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GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM Lecture Series 2018 - 2019 www.globalstrategyforum.org Lord Lothian, Mr. Radek Sikorski and Sir Malcolm Rifkind Sir John Chilcot and Lord Lothian Mr. James Barr and Lord Lothian Professor Charles Garraway and Lord Lothian Lord Lothian and Mr. Ben Macintyre Dr. Kori Schake and Lord Lothian Mr. Matthew Rycroft and Lord Lothian Lord Lothian and Mr. Gordon Corera www.globalstrategyforum.org GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM Lecture Series 2018 - 2019 3 www.globalstrategyforum.org NOTES 4 www.globalstrategyforum.org PRESIDENT’S FOREWORD It gives me great pleasure to introduce this, the thirteenth edition of GSF’s annual lecture publication. In these pages you will once again find a full record of the extensive events programme which we delivered during the course of our 2018-2019 series. Topics and regions predictably included Brexit, China, Russia, the Middle East and the US, as well the big global issues of the day: climate change, terrorism, globalisation, cybersecurity. But the breadth and range of countries, region and topics covered was striking, from Brazil to Yemen, and from international development and the Commonwealth to the return of great power rivalry, attracting record audiences along the way. Unsurprisingly, much focus and political capital has continued to lie with the Brexit process, which has dominated the public discourse. But in GSF debates throughout the year on the UK’s role in the world, I observed a clear desire – demand, even - for substance to be given to the concept of ‘Global Britain’ and a firm eschewal of any reduction in our engagement in world events. During this period of change and uncertainty in the UK and beyond, the answers to the many complicated questions of policy and strategy facing us remain elusive, but GSF’s mandate requires us to continue to strive to seek them. We remain committed to the principle of frank and open exchanges. Opinion and expertise from all quarters is welcome at GSF, where the policymaking value of fresh thinking and cognitive diversity combined with seasoned expertise and accumulated wisdom has long been recognised. Our modus operandi is the rigorous pursuit of discussion, debate and analysis in a process which looks far beyond knee-jerk or hasty responses to events. Our goal is to contribute to the articulation of a clear vision for Britain which defines and strengthens our place in the world, a vision grounded in reality and underpinned by a coherent strategy able to anticipate and address future challenges. Never has this need been more urgent, I believe, and it will underlie our events programme over the next year. One of the key themes will be to re-examine the meaning of ‘Global Britain’ in the totally changed political landscape. As ever, I am keen to convey my sincere thanks to all those who contribute to GSF in so many ways: our annual cohort of eminent and highly knowledgeable speakers, whose willingness, year on year, to share their expertise never fails to amaze me; our loyal and active membership, whose thoughtful and engaged participation is essential to the success of our events; and finally, our Advisory Board members, a list of whom can be found at the back of this publication. GSF’s debt of gratitude to them is immense: our achievements and success simply would not be possible without their steadfast commitment, unfaltering support and unparalleled leadership. 5 www.globalstrategyforum.org I eagerly anticipate our 2019-2020 events programme, and I am confident we will equal, indeed surpass, the successes of this year and that GSF will remain an indispensable part of the foreign, defence, and security policy conversation in London and beyond. I look forward both to what the coming months will bring and to meeting GSF members, old and new, during the course of the year. Johan Eliasch President, Global Strategy Forum October 2019 6 www.globalstrategyforum.org GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM LEADERSHIP President Johan Eliasch is the President of Global Strategy Forum and the former Special Representative of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He is Chairman and CEO of HEAD (the global sporting goods group), Chairman of Aman Resorts, Equity Partners, London Films and Co-Chairman of Cool Earth. He is an advisory board member of the All- Party Parliamentary Group for the Polar Regions, Brasilinvest, Societe du Louvre, Capstar, the Centre for Social Justice, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Foundation for Renewable Energy and Environment and a member of the Mayor of Rome’s and Jerusalem’s International Business Advisory Councils. He is a Patron of Stockholm University. He is the Founder of the Rainforest Trust which is conserving 400,000 acres of rainforest in the Amazonas. He was part of the Conservative Shadow Foreign Office team as Special Advisor on European Affairs (1999-2003) and responsible for foreign relations (2003-2005). He was Conservative