Russia–Japan Relations: New Stage of Development
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S SUMMER SCHOOLS EXPERT COMMENTARIES S GUEST LECTURES CENARIOS T S S TABLE NTERNATIONAL RELATIONS C I S NALYSIS AND FORECASTING FOREIGN POLICY ISCUSSIONS A T D C REFERENCE BOOKS DIALOGUE ETWORK SCIENCE WORKING PAPERS DUCATION N PROJE OUND E REPORTS NALYSIS AND FORECASTING URITY R A S ATION C C PROJE E ORGANIZATION OMPETITIONS C NTERNATIONAL ACTIVITY CONFERENCES DU I E S S S FOREIGN POLICY TALENT POOL CS S EDUCATION POOL POLITI EPORTS OUND TABLES ION R R ENARIO GLOBAL POLITICS ETWORK C NTERNATIONAL I N IVIL OCIETY INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS S C S LOBAL RELATION G TALENT SS EFERENCE BOOKS NTERNATIONAL Y R I RUSSIANY RUSSIAN Y S C S ORGANIZATIONS DUCATION C E E INTERNATIONAL U SECURITY C RELATION SUMMER C AFFAIRS COUNCIL POLI SCHOOLS IALOGUE IETY D TING ONAL OUND I R GUEST LECTURES C SC O S TABLES I TY IGRATION EPORTS I R S A V ARTNERSHIP OREIGN P I NTERNATIONAL IBRARY OADMAPS XPERT R F E I S ONFEREN IPLOMA D M C L URITY GLOBAL NTERNAT MIGRATION COMMENTARIES IVIL C I ACT S ILATERAL NTHOLOGIE C POOL D SCIENCE C REPORTS I BOOK E ISCUSSIONS INTERNSHIPS B A D IPLOMA E WEBSITE PARTNERSHIP INTERNSHIPS S S Y C TALENT C DIALOGUE GLOBAL NTHOLOGIESGLOBAL Y A C S D POLI FORE SCIENCE CONFERENCES POLI Y S C ITE EFEREN S S NALYSISSCIENCE IGRATION A IBRARY OADMAP EB ENARIO OREIGN R IPLOMA C F R L M OREIGN D S W NALY AND FORECASTING F S DIALOGUE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS A AND S NETWORK INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS E CLUB MEETINGS DIALOGUE DIPLOMACY PROJECTS HOOL S S C IALOGUE S T D C URITY UMMER ITE E S HIP C S OMMENTARIE TURE IVIL OCIETY C S C S EBSITE E C W C WORKING PAPER HIP EB S PROJE IGRATION LE S SC S EXPERT COMMENTARIES OREIGN POLICY F IEN T W M RELATION S XPERT IPLOMACY E D UE S EDUCATION NESS G ARTNER ETWORK SC NTERN S ANALYSIS AND I E I N P IBRARY FORECASTING C URITY L ONFEREN CIVIL SOCIETY C E S IEN RUSSIA–JAPAN RELATIONS: S C NTHOLOGIES S S A GLOBAL POLITICS C RUSSIA AND THE WEST: THE NEW NORMAL S ILATERAL CLUB MEETINGS S COMPETITIONS HIP B US NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENTHIP S ROUND TABLES S EPORT S ROADMAPS WORKING PAPERS E IGRATION PAPER RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL (RIAC) ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING E C R B CENARIOS 1, B. Yakimanka street, 119180, Moscow, Russia ARTNERSHIP S C P LOBAL S REFERENCE BOOKS S Tel.: +7 (495) 225 6283 OMPETITION IBRARY ORKING L IEN ARTNER M NTERN S S G Fax: +7 (495) 225 6284 C I W IBRARY S XPERT COMMENTARIES P OMMENTARIE E L ION SC E–mail: [email protected] C 32 50/ 2016 / 2019 www.russiancouncil.ru SS INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION S S U S ORGANIZATION REFERENCE BOOKS EDUCATION IETY SC C ISCUSSIONS I LOBAL D OADMAP SUMMER SCHOOLS XPERT OMPETITION UEST LECTURES IVIL O G ILATERAL HOOL NTERNATIONAL RELATIONS I E S C R C D G MEETING E ANTHOLOGIES B RELATION WORKING PAPERS C NTHOLOGIE UMMER ONFEREN LOBAL POLITICS IEN G LUB C NTERNATIONAL S SC C S I A FOREIGN POLICY TALENT POOL REFERENCE BOOKS C Cover_WP-32.indd 1 12.12.2016 18:01:14 RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL MOSCOW 2019 Russian International Affairs Council Editorial Board Editor-in-Chief: I.S. Ivanov, RAS Corresponding Member, Dr. of History Authors: A.N. Panov, Dr. of Political Science (Foreword); D.V. Streltsov, Dr. of History (Chapter 1); A.A. Kireeva, Ph.D. in Political Science (Chapter 2); V.V. Nelidov (Chapter 3) Copy editors: I.N. Timofeev, Ph.D. in Political Science; T.A. Makhmutov, Ph.D. in Political Science; K.A. Kuzmina; A.N. Larionova Russia–Japan Relations: New Stage of Development. Working Paper 50/2019 / [A.N. Panov, D.V. Strelt- sov, A.A. Kireeva, V.V. Nelidov]; [I.S. Ivanov, Editor-in-Chief]; Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). – Moscow: NPMP RIAC, 2019. – 40 pages – Authors and editors are listed on the reverse of the title page. ISBN 978-5-6041889-4-1 The Working Paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the positions of Russia and Japan on relevant global, regional and bilateral issues. Leading experts analyze key interests of the two countries on the world stage, prospects for their interaction in resolving security problems in the Asia Pacific, and the influence of regional players on the cooperation between Moscow and Tokyo. The authors pay special attention to opportunities for increasing trade, economic and cultural cooperation between the countries. Working Paper is timed to Russia–Japan Cross Year declared by the governments of the two countries for 2018–2019. