state. tion 1701. “Such actions are in contravention On 20 October, Lebanon’s social a airs of e orts to reduce tensions and establish a minister, Rashid Derbas, announced that Human Rights-Related Developments stable and secure environment in southern Lebanon would not accept any more Syrian $VXPPDU\DFFRXQWRIWKHUHVXOWVRIDFRQƃGHQ - tial inquiry on Lebanon by the Committee Against Lebanon”, UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric refugees, but the borders would remain open 7RUWXUHDVVLVWHGE\WKH2ƅFHRIWKH+LJK&RP - told reporters on 7 October in New York. He to people travelling for other purposes, adding missioner for Human Rights, was released on 2 added that UNIFIL had contacted both par that “any Syrian national is welcome, but not October as part of the committee’s annual report ties, asking them to cooperate with the mission as a refugee”. At least 1.13 million Syrian refu (A/69/44). The inquiry began in May 2012 and to reduce tension and prevent escalation. UNI gees have registered with the UN in Lebanon. ended in November 2013, and the committee concluded torture in Lebanon is a pervasive prac - FIL launched an investigation into the incident. However, o cials say the actual number is tice routinely used by the armed forces and law At least 11 soldiers, eight civilians and 22 much higher. On 21 October, Special Coordi enforcement agencies for the purpose of inves - militants were killed in three days of heavy nator Plumbly, accompanied by the UN High tigation, securing confessions, and punishment. fighting between the LAF and Islamist gun Commissioner for Refugees representative in Furthermore, conditions observed in most of the men in the predominantly Sunni northern Lebanon, met with the Baalbek Hermel dis detention facilities could be described as cruel, city of Tripoli that began on 24 October. On trict governor to discuss Syrian refugee issues. inhuman and degrading according to the report. The committee issued 34 recommendations and the morning of 27 October, Al Nusra Front Plumbly said they discussed the di cult con asked Lebanon to submit a follow-up report by issued a threat that it would kill a captured ditions in which Syrian refugees were living 22 November. Lebanese soldier unless the army stopped its and he expressed solidarity with Lebanon in operation in Tripoli. Around 30 Lebanese light of the border attacks by Al Nusra. 81'2&80(17621/(%$121 Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2172 $XJXVW H[WHQGHGWKHPDQGDWHRI81,),/IRURQH\HDU S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) urged ZLWKGUDZDORIDOOIRUHLJQIRUFHVIURP/HEDQRQGLVDUPDPHQWRIDOO/HEDQHVHDQGQRQ/HEDQHVHPLOLWLDVDQGH[WHQVLRQRIWKH/HEDQHVHJRYHUQPHQWŠVFRQWURORYHUDOO/HEDQHVHWHUULWRU\ Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2014/10 0D\ H[SUHVVHGGLVDSSRLQWPHQWWKDWSUHVLGHQWLDOHOHFWLRQVZHUHQRWFRPSOHWHGZLWKLQWKHFRQVWLWXWLRQDOWLPHIUDPH and urged Lebanon to hold elections quickly. It also called on all parties to respect Lebanon’s policy of disassociation and to refrain from any involvement in the Syrian crisis. Secretary- General’s Reports S/2014/720 (7 October 2014) was most recent report on the implementation of resolution 1559. S/2014/438 (26 June 2014) was the most recent report on the imple- mentation of resolution 1701. Security Council Press Statement SC/11507 $XJXVW FRQGHPQHGWKHDWWDFNVE\YLROHQWH[WUHPLVWJURXSVRQWKH/$)DQG,QWHUQDO6HFXULW\)RUFHV Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Lebanon (UNIFIL) (con’t) Key Issues growing numbers of Syrian refugees, which conflict, outlined in the Baabda Declaration The key issue for the Council is the need to continues to have adverse social, political and of June 2012. prevent the recurrence or escalation of hos economic e ects on Lebanon. tilities between Israel and Lebanon. Council Dynamics A related issue is the weaponry in the Options There is consensus in the Council that UNI hands of Hezbollah and other non state One option is for the Council to merely FIL contributes to stability between Israel actors, which continues to restrict the ability receive the briefing and take no action. and Lebanon and has become even more of the state to exercise full authority over its Given the lack of progress towards elect crucial in the context of the fighting in Gaza territory, poses a threat to Lebanon’s sover ing a president and the looming end of and the ongoing Syrian crisis. The Council eignty and stability and contravenes its obli term of the parliament, another option is to remains united in its support for Lebanon’s gations under resolutions 1559 and 1701. issue a presidential statement encouraging sovereignty, territorial integrity and securi Ongoing issues include other violations of the election to take place in an expeditious ty. The Council is also united in its concern resolution 1701, such as regular Israeli over manner in order to maintain stability. Such about the continued vacancy in the presiden flights in Lebanese airspace. a statement could also reiterate support to cy, particularly given the extreme challenges Several pressing issues arise from the the Government of Lebanon, including in facing Lebanon at this time. conflict in neighbouring Syria, including the its fight against terrorism, and stress the France is the penholder on Lebanon in engagement of Lebanese elements in the war need for all Lebanese parties to abide by the Council. there and the immense burden of hosting its policy of dissociation from the Syrian UN Policing Expected Council Action of strengthening the rule of law institutions of Group on the strategic priorities for UN At the initiative of Australia, Under Secre the host country and helping national authori police: a focus on field missions, prudent tary General for Peacekeeping Operations ties develop critical rule of law priorities and and e ective management, holistic doctrine Hervé Ladsous will brief the in November on strategies to address the needs of police, judi and consistent training and the development cross cutting thematic issues in UN policing. cial institutions and corrections system. of partnerships in order to maximise impact. The Council will also hear from three heads Along the same lines, resolution 2151 of Previously, on 15 November 2013, under the of police components of UN missions. The 28 April on security sector reform, noted the chairmanship of Ambassador Masood Khan adoption of the first stand alone resolution important role that UN police can play in (Pakistan), the Working Group discussed the on UN policing is the likely outcome. “supporting, and coordinating international role of UN police in peacekeeping operations support for, reform of national police institu and its related challenges and opportunities, Background tions and building police capacity in a com including its role in addressing organised In February, the Secretariat promulgated its prehensive way that emphasises a commu crime and emerging threats. Policy on UN Police in Peacekeeping Opera nity oriented approach and inter alia builds The first police o cers deployed in a UN tions and Special Political Missions, which strong governance, oversight and account peacekeeping