HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY FALL 2019 NO. 4 THE HOOVER INSTITUTION • STANFORD UNIVERSITY The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace was established at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, a member of Stanford’s pioneer graduating class of 1895 and the thirty-first president of the United States. Created as a library and repository of documents, the Institution approaches its centennial with a dual identity: an active public policy research center and an internationally recognized library and archives. The Institution’s overarching goals are to: » Understand the causes and consequences of economic, political, and social change » Analyze the eects of government actions and public policies » Use reasoned argument and intellectual rigor to generate ideas that nurture the formation of public policy and benefit society Herbert Hoover’s 1959 statement to the Board of Trustees of Stanford University continues to guide and define the Institution’s mission in the twenty-first century: This Institution supports the Constitution of the United States, its Bill of Rights, and its method of representative government. Both our social and economic systems are based on private enterprise, from which springs initiative and ingenuity. Ours is a system where the Federal Government should undertake no governmental, social, or economic action, except where local government, or the people, cannot undertake it for themselves. The overall mission of this Institution is, from its records, to recall the voice of experience against the making of war, and by the study of these records and their publication to recall man’s endeavors to make and preserve peace, and to sustain for America the safeguards of the American way of life. This Institution is not, and must not be, a mere library. But with these purposes as its goal, the Institution itself must constantly and dynamically point the road to peace, to personal freedom, and to the safeguards of the American system. By collecting knowledge and generating ideas, the Hoover Institution seeks to improve the human condition with ideas that promote opportunity and prosperity, limit government intrusion into the lives of individuals, and secure and safeguard peace for all. HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY FALL 2019 • HOOVERDIGEST.ORG THE HOOVER INSTITUTION STANFORD UNIVERSITY HOOVER DIGEST RESEARCH + OPINION ON PUBLIC POLICY FALL 2019 • HOOVERDIGEST.ORG The Hoover Digest explores politics, economics, and history, guided by the HOOVER scholars and researchers of the Hoover Institution, the public policy research DIGEST center at Stanford University. The opinions expressed in the Hoover Digest are those of the authors and PETER ROBINSON Editor do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, or their supporters. As a journal for the work of the scholars and CHARLES LINDSEY researchers affiliated with the Hoover Institution, the Hoover Digest does not Managing Editor accept unsolicited manuscripts. BARBARA ARELLANO The Hoover Digest (ISSN 1088-5161) is published quarterly by the Hoover Senior Publications Manager, Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, 434 Galvez Mall, Stanford University, Hoover Institution Press Stanford CA 94305-6003. Periodicals Postage Paid at Palo Alto CA and additional mailing offices. HOOVER POSTMASTER: Send address changes to the Hoover Digest, Hoover Press, 434 Galvez Mall, Stanford University, Stanford CA 94305-6003. INSTITUTION © 2019 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University THOMAS F. STEPHENSON Chair, Board of Overseers CONTACT INFORMATION SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION Comments and suggestions: $30 a year to US and Canada SUSAN R. McCAW Vice Chairs, Board of Overseers [email protected] (international rates higher). (650) 723-1471 http://hvr.co/subscribe THOMAS W. GILLIGAN Tad and Dianne Taube Director Reprints: Phone: (877) 705-1878 [email protected] (toll free in US, Canada) ERIC WAKIN (650) 498-7880 or (773) 753-3347 (international) Deputy Director, Robert H. Malott Director Write: Hoover Digest, of Library & Archives Subscription Fulfillment, PO Box 37005, Chicago, IL 60637 ASSOCIATE DIRECTORS ON THE COVER CHRISTOPHER S. DAUER Immediately after marrying her college DENISE ELSON sweetheart in 1899, Lou Henry Hoover (1874– MICHAEL FRANC 1944) sailed with him to China. There Her- JOSHUA RAUH bert and Lou Henry Hoover traveled around COLIN STEWART remote and sometimes dangerous lands on ERYN WITCHER TILLMAN mining business. The future first lady learned (Bechtel Director of Public Aairs) Chinese during the Hoovers’ sojourn there, ASSISTANT and to date is the only presidential spouse to DIRECTORS have learned an Asian language. This Qing dynasty vase, made in 1662–1722 during the SHANA FARLEY Kangxi period, is among her collections kept MARY GINGELL JEFFREY M. JONES at the Hoover Institution. SARA MYERS CHARNETTE RICHARD KAREN WEISS VISIT HOOVER INSTITUTION ONLINE | www.hoover.org FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA DOWNLOAD OUR APP TWITTER @HooverInst