NEPAL’S CONSTITUTION (II): THE EXPANDING POLITICAL MATRIX Asia Report N°234 – 27 August 2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. THE REVOLUTIONARY SPLIT ................................................................................... 3 A. GROWING APART ......................................................................................................................... 5 B. THE END OF THE MAOIST ARMY .................................................................................................. 7 C. THE NEW MAOIST PARTY ............................................................................................................ 8 1. Short-term strategy ....................................................................................................................... 8 2. Organisation and strength .......................................................................................................... 10 3. The new party’s players ............................................................................................................. 11 D. REBUILDING THE ESTABLISHMENT PARTY ................................................................................. 12 1. Strategy and organisation ........................................................................................................... 12 2. The new factionalism ................................................................................................................. 14 III. OLD, NEW AND EMERGING PARTIES ................................................................... 15 A. NEPALI CONGRESS ..................................................................................................................... 15 B. UML ......................................................................................................................................... 17 C. MADHESI PARTIES ..................................................................................................................... 19 D. FAR-RIGHT PARTIES ................................................................................................................... 21 IV. POLITICS OUTSIDE PARTIES ................................................................................... 23 A. PARTIES OF THE FUTURE? .......................................................................................................... 23 1. Janajati party politics ................................................................................................................ 23 2. Upper-caste groups .................................................................................................................... 23 B. THE THARU MOVEMENT ............................................................................................................ 24 C. ETHNIC AND REGIONAL GROUPS ............................................................................................... 25 D. THE MILITANT FAR-RIGHT ........................................................................................................ 27 V. SMALLER POLITICAL ACTORS .............................................................................. 28 A. THE DALIT MOVEMENT ............................................................................................................. 28 B. WOMEN’S GROUPS .................................................................................................................... 29 VI. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................ 30 APPENDICES A. MAP OF NEPAL ................................................................................................................................ 31 B. GLOSSARY ....................................................................................................................................... 32 C. ABOUT THE INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP .................................................................................... 34 D. CRISIS GROUP REPORTS AND BRIEFINGS ON ASIA SINCE 2009 ......................................................... 35 E. CRISIS GROUP BOARD OF TRUSTEES ................................................................................................ 37 Asia Report N°234 27 August 2012 NEPAL’S CONSTITUTION (II): THE EXPANDING POLITICAL MATRIX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The peace process and stalled constitution writing exer- ism alliance emerged, which included the Maoists, a large cise, in particular the debate about federalism, have expand- front of Madhesi parties and the janajati caucus, putting ed Nepal’s political matrix. Identity politics is a mainstream identity at the centre of Nepali politics. There are also social phenomenon and new ethnic-based and regional political or intellectual movements associated with all pro-federal- forces are coalescing. Actors who want a federal structure ism actors. Outside political circles, the general public is that acknowledges Nepal’s many identities have allied, increasingly asking that all parties clarify their positions. overcoming other political differences. The Maoist party has split. Once centrist forces have moved to the right. All The ramifications of the Maoist split, which was made parties are grappling with factional and ideological divi- official in June 2012, are unclear. The smaller new party sions. Old monarchical forces are more visible. How these says the Maoists surrendered too much during the peace political shifts will settle depends on the parties’ decisions process. But the division was also about personal rivalries on resuming constitution writing and future electoral cal- and ambitions. The breakaway party says it will not imme- culations. The Constituent Assembly has been dissolved diately launch another war and is reaching out to diverse, after failing to deliver the new constitution on the 27 May sometimes mutually hostile actors, including former Mao- deadline. The constitution was to establish federalism and ist fighters, ethnic activists and ultra-nationalists. The es- address the demands of marginalised groups. Social polar- tablishment party – what remains of the original Maoist isation over these issues compounds constitutional uncer- party after the split – is much stronger, but has serious tainty and the legislative vacuum. The tensions around problems of discontent and factionalism within its ranks. federalism and fluid political equations threaten to pro- Both Maoist parties are struggling over assets and cadres; voke volatile confrontations. these contests could spread even to factions within the parties. A protracted feud is also certain over which of the The elections to the Constituent Assembly in 2008 changed two parties is more faithful to the agenda of transforming Nepal’s political landscape, and not only because the Mao- Nepal and to leftist ideology. ists unexpectedly emerged as the largest party after ending their decade-long insurgency. The new Madhesi parties The Nepali Congress, the second largest party after the 2008 representing the plains populations of the southern Tarai elections, has led the fight against federalism and inclu- belt became the fourth largest force in the assembly. The sion. It has other serious problems, including a leadership Maoists and Madhesis argued Nepal needed what they crisis, factionalism and discontent among top leaders. called ethnic federalism. Devolution of state power to new Meanwhile, the UML, the third largest party in the last as- states created along ethnic lines is meant to address the sembly, took disciplinary action against members sympa- historical marginalisation of janajati or ethnic or indige- thetic to ethnic demands. These members are under pres- nous groups and Madhesis. Janajati groups did not become sure from ethnic groups to choose between their party, which a mainstream parliamentary phenomenon then, but the issue refuses to compromise on identity-based federalism, and became the centrepiece of the peace process, which envis- their constituencies, which are increasingly favourable to it. aged sweeping structural changes. Since the election, the traditional Nepali Congress party and the Communist Party Both the Congress and the UML are popular in Nepal’s of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) have rejected opinion-making circles and must decide if they want to many aspects of the proposed socio-political transforma- cater primarily to the upper-caste, upper-class and urban tions, notably by opposing identity-based federalism. elites, or return to a broader social base. They have moved from occupying what was traditionally considered the In May 2012, when it looked as if identity-based federal- centre in Nepali politics to being on the right. This space ism was slipping away, janajati politics came together. A is for those who claim that federalism, political inclusion multiparty caucus of ethnic Constituent Assembly (assem- and minority rights damage national unity and meritocracy. bly) members became assertive. An informal pro-federal- Actors in this position consider that inequality has pri- Nepal’s Constitution (II): The Expanding Political Matrix Crisis Group Asia Report N°234, 27 August 2012 Page ii marily economic bases and that policies addressing ethnic discrimination harm individual