operation were mandated by defines policing as “a function of governance ability mechanisms within the framework of resolution 143 in 1960 and served in the UN responsible for the prevention, detection and a functional judicial and corrections system”. Operation in the Congo. As of 30 Septem investigation of crime; protection of persons Discussions among Council members ber, 12,516 police o cers were serving in and property; and the maintenance of public focusing specifically on UN police have tak 13 peacekeeping operations and six special order and safety”. en place mostly in the Working Group on political missions. Although UN police are deployed in Peacekeeping, illustrating the usefulness of In early missions, police o cers were most peacekeeping operations and policing that forum to tackle issues that are not get deployed primarily as observers, but UN tasks more broadly are included in many of ting the attention of the Council as such. On police undertook increasingly complex tasks the Council’s country specific mandates, the 17 October, the Working Group, under the with the surge in peacekeeping in the 1990s. Council has not discussed the subject except chairmanship of Ambassador Eugène Rich Following the signature of the Dayton Agree as part of wider discussions on peacekeeping or ard Gasana (Rwanda) held a meeting on the ment in 1995, the Council established a peacebuilding. For example, resolution 2086 of multi year strategy for UN police. The Police 1,721 strong UN International Police Task 21 January 2013 emphasised the importance Adviser, Stefan Feller, briefed the Working Force in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In 1999, the 81'2&80(176218132/,&,1* Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2151 $SULO ZDVWKHƃUVWVWDQGDORQHUHVROXWLRQRQVHFXULW\VHFWRUUHIRUP S/RES/2086 (21 January 2013) emphasised the relationship between peacekeeping and peacebuilding. Security Council Letters S/2014/213 0DUFK ZDVWKHƃQDOUHSRUWRIWKH)LQQLVKZRUNVKRS “Hitting the Ground Running”. S/2013/786 (30 December 2013) was a letter by Pakistan with a report of the activities of the Working Group on Peacekeeping in 2013. *HQHUDO$VVHPEO\ Document A/66/615 (15 December 2011) was a report on UN police. Other DPKO/DFS Policy on UN Police in Peacekeeping Operations and Special Political Missions 2014 , Ref. 2014.01 86()8/$'',7,21$/5(6285&( Police in UN Peacekeeping: Improving Selection, Recruitment, and Deployment , William J. Durch and Michelle Ker, International Peace Institute, November 2013. 20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 UN Policing (con’t) first Formed Police Unit—a cohesive mobile timing and design of peacekeeping mandates Council and Wider Dynamics police unit that provides support to UN is a related issue. This will be the first time heads of police operations, primarily in public order man Ensuring that there is system wide coher components of UN missions brief the Coun agement—was deployed in Kosovo. Civilian ence in the way UN policing is conducted and cil. Since 2010, the Council has received an police—its name was changed to UN police in that practical steps are taken by the Secretariat annual briefing by force commanders on cross 2005—contributed to the implementation of to improve coherence is a further related issue. cutting operational issues in UN peacekeep executive mandates in Kosovo and East Timor. ing. According to the report of the Finnish In 2006, the UN created a 40 member Stand Options workshop for newly elected Council members, ing Police Capacity based in Italy that became Options for the Council in adopting a res held on 21 22 November 2013, some Coun operational by October 2007 with a mandate olution include: cil members cited the annual briefing by the to be rapidly deployed to help set up the police • stressing the crucial role and added value force commanders as a model for Council component in UN missions. of UN policing in peacekeeping and post meetings because of the substance of the top In 2011, the Special Committee on conflict peacebuilding; ics discussed and the interactivity allowed by Peacekeeping Operations requested the • recognising the key role of UN policing in the format. As an outcome of the workshop, it Secretary General to prepare a report on protecting civilians and in pursuing themat was agreed that a similar briefing would take the functioning of the Police Division of the ic issues such as women, peace and security; place with heads of police components when Department of Peacekeeping Operations and • urging the Secretariat to continue expand they visit New York in November (S/2014/213). the challenges faced by the police compo ing the range of police contributors and There seems to be widespread agreement nents in peacekeeping missions (A/66/615). promoting the deployment of female among Council members about the time The report identified a number of challenges, police o cers; liness of this discussion given the frequen such as the need for standardised pre deploy • recalling the importance of establishing cy with which the Council authorises the ment training including developing expertise realistic mandates and allocating enough deployment of police o cers within UN mis to deal with the protection of civilians, sexual resources to ensure their implementation; sions and includes policing tasks within its and gender based violence and similar issues; • highlighting the importance of pre deploy mandates. However, in previous negotiations the delivery of coherent and consistent advice ment and in theatre training for UN police on issues related to the continuum between and support to host state counterparts; the as a way of ensuring their common stan peacekeeping and post conflict peacebuild inability to recruit and deploy appropriately dards in implementing Council mandates; ing (such as security sector reform) at least experienced and qualified police personnel • stressing the need for all UN mandated one Council member opposed routine inclu on a timely basis and unpredictable interna police components to operate within strict sion of rule of law related tasks (like polic tional funding for police reform projects. observance of international humanitarian ing) in all Council mandated missions. and human rights law; and As of 30 September there were 89 police Key Issues • acknowledging the importance of national contributing countries, but just the top ten Enhancing the Council’s own understanding ownership and demand driven approaches (Council members Jordan and Rwanda of the opportunities and challenges of policing to UN policing, while preserving a prin among them) contribute more than 60 per performed in UN field missions is a key issue. cipled action. cent of UN police personnel. The impact of this understanding on the Sanctions Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments of the HLR is to enhance the e ectiveness of At the initiative of Council President Aus At a 28 May briefing in the Trusteeship Coun UN sanctions through better integration and tralia, the Council is scheduled to be briefed cil chambers, Australia, Finland, Germany, coordination, both within