2018 Proves to Be Another Robust Year for Austin Office Market Vacancy Under Construction Deliveries Net Absorption Avg
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MARKETVIEW Austin Office, Q4 2018 2018 proves to be another robust year for Austin office market Vacancy Under Construction Deliveries Net Absorption Avg. Asking Rate 9.6% 4,913,727 SF 0 SF 723,773 SF $36.64 PSF *Arrows indicate change from previous quarter. Figure 1: Net Absorption and Vacancy Net Absorption (000s SF) Vacancy Rate (%) 2,200 26 1,400 21 600 16 (200) 11 (1,000) 6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Annual Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2018. As 2018 draws to a close, absorption levels in the The cooling temperatures that have settled across office market completely rebounded from the flat the Texas Hill Country have had zero effect on first half of the year, surpassing 1.3 million sq. ft. subduing rising operational costs throughout of positive net demand for the year. As vacancy Austin. Costs rose to $10.60 per sq. ft. in Q4 2018, a slipped below 10% and citywide average asking $0.22 increase from Q3 2018. The citywide NNN rates climbed to a new historic high, developers asking rate increased $0.93, rising to $26.04 per sq. demonstrated their continued faith in Austin’s ft. Combined, the Full Service Gross asking rate for upward momentum by kicking off an additional Q4 2018 was $36.64 per sq. ft., a new record high 500,000 sq. ft. of new construction. for the Austin market. Tenant demand remains robust leading into 2019, with more than 9 million End of year absorption activity registered 723,773 sq. ft. of tenant demand currently in the market. sq. ft. of positive net demand, bringing the annual total to 1,380,173 sq. ft.; this is the 5th year in a row The Austin Business-Cycle Index (a collection of that Austin has seen yearly absorption crest 1 employment and payroll indicators) expanded at million sq. ft. Vacancy rates decreased 50 basis 7.9% in Q4 2018, above the long-term growth points from 10.2% in Q3 2018 to 9.6% in Q4 2018. average of 6.0%. Total employment in 2018 has The booming development pipeline added an increased by 3.4%, with the Construction and additional 500,000 sq. ft. in Q4 2018, bringing the Mining sector being the largest contributor to job total to 4,913,727 sq. ft. across 37 projects. growth in Austin. Q4 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE, Inc. | 1 MARKETVIEW AUSTIN OFFICE Figure 2: Austin Office Market Statistics Net Total Total Avg. FSG Under Q4 2018 Q4 2018 2018 Submarket Rentable Vacancy Availability Asking Construction Deliveries Net Net Area (%) (%) Rate ($) (SF) (SF) Absorption Absorption CBD 10,996,720 6.3 8.8 47.88 1,539,304 - 162,083 558,794 Class A 8,073,060 5.0 7.4 52.66 1,539,304 - 160,000 498,170 Class B 2,611,510 10.0 11.6 43.47 - - 3,778 54,999 Northwest 14,549,865 9.1 11.5 36.72 709,519 - 483,533 445,607 Class A 8,959,927 9.5 12.3 40.68 709,519 - 359,387 432,180 Class B 5,411,806 8.4 10.3 32.59 - - 132,741 22,518 Far Northwest 4,531,614 6.6 12.1 32.76 396,329 - 53,518 77,807 Class A 3,012,320 7.6 11.1 35.70 396,329 - 54,221 117,876 Class B 1,392,161 4.7 14.9 29.45 - - (5,668) (37,082) Northeast 2,103,166 16.4 24.8 28.00 204,390 - 28,897 (35,900) Class A 1,031,394 17.1 26.2 28.56 - - 2,393 (30,172) Class B 891,268 18.3 19.8 25.23 204,390 - 27,056 (9,772) North 734,307 13.6 15.4 27.80 - - (28,432) 45,653 Class A - - - N/A - - - 18,578 Class B 723,307 13.2 15.0 27.8 - - (28,432) 27,075 Central 1,930,818 10.2 12.3 33.14 205,161 - (20,809) (1,941) Class A 522,914 8.2 11.3 45.42 178,770 - (20,238) 45,368 Class B 1,218,995 11.2 13.1 29.96 26,391 - (41) (34,285) Round Rock 864,126 21.0 22.3 27.88 59,476 - (12,373) 899 Class A 151,134 77.3 77.3 31.15 - - - 1,050 Class B 670,874 9.3 10.9 24.63 59,476 - (12,373) 2,364 East 711,658 