SOUTH ASIA TRENDSSOUTHSOUTH ASIAASIA VolTRENDSTRENDS 2 No 7 September 01-30, 2011 Volume 2 Number 7 September 01-30, 2011 South Asia Trends is a fortnightly newsletter on South Asian affairs. The purpose of the newsletter is to provide a panoramic view of important events that shape and impact the politics of the subcontinent. The effort would be to inform our readers of the domestic, regional and international repercussions of the political debates and diplomatic engagements that take place in South Asia. Compiled & Edited by Medha Bisht Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 2 No 7 September 01-30, 2011 Editor’s Note The eve of September 20, 2011 was a set back to the Afghan peace process, as Burhanuddin Rabbani, Chairman of the High Peace Council got assassinated. With Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claiming responsibility for the assassination, many believe the Afghan crises will be further perpetuated in the coming months. Meanwhile cross border shelling, along with the allegation that the assassination of Rabbani was plotted outside the country has eclipsed the Afghan- Pakistan bilateral relations. Pakistan Prime Minister Gilani on his part has refuted such accusations by stating that “several countries have maintained direct contacts with the Haqqanis. Singling out Pakistan is not fair”. This statement was seconded by Major General Athar Abbas’s acknowledgement, who argued that, “any intelligence agency would like to maintain contact with whatever opposition group, whatever terrorist organization”. He however added that, “there is a huge difference between maintaining contacts with such a group to facilitate peace and supporting it against an ally.” Athar Abbas is the spokesman for the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence. Meanwhile, the US Treasury Department has slapped sanctions on the Haqqani network. Hajji Faizullah Noorzai, a prominent Taliban financer, his brother Hajji Malik Noorzai, Abdur Rehman, a Taliban facilitator, and Fazal Rahim, a financer of Al Qaeda are amongst those sanctioned. Given the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, India on its part has warned against any "hurry" in withdrawing troops from the country, stating in unequivocal terms that any withdrawal from a combat role in Afghanistan, will be at its own peril. On Indo-Bangladesh bilateral engagement, Mamta Banerjee's last minute refusal to accompany the Indian delegation proved costly to India's sub-regional diplomacy with her Eastern neighbourhood. While the failing of the Teesta agreement was a reminder to the growing importance of state-centre relations in India's neighbourhood policy, the protests in Assam over the land swap accord, indicates the significance of such trends in near future. Chief Minister of Tripura Manik Sarkar has however said that Tripura will continue developing infrastructure including roads and railways so that it can take advantage of the transit facilities after the agreement and other issues are settled. However, India has agreed to exchange data on water availability in the Teesta river. With recent internal developments in Karachi, pointing to political turmoil, institutions related to water distribution, management and policy implementation perhaps need attention. The flood crisis in Sindh is just one reminder to channelize attention to this marginalized area disaster preparedness. Various media reports attribute the causes of floods to climate change. Some other factors which have aggravated the crises are the flat terrain with poor drainage capacity and breaches in the Left Bank Outfall Drain in Sindh. The magnitude of impact is seen in the lives of millions of people who have been uprooted across the twenty-three districts of Sindh. As media reports flood the public domain, there is information building up on various water-borne diseases and health problems impinging the lives of the people at large. SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 2 No 7 September 01-30, 2011 Afghanistan Karzai off to Tajikistan for quartet talks Pajhwok, September 1, 2011 President Hamid Karzai, heading a high level official delegation, left for Tajikistan to join his Tajik, Russian and Pakistani counterparts in a quartet meeting scheduled for Friday in Dushanbe, an official said. The presidents of Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan are due to meet tomorrow on the international battle against terror and the war on drugs, as well as economic issues, deputy presidential spokesman, Hamid Almi, told Pajhwok Afghan News. (Source:http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2011/09/01/karzai-tajikistan-quartet-talks) Strategic accord with US should serve national interest: Karzai Pajhwok News, September 5, 2011 President Hamid Karzai has directed his security advisor to discuss with US officials the proposed strategic cooperation