the UN system and on sanctions in November, most likely by Greece and Sweden—in partnership with the with external institutions and legal instruments. Under Secretary General for Political A airs consultancy Compliance and Capacity Inter The HLR has proceeded through a series Je rey Feltman and incoming Interpol Sec national and the Watson Institute at Brown of meetings held by three working groups, retary General Jürgen Stock. A resolution is University—launched the High Level Review with participation by member states, the Sec a potential outcome. of United Nations Sanctions (HLR). The goal retariat and UN agencies and civil society. The 81'2&80(176216$1&7,216 Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7285 and Resumption 1 (23 October 2014) was an open debate on working methods. S/PV.6964 (10 May ZDVD&RXQFLOEULHƃQJRQVXEVLGLDU\RUJDQV Security Council Letters S/2007/734 (12 December 2007) transmitted the report from a symposium organised by Greece, “Enhancing the Implementation of United Nations Security Council Sanctions”. S/2006/331 (19 May 2006) transmitted the Watson White Paper, Strengthening Targeted Sanctions Through Fair and Clear Procedures . Notes by the President of the Council S/2014/393 (5 June 2014) concerned the appointment of chairs of subsidiary organs and other transition processes. S/2012/937 (17 December 2012) concerned the appointment of chairs of subsidiary organs and other transition processes. Working Group Document S/2006/997 (18 December 2006) transmitted WKHƃQDOUHSRUWRIWKH,QIRUPDO:RUNLQJ*URXSRIWKH6HFXULW\&RXQFLORQ*HQHUDO,VVXHVRI6DQFWLRQV 86()8/$'',7,21$/5(6285&( Enrico Carisch, Sue Eckert, and Loraine Rickard-Martin, High Level Review of UN Sanctions Background Paper Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Sanctions (con’t) first working group has assessed integration Options . Building on these e orts, the Informal • examining the possibilities, in conjunction and coordination within the UN system (e.g. Working Group on General Issues of Sanc with the Secretary General, for increasing sanctions committees, expert groups, the Sec tions, set up in April 2000, transmitted its final the resources available to the Secretariat retariat, the Ombudsperson, peacekeeping report on 18 December 2006 (S/2006/997). for administration; operations and special political missions). The On 30 April 2007, Greece sponsored a sympo • reforming the process of the appoint second working group has focused on linkages sium at the UN on enhancing the implemen ment of sanctions committee chairs and between UN sanctions and external institu tation of UN sanctions (S/2007/734). Other subsequent transition processes between tions and instruments (e.g. arms control and studies have been undertaken by civil society the outgoing and incoming chairs disarmament agencies, financial and economic actors, such as the white paper by the Watson (S/2014/393 and S/2012/937); and regulatory bodies, and international criminal Institute of Brown University, Strengthening • instituting a mechanism requiring consul justice institutions). The third working group Targeted Sanctions through Fair and Clear Pro tation between penholders and sanctions has examined sanctions in relation to violations cedures , transmitted to the General Assembly committee chairs prior to drafting sanc of human rights and international humanitar and the Security Council on 19 May 2006 tions resolutions. ian law, regional organisations and implemen (A/60/887 – S/2006/331). tation issues, and relevant emerging threats. It Council and Wider Dynamics appears that the final outcome document for Key Issues Council dynamics on sanctions are multifac the HLR will not be published prior to the The core issue is the relative lack of e ective eted, complex and in some contexts ambig Council event in November. At press time, the ness of UN sanctions to date. Closely related uous. The history of the Informal Working chairs of the three working groups were due issues are: assessing what measures would Group on General Issues of Sanctions, which on 31 October to brief the Secretariat and UN most improve UN sanctions design and imple deliberated over the content of a final report member states on the findings of the HLR. mentation and then determining how these for several years before the Council eventual On 23 October, the Council held its components could be most usefully incorpo ly decided the Working Group had exhausted fifth annual debate on working methods rated within a Security Council resolution. its mandate and merely took “note with inter (S/PV.7285 and Resumption 1). Kimberly On the sanctions management side, an est of the best practices and methods con Prost, the Ombudsperson, and Fatou Ben immediate sanctions related issue is the tained in the Working Group’s report”, illus souda, Prosecutor of the International Crimi upcoming process of the appointment of trates some of the di culties facing e orts to nal Court (ICC), briefed the Council. Each Council sanctions committee chairs. reform UN sanctions. advocated the extension of the mandate of One potential divide among Council the O ce of the Ombudsperson from the Options members apparently relates to di erences 1267 Al Qaida sanctions regime to the other Options for sanctions design and implementa regarding innovation in the types of sanc UN sanctions regimes. (Bensouda also sug tion the Council may wish to consider include: tions measures, such as the recent authori gested the creation of a working group on • making pre authorisation evaluation pro sation of naval interdiction of illicit char international tribunals.) Council members cesses (i.e. strategic objectives and unin coal exports and arms imports in the case emphasised due process and transparency tended consequences) a standard compo of Somalia (S/RES/2182). Another aspect of in their sanctions related remarks. Ambassa nent of sanctions design; sanctions where there seems to be a range of dor Geir O. Pedersen (Norway), speaking on • analysing options to make more frequent perspectives among Council members con behalf of the group of like minded states on use of secondary sanctions in response to cerns national sovereignty and to what extent targeted sanctions, made recommendations chronic non compliance; this should limit the scope of UN sanctions regarding due process, information sharing, • authorising incremental due process (e.g. the positions of China and Russia com transparency and delisting processes. reforms to enhance the functioning and pared to the other three permanent members legitimacy of UN sanctions; regarding natural resource management). A Background • creating a subsidiary body of the Council third area where the positions of Council The High Level Review of United Nations or a mechanism within the Secretariat to members apparently diverge is due process. Sanctions has several notable precedents. improve the coordination and integration This is also an issue on which there seems to Much of the early work was state led, involving of sanctions implementation; be a wide gap between the positions of cer the governments of Germany, Switzerland and • undertaking more