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Monthly Forecast November 2014 Monthly Forecast 2 Status Update since our Overview October Forecast 4 Counter-Terrorism 5 Iraq Australia will hold the presidency of the Coun- and the chair of the PBC Guinea-Bissau con- cil in November. The country’s Foreign Minis- figuration Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar 7 Burundi ter Julie Bishop will preside over an open debate Patriota (Brazil); 8 Liberia on global eorts to counter terrorism, violent • the situation in Iraq by the Special Represen- 10 South Sudan extremism and the growing threat of foreign ter- tative Nikolay Mladenov and the UN High 12 Sudan (Darfur) rorist fighters . The Secretary-General will brief. Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Debates will be held on: Al Hussein; and 13 Somalia • Bosnia and Herzegovina , with a briefing by • the humanitarian situation in Syria , most likely 14 Guinea-Bissau High Representative Valentin Inzko; and by Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- 15 Libya • Kosovo , with a briefing by Special Representa- ian Aairs Valerie Amos. 17 Syria tive Farid Zarif. Briefings in consultations are likely on: 18 Lebanon (UNIFIL) Briefings are expected on: • destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons by • cross-cutting thematic issues in UN Policing Special Adviser Sigrid Kaag; 20 UN Policing by Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping • the work of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Com- 21 Sanctions Operations Hervé Ladsous; mittee , by its chair, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas 23 Kosovo • issues related to UN Sanctions across the dif- (Luxembourg); and 24 DPRK (North Korea) ferent sanctions regimes, by Under-Secretary- • implementation of resolution 1701 on Leba- 25 Bosnia and General for Political Aairs, Jerey Feltman; non , by Special Coordinator Derek Plumbly. Herzegovina • developments concerning ICC cases in Libya Formal sessions will be needed to adopt reso- by Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda; and lutions to renew: 27 International Court of Justice • the work of the 1540 Committee on non-pro- • the mandate of UNMISS in South Sudan ; liferation and weapons of mass destruction , • the mandate of UNIOGBIS in Guinea-Bissau ; 28 Notable Dates by its chair, Ambassador Oh Joon (Republic • counter-piracy measures for Somalia ; and of Korea). • the authorisation for the EU-led multinational Briefings, followed by consultations, are stabilisation force in Bosnia and Herzegovina . expected on: In November, the Council will also hold an • developments in Burundi , by Parfait Onanga- election (concurrently with the General Assembly) Anyanga, the head BNUB and by Ambassador for five judges of the International Court of Justice . Paul Seger (Switzerland), the chair of the PBC The president of the Council will present its Burundi configuration; annual report to the General Assembly late in • developments in Liberia , by Ladsous, and the month. Ambassador Mårten Grunditz (Sweden), The annual Council workshop with newly chair of the PBC Liberia Configuration; elected members organised by Finland is also • the Middle East , by Assistant Secretary- planned for November. General for Political Aairs Jens Anders A public wrap-up session is scheduled for the Toyberg-Frandzen; end of the month. • the work of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Com- Throughout the month members will be fol- mittee by its chair, Ambassador María Cristina lowing closely events in the Central African Perceval (Argentina); Republic, Mali, Ukraine and Yemen as well as 30 October 2014 • the situation in Guinea-Bissau and the work events related to the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org . of UNIOGBIS by its head Miguel Trovoada further meetings may be required. • For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast November 2014 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Status Update since our October Forecast Mali the report of the AU Investigation Commit- On 21 October, the Council adopted resolu- On 3 October, Council members issued a tee on the assassination of the Ngok-Dinka tion 2181, extending the mandate of the EU press statement condemning an attack on paramount chief in May 2013 to be released. operation in the CAR until 15 March 2015. MINUSMA in which nine Nigerien peace- Elnor argued that Abyei remains part of The next day, Council members were briefed keepers were killed (SC/11587) and on Sudan until a final settlement is reached. under “any other business” on recent events 7 October, another press statement con- in CAR by Special Representative Babacar demned an attack in Kidal which killed one Peacekeeping Gaye via video-teleconference. Senegalese peacekeeper (SC/11591). On On 9 October, the Council was briefed by 8 October, Under-Secretary-General