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Review2009.Pdf ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2009 United Nations ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN TRANSPORT IN ASIA AND THE PACIFIC 2009 United Nations New York, 2009 ST/ESCAP/2566 ESCAP WORKS TOWARDS REDUCING POVERTY AND MANAGING GLOBALIZATION Copyright © United Nations 2009 All rights reserved Manufactured in Thailand Acknowledgements: This document was prepared by the Transport Policy and Tourism Section with inputs from across the Transport and Tourism Division of ESCAP. Project data was graciously provided by Thomson Project Finance International and Thomson SDC Platinum. Data inputs were contracted from Meyrick and Associates Pty., Limited. The chapter on air transport was graciously provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. The term “ESCAP region” is used in the present document to include Afghanistan; American Samoa; Armenia; Australia; Azerbaijan; Bangladesh; Bhutan; Brunei Darussalam; Cambodia; China; Cook Islands; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Fiji; French Polynesia; Georgia; Guam; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Islamic Republic of Iran; Japan; Kazakhstan; Kiribati; Kyrgyzstan; Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Macao, China; Malaysia; Maldives; Marshall Islands; Micronesia (Federated States of); Mongolia; Myanmar; Nauru; Nepal; New Caledonia; New Zealand; Niue; Northern Mariana Islands; Pakistan; Palau; Papua New Guinea; Philippines; Republic of Korea; Russian Federation; Samoa; Singapore; Solomon Islands; Sri Lanka; Tajikistan; Thailand; Timor-Leste; Tonga; Turkey; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Uzbekistan; Vanuatu; and Viet Nam. The term “developing ESCAP region” excludes Australia, Japan and New Zealand. The term “Central Asia” in this publication refers to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. On 1 July 1997, Hong Kong became Hong Kong, China. Mention of "Hong Kong" in the text refers to a date prior to 1 July 1997. On 20 December 1999, Macau became Macao, China. Mention of “Macau” in the text refers to a date prior to 20 December 1999. The term “billion” signifies a thousand million. Unless otherwise stated, current United States dollars have been used throughout. This publication has been issued without formal editing. 3 CONTENTS Page PART ONE: THE CHALLENGE FOR TRANSPORT…………………………………… 1 I. MEETING THE NEEDS OF TRADE………………………………….…………....... 3 A. Economic growth in the world……………………….………............................... 3 B. Economic growth in the ESCAP Region.……………….……….......................... 4 C. Intraregional and interregional trends in merchandise trade……….……….......... 9 II. MEETING THE NEED FOR PERSONAL MOBILITY……………………..….......... 23 A. World and regional population growth and distribution……………………........ 23 B. Trends in urbanization………………………………………………………........ 27 C. Growth of mega-cities 28 D. Demographic change………………………………………………………........... 30 III. MEETING THE NEEDS OF THE ENVIRONMENT………………………..….......... 35 A. Global environmental considerations …………………………...…….................. 35 B. Policies and initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 37 C. Local environmental considerations………………………………………........... 38 D. Air pollution abatement strategies: policies and initiatives…................................ 41 IV. MEETING THE NEED FOR SAFE ROADS…………………………………………. 51 A. Introduction………………………………………………………………………. 51 B. Ministerial Declaration on Improving Road Safety in Asia and the Pacific……... 51 C. Data and trends in road crashes in the ESCAP region…………………………… 54 D. Key causes of road crashes……………………………………………………… 60 E. National road safety targets………………………………………………………. 62 F. Case studies: road safety initiatives in China, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia 64 and Viet Nam…………………………………………………………………….. V. MEETING THE NEEDS OF THE POOR…………………………………………….. 69 A. Transport and poverty reduction…………………………………………..……... 70 B. Rural poverty and transport…………………………………………..........……... 70 C. Urban poverty and transport……………………………………………..………. 72 D. Infrastructure and “inclusive development”……..………………………..……... 74 PART TWO: DEVELOPMENTS IN INFRASTRUCTURE…………………..…………... 77 VI. CHANGING DELIVERY MECHANISMS……………………………..…….……… 79 A. Background and infrastructure investment needs………………..………………. 79 B. Private sector financing of transport infrastructure……..………………………... 79 C. Institutions to facilitate private sector investment……………………………….. 88 VII. ROADS AND ROAD TRANSPORT…………………………………..………...