China's Influence in Japan
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JULY 2020 China’s Influence in Japan Everywhere Yet Nowhere in Particular AUTHOR Devin Stewart A Report of the CSIS SOUTHEAST ASIA PROGRAM JULY 2020 China’s Influence in Japan Everywhere Yet Nowhere in Particular AUTHOR Devin Stewart A Report of the CSIS Southeast Asia Program About CSIS The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the world’s greatest challenges. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS’s purpose is to define the future of national security. We are guided by a distinct set of values—nonpartisanship, independent thought, innovative thinking, cross-disciplinary scholarship, integrity and professionalism, and talent development. CSIS’s values work in concert toward the goal of making real-world impact. CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise, judgment, and robust networks to their research, analysis, and recommendations. We organize conferences, publish, lecture, and make media appearances that aim to increase the knowledge, awareness, and salience of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the interested public. CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking of key influencers. We work toward a vision of a safer and more prosperous world. CSIS is ranked the number one think tank in the United States as well as the defense and national security center of excellence for 2016-2018 by the University of Pennsylvania’s “Global Go To Think Tank Index.” CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Center for Strategic & International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20036 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org China’s Influence in Japan: Everywhere Yet Nowhere in Particular | II Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Ayano Tsunoda, Erika Bulach, Gray Gaertner, Ken Silverman, and Perry Landesberg for their research assistance on this report. This publication was made possible by the Global Engagement Center at the U.S. Department of State, through the Information Access Fund (IAF) administered by the DT Institute. The opinions, conclusions, or recommendations contained herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the view of the U.S. government or the IAF. Devin Stewart | III Contents Introduction 1 1 | China’s Tactics to Influence Japan 3 2 | Resilience and Vulnerabilities: Traits Unique to Japan 19 3 | Responses: Lessons from Japan’s Experience 33 4 | Conclusions: Japan as a Negative Case of CCP Influence 45 About the Author 47 China’s Influence in Japan: Everywhere Yet Nowhere in Particular | IV Introduction Starting in 2018, the uncertainty generated from the U.S.-China trade war had compelled two longtime rivals and the world’s second and third largest economies, China and Japan, to temporarily put aside their differences. To that end, they pursued a pragmatic “tactical détente” or “new start” in the relationship, emphasizing shared interests in trade, tourism, and diplomacy. Tokyo’s business-friendly associations and officials also pushed in this direction domestically. The result has been a nuanced hedging strategy toward Beijing that aims to derive economic benefit from the Chinese economy while protecting the nation from malign influence. Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s scheduled spring 2020 state visit to Japan (later postponed due to Covid-19) was a potential litmus test for producing a “fifth political document” defining the improving relationship. In line with China’s global propaganda aims, Beijing had aimed to use that document to further legitimize its global leadership and ambitious economic projects.1 Under Xi, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has embarked on a global influence campaign, including the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to fortify the CCP’s image more than disrupt global politics and place China among the world’s “great powers.” What can we make of China’s influence activities in Japan, a historic geopolitical rival? This inductive project sought to understand how different democracies handled foreign influence activities. It does so by looking at the “demand” side or consumption of foreign influence rather than the “supply” side or production of foreign influence (as many other studies do). Additionally, a distinction should be made between the CCP, China as a country, and the Chinese nation. While the CCP claims to represent the Chinese people, the two entities should not be conflated. In this study, however, in order to examine the “demand” side of influence, the three terms are less sharply distinct, reflecting attitudes in Japan toward China in general. Japan’s resilience toward the CCP’s influence is wrapped in its comprehensive relationship with China. The consensus of about 40 experts interviewed over a two-year period (2018-2019) for this project stated confidently—and even pridefully—that China’s influence in Japan remains limited compared with other democracies. “Influence,” as understood by experts in Japan, constitutes efforts by the Chinese government or government affiliated entities 1. Nagai Oki, “Beijing readies new political document for China-Japan ties,” Nikkei Asian Review, August 12, 2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Beijing-readies-new-political-document-for-China-Japan-ties. Devin Stewart | 1 to shape Japanese views and actions in the CCP’s favor.2 This finding is consistent with recent reports by the Hoover Institution, Hudson Institute, Jamestown Foundation, and others.3 But this paper does something different. It attempts to answer why CCP influence is limited in Japan. This report will explore underlying factors, Japanese responses, and possible lessons for other countries wrestling with similar issues. Unlike other wealthy democracies, Japan has generally resisted influence activities from China, its massive neighbor, due to liberal democratic virtues as well as deficits. They include strict campaign finance rules, regulations favoring domestic industry at the expense of foreigners, a homogenous population, a politically apathetic public, political stability, relative historic isolation from foreign influence, an “oligopolistic” media landscape, and popular suspicion toward China. Anyone who travels to Japan knows that Chinese political influence in Japan is like air: it is everywhere yet nowhere in particular.4 As Koichi Nakano of Sophia University told us, “This is a hard topic because China’s influence is more subtle here compared to other places. China’s influence has been in Japan forever, so it’s not visible or not new. It’s not in your face . maybe it’s because China saw Japan as a steppingstone for development and now no longer needs it.” Chinese cultural influence in Japan is ubiquitous; it pervades the language, art, cuisine, literature, architecture, music, law, and philosophy. After two millennia of intense China-Japan relations (documentation of the bilateral relationship dates back to the year 57AD), including wars, invasions, and rivalries, Japanese society is accustomed to living side-by-side with China yet not necessarily together, and the country has proved to be relatively impenetrable to Chinese political warfare.5 Moreover, China risks pushback from the Japanese public over its influence activities. The global reaction to China’s role in the Covid-19 crisis, attempted cover-up, and propaganda campaign to take credit and avoid blame suggests that such a backlash may increasingly become a global norm as global awareness of CCP meddling increases. 2. A close concept is “political warfare,” which American diplomat George Kennan defined in 1948 as “the employment of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. Such operations are both overt and covert. They range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures, and ‘white’ propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of ‘friendly’ foreign elements, ‘black’ psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.” From “269. Policy Planning Staff Memorandum,” U.S. State Department’s Office of the Historian, May 4, 1948, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1945-50Intel/d269. 3. Larry Diamond and Orville Schell, eds., China’s Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance (Washington, DC: Hoover Institution, November 29, 2018), https://www.hoover.org/research/chinas-influence-amer- ican-interests-promoting-constructive-vigilance; Eric Ressler, “Information Warfare: the Communist Party of China’s Influence Operations in the United States and Japan,” Hudson Institute, August 29, 2018, https://www.carnegie- council.org/publications/articles_papers_reports/information-warfare-communist-party-of-china-influence-opera- tions-in-us-and-japan; and Russell Hsiao, “A Preliminary Survey of CCP Influence Operations in Japan Publication: China Brief,” Jamestown Foundation, China Brief 19, no. 12, June 26, 2019, https://jamestown.org/program/a-prelimi- nary-survey-of-ccp-influence-operations-in-japan/. 4. The author suggested