for Military Advisor Lieutenant General Maq- Haiti Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous presented the sood Ahmed from the Department of Peace- On 14 October, the Security Council adopt- most recent Mali report (S/2014/692) and keeping Operations and force commanders ed resolution 2180 extending the mandate reported that MINUSMA is no longer oper- Lieutenant General Carlos Alberto dos San- of the MINUSTAH until 15 October 2015. ating in a peacekeeping environment. The tos Cruz (Brazil) of MONUSCO in the DRC, It authorized a reduction in the mission’s Foreign Minister of Mali, Abdoulaye Diop, Major General Jean Bosco Kazura (Rwanda) military component from 5,021 personnel also addressed the Council during the pub- of MINUSMA in Mali and Lieutenant Gen- to 2,370 while keeping the police contingent lic session (S/PV.7274). On 17 October, the eral Iqbal Singh Singha (India) of UND- unchanged at 2,601 as recommended by the Council welcomed the scheduled resumption OF in the Golan Heights. They presented, Secretary-General in his August report to the on 19 October of the inter-Malian negotia- respectively, on the concept and implica- Council (S/2014/617). While the resolution tion process in Algiers (SC/11604). tions of the protection of civilians, expecta- was adopted by consensus, Argentina and tions from military contingents in a changed Chile gave an explanation of vote, expressing Ukraine security environment and accomplishment of regret that they had not been in a position to On 3 October, Council members issued a traditional mandates in a changed politico- co-sponsor the resolution as their concerns press statement condemning the killing of an military environment (S/PV.7275). about the recommended accelerated draw- ICRC sta member in Ukraine (SC/11588). down had not been fully taken into account. On 24 October, the Council was briefed Yemen Guatemala and Ecuador also took the floor by Assistant Secretary-General for Political Council members issued a press statement as countries contributing troops to MINUS- Aairs Oscar Fernandez-Taranco and Assis- on 10 October condemning a bomb attack in TAH to express similar concerns, emphasising tant Secretary-General for Human Rights, Sana’a that killed at least 47 people, as well as that decisions about peacekeeping operations Ivan Šimonović on the political and human condemning attacks against Yemeni security must take the opinions of troop contributing rights situation in Ukraine, respectively (S/ forces on 8 and 9 October (SC/11595). On countries into account (S/PV.7277). PV.7287). 13 October, Special Adviser Jamal Benomar briefed Council members in consultations. Ebola Sudan-South Sudan Afterwards, in elements to the press, Coun- On 14 October, the Council was briefed on On 7 October, Assistant-Secretary-General cil members expressed their determination the Ebola epidemic in West Africa by Special for Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet briefed to address increasing terrorist attacks by Al- Representative Anthony Banbury, the head Council members in consultations on the Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, urged imple- of the UN Mission for Ebola Emergency latest UNISFA report (S/2014/709). Mulet mentation of the national peace and partner- Response (UNMEER), Under-Secretary- said unilateral actions by the parties have ship agreement, welcomed Khalid Bahah’s General for Peacekeeping Hervé Ladsous not been helpful and referred to the Ngok- nomination as prime minister and agreed to and Assistant Secretary-General for Politi- Dinka’s decision to establish a committee to consider urgently evidence to possibly sanc- cal Aairs Tayé-Brook Zerihoun (S/PV.7279). lobby for international support for October tion spoilers. The next day, Council members issued a press 2013 referendum, which was not recognised statement reiterating the Council’s determi- by Sudan, but during which the Ngok-Dinka Central African Republic nation that the Ebola outbreak constituted a voted overwhelmingly to join South Sudan. On 10 October, Council members issued a threat to international peace and security and Additionally, he mentioned the instability press statement (SC/11596), condemning requested that UN peacekeeping operations that could be caused by Sudan’s intention to an attack against a MINUSCA convoy in and political missions in West Africa closely include Abyei among the areas that will par- Bangui, in which one peacekeeper was killed collaborate with UNMEER (SC/11602). ticipate in the country’s 2015 national elec- and several others injured. Council mem- tions. The Council met again on 14 October bers expressed concern about the upsurge Golan Heights (UNDOF) to adopt resolution 2179 extending UNIS- of violence and strongly condemned all On 20 October, Assistant Secretary-Gener- FA’s mandate until
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