17.0 17.2 43.82 1,004,146 - (8,279) (24,059) Class A 149,360 61.0 61.8 46.72 793,146 - (9,637) (4,771) Class B 452,823 5.0 5.0 38.17 211,000 - 1,358 (19,288) South 1,141,364 4.4 4.9 31.00 170,183 - (11,898) 102,221 Class A 399,458 1.3 1.3 47.93 129,201 - (5,191) 110,596 Class B 405,857 2.2 3.7 34.80 40,982 - 4,648 15,493 Southeast 1,127,958 16.1 16.4 26.47 138,850 - 45,028 49,905 Class A 155,022 13.4 13.4 31.62 71,225 - 3,456 (13,117) Class B 876,225 17.8 18.2 27.46 67,625 - 41,572 61,135 Southwest 11,102,764 11.4 15.7 36.64 486,369 - 32,505 161,187 Class A 7,730,533 12.1 17.7 40.93 427,102 - 21,068 159,621 Class B 3,225,191 9.9 11.4 31.00 59,267 - 10,743 (536) Austin Total 49,794,360 9.6 12.8 36.64 4,913,727 - 723,773 1,380,173 Class A 30,185,122 9.5 13.1 42.25 4,244,596 - 565,459 1,335,379 Class B 17,880,017 9.8 12.0 31.84 669,131 - 175,382 82,621 Although Class C is not shown, totals are inclusive of all classes of data. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2018. Q4 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE, Inc. | 2 MARKETVIEW AUSTIN OFFICE Figure 3: Austin Labor Force & Unemployment (%) (Thousands) 8 1,300 Forecast 7 1,100 6 900 5 700 4 3 500 2 300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total Employment (Non-Farm) Unemployment Rate Source: Moody’s Analytics, October 2018. Figure 4: Historical Construction and Deliveries MSF 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Under Construction Delivered Construction Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2018. Figure 5: Significant Leases / Sales of Q4 2018 Figure 6: Q4 2018 Signed Leases by Industry Lease (Tenant) Property Total SF 22% Cognitive Scale Inc 9500 Arboretum 54,070 31% EBQuickstart Bergstrom Tech Center 41,406 Industrious 823 Congress 23,659 20% 6% Sale (Building) Address Total SF 4% 18% Prominent Pointe I & II 8310 N Capital of Texas 252,943 Technology Business Services Engineering Cambridge Tower 1801 Lavaca St 240,000 Financial Health Other Source: CBRE Research, Real Capital Analytics, Q4 2018. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2018. Q4 2018 CBRE Research © 2018 CBRE, Inc. | 3 MARKETVIEW AUSTIN OFFICE Figure 7: Historical Market Statistics 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD 2018 CBD Absorption (Net SF) 167,794 177,023 64,099 369,822 649,300 97,639 564,236 558,794 Asking Rent, Avg. Annual 34.07 36.08 38.15 40.1 41.33 47.67 44.95 47.88 Delivered Construction (SF) - - - 167,871 557,470 195,863 745,936 122,667 Vacancy Rate (%) 13.3 12 12 9.4 7.1 7.8 7.9 6.3 NORTHWEST Absorption (Net SF) 1,103,368 677,714 179,614 224,246 669,701 286,950 471,598 445,607 Asking Rent, Avg. Annual 25.37 25.83 26.28 29.48 31.96 32.8 33.84 36.72 Delivered Construction (SF) - - - 143,331 591,973 372,235 386,921 308,000 Vacancy Rate (%) 20.2 15.3 10.4 9.4 8.8 8.8 8.6 9.1 FAR NORTHWEST * Absorption (Net SF) N/A N/A 366,763 79,360 198,389 336,470 230,820 77,807 Asking Rent, Avg. Annual N/A N/A 27.85 28.95 30.95 30.62 31.79 32.76 Delivered Construction (SF) N/A N/A - - 128,700 - - - Vacancy Rate (%) N/A N/A 12.2 13.8 9.5 9.4 6.3 6.6 NORTHEAST ** Absorption (Net SF) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 64,819 (35,900) Asking Rent, Avg. Annual N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 24.05 28.00 Delivered Construction (SF) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 115,000 Vacancy Rate (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 9.6 16.4 NORTH CENTRAL*** Absorption (Net SF) 103,556 (109,170) 90,741 222,683 90,066 251,093 N/A N/A Asking Rent, Avg. Annual 21.12 21.63 23.14 22.89 27.29 25.95 N/A N/A Delivered Construction (SF) - - - - 214,962 46,000 N/A N/A Vacancy Rate (%) 21.6 23 23.8 15.4 13.1 10.2 N/A N/A NORTH** Absorption (Net SF) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A (18,159) 45,653 Asking Rent, Avg.