Party Deputy Treasurer (2003-2007). He was a member of the Austrian President's delegation of State for Trade and Industry (1996-2006). He was chairman of the Young Conservatives Party in Djursholm, Sweden (1979–1982). He did military service in Sweden in a specialist unit, the Royal Life Guard (K1). Chairman The Most Hon the Marquis of Lothian PC QC DL is the Chairman of Global Strategy Forum. Lord Lothian was first elected to Parliament as Michael Ancram in 1974. His political career included four years as the Political Minister in Northern Ireland responsible for the opening engagements with the IRA which eventually led to the Good Friday Agreement, Chairman of the Conservative Party for three years, and four years as Shadow Foreign Secretary and Deputy Leader of the Opposition. He continues to be involved in international conflict resolution. He co-founded Global Strategy Forum in 2006 and is its Chairman. He was appointed to the House of Lords as a life peer in October 2010. He was first appointed a member of the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament in 2005 and re-appointed in 2010, 2015 and 2017. Director Jacqueline Jinks is the Director of Global Strategy Forum. She joined GSF as Research Director in June 2006 and became the Director in February 2008. From 1997-2005, she was Political Secretary and speechwriter to Lord Moynihan, a former Conservative Senior Spokesman on Foreign Affairs in the House of Lords. She worked for the Rt Hon. Michael Howard QC MP and the Rt Hon. Francis Maude MP, during their respective tenures as Shadow Foreign Secretary. Prior to that, she worked for the Democratic National Committee (1996-1997) and CMA Consultants (1994-1996). 7 www.globalstrategyforum.org Treasurer Adrian de Ferranti was the founder of Ferranti, an investment vehicle for engineering and technology companies. He was the founder and/or chairman of Tantus PLC, Cambridge Computer Graphics, Chelford PLC, and PTG. He had an early career at European Banking Company, Murray Johnstone, followed by Montgomery Securities in the US. He is currently the chairman, director or investor in NEST, SameWave, SMB, Updata, Ziani’s, Terrascope Ltd, Ferranti Farming, and Small Business Bureau. He was the chairman and a trustee of the Royal Institution of Great Britain from 2007-2010. From 2007-2013 he was chairman of the Foundation at Heriot Watt University. He was also a treasurer of the Conservative Party from 1991-2004. 8 www.globalstrategyforum.org ABOUT GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM was founded by Lord Lothian (then The Rt Hon. Michael Ancram MP) and Johan Eliasch in 2006 to generate open debate and discussion on key foreign affairs, defence and international security issues. As an independent, non-party political, non-ideological organisation, GSF provides a platform to explore some of the more challenging and contentious aspects of UK foreign policy and to stimulate imaginative ideas and innovative thinking in a rapidly changing global landscape. In accordance with our founding remit, we aim to bring together those with a deep interest in international affairs and to offer them the opportunity to exchange opinions and ideas, and to engage in informed debate. Through our publications and our website, we enable their expertise to be widely disseminated. GSF’s core activity consists of a regular lunchtime lecture and debate series on topical issues. For more in-depth discussion of specific topics, we host half-day seminars. We also hold small roundtable lunches and dinners on key issues of the day. Separately, alongside our annual compendium of lectures and the publication of the proceedings of our seminars, we publish an occasional series of monographs as well as collections of essays and articles by distinguished experts. We are very fortunate to be supported by an active and committed Advisory Board comprising of foreign and defence policy practitioners of the highest calibre. In 2018-2019, we hosted a total of 26 events, comprising seventeen lectures, five debates, three seminars, and one research launch. The following speakers addressed our lecture series: Mr. Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s Minister of Defence (2005-2007), Foreign Minister (2007-2014), and Speaker of Parliament (2014-2015); The Rt Hon. Sir John Chilcot GCB PC Hon FBA, Chairman, The Iraq Inquiry (2009-2016), Permanent Under-Secretary of State, Northern Ireland Office (1990-1997), and GSF Advisory Board member; Mr. James Barr, Visiting Fellow, King's College London, and author of Lords Of The Desert; Professor Charles Garraway CBE, Fellow at the Human Rights Centre, University of Essex, and Member of the UN Group of Eminent Experts for Yemen; Mr. Ben Macintyre, Columnist and Associate Editor, The Times, and author of The Spy And The Traitor; Professor Yoon Young-kwan, Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University, and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Republic of Korea (2003-2004); Dr.
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