Stay up to date on the latest FACEBOOK www.facebook.com/HooverInstStanford analysis, commentary, and news YOUTUBE www.youtube.com/HooverInstitution from the Hoover Institution. ITUNES itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u/hoover-institution Find daily articles, op-eds, blogs, INSTAGRAM https://instagram.com/hooverinstitution audio, and video in one app. Fall 2019 HOOVER DIGEST POLITICS 9 How Policy Became War Wars on poverty, on drugs, on terrorism: for decades the federal government has been declaring war—metaphorical, that is. The casualties? Compromise, reason, and the separation of powers. By David Davenport and Gordon Lloyd THE ECONOMY 18 Is the Recovery Ending? Slower job creation doesn’t mean a recession is imminent. But policy makers can’t assume growth will take care of itself. By Edward P. Lazear 21 Universal Income: How to Bust the Bank This utopian scheme would create the mother of all welfare states. By David R. Henderson 27 Brave New Automated World The digital revolution holds great promise for human well- being—if that revolution can be managed. By Michael Spence HEALTH CARE 32 “Free” Health Care Isn’t How single-payer systems fail their patients. By Scott W. Atlas HOOVER DIGEST • FALL 2019 3 36 Scrub This Fantasy “Medicare for all” is a prescription for fresh inefficiencies and stratospheric costs. We couldn’t afford it—and we shouldn’t even want it. By Charles Blahous DEMOCRACY 40 How to Save Democracy A surge of authoritarianism has overwhelmed the “freedom agenda.” Yet even as Russia rages and China seethes, America can, and must, stand up for democracy. By Larry Diamond 50 Indispensable Free Speech Free speech defends our other freedoms and offends would-be autocrats. It’s time to revive this bedrock American principle. By Peter Berkowitz 55 Laugh On Free people know how—and why—to cut elites down to size. By Bruce S. Thornton LAW AND JUSTICE 59 Clarence Thomas Holds the Line To the chagrin of populists and progressives alike, the Supreme Court justice displays an intelligent and insistent fidelity to the Constitution. By Adam J. White 4 HOOVER DIGEST • FALL 2019 EDUCATION 66 Integration Is No Panacea Sixty-five years after the Supreme Court rejected “separate but equal” classrooms, segregation—formal segregation, at least— is gone. Yet our schools still struggle. Reform now depends more on excellence than on inclusion. By Richard A. Epstein 71 Better Students and Better Jobs A new survey shows that the jobs for which students are training simply aren’t the jobs employers want to fill. How to fix this mismatch. By Amber M. Northern and Michael J. Petrilli THE ENVIRONMENT 76 Polluters and Scapegoats Banning plastic bags won’t save the planet. Real progress will have to extend well beyond empty gestures. By Bjorn Lomborg EUROPE 81 Continental Drift Across Europe, political disruptors are elbowing aside the established parties. The disruptors’ goals, when they can be discerned, are all over the map. By Josef Joffe CHINA AND TAIWAN 86 Tiananmen Dreams Throughout modern history, China has defied the experts and their expectations. Now, as always, the Middle Kingdom will move at its own pace. By Amy B. Zegart 92 Dire Strait Taiwan must decide how to respond to military provocations from the mainland. America may have to decide, too. By Michael R. Auslin HOOVER DIGEST • FALL 2019 5 96 Islands in the Stream A handful of small islands once formed a battleground in the Taiwan-China clash. Today those islands not only are at peace but represent a bridge of sorts between the two old adversaries. By Hsiao-ting Lin INDIA 106 Putting Tolerance to the Test At its founding, India displayed a powerful affinity for Western values—equality, self-rule, dignity. But in the name of Hindu tradition, the country’s present rulers are flouting those values. By Tunku Varadarajan THE MIDDLE EAST 110 Building Democracy on Sand Israel lacks a constitution—and any clear idea of where it is going. A new book takes up the unanswered questions of the Jewish state. By Arye Carmon 118 Clausewitz Goes East In the Mideast, it’s the power centers that matter—not territory, not capitals, but far-flung and complex alliances. By Charles Hill 123 Hopeless in Gaza Palestinians, in refusing even to consider taking economic aid in exchange for reforms, are only harming themselves. By Michael J. Boskin 6 HOOVER DIGEST • FALL 2019 BREXIT 126 Elegy in an English Church One quietly proud corner of Britain sees Brexit as a matter of what to keep, not whom to exclude. By Tunku Varadarajan CALIFORNIA 129 Untangling Homelessness Throwing money at the problem while blocking development just worsens housing problems. What would help? Unleashing homebuilders and job-creating businesses, especially in the Central Valley and the hinterlands. By Lee E. Ohanian 134 Tax Avengers: Endgame? A recent schools tax measure failed—and failed badly. Californians may not be all that eager to weaken Proposition 13 after all. By Bill Whalen INTERVIEW 139 “None of the Wars Has Been Won” Hoover fellow David Davenport, co-author of How Public Policy Became War, calls for a rhetorical cease-fire.