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Colliers International Research & Forecast Report AUSTIN | OFFICE Q3 2019 Construction continues as tech companies keep taking space in Austin Kaitlin Holm Research and Marketing Coordinator | Austin Boots On The Ground Commentary by Volney Campbell Future Forecast Our “Boots on the Ground” viewpoint is the voice of our experts, who Historically, Austin’s major tech employers have included the likes have broken down the market data and compared it to what they are of Dell, AMD, Cirrus Logic, Samsung and Motorola; however, in the seeing for themselves. This is their take on what the numbers actually last few years the expansions from Google, Facebook, Amazon/ mean for the Austin office market. Whole Foods, Oracle, Apple and Indeed have changed the landscape in Austin for the foreseeable future. All six groups have placed In traveling around the country on business it seems if almost major bets on Austin totaling over 5,000,000 square feet of space everyone is at least familiar with Austin and many know a great leased indicating that this Austin run is not over and may not even deal about the city and its growth. So well published has our be in the final innings of the game. Yes, Austin will experience meteoric rise been from a small government city 30 years ago, to growing pains, but the investment in our city paints a pretty nice approaching tier one status as a technology hub, I guess I should picture of the future. Even if it will not be the same as it was. not be surprised. Recently, more questions are surfacing about where I see Austin in the future and is it due for a setback? By The Numbers - Austin’s Office Market It’s not hard to find locals that think the Austin they knew is already a relic of the past. Gone are the empty freeways at rush hour, and TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL VACANCY their favorite music venue has recently closed, so to them Austin 59.2M SF 11.5% will never be the same. News Flash: every city evolves. They all change and morph as technology, jobs and the people that define the city change. Even though I wish traffic was better, I believe Q3 NET ABSORPTION YTD NET ABSORPTION Austin has a great future ahead. -1,117,048 SF -533,787 SF Demographers believe that Austin will top 3 million people in the TOTAL UNDER SMSA by 2027, led by enormous growth in cutting-edge S.T.E.M. TOTAL PRE-LEASED CONSTRUCTION jobs that will shape our country’s future. The unfounded fear 2.61M SF that somehow Austin is poised for a major setback seems hard 5.74M SF to imagine, despite large development plans currently underway. AVERAGE CBD CLASS A SUBURBAN CLASS A Employers go where they can find talent and if the talent is RATE/SF not there currently, can they attract it? According to the Austin $60.57 as tracked by Colliers $37.83 Chamber of Commerce, Austin has one of the highest percentages $35.38 of relocating employees whose company is moving to Austin, *Rates inclusive of estimated operating expenses. sometimes it is 70% or above, which is a rare number in their experience. Additionally, with approximately 145 people moving to Austin every day, clearly it can attract talent as well as relocate it. Employers want a well-educated workforce, 49.8% of Austin’s workforce has a bachelor’s degree or higher and is a city with the pull to continue to attract similar talent in the future. Austin Office Overview In the third quarter of 2019, Austin’s office market reported ANNUAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY 1,117,048 SF of negative net absorption. The majority of the negative absorption occurred in Class A buildings with a total of 1,250,402 Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy 1,200,000 18.0 SF of negative net absorption. Class B buildings in Austin posted 16.0 180,024 SF of positive net absorption, while Class C properties 1,000,000 14.0 posted 46,670 SF of negative net absorption. 