frequent field missions tain P5 members of the Council (e.g. Russia Sweden: the Bonn Berlin Process, resulting in by the chairs of sanctions committees to and the US) and other Council members and the 2001 report, Design and Implementation of improve implementation and compliance; UN member states, particularly the group Arms Embargoes and Travel and Aviation Related • increasing the transparency of sanctions of like minded states on targeted sanctions, Sanctions ; the Interlaken Process, resulting in committees while also augmenting public which has advocated extending the man the 2001 report, Targeted Financial Sanctions: outreach and information dissemination; date of the Ombudsperson to all sanctions A Manual for Design and Implementation ; and • systematically incorporating a consulta regimes (S/PV.6964). the Stockholm Process, resulting in the 2003 tion process for sanctions committees with Where there appears to be su cient report, Making Targeted Sanctions E ective: member states directly a ected by sanc common ground among Council members Guidelines for the Implementation of UN Policy tions regimes; is a shared recognition on two points: UN 22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 Sanctions (con’t) sanctions are not as e ective as they implementation. The resolution which e ectiveness of implementation through bet should and could be, and there are techni may be adopted in November will most ter coordination and integration. cal reforms that could be made to improve likely focus on e ciency, consistency and Kosovo Expected Council Action September, the nationalist Self Determina The report stated that failure to constitute In November, the Council will hold its quar tion party (16 seats) joined the coalition in the new legislature smoothly and in a timely terly debate on Kosovo. Farid Zarif, the exchange for running a dialogue with Serbia manner has been a setback and that the new Special Representative and head of the UN in a new government. government would need to launch a range of Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo Seeking a solution to the crisis, Kosovo comprehensive reforms, in particular elector (UNMIK), is expected to present the latest President Atifete Jahjaga referred the issue al reform and public administration reform. Secretary General’s report. High level par to the Constitutional Court, which ruled Earlier this year, the assembly adopted ticipation in the debate from both Serbia and that the PDK had the right, as the party that a law transferring the functions of the EU Kosovo is likely. won the most votes in the election, to nomi Rule of Law Mission (EULEX) special inves No Council action is expected. nate the candidate for speaker of the assem tigative task force to a special court that will bly. The court also ruled that the president investigate cases involving war crimes and Key Recent Developments should nominate a PDK candidate for prime allegations of organ tra cking by the Kosovo Four months after elections, Kosovo remains minister. On 18 September, the PDK pro Liberation Army during the conflict in Koso deadlocked in a constitutional and political posed a candidate only to be blocked by the vo. Though expected to be fully operational crisis stemming from the inability of polit majority of the assembly members. Unable at the beginning of 2015, establishment of ical leaders to reach an agreement on the to elect its president, the assembly adjourned the court could be postponed pending for formation of a new government. On 8 June, the session. mation of the new government and adoption Kosovo held its first general election under a Though initially planned for 2 October, of legislation necessary for the functioning unified legal framework, with the participa the third session of the assembly was post of the court. tion of all voters, including Kosovar Serbs. poned until further notice with the aim of On 23 October, Belgrade hosted an EU Both the EU and the Organisation for Secu finding an alternative solution to the crisis. Commission sponsored Western Balkans rity and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) On 9 October, the opposition bloc gathered ministerial conference with participation declared the elections to be a successful exer in the assembly but failed to reach a quo of foreign ministers from the region. Enver cise of democracy. At the last Council debate, rum for a regular session due to the absence Hoxhaj, Kosovo’s foreign minister, took held on 29 August, Zarif and the majority of 58 members, mainly from the PDK and part in the meeting, making it the first high of Council members urged political leaders minority parties. In the meantime, Jahjaga level visit by a Kosovo o cial to Belgrade. in Kosovo to address the issue of forming continued consultations with the leaders of Addressing the media, Hoxhaj said that his a new government with utmost immediacy. the major political parties aimed at solving visit “shows that the process of normalization At press time, Kosovo leaders still had not the political impasse in a way that complied of relations between Kosovo and Serbia as formed a new government. with the ruling of the Constitutional Court. two sovereign and independent states is at an The stalemate is a result of a disagree The consultations did not result in any form important phase”. Furthermore, Hoxhaj told ment between Prime Minister Hashim Tha of agreement on the issue. reporters that the dialogue between Belgrade çi’s Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) The ongoing constitutional crisis impact and Pristina should end with a peace treaty and the opposition coalition bloc led by ed the EU facilitated dialogue between Bel that included Serbia’s recognition of Koso the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), grade and Pristina, causing a standstill in vo as an independent state and of Kosovo’s which includes the Alliance for the Future of high level meetings; the last one was held on admission to the UN. Kosovo (AAK) and the Initiative for Koso 31 March. However, the dialogue has contin The security situation in Kosovo remained vo. Of 120 seats in the Assembly, the PDK ued on a technical level, with several meet stable without major incidents. Kosovo won the most seats (37) and, as a result, the ings on the implementation of 19 April agree authorities have continued addressing the right to form a government. After the elec ment having taken place since March. On 8 issue of terrorism and participation of Kos tions, the LDK (30 seats), AAK (11 seats) October, the European Commission issued ovars in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq. On 17 and the Initiative for Kosovo (6 seats) formed its progress report on Kosovo, which outlined September, Kosovo police arrested 15 sus a 47 seat coalition and claimed the right to the main areas of progress towards EU inte pects on charges of terrorism, threatening form a new government because their com gration. While noting some positive develop the constitutional order and inciting religious bined seat count was now the largest. On 10 ments, the report stressed the political crisis. hate speech. Earlier in August, Kosovo police UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO Security Council Resolution S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7257 (29 August 2014) was the most recent debate on Kosovo. