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Romanian Academy United Nations Development Programme Romanian Academy United Nations Development Programme ROMANIA 2020 CONSPRESS Bucharest 1998 Romania 2020 EDITED BY: ROMANIAN ACADEMY National Institute for Economic Researches Institute for World Economy Comission for Prospective Studies UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME (UNDP) National Center for Sustainable Development FOUNDATION OF BLACK SEA’S UNIVERSITY ROMANIAN ASSOCIATION FOR “CLUB of ROME” AUTHORS: Foreword: Leueen Miller, UNDP – Resident Representative Preface: acad. Eugen Simion, president of the Romanian Academy Chapters 1 and 7 acad. Mircea Malitza Chapters 5 and 7 prof. dr. Constantin Ionete, honorary member of the Romanian Academy Chapter 3 and 7 eng. Calin Georgescu Chapter 2 prof. dr. Vasile Ghetau Chapter 2 dr. Ioana Iacob Chapter 2 prof. dr. Gheorghe Stefan Chapter 3 prof.dr.Marian Traian Gomoiu, correspondent member of the Romanian Academy Chapter 3 prof. dr. Marcian Bleahu Chapter 3 Vasile Udubasa Chapter 3 prof. dr. Vlad Ionescu Sisesti Chapter 3 prof. dr. Victor Giurgiu, membru corespondent al Academiei Române Chapter 3 Chapter 3 mat. Dumitru Mihu Chapter 3 ing. Dumitru Manea Chapter 3 prof. dr. Ioan Bold Chapter 4 acad. Alexandru T. Balaban Chapter 4 prof. dr. Petre Frangopol Chapter 5 prof. dr. Gheorghe Zaman Chapter 5 cercetator Mihai Stefan Chapter 5 prof. dr. Maria Poenaru Chapter 5 prof. dr. Steliana Pert Chapter 6 acad. Paul Mircea Cosmovici Coordinators: Mircea Malitza Calin Georgescu Scientific and editorial advisor: writer Dan Apostol Layout: eng. Tania Mihu The authors wish to thank UNDP and CONSPRESS publishing house for their generous support, which allowed the publishing of this book. English version: Scientific and editorial advisor: writer Dan Apostol Primary translation: Updating: writer Dan Apostol Layout: eng. Tania Mihu Copyright © 1998 Romanian Academy and United Nations Development Programme ISBN 973-96233-9-5 CONTENTS Foreword Preface Chapter1 – Introduction 1A. World-wide Tendencies 1B. The Great Challenge Chapter 2 – The population and the Characteristics 2A. Romania’s Population in 2020 2B. The State of Health 2C. Education, Learning, Instruction Chapter .3 – The Natural Resources and the Protection of the Environment 3A. Romania’s Natural Capital 3B. Mineral Resiurces 3C. The Air 3D. The Water 3E. The Biodiversity 3F. The Agriculture 3G. The Forests 3H. The Energy 3I. The Territori’s Planning 3J. The Basin of Danube Delta and the Black Sea 3K. The Sustainable Development and the Way to Prosperity Chapter 4 – Science and Technology 4A. Preamble 4B. Directions of Exellence in Romania 4C. The perspectives of the Four Decades in Science and Universal Techology 4D. Romania’s Situation as regards the Science and Techology 4E. Informatics and Communications 4F. Services 4G. Transports 4H. Industry 4I. Biosciences 4J. Managing and Financing the Research and Development Fields Chapter 5 – Economy 5A. The Economic Legislation of the Transition 5B. Romania’s Economy in 2020 Chapter 6 – The State and the Civil Society 6A. The State and Public Management’s Evolution 6B. The Politic System. The Democracy 6C. The Civil Society Chapter 7 – Conclusions 7A. The Nucleous of anticipations for 2020 7B. Situating Romania in the World of 2020 Foreword It has already been established a policy of the United Nations Program of Development to help the national creative initiatives. That’s why I was very pleased to encourage the preparing of the “ROMANIA 2020” project that tries to offer a coherent analysis. This paper is a result of a common effort of many academicians and scholars who studied the present situation of the Romanian society. They have recommended that the social and political policies adapt taking into account the transition’ s costs estimated according to the actual tendencies and the future ones that are to be seen in the working’force market as wel as commercial changes, energy, industry agriculture and the environment’s protection. U.N.D.P.- considers that this project will succeed in bringing an important contribution to debating the evolution of the Romanian society, offering to the governmental official, civil society, youth and academical people the opportunity to express their opinion on the Romanian society of the year 2020. I want to take the advantage of this occasion and thank to all of those who made a contribution to the achievement of this remarkable project and I hope it will bring a vivid discussion on problems covered. Leueen Miller U.N.D.P. – Resident Representative Preface The “Romania 2020 “Program has always been a part of what we call The Romanian Academy’s Topical Programs. They have been referring to a great number of problems, beginning with The History of the Romanians and The Regional Linguistic Atlas up to the Romanian Rural Society’s Development. The ambition of our Academy is to prepare in a very short time a General Strategy of the Development of Our Society, considering that the Romanian Academy could think