Scientific and Technical Intelligence of the Polaroid Corporation
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The Intelligencer Association of Former Intelligence Officers Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies From AFIO's The Volume 20 • Number 3 • $15.00 single copy price Spring/Summer 2014 Intelligencer 7700 Leesburg Pike, Suite 324 Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies Falls Church, Virginia 22043 Web: www.afio.com , E-mail: [email protected] Volume 20 • Number 3 • $15 single copy price Spring/Summer 2014 ©2014, AFIO INTELLIGENGCCE IN THE MIDEAST A Memoir The Spreading Fires of Extremism CIA, Syria, and the SVR • Management of Advanced Cryptographic Systems • Doctor Zhivagoo and the Iron Curtain • Political Stability by Country • NOIRR - A Proposal • Guide to the Study of Intelligenceee: Part 8 — WWI Intelligence • S&T Intelligence • Weapons of Mass Destruction • Law Enforcement Intelligence ong before I joined CIA its analysts had been • Terrorism Analysis • Chapters and National Events • Obituaries of Note • Professional Readings • Film & Book Reviews • Forthcoming Books unable to answer President Eisenhower’s crit- Lical “bomber and missile gap” questions. The president called in the nation’s leading scientists for Guide to the Study of Intelligence advice on what technology might be brought to bear on the issues. This advisory group became known as the “Land Panel” after one the group’s more innovative and active members, Edwin “Den” H. Land, president Scientific and Technical Intelligence of the Polaroid Corporation. The panel quickly came up with solutions to the “bomber and missile gap” and A Memoir by a S&T Intelligence Officer other intelligence questions as well: 1) Get spies inside the Soviet Union, 2) Use high-altitude aerial reconnais- sance to see what missiles and bombers the Soviets by S. Eugene Poteat, LLD(Hon.) have, and 3) begin the development of reconnaissance satellites since aerial reconnaissance will eventually be vulnerable to improving Soviet antiaircraft missile defenses. Surprisingly, Eisenhower directed the CIA EDITOR’S INTRODUCTION to take the lead in developing and operating both the U-2 aerial reconnaissance and the reconnaissance The first Soviet atomic bomb test on 29 satellite efforts with support from the Air Force. Then August 1949 caught the US by surprise. Aided Director of Central Intelligence Allen Dulles objected, by a long term and successful espionage saying the CIA was not in the business of developing operation against the Manhattan Project, such high-technology systems. Eisenhower’s response the detonation highlighted the lack of US was, “Well, you are in that business now, because it intelligence on the USSR. The next year, UN has to be done in secret.”1 forces in Korea began encountering advanced I was recruited into the CIA from Cape Canaveral, Soviet-made fighters (MIG-15, some flown Florida in 1959 and initially underwent the requisite sub rosa by Russian pilots) that were superior indoctrination into the principals of intelligence and to America’s aircraft. Clearly the US needed espionage. Contrary to the widely held perception more and better intelligence about its adver- that intelligence is the purloining of secret informa- saries and their weapons capabilities in order tion from foreign countries, which is then used for to develop appropriate countermeasures and advantage in wartime and as an aid to diplomacy, its own weapons systems. Existing SIGINT and the catching of foreign spies, or counterintelli- and technical sensors proved inadequate, gence, I learned that intelligence serves a number of calling for a new generation of scientific other purposes, such as technology development in and technical collection systems to support support of other intelligence programs, support to the development of ever more sophisticated US countermeasures and advanced weapons 1. The Land Panel findings were approved by President Eisen- systems. hower in November 1954. The U-2 flew its first mission over the USSR on July 4, 1956 and continued until the May 1, 1960 shoot- The CIA took the lead in the development down of Francis Gary Powers. As a testament to the developers of new, highly sophisticated approaches to of the U-2 it is still in service with the US Air Force and NASA scientific and technical intelligence collec- today. The first successful photographic reconnaissance satellite mission occurred on August 10, 1960. See Richard Garwin, CO- tion. While much of what CIA undertook RONA: America’s First Reconnaissance Satellite System. A View from the remains cloaked behind a curtain of secrecy, Land Panel, Notes for Presentation George Washington University, the following reminiscences of a senior CIA May 23, 1995, at http://www.fas.org/rlg/052295CRNA%20CORO- NA%201-7.pdf ; Gregory Pedlow and Donald Welzenbach, The scientific and technical intelligence officer CIA and the U2 Program, 1998, at https://www.cia.gov/library/cen- gives insight into how the CIA responded to