800,000 12.0 Currently, 5,746,652 SF of office space is under construction and 600,000 10.0 2,613,396 SF of that is pre-leased. The fourth quarter of 2019 400,000 8.0 6.0 is expected to see 1,225,777 SF of deliveries and 824,576 SF of 200,000 that is pre-leased. One of the buildings set to deliver in the fourth 4.0 0 quarter of 2019 is Domain 12. The entire 320,102 SF building was 2.0 100% leased by Facebook in September 2018. -200,000 0.0 The Foundry in the East submarket was the largest building to deliver in the third quarter. This 75,369 SF building delivered in August and is 89.1% leased. One of the tenants that pre-leased at The Foundry is DPR Construction, leasing 28,000 square feet. The final quarter of 2019 is expected to see eighteen new buildings come online. Market Indicators Annual Quarterly Quarterly The citywide average rental rate decreased over the quarter from Relative to prior period Change Change Forecast* $35.72 per SF in Q2 2019 to $35.38 per SF in Q3 2019. Class A VACANCY rental rates in Austin’s CBD slid by 6.2% over the quarter to $49.47 per SF up from $52.78 per SF in the second quarter of 2019. The NET ABSORPTION overall suburban Class A rental rate also fell, from $37.97 per SF to NEW CONSTRUCTION $37.83 per SF, over the quarter. UNDER CONSTRUCTION In September, PwC and Urban Land Institute announced that Austin has been ranked the best market for real estate investment *Projected in 2020. Austin ranked first in front of Raleigh-Durham, Nashville, Charlotte, Boston and even beat out the current number one market, Dallas/Fort Worth. According to the study from PwC and the Urban Land Institute, Austin will be a solid “buy” market Summary Statistics for industrial, office and multifamily properties. The report also Austin Office Market Q3 2018 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 noted that the population growth rate of Austin is three times the Vacancy Rate 10.2% 9.3% 11.5% population growth rate of the United States. Net Absorption .395 .565 -1.11 Vacancy & Availability (Million Square Feet) New Construction Austin’s citywide vacancy rate increased from 9.3% in the second (Million Square Feet) .346 2.46 .781 quarter of 2019 to 11.5% in the third quarter of 2019. The Southeast Under Construction submarket’s Class A vacancy rate reported that more than 355,000 (Million Square Feet) 3.98 5.29 5.75 square feet became available in the third quarter, which is why they had the largest jump in vacancy moving from 7.6% in Q2 2019 to Class A Vacancy Rate CBD 6.0% 5.9% 6.2% 34.6% in Q3 2019. This could be caused in part by 40,000 square Suburban 11.0% 8.9% 14.8% feet being vacated at 5202 East Ben White Boulevard. Gross Asking Rents The largest decline in vacancy happened in the Class B Northeast Per Square Foot Per Year submarket, where the rate decreased from 28.4% to 23.1%, which Average $35.09 $35.72 $35.38 is due to over 57,000 square feet being taken off the market. CBD Class A $50.82 $52.78 $49.47 Overall suburban vacancy increased quarter over quarter from Suburban Class A $36.92 $37.97 $37.83 9.3% in Q2 2019 to 11.5% in Q3 2019, while the CBD’s vacancy rate rose marginally over the quarter from 5.7% to 5.8%. 2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q3 2019 | Office | Colliers International QUARTERLY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY Job Growth & Unemployment Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy (not seasonally adjusted) 1,200,000 14.0% UNEMPLOYMENT 8/18 8/19 1,000,000 12.0% 3.1% 2.8% 800,000 10.0% AUSTIN 600,000 8.0% TEXAS 4.0% 3.7% 400,000 6.0% U.S. 3.9% 3.8% 200,000 4.0% 0 2.0% Annual # of Jobs JOB GROWTH Change Added -200,000 0.0% AUSTIN 2.1% 22.2K Absorption & Demand TEXAS 2.3% 292.2K Austin’s office market posted 1,117,048 square feet of negative net U.S. 1.4% 2.1M absorption in Q3 2019. Only six submarkets experienced positive absorption over the quarter, including Cedar Park, East, Far Northwest, Northeast, South and Southwest. CBD vs. Suburban A majority of the negative net absorption over the quarter occurred in the Class A Northwest submarket, totaling 1,218,514 square feet CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY of negative absorption. In August, a 30,870 square foot sublease 16.0% space was put on the market at Riata Corporate Park 7 and was part of the reason the submarket’s net absorption number dropped 14.0% quite a bit. In all, 249,809 square feet became available in the Class 12.0% A Northwest submarket. 10.0% The Southwest submarket helped bring the absorption number 8.0% closer to zero with 76,343 square feet of positive net absorption. The majority of the absorption in the Southwest submarket 6.0% happened in Class A space and can be partially attributed to Aeglea 4.0% BioTherapeutics, Inc moving into their 30,026 square feet space at Las Cimas III (805 Las Cimas Parkway). 2.0% 0.0% The Austin market recorded thirty-eight leases over 10,000 square feet signed in the third quarter with some big block leases leading the way.
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