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University of Southampton Research Repository University of Southampton Research Repository Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis and, where applicable, any accompanying data are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non-commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis and the accompanying data cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content of the thesis and accompanying research data (where applicable) must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holder/s. When referring to this thesis and any accompanying data, full bibliographic details must be given, e.g.: Ardron, J.A. 2020. Good governance of deep-seabed mining: transparency and the monitoring of environmental harm. University of Southampton, Faculty of Ocean and Earth Science, Graduate School of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (GSNOCS), PhD Thesis, 196pp. University of Southampton Faculty of Ocean and Earth Science Graduate School of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (GSNOCS) Good governance of deep-seabed mining: transparency and the monitoring of environmental harm by Jeffrey Allan Ardron ORCID ID 0000-0003-1326-0031 Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy September 2020 University of Southampton Abstract Faculty of Ocean and Earth Science Graduate School of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (GSNOCS) Thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Good governance of deep-seabed mining: transparency and the monitoring of environmental harm by Jeffrey Allan Ardron This thesis considers the good environmental governance of deep-seabed mining (DSM), with a focus on the seabed ‘Area’ beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ). DSM in ABNJ has not yet begun, due in part to a lack of internationally agreed upon regulations. Shortly after this thesis research began, however, the International Seabed Authority (ISA) began consultations and drafting of its exploitation regulations, making this research particularly timely. Herein, two themes run throughout: i) transparency and ii) statistically robust monitoring of environmental impacts. For each of these themes, the research presented here suggests that there is considerable room for the ISA to improve its practices. For example, it is currently much less transparent than bodies managing international fisheries (Chapter 2). Furthermore, its practices largely do not meet the expectations contained in recognised standards for terrestrial mining and other related sectors (Chapter 3). Regarding the monitoring of environmental impacts, the ISA calls for statistical robustness. However, it currently lacks guidance on how such robustness should be assessed and reported upon. Mortality modelling conducted here (Chapter 4), using data from the Clarion- Clipperton Zone, suggests that impacts on benthic megafauna from neighbouring polymetallic nodule mining operations could be difficult to detect until it is ‘too late’; i.e. only after serious harm has already occurred. To be able to detect early warnings of possible serious environmental harm, monitoring design will need to take into account increased statistical power from the outset, which will require large sample areas (containing 500-750 individuals) and adequate replication ( ≥5 sites) in order to be able to rule out ‘false negatives’; i.e. type II errors. The thesis contains 45 recommendations, which if implemented by the ISA would improve the likelihood of statistically robust environmental monitoring and informed decision making. Additionally, in Chapter 5 (Epilogue), three simply stated, overarching good practices are put forward, not only for the ISA, but for DSM contractors and researchers alike: i) ensure DSM environmental data are readily available; ii) establish robust statistical practices in the analysis of environmental data; and iii) be inclusive when considering the results of environmental data analyses. Table of Contents Table of Contents Table of Contents .......................................................................................................... i Table of Tables ............................................................................................................ vii Table of Figures ............................................................................................................ix Research Thesis: Declaration of Authorship ..................................................................xi Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... xii Definitions and Abbreviations ...................................................................................... xv Chapter 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Abstract ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Brief context ............................................................................................................... 1 1.3 A brief history of deep-seabed mining interest ......................................................... 3 1.4 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea .................................................... 6 1.5 The International Seabed Authority ........................................................................... 7 1.5.1 The legally dormant years: 1982-1994 .............................................................. 7 1.5.2 ISA operations .................................................................................................... 8 1.6 Good governance of natural resources: lessons learned from national jurisdictions .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.6.1 Natural resource problems and good governance .......................................... 12 1.6.2 Developing states and DSM ............................................................................. 13 1.6.3 Nautilus Minerals Inc.: a case study ................................................................. 14 1.7 Research question .................................................................................................... 17 1.8 Key definitions and commentary ............................................................................. 17 1.8.1 Deep-seabed mining ........................................................................................ 17 1.8.2 Policy-science elements ................................................................................... 18 1.8.3 Good governance ............................................................................................. 18 1.8.4 Serious harm .................................................................................................... 19 1.9 The chapters ahead .................................................................................................. 22 Chapter 2 Transparency in the operations of the International Seabed Authority: an initial assessment ..................................................................................... 25 i Table of Contents 2.1 Abstract .................................................................................................................... 25 2.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 26 2.3 Methods ................................................................................................................... 28 2.4 Results ...................................................................................................................... 29 2.4.1 Availability of data and basic information ....................................................... 29 2.4.2 Participation in decision-making ..................................................................... 30 2.4.3 Access to outcomes ......................................................................................... 32 2.4.4 Two supplementary questions ........................................................................ 35 2.5 Discussion................................................................................................................. 36 2.6 Recommendations ................................................................................................... 40 2.6.1 Availability of data and basic information ....................................................... 40 2.6.2 Participation in decision-making ..................................................................... 41 2.6.3 Access to outcomes and to justice .................................................................. 41 2.6.4 Contractual and financial transparency ........................................................... 42 2.7 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 42 Chapter 3 Incorporating transparency into the governance of deep-seabed mining in the Area beyond national jurisdiction ....................................................... 43 3.1 Abstract .................................................................................................................... 43 3.2 Introduction ............................................................................................................
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