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 23 Kosovo (con’t) arrested 40 persons suspected of supporting solution to the current crisis and forming a Council dynamics on Kosovo remain extremist organisations. new government in line with democratic and unchanged, with clear division among the constitutional principles. permanent members. France, the UK and Key Issues Once the constitutional crisis recedes, an the US recognise Kosovo while Russia is Maintaining stability in Kosovo remains the option would be to consider lengthening the strongly supportive of Serbia on the Council. main issue for the Council, especially in light reporting cycle on Kosovo in consideration This division will likely prevent any action of the current political crisis, which could of the stabilisation of the situation following by the Council that would significantly alter potentially have destabilising e ect on Kosovo. the 19 April agreement on the normalisation UNMIK’s mandate. Resumption of the EU facilitated dia of relations between Belgrade and Pristina. The contact and drafting group on Koso logue and implementation of the existing A likely option is for the Council to take no vo consists of France, Germany, Italy, Rus agreements between Belgrade and Pristina action, as has been the case for several years. sia, the UK and the US and also includes is also an issue for the Council. Australia, Lithuania and Luxembourg as cur Council Dynamics rent Council members representing the two Options Kosovo remains an issue of relative low inten regional groups that include European states. An option for the Council would be to issue sity in the Council as a result of the more In November, Lithuania will take the lead a statement calling on political leaders in active role of other international organisations, on Kosovo within the contact and drafting Kosovo to engage constructively in finding a primarily the EU, NATO and the OSCE. group. DPRK (North Korea) Expected Council Action strategic rocket fire command and its head as 2009—these talks focused on the DPRK’s In November, the chair of the 1718 Demo subject to sanctions. Meanwhile, the DPRK nuclear programme and involve China, the cratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) reportedly fired three short range missiles on DPRK, Japan, the ROK, Russia and the US. Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Sylvie 6 September. On 1 October, Russian Foreign Minister Ser Lucas (Luxembourg), is due to brief Coun On the Korean Peninsula, attempts to gei Lavrov said after a meeting in Moscow cil members in consultations on the work of restart the political dialogue between the with his DPRK counterpart that he saw a the Committee. DPRK and the ROK progressed slowly. On 4 possibility for the talks to resume and on 2 October, o cials from the two countries agreed October the DPRK Ambassador in Gene Key Recent Developments to resume high level talks later that month or va, So Se pyong, reiterated that his country Lucas last briefed Council members on 5 in November. (The last such talks, and the first was ready to restart the talks. The US Spe August. There was also a discussion on the in seven years, were held on 12 February.) On cial Envoy for Six Party Talks, Sydney Seiler, DPRK during consultations on 20 August 7 October, however, the two countries’ navies travelled to Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo for con under “any other business”. On that occasion, exchanged fire after a DPRK vessel crossed the sultations from 28 September to 1 October Council members considered an 18 August Northern Limit Line, the disputed sea border together with the US Special Representative letter from the DPRK, in which it reiterated in the Yellow Sea. Furthermore, on 10 October, for North Korea Policy, Glyn Davies, and its 21 July request for the Council to hold an the DPRK opened fire near the demilitarised again from 27 October to 1 November. urgent meeting on the US Republic of Korea zone dividing the Korean Peninsula after activ International focus on the human rights (ROK) joint military exercises, but did not ists in the ROK sent balloons across the border situation in the DPRK intensified as the grant the request. carrying propaganda leaflets. Top military o General Assembly’s Third Committee began The Sanctions Committee met on 3 Sep cials from the two sides met on 15 October to negotiations on the annual resolution on the tember to consider the mid term report from discuss the incidents but apparently failed to human rights situation in the DPRK spon its Panel of Experts. In addition, the Com narrow any di erences. On 19 October, there sored by Japan and the EU. The initial draft mittee discussed a 1 August update to the was yet another exchange of gunfire within the encouraged the Security Council to consider Panel’s 28 April incident report concerning demilitarised zone. In a later development, the the recommendations of the Commission of the 26 March medium range ballistic mis DPRK rejected an ROK proposal to hold talks Inquiry established by the Human Rights sile launches. The update covered the mis on 30 October, citing the ROK’s failure to pre Council, including referring the situation in sile launches conducted in June and July vent the continuation of leaflet launches. the DPRK to the ICC and imposing targeted and reiterated the Panel’s recommendation There were reports about reviving the sanctions against those most responsible for that the Committee designate the DPRK’s six party talks that have been stalled since crimes against humanity. (The Commission’s UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DPRK Security Council Resolution S/RES/2141 0DUFK H[WHQGHGXQWLO$SULOWKH3DQHORI([SHUWŠVPDQGDWHDQGUHTXHVWHGDPLGWHUPUHSRUW by 5 August. Security Council Letters S/2014/668 (15 September 2014) was from the DPRK transmitting its own human rights report. S/2014/604 (18 August 2014) was from the DPRK UHLWHUDWLQJD-XO\UHTXHVWWKDWWKH&RXQFLOIRUPDOO\FRQVLGHUWKH8652.MRLQWPLOLWDU\H[HUFLVHVS/2014/276 (14 April 2014) transmitted the Commission of Inquiry report to the Council. Human Rights Council Document A/HRC/27/10 (2 July 2014) was the report of the working group on the Universal Periodic Review of the DPRK. 24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 DPRK (North Korea) (con’t) report was transmitted to the Council on 14 prohibit the use of torture and ill-treatment, estab - response. A further option would be to revise April by Australia, France and the US.) OLVKDV\VWHPWRSUHYHQWVH[XDOYLROHQFHDJDLQVW the guidelines. Meanwhile, in a 15 September letter female prisoners and an end arbitrary detention and enforced disappearances. the DPRK submitted its own report on Council and Wider Dynamics the human rights situation in the country. The discussions in the Sanctions Commit According to the letter, the report “reflects Key Issues tee on how to respond to the