agreement, insisting the pact should serve Afghanistan’s national interests, the Presidential Palace said on Sunday. Rangin Dadfar Spanta was directed this at a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) chaired by the president at his Palace on Sunday, the President’s Office said in a statement. Interior minister Bismillah Mohammadi told the meeting that special steps were being taken to arrest or eliminate insurgents creating problems for welfare projects. (Source: http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2011/09/05/strategic-accord-us-should-serve- national-interest-karzai) Chinese Company Likely to Win Afghan Oil Extraction Bid Daily Outlook Afghanistan, September 8, 2011 The Afghan Ministry of Mines said that a Chinese company is likely to win an oil extraction bid in northern Afghanistan. The Chinese company, CNPC International, has offered 15 per cent of oil to the Afghan government - the highest offer to the government — encouraging the ministry of mines to award the contract to the Chinese firm. The Amo river oil deposits exceeds 80 million barrels, according experts. A dozen companies had participated in the tender process and four companies provided their proposals on time, among them CNPC International. (Source: http://outlookafghanistan.net/news?post_id=1785) US not seeking permanent military base in Afghanistan Times of India, September 8, 2011 The US is not seeking any permanent military base in Afghanistan or a presence that would be a threat to any of its neighbours, the Obama administration said on Thursday. The statement came just before the start of a crucial US-Afghan talks on new strategic partnership. The Afghanistan National Security Advisor, Rangin Dadfar Spanta, is leading a high-power Afghan delegation for the two day talks that started on Thursday. The American delegation is led by the special SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 2 No 7 September 01-30, 2011 representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc Grossman and the special assistant to the President for Afghanistan and Pakistan Doug Lute. (Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/US-not-seeking- permanent-military-base-in-Afghanistan/articleshow/9914250.cms) Al Qaeda leaders operate outside Afghanistan: ISAF Pajhwok, September 11, 2011 Al Qaeda leaders are active outside Afghanistan, but they are unable to conduct major attacks like the 9/11 assaults, a spokesman for ISAF said. Carsten Jacobson told Pajhwok Afghan News during an exclusive interview that they were trying to target Al Qaeda leaders in all parts of the world.The September 11 attacks were carried out with four hijacked airplanes on the Pentagon in Washington and the World Trade Centre in New York, killing nearly 3,000 people and injuring many others. (Source: http://www.pajhwok.com/en/2011/09/11/al-qaeda-leaders-operate-outside- afghanistan-isaf) UN Can Help Facilitate Afghan Peace Talks: Ban Daily Outlook Afghanistan, September 11, 2011 United Nations’ Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said the organization can help facilitate peace talks in Afghanistan. He also urged the international community not to abandon Afghanistan as troops withdraw. The UN chief stressed that while foreign combat troops are due to leave Afghanistan by 2014, this should not be seen as a full exit for the global community.”The international community has an obligation to continuously engage with Afghanistan even though ISAF members may withdraw their military engagement,” Mr Ban said. “There is very serious insecurity,” he added, saying that foreign forces could help strengthen the Afghan National Army and police. There are about 140,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan, 90,000 of which are from the US. (Source: http://outlookafghanistan.net/news?post_id=1815) Security Transition Doesn’t Mean Disengagement: Crocker Daily Outlook Afghanistan, September 12, 2011 The US ambassador, reiterating his country’s long-term commitment to Afghanistan, said on Sunday that security transition to Afghan forces from their international counterparts did not mean disengagement. “We are and will remain committed to Afghanistan and the region. We are in this for the long haul. We are transitioning security responsibility to Afghan forces, but transition does not mean disengagement,” he said.Addressing an event marking the 10th death anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, Ryan Crocker said Afghanistan and the US were working on a strategic partnership document that would define their relationship well beyond 2014 — when the transition process is scheduled to be completed. (Source: http://outlookafghanistan.net/news?post_id=1834) SOUTH ASIA TRENDS Vol 2 No 7 September 01-30, 2011 No compromise on media freedom Pajhwok News, September 13, 2011 A media support group said on Monday a compromise on press freedom