further to the future and of course offer reliable solutions in a world in which the political groups follow their proper interests. “Romania 2020” is in a certain way the predecessor of this vast and ambitious project. It aims at discussing and making studies as to the development of our country in a medium period. In the last four years, our researchers have organized numerous international conferences and colloquies concerning the energy, agriculture, nuclear energy [1994]; demography, economy, informational society, medicine, world –wide economy and education [1995]; youth, preventing the disasters [1996]; ecology, the Black Sea‘s problems and the sustainable development [1995] - are only some examples as to the approaching of the vital problems the country is facing out in the perspective of the near future. In the Academy’s Assembly Hall, many personalities from abroad made speeches that helped in understanding the main processes of the Contemporary World and of the perspective studies that had been made. Harlan Cleveland - President of the World Academy of Art and Science; Paul – Marc Henry – The Ambassador of France, President of the European Center of Development from the Peace University (U.N); Ricardo Diez Hochleitner – the President of Rome Club ; Alexander King – Merited President of Rome Club; Lincoln Bloomfield – Merited Professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (M.I.T-U.S.A.); Hugues de Jouvenal – Director of Futuribles International, Paris; Bertrand Schneider General Secretary of Rome Club; Rei Shiratory - University professor, Tokyo etc. This paper is another result of “Romania 2020” project and it has been made up in cooperation with different personality and research centers in our country that have joined to the Academy’s specialists’ efforts. This study aims at offering a background documentation and new point of view suggesting a number of projects as a first step in a process that needs to be continued and complete. Consequently the preliminary edition will be translated into English and it could be amended following to the debates and additions that will be done. A greater attention is going to be given to the social, ethical and cultural problems, Romania’s integration in Euro-Atlantic structures, as well as presuming and evaluating the cultural and artistic patrimony that have already been taken over by the younger generation. The Romanian Academy wants to thank all those that brought their contribution to materializing this project and once again expresses its gratitude to the specialists from the United Nations’ Program of Development who gave a hand to achieve this work. P.N.U.D. has set up a National Center for Sustainable Development under the care of the Academy, a premise that the researches in this direction will be increased. The same center toghether with the Prospective Commission of the Academy and its Institutes will make all efforts so that the present book will be the background of a large debate and will collect new facts, appreciations and visions useful for the development of the Romanian society. We also express our gratitude to the Technical University of Constructions from Bucharest (Conspress-Printing House) for publishing the first edition of “Romania 2020”. We are not sure that history will take into account our projects, but the scholars‘ target is to compels it take into consideration their ideas and aspirations. That’s why, from ancient times the intellectuals have been making projects and fancying ideal societies. Today’s researches are no longer confident to the ideal societies and consequently they are not making utopias any more. Now they take aim at a more unpretentious purpose that is a discover of the signs of our future evolutions and show the best way as they can. Let our project’s perspective come true! Acad. Eugen Simion President of the Romanian Academy Chapter 1 – INTRODUCTION 1A. World – wide tendencies To have a picture of the first decades of the XXI-st century it is instructive to study the identified tendencies of the last decade of XX-th century. As a matter of fact, in the opinion of the English historian – Eric Hobsbawn, the new century has already begun: ”The XX-th century started in 1914 and finished in 1991, being a short century”. This does not mean that it was short of surprises. A best seller that asked what country would win the economic competition in the next century – Japan, Europe or U.S.A. has become obsolete in just four years, its author recognizing that Japan owing to its long recession left the game and consequently a new great economical power, more dynamical, namely China, should be taken into consideration. Another surprise was that in 1997 the “Asia’s tigers” have known a fall of the markets considered as a threat even for the developed economies. Let’s review some of the broad tendencies, which are pointed out by the specialists, beginning with John Naisbitt: According to him the ten characteristics of the XXI-st century are as follows: 1.
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