DPRK’s rock e orts…to lay bare the false nature of the A key issue for the Council is how to respond et launches have followed traditional divid reckless anti DPRK ‘human rights’ racket to the DPRK’s continued flouting of all rel ing lines between those calling for a strong kicked up by hostile forces”. The DPRK also evant resolutions, in particular its recent mis response such as additional sanctions desig proposed in the Third Committee an alter sile launches. nations, including the US and like minded native to the draft resolution circulated by A further key issue is the DPRK’s contin countries, and more cautious members, such Japan and the EU that would exclude any ued refusal to engage in any sustained dia as China and Russia. China in particular con reference to international justice mechanisms logue with the international community. tinues to argue that any further Council action and instead call for dialogue and negotiations. An additional issue is whether the Council will only be counterproductive and aggravate On 27 October, in New York, DPRK o cials should address the human rights situation in tensions in the region while advocating for for the first time met with the Special Rap the DPRK. a resumption of the six party talks. Russia porteur on the situation of human rights in At the Sanctions Committee level, a key appears sympathetic to the DPRK’s criticism North Korea, Marzuki Darusman, and invit issue is the overall e ective implementation of the US ROK joint military exercises. ed him to visit Pyongyang, but on the con of the sanctions regime. A key procedural With regard to the human rights situa dition that any reference to the ICC would issue is whether to update the Committee tion, at press time Council members were be dropped from the draft resolution under guidelines, which have not been revised since focused on the negotiations underway in the consideration in the Third Committee. In a first agreed on 20 June 2007. (At press time, General Assembly. Members supporting fur briefing to the Third Committee on 28 Octo the chair had indicated that a proposal for ther action seemed to be hoping for a strong ber, Darusman welcomed the DPRK’s will revised guidelines would soon be circulated.) Third Committee resolution, including clear ingness to engage in a discussion on human recommendations to the Council that could rights and also said the change in attitude Options serve to increase the pressure against the had perhaps been prompted by the increased With regard to the upcoming chair’s briefing, DPRK, and also against China, which would attention resulting from the Commission of Council members could reiterate their sup be expected to veto an ICC referral. While Inquiry report. port for the recommendations of the Com they welcomed the DPRK’s apparent willing mission of Inquiry while emphasising the link ness to engage with the international com Human Rights-Related Developments between the DPRK’s proliferation activities munity, they also stressed that the regime in The Human Rights Council adopted the outcomes and its human rights violations. They could Pyongyang had to be judged by its actions of the Universal Periodic Review of the DPRK on also indicate that they would welcome regu and not by its words. In the past this resolu 6HSWHPEHU7KH'35.IRUWKHƃUVWWLPHDFFHSW - ed some of the report’s recommendations (113 out lar briefings by the High Commissioner for tion has traditionally been adopted by con of 268). Speakers welcomed the DPRK’s engage - Human Rights on the situation in the DPRK. sensus, but it seems this year the sponsors ment and acknowledged progress in the rights of In the Sanctions Committee, Coun have signalled a willingness to take it to a persons with disabilities. They stressed, however, cil members could agree to the new sanc vote if necessary to achieve a strong outcome. the importance of genuine cooperation with the tions listings recommended by the Panel of (Final adoption of the resolution is expected international community to address the human ULJKWV VLWXDWLRQ DQG H[SUHVVHG JUDYH FRQFHUQ Experts. Alternatively, the Committee could in late November.) that more than half of the recommendations were send a letter to the DPRK with the updat The US is the Council penholder on the rejected, including calls to close political prison ed incident report and request a written DPRK. camps immediately, abolish the death penalty, Bosnia and Herzegovina Expected Council Action Herzegovina and to renew the authorisation debate, High Representative Valentin Inzko is In November, the Council is expected to for the EU led multinational stabilisation expected to brief on recent developments and hold its semi annual debate on Bosnia and force (EUFOR ALTHEA) for a year. At the present his o ce’s latest report to the Council. 81'2&80(17621%261,$$1'+(5=(*29,1$ Security Council Resolution S/RES/2123 (12 November 2013) reauthorized the EU-led multinational stabilisation mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7176 0D\ ZDVDEULHƃQJE\WKH+LJK5HSUHVHQWDWLYHGXULQJWKH&RXQFLOGHEDWHRQWKHVLWXDWLRQLQ%RVQLDDQG Herzegovina. Security Council Letters S/2014/531 (25 July 2014) was the report on the activities of EUFOR from 1 December 2013 to 28 February 2014. S/2014/314 (5 May 2014) was the High Representative’s report covering the period 21 October 2013 to 21 April 2014. 86()8/$'',7,21$/5(6285&(6 Bosnia’s Future , Europe Report Number 232, International Crisis Group, 10 July 2014. Statement of Preliminary Findings and Conclusions of 12 October 2014, BiH General Elections , OSCE International Election Observation Mission. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 25 Bosnia and Herzegovina (con’t) The current authorisation for EUFOR damages and economic losses amounted to to Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integ ALTHEA expires on 12 November. around 2 billion euros. Neighbouring Serbia rity and the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended also experienced severe damage from flood the country’s war, is an ongoing related issue. Key Recent Developments ing, estimated at 1.5 billion euros. The gov Continuing lack of progress towards achiev General elections were held on 12 October ernment’s handling of relief e orts generated ing a set of objectives and conditions estab for Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three member criticism from both the public and the inter lished by members of the Peace Implementa presidency, the national parliament and entity national community. However, over the last tion Council Steering Board (Canada, France, and local governments. The Organization for six months, the civic activism that followed a Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, US, the EU, Security and Co operation in Europe (OSCE), wave of major protests in February over socio the European Commission and the Organisa which had a 294 person monitoring team economic conditions and political corruption tion of the Islamic Conference) for closing the on the ground, released a statement that the has mostly faded. O ce of the High Representative is another elections had been conducted in an orderly