ter-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/ the challenge. the-cia-and-the-u-2-program-1954-1974/; and David Robarge, Arch- angel: CIA’s Supersonic A-12 Reconnaissance Aircraft, 2012, at https:// www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/ books-and-monographs/a-12/index.html. Spring/Summer 2014 Intelligencer: Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies Page 41 treaty negotiations and monitoring, arms control, The Intelligence Community had no hard infor- and more. Until the recent scholarly literature on the mation about the transmitter power of Soviet radars, subject, published materials on intelligence primarily their receiver sensitivity, the spatial coverage of their focused on intelligence disasters, such as the Bay of beams, or even how widespread they were deployed, Pigs or the shoot-down of Gary Powers’ U-2 over the much less anything about their counter stealth capa- Soviet city of Sverdlovsk. The story of American intel- bilities. The CIA’s Clandestine Service could offer no ligence is much fuller. Recounted here are some of the help since it did not have a single case officer inside challenges and successes CIA faced to answer critical the Soviet Union at the time.4 national security questions. American electronic intelligence, or ELINT, Americans were shocked when Khrushchev had virtually nothing to offer about Soviet radar publicly humiliated President Eisenhower over the capabilities against stealth. The only option seemed U-2 affair. Not widely known was that the U-2’s photo- to fall back on making the best possible intelligence graphs had disproved Khrushchev’s boast that Russian estimate with regard to Soviet radar capabilities for missiles were “being cranked out like sausages.” that dealing with a high and fast airplane with a very small American fears of a severe bomber and ballistic missile radar cross section. In the words of other intelligence gap with the Soviets were unfounded, or that its intel- veterans, ‘Estimating is what you do when you don’t ligence was a key ingredient in American diplomacy know and cannot find out.’ that permitted President Kennedy to call Khrushchev’s But there were several problems with the Intel- bluffs during the Berlin crisis of 1961 and the Cuban ligence Community’s estimates. There was often missile crisis of 1962. insufficient information available to produce even At the time of the U-2 shoot-down, the CIA already a guess, much less a reasonable estimate, on such was well along in developing the U-2’s replacement, the esoteric topics as a radar’s ability to detect stealthy A-11 OXCART reconnaissance aircraft, at Lockheed’s aircraft. When available, COMINT and photography Skunk Works in Burbank, California. The OXCART were considered the most credible sources of relevant was to fly at over 90,000 feet at Mach 3.3.2 The CIA intelligence, and provided the bulk of the technical and Air Force jointly had the CORONA photographic contributions to National Intelligence estimates satellite well under way in a parallel development that (NIEs). ELINT’s contribution was virtually nil, and would eventually replace all aircraft over-flights of the intelligence analysts considered it next to useless. One Soviet Union. prominent CIA operations officer said that his Clan- Concerns about the vulnerability of the yet-to- destine Service considered ELINT the only five-letter fly OXCART to the Soviet air defense radar network cuss word, that he viewed ELINT as worthless, and were the basis for the most sensitive aspect of the that only his agents could be relied on for worthwhile project. The OXCART was to be invisible to the Soviet information. He was right in that ELINT provided radars—the first-ever stealth aircraft.3 But how small little information about Soviet radars other than their a radar target was stealthy enough? That depended on identification and general location—even when they how good the Soviet air defense radars were. But for were within line-of-sight of our ELINT receivers. Most policy makers there were more questions about the Soviet radars, however, were well beyond the line-of- Soviet air defense radars than there were answers. sight of ELINT. President Eisenhower, having been badly burned over This was the scene when I joined the CIA’s Office the U-2 incident, nonetheless endorsed continued of Scientific Intelligence as a new engineer. I was soon development of OXCART, but made it clear that there cleared into the OXCART project and into its stealth would be no over flights of the Soviet Union unless the aspect. The OXCART mission planners were especially CIA could prove, absolutely, that it would be invisible concerned about just how widespread the Soviet early to their air defense radars. warning radars were and where they were located. It seemed impossible, however, to determine the 2. The original aircraft was designated the A-11 and later the number, exact location, or any other technical infor- A-12. It would become the predecessor to the Air Force’s bet- mation on those radars.