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Nepal's Election: a Peaceful Revolution?

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Nepal's Election: a Peaceful Revolution? NEPAL’S ELECTION: A PEACEFUL REVOLUTION? Asia Report N°155 – 3 July 2008 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. THE CAMPAIGN ............................................................................................................. 2 A. THE MAOIST MACHINE................................................................................................................2 B. THE STUTTERING CHALLENGE.....................................................................................................3 C. THE MADHESIS PARTIES: MOTIVATION AMID MUTUAL SUSPICION .............................................4 D. THE LEGACY OF CONFLICT ..........................................................................................................5 III. THE VOTE ........................................................................................................................6 A. THE TECHNICAL MANAGEMENT ..................................................................................................6 B. THE VOTE ITSELF ........................................................................................................................7 C. DID VOTERS KNOW WHAT THEY WERE DOING?.........................................................................8 D. REPOLLING ..................................................................................................................................9 IV. WAS IT FREE AND FAIR?............................................................................................. 9 A. THE ATMOSPHERE .......................................................................................................................9 B. DISRUPTION, INTIMIDATION AND CHEATING..............................................................................10 C. KILLINGS ...................................................................................................................................11 D. MUCH MOANING, FEW FORMAL COMPLAINTS...........................................................................12 E. WHAT CAN BE CONCLUDED? ....................................................................................................12 V. THE RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 13 A. THE BROAD PICTURE.................................................................................................................13 1. The count ...................................................................................................................................13 2. Notable features .........................................................................................................................14 3. A new look assembly.................................................................................................................15 4. The PR seat distribution.............................................................................................................16 B. WHY DID THE MAOISTS WIN? ...................................................................................................16 C. WHY DID WE (ALMOST) ALL GET IT WRONG? .........................................................................18 VI. CONCLUSION................................................................................................................ 20 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NEPAL ................................................................................................................................21 B. GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS ...............................................................................................................22 C. AN OVERVIEW OF THE ELECTION RESULTS......................................................................................23 D. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP ....................................................................................24 E. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA............................................................................25 F. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES................................................................................................27 Asia Report N°155 3 July 2008 NEPAL’S ELECTION: A PEACEFUL REVOLUTION? EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nepal’s constituent assembly (CA) elections marked a and motivation – qualities which were deservedly re- major step forward in the peace process, paving the flected in its victory. way for the declaration of a federal democratic repub- lic and the start of the constitution-writing process. The vote itself and the complex parallel count went Although falling short of an outright majority, the remarkably smoothly, with complete results (includ- Maoists won a decisive victory at the 10 April 2008 ing repolling) ready within fifteen days. Still, final re- polls, securing a mandate for peace and change. How- sults, including the approved lists of parties’ selec- ever, the largely peaceful and well-managed vote tions to fill PR seats, were published only on 8 May, opened a messy new round of political haggling and almost a month after the election. Five by-elections, obstruction. The Maoists have been unable to secure for seats resigned by individuals who won FPTP con- agreement on a new coalition government. Other par- tests from two constituencies, will probably be held ties, still struggling to accept their defeat, have set new only in September. One declared FPTP result has conditions for supporting a Maoist-led administration. been suspended by court order following an appeal by the (narrow) loser. The 26 individuals nominated by The elections delivered a clear and, to many, surpris- the cabinet, who will complete the complement of ing result. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist, 601 CA members, have yet to be decided thanks to CPN(M)), emerged as the largest party by a wide the elusiveness of the required inter-party “consensus”. margin, winning more than one-third of CA seats. The largest established parties, the Nepali Congress Whatever the broad political breakdown, the CA is a (NC) and Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marx- remarkably inclusive body, far more representative of ist-Leninist, UML), were not wiped out but have had Nepal’s caste, ethnic, religious and regional diversity difficulty coping with their relatively weak showing – than any past parliament. One third of its members are their combined seats are less than those of the Mao- women, catapulting the country into regional leader- ists. The NC was particularly hard hit by the strong ship on gender representation. Thanks largely to the performance of new Madhesi parties, among which PR component, no fewer than 25 parties have secured the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) has secured a CA seats, reflecting a kaleidoscope of ideological and dominant position. Royalist parties failed to win a regional or community-specific agendas. The MJF single first-past-the-post (FPTP) seat, only saving a proved that it was more than just a brand name for a toehold in the new assembly through the parallel pro- vague sense of Madhesi grievance but a viable political portional representation (PR) contest. machine able to mobilise votes and put identity politics on the map – probably for the foreseeable future. Party campaigning built the atmosphere for a lively and passionate contest. Long-suffering and politically The Maoist victory was not unsullied. The CPN(M) sophisticated voters proved a testing audience, keen to engaged in orchestrated strong-arm tactics, generally hear what candidates had to say for themselves but facing down other parties, which embraced similar well prepared to exercise their own judgement. It was means. Some resounding constituency results would not the cleanest of campaigns. The established parties have embarrassed the more modest political bosses resorted to old tricks to steal a march on their oppo- who engineer realistic-looking margins of victory. nents. The Maoists, and to a lesser extent the MJF, Nevertheless, its strong showing was not manufac- distinguished themselves primarily by outdoing their tured. Voters were willing to give credit for its strug- more experienced rivals at their own game. The gle and sacrifice, recognising that the Maoists were CPN(M) did use intimidation and coercion but also the architects of the federal republican agenda. They exercised great restraint in the face of the possibly struck a chord with popular aspirations that the old calculated killing of fifteen of its activists. At the parties had not even woken up to. In this, as in their same time it demonstrated formidable organisation more dubious techniques, they made full use of the Nepal’s Election: A Peaceful Revolution? Crisis Group Asia Report N°155, 3 July 2008 Page ii fact that they had stayed in close touch with ordinary cal elite to digest the message that Nepal’s citizens people and not lost their heads in Kathmandu poli- have at last been allowed to send them. ticking. Meanwhile, their convincing victories in many urban constituencies – the CPN(M) emerged the clear This report describes the campaign and vote, assesses winner in the greater Kathmandu area –demonstrated the credibility of the election and analyses the results. that they did not profit solely by preying on vulnerable A companion policy report published
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