On 8 October the EU Commission issued issue likely to be recalled at the debate. manner, candidates had been able to cam its annual progress reports on the EU integra paign freely and that freedoms of expression, tion of Western Balkan countries. In its report Options association and assembly were respected. The on Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Commis One option is to renew the authorisation of statement highlighted, however, that ethnicity sion concluded that the country’s integration EUFOR ALTHEA for a further 12 months based legal restrictions place limits on voting remained at a standstill while most of its neigh and, while reflecting the recent develop rights and candidates’ ability to run for o ce, bours were moving ahead decisively and that ments and the conclusions of the EU Foreign contrary to OSCE standards and EU law. its leaders lacked the political will to address A airs Council, refrain from making substan It appears that Milorad Dodik will retain his the reforms required for progressing on the tive changes to the resolution. position as president of the Republika Srpska, EU path. A less likely option is to renew the one of the two entities in Bosnia and Herzegov On 20 October, the EU Foreign A airs authorisation but also call for a revision of ina, but the results were seen as disappointing Council adopted its conclusions on Bosnia and the criteria for closing the O ce of the High for his ruling Alliance of Independent Social Herzegovina, welcoming the way the elections Representative. Democrats party (SNSD). An opposition can had been conducted and reiterated calls for the didate, Mladen Ivanić won the Bosnian Serb leadership to address the challenges facing the Council Dynamics seat of the rotating presidency, and the SNSD country as it moves towards European inte Bosnia and Herzegovina is an issue on which lost seats in the parliament and the Republika gration. The conclusions expressed the EU’s the Council follows the lead of the EU Foreign Srpska assembly. intentions to maintain EUFOR ALTHEA A airs Council. Most members are concerned In the Federation of Bosnia and Herze under a UN mandate. about the political gridlock and economic govina—the other entity that is predominantly A civil court in The Hague ruled on 16 stagnation and are critical of Dodik’s divisive Bosniak and Croat—the Social Democratic July that the Netherlands must compensate rhetoric. Within the EU, the UK—siding with Party, which had been the largest, did very the families of around 300 Bosnian Muslims the US—has been more vocal about main poorly across the national parliament, entity killed at Srebrenica after Dutch peacekeepers taining international engagement in Bosnia and cantonal elections, losing most of its seats. in July 1995 turned the men, who were in their and Herzegovina, compared to France, which Bakir Izetbegović of the Party for Democratic compound, over to Bosnian Serb forces. The has been less convinced about the continuing Action retained the Bosniak seat in the tripar court, however, found that the Netherlands need for EUFOR and the O ce of the High tite presidency. The Croat seat in the presiden could not be held liable for the majority of the Representative. Ongoing problems in Bosnia cy was won by Dragan Čović, whose nation 8,000 Bosnian Muslims killed at Srebrenica, a and Herzegovina appear to be one reason why alistic party has advocated the creation of a UN designated safe area, because they were it is expected that there will be little change third separate Croat entity. He replaces Željko never in the direct custody of the Dutch troops. in the upcoming resolution. Russia feels that Komšić as the Croat member of the rotating Republika Srpska is wrongly blamed for the presidency, who opposed a separate entity. Key Issues country’s problems and wants the O ce of In several media interviews during October, The immediate issue for the Council is renew the High Representative closed. Dodik said that he would support the creation ing the authorisation of EUFOR ALTHEA The Contact and Drafting Group, which of a Croat entity. under Chapter VII. drafts decisions on Bosnia and Herzegovina To maintain stability during the election Another issue is Bosnia and Herzegovina’s before they are considered by the Council, period, EUFOR ALTHEA was reinforced in political gridlock and the failure of its politi consists of France, Germany, Italy, Russia, June with two UK reconnaissance platoons cal system and leaders to address the socio the UK and the US and elected members totalling 90 personnel for a period of up to economic challenges facing the country, which of the Council from the Western European six months. sparked major protests last February and has and Other Group and the Eastern Europe In May, Bosnia and Herzegovina su ered stalled European and NATO integration. an Group. That means Australia, Lithuania severe floods following some of the heaviest Ethnic divisions between Bosniaks, Cro and Luxembourg are currently also part of rains ever recorded in the region. At least 20 ats and Serbs and secessionist rhetoric from the drafting group. The penholder rotates people died, 90,000 people were displaced and Republika Srpska, which is a direct challenge monthly and in November is Lithuania. 26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 International Court of Justice Expected Council Action (Morocco), Kirill Gevorgian (Russia) and candidates obtaining an absolute majority in The Security Council and General Assem Joan E. Donoghue (US). Two candidates— both the General Assembly and the Coun bly will hold elections for the International Donoghue (US) and Bennouna (Morocco)— cil in the first round of voting (S/PV.6651). Court of Justice (ICJ) on 6 November. Five are current members of the ICJ. (ICJ judg After holding four additional ballots, the judges will need to be elected to the ICJ, es may be re elected for up to two further fifth vacant seat remained unfilled. Abdul G. each for a term of nine years commencing terms.) Koroma (Sierra Leone) received the required on 6 February 2015. majority in the Council while Julia Sebutinde Election Process (Uganda) received the required majority in Background Article 8 of the ICJ Statute states the Gen the General Assembly. This voting pattern The ICJ consists of 15 judges elected for nine eral Assembly and Security Council shall continued on 22 November, when balloting year terms by the General Assembly and the proceed independently of one another to was suspended. It resumed on 13 December, Council. Five seats come up for election elect the members of the Court in a secret when Sebutinde was declared elected after every three years. ballot. Candidates who obtain an absolute receiving an absolute majority in both (S/ Candidates are nominated by national majority of votes (i.e. a majority of all elec PV.6682). groups represented on the Permanent Court tors, whether or not they vote or are allowed According to article 2 of the ICJ Stat of Arbitration. When making nominations, to vote) in both the General Assembly and ute, members of the Court are to be elected, members of each national group are