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the Russian International Affairs Council. The full text of the working paper is available on RIAC’s website. You can download it or leave a comment via this direct link – russiancouncil.ru/en/paper50 © Авторский коллектив, 2019 © Составление, оформление, дизайн обложки. НП РСМД, 2019 © Edition in Russian, translation into English, drafting, design. NPMP RIAC, 2019 Table of Contents Foreword 4 Chapter 1. Russia–Japan Relations in the Context of New and Traditional Security Challenges 8 1.1. Japan’s Views on Global and Regional Issues 8 1.2. Russia–Japan Relations in the Context of Growing Tensions between Russia and the West 11 1.3. Chinese Factor in Russia–Japan Relations 13 Chapter 2. Russia and Japan’s Positions on Key Problems of Regional Security and Cooperation 15 2.1. Approaches of Russia and Japan to Regional Security Issues 15 2.2. Russia and Japan’s Approaches to Regional Integration Processes 19 2.3. Positions of Russia and Japan on the Korean Peninsula Denuclearization 22 Chapter 3. Bilateral Relations between Russia and Japan 26 3.1. Political Dialogue between Russia and Japan and the Peace Treaty Problem 26 3.2. Ways to Stimulate Mutual Investments and Expand Trade: Promising Areas 29 3.3. Tourism, Cultural Ties, and Public Opinion in Russia–Japan Cooperation 31 Conclusions and Recommendations 34 About the Authors 37 RUSSIA–JAPAN RELATIONS: NEW STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT Foreword Alexander Panov Сurrent situation in the Asia Pacific is increasingly influenced by rapidly deve- loping global processes related to the formation of a new balance of powers on the world stage, as well as exacerbating regional problems – the situation on the Korean Peninsula, territorial disputes, and trade and economic disagreements. The struggle for regional leadership between the world’s two most powerful and influential nations, China and the United States, is becoming increasingly appar- ent. And on many issues the countries in the region are faced with the difficult choice of which of these two states to follow. Not only has China caught up with the United States in terms of its impact on the regional politics and countries, but it also lays claim to leading positions. The United States is trying to prevent the weakening of its role in Asia Pacific affairs, increasing its military presence in the region, strengthening and modernizing its military and political alliances with Japan and South Korea in response to the new geopolitical realities, and promoting the concept of the Indo-Pacific that is basically aimed at containing China from the south. South Korea is trying to manoeuvre between Washington and Beijing and estab- lish contacts with Pyongyang, fearing above all else that the uncontrolled esca- lation on the Korean Peninsula could lead to a military confrontation with cata- strophic consequences for the people of both the South and the North. North Korea has long been stubbornly independent in its policy on the nuclear missile programme. However, under the influence of sanctions, and at the “advice” of Beijing, Pyongyang has made certain concessions to Washington, declaring its willingness to cut back on its nuclear ambitions. At the same time, while the direct dialogue between the U.S. and North Korean leaders may have led to a certain easing of tensions on the Korean Peninsula, it has not actually resolved any of the issues that gave rise to the North Korean crisis in 2017. India pursues a multilateral policy of constructive relations with all the coun- tries in the region incliding the United States, Russia, China, North Korea, South Korea and the ASEAN countries. New Delhi is not looking to take on a significant role in the Asia Pacific. At the same time, India–China relations are complicated by a number of contradictions. New Delhi opposes the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. Certain tensions remain with regard to the border shared by the two countries. ASEAN countries are trying to pursue an independent policy, but are increas- ingly coming under pressure from their “big neighbours” – the United States and China, who want to drag them onto their side. Russia, compensating for its limited economic and military-political presence in the region, continues to focus on strengthening relations with China on the basis of the comprehensive strategic partnership, as well as on preserving its tradition- 4 Working Paper 50 / 2019 FOREWORD ally friendly relations with India and developing diverse relations with the ASEAN countries. Against the background of multi-faceted threats from North Korea and China, Japan is, on the one hand, stepping up its military and political cooperation with the United States. On the other hand, unsure of the U.S.’s commitment to Jap- anese interests when implementing specific actions with regard to China and North Korea, it is attempting, within certain limits, to carve out its own path in relations with China, and to a much greater degree in its interaction with Russia.