…… 97 A. Asian Highway Network…………………………………………...……………. 97 B. Road networks in Asia and the Pacific.………..………………………………… 104 C. Selected road and highway investment projects……………………..…….…….. 111 VIII. RAILWAY TRANSPORT……………………………………………...………..……. 117 A. Trends in railway traffic……………………………………………...…………... 117 B. Rail systems growth……………………………..……………………………….. 121 C. Network development…………….………………………………..…………….. 123 IX. SHIPPING…………………………………………………………..…………...…….. 141 A. Registered merchant fleet capacities…………………………..…………………. 141 B. Vessels by country of domicile…………………………………..………………. 143 C. Shipbuilding………………………………………………………..…………….. 144 D. Trends in container slot capacity and ship size…………………..………………. 144 E. Trends in bulk shipping fleet capacities…………………………..….…………... 146 F. Trends in the average age of merchant fleets……………………...……………... 147 G. Productivity trends in the world merchant shipping fleet…………..……………. 148 H. Supply-side developments in world container shipping……………..…………... 149 X. PORTS…………………………………………………………………….……............ 151 A. Trends in container port throughput………………………………..……………. 151 B. Selected port infrastructure projects………………………………..…….……… 155 XI. URBAN TRANSPORT…………………………………………………..……..……... 161 A. Introduction…………………………………………………………..…………... 161 B. Motorization and its consequences for cities……………………………..……… 161 C. Public transport…………………………………………………………………... 164 D. Para-transit……………………………………………………..…….…………... 168 E. Non-motorized transport…………………………………………..……………... 169 F. Transport in Dhaka, Hanoi and Bangkok………………………………………… 170 XII. AIR TRANSPORT…………………………………………………..……..……...…... 173 A. Airlines…………………………………………………………..…………...…... 173 B. Airports and air navigation services………………………………..…………...... 186 C. Aviation Safety and Security ………………………………………..…………... 191 D. Medical issues related to aviation ……………………………………………...... 193 E. Aviation Environmental Protection …………………………………………....... 194 PART THREE: TRADE AGREEMENTS, TRANSPORT REGIONALISM AND INTERMODAL SYSTEMS………………..………..……..……….............. 197 XIII. TRADE AGREEMENTS…..…….....…………………………………………………. 199 A. GATT/WTO system……………………………………………..……………….. 199 B. General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS)……………….……….……... 199 C. Bilateral and regional trade agreements in the ESCAP region………….……….. 201 D. Examples: ASEAN+3, BIMP-EAGA, SCO……………………………………... 207 XIV. TRANSPORT REGIONALISM…………….………………….……………………... 211 A. Overview of regional cooperation for transport in Asia……………...………….. 211 B. Examples of regional cooperation agreements……………………..……………. 215 XV. INTERMODAL TRANSPORT…………………...…….......................................……. 223 A. Busan Ministerial Declaration……….………………………………….……….. 223 B. Different types of transport logistics and distribution centres………………...…. 224 C. Dry ports in Asia and the Pacific………..……………………………………….. 225 D. Logistics Centres and Distriparks in the ESCAP Region……………..…….…… 227 E. Free Trade Zones………………………………………………………………… 230 F. Intermodal systems development in selected ESCAP countries…………………. 231 ANNEX: STATISTICAL NOTE………………………...…..….…………………………….. 237 A. Aggregation………………………………………………………..……………... 237 B. Growth rates………………………………………………………..…………….. 238 Part One --- I. Meeting the need for trade 1 PART ONE: THE CHALLENGE FOR TRANSPORT Part One --- I. Meeting the need for trade 3 I. MEETING THE NEEDS OF TRADE This chapter provides a general background on the recent developments and trends in the economic and trade growth of the world and the ESCAP region. Economic growth and developments in trade and developments in transport — particularly developments in freight transport — are closely related. Rapid increases in trade, and changes in the geographic and commodity structure of trade, require expansion and adaptation of transport infrastructure facilities and services. On the other hand, inadequate transport infrastructure capacity, or poor service levels, may well hinder socio-economic development. Conversely, cyclical downturns in economic growth are usually reflected in a slowdown in trade growth, and in extreme cases with a fall in trade volumes. As it is difficult to adjust capacity in the transport industries rapidly, this can have severe consequences for the financial performance, and even for the viability, of transport enterprises. A. Economic growth in the world In the period immediately prior to the global financial crisis, the world had enjoyed a period of exceptionally strong economic growth. Despite a significant slowdown in 2001, between 2000 and 2007, world gross domestic
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