rec the Council are elected. A candidate there “regardless of their nationality, from among ommended to consult their highest national fore must obtain 97 votes in the former and persons of high moral character, who possess court, national legal faculties and national eight votes in the latter. In the Council vote, the qualifications required in their respective schools of law. No group may nominate more there is no distinction between permanent countries for appointment to the highest judi than four persons. The names of candidates and non permanent members. cial o ces, or are juris consults of recognized are then communicated to the Secretary Each elector may vote for five candidates competence in international law.” No two General to prepare a list of nominations. on the first ballot. If the number of candi nationals from the same state can hold o ce Although there is no formal requirement dates obtaining an absolute majority is less at the same time, and once elected, a judge is for geographical distribution, article 9 of the than five on the first ballot, a second bal a delegate neither of the government of his or ICJ Statute requires representation of the lot for the remaining positions will be held her own country nor of any other state. “main forms of civilization and of the prin and balloting will continue until five candi cipal legal systems of the world”. In prac dates have obtained the required majority. If Council Dynamics tice, the Court’s composition reflects that more than the required number of candidates Permanent members of the Council have of the Security Council with the P5 always obtain an absolute majority on the same bal no legal entitlement to representation on having a judge on the bench. Currently, the lot in either organ, a new vote on all the can the ICJ. However, judges from the P5 are distribution is as follows: Africa, 3; Latin didates will be held. In the event that the usually present on the Court. This practice America and the Caribbean, 2; Asia, 3; West five candidates elected by one organ are not favours the election of Gevorgian (Russia) ern Europe and other states, 5; and Eastern the same as those elected by the other, both and Donoghue (US). Regional consider Europe, 2. The five judges whose terms are will proceed (independently) to new balloting ations are also likely to play a role, posing a to expire are nationals of Mexico, Morocco, to fill the unresolved seats. This process will challenge for candidates from the same geo New Zealand, Russia and the US. continue for three meetings when, if any posi graphical region. Based on this, it is likely tions are still not filled, the Council and the that Crawford (Australia) will be elected in Candidates General Assembly may decide to convene a the uncontested Western Europe and other In this election, nine candidates are contest conference of six members (three from each) vacancy, with Cerutti (Argentina) and Rob ing five positions. The candidates are: Susa to recommend a candidate for acceptance by inson (Jamaica) running against each other na Ruiz Cerutti (Argentina), James Richard the General Assembly and Council. for the Latin America and Caribbean seat Crawford (Australia), Sayeman Bula Bula Results are usually achieved quickly in and Bula Bula (Democratic Republic of the (Democratic Republic of the Congo), Pat the Council, but balloting in the General Congo), Arivony (Madagascar), Agatt (Mau rick Lipton Robinson (Jamaica), Eugénie Assembly can take much longer. In the last ritania) and Bennouna (Morocco) running Liliane Arivony (Madagascar), Jemal Ould regular elections held on 10 November 2011, against each other for the Africa vacancy. Agatt (Mauritania), Mohamed Bennouna four of the five vacant seats were filled with 81'2&80(176217+(,&- Security Council Letters S/2014/520 (4 August 2014) was a memorandum from the Secretary-General setting out the procedure for the ICJ elections. S/2014/521 (4 August 2014) was a list of the ICJ vacancies and the candidates nominated. S/2014/522 (4 August 2014) contained the curricula vitae of candidates nominated for the ICJ. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 27 Notable Dates for November 6HFXULW\&RXQFLO5HSRUW6WDƂ -RDQQD:HVFKOHU REPORT DUE 5(32576)25&216,'(5$7,21,1129(0%(5 5(48(67,1* 'HSXW\([HFXWLYH'LUHFWRU DOCUMENT Director of Research $PDQGD5REHUWV 17 October 6*UHSRUWRQSLUDF\RƂWKHFRDVWRI6RPDOLD 6 S/RES/2125 &RRUGLQDWLQJ(GLWRU Senior Research Analyst 27 October OPCW report on the implementation of resolution 2118 S/RES/2118 Shamala Kandiah Thompson (Syrian chemical weapons) :KDWŠVLQ%OXH(GLWRU 6HQLRU Research Analyst 31 October SG report on UNMIK (Kosovo) S/RES/1244 $VWULG)RUEHUJ5\DQ 6HQLRU5HVHDUFK$QDO\VW 31 October SG report on UNAMI (Iraq) S/RES/2169 'HYHORSPHQW2ƅFHU 9LFWRU&DVDQRYD$ERV 4 November SG report on UNMISS (South Sudan) S/RES/2155 Research Analyst 5 November SG report on the implementation of resolution 1701 S/RES/2172 Charles Cater Research Analyst (UNIFIL/Lebanon) Dahlia Morched early November High Representative’s Report on Bosnia and Herzegovina S/RES/2123 5HVHDUFK$QDO\VW Communications Coordinator 11 November SG report on Iraq/Kuwait Missing Persons and Property S/RES/2107 Paul Romita Research Analyst 12 November SG update on the assessment of UNIOGBIS (Guinea-Bissau) S/RES/2157 Eran Sthoeger S/2014/528 Research Analyst S/2014/529 Benjamin Villanti Research Analyst 18 November SG report on humanitarian access in Syria S/RES/2139 S/RES/2165 Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator 0$1'$7(6 5(/(9$17 Vladimir Sesar (;3,5( DOCUMENT Research Associate Lindiwe Knutson 12 November EUFOR in Bosnia and Herzegovina S/RES/2123 Research Assistant 18 November Authorisation of anti-piracy measures in Somalia S/RES/2125 Maritza Tenerelli Administrative Assistant 30 November UNMISS (South Sudan) S/RES/2155 Marie-Eve Loiselle Endeavor Fellow 30 November UNIOGBIS (Guinea-Bissau) S/RES/2157 Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant Security Council Report is a non- SURƃWRUJDQLVDWLRQVXSSRUWHGE\WKH Governments of Angola, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Kazakhstan, /LHFKWHQVWHLQ/LWKXDQLD/X[HPERXUJ Malaysia, New Zealand, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and Uraguay, and the Ford Foundation and John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Design Point Five, NY Security Council Report One Dag Hammarskjöld Plaza 885 2nd Ave at 48th St, 21st Floor New York NY 10017 The Security Council Report and What’s in Blue Apps are available for free at the App Store. Telephone +1 212 759 6394 )D[ +1 212 759 4038 Web securitycouncilreport.org whatsinblue.org The material in this publication is subject to copyright ownership. Material in this publication may be freely used as in the public domain. You are free to copy, distribute, or make derivative works of the work under the following conditions: you must attribute the work to Security Council Report, Inc.; you may not use this work for commercial purposes; if you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under a license identical to this one. 28 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014