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The Decade Ends with Even More Construction in Austin's Office Market

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The Decade Ends with Even More Construction in Austin's Office Market Research & Forecast Report AUSTIN | OFFICE Q4 2019 The decade ends with even more construction in Austin’s office market Kaitlin Holm Research and Marketing Coordinator | Austin Boots On The Ground Commentary by Ally Dorris Future Forecast Our “Boots on the Ground” viewpoint is the voice of our experts, who While the loudest buzz is in downtown, Austin’s periphery is in the have broken down the market data and compared it to what they are growth path as well. Amazon has proposed an extraordinary 3.8 seeing for themselves. This is their take on what the numbers actually million square foot distribution center in Pflugerville. On top of that, mean for the Austin office market. an additional 120 acres is rezoned for a mixed-use development in Pflugerville, deemed NorthPointe. Williamson County’s popularity As anticipated, based on the last five years’ worth of quarterly has sky-rocketed thanks to new developments on the horizon reports, the Austin commercial market closed out the decade firing like the one billion dollar Apple campus. According to the Texas on all cylinders. Q4 of 2019 was the cherry on top of another year Demographic Center, the population of the North Austin/Round of growth and development in the Texas capitol city. As venture Rock metro will top 1.6 million by 2050, which would quadruple the capital funding hit a record high of $2.2 billion, construction number at the start of the decade, which was 422,679. continues and more cranes pop up all over the city, there is no sign of slowing down in this tech hub as we enter into the new age- 20’s. By The Numbers - Austin’s Office Market This last quarter unveiled a lot of what is to come in the next cycle TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL VACANCY of developments, especially in downtown. Avid, local developer, Endeavor, acquired more prominent land near the CBD that is ripe 59.3M SF 11.9% for redevelopment. Purchases include a high-profile retail center at 6th Street and Lamar Boulevard that houses the well-known Q4 NET ABSORPTION YTD NET ABSORPTION record store, Waterloo Records and one of ELM Restaurant Group’s popular eateries, 24 Diner, also included is the land that sits under -315,567 SF -595,543 SF Aussie’s and Zax Restaurant, both of which are in the heart of TOTAL UNDER the South Central Waterfront. Cielo also made another splash in TOTAL PRE-LEASED CONSTRUCTION Austin’s development pool with the purchase of a 0.81-acre tract 2.38M SF at 5th and Brazos. The tract, improved with 39 condominium units, 7.15M SF was reportedly purchased for $55,000,000. Cielo’s press release AVERAGE CBD CLASS A indicated it could be built up to about 885,000 square feet. SUBURBAN CLASS A RATE/SF $60.61 As the acquisitions of Austin’s limited land continues, construction $35.84 as tracked by Colliers $38.10 marches on with more ground breaking ceremonies taking place, Rates inclusive of estimated operating expenses. Average rates include including 701 Rio, the 120,000 SF office building that sits one block sublease rates, which are much lower than direct rates. from the West 6th Entertainment District, as well as Aquila’s new east side project known as Eastlake at Tillery. Construction also began on the University of Texas’s highly anticipated Moody Center, a 10,000-seat arena which will be the new home for Longhorn basketball games and other major events. Austin Office Overview In the fourth quarter of 2019, Austin’s office market reported ANNUAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY 315,567 SF of negative net absorption. A large amount of the negative absorption occurred in Class B buildings with a total Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy 1,200,000 16.0 of 229,982 SF of negative net absorption. Class A buildings in Austin posted 59,537 SF of negative net absorption, while Class C 1,000,000 14.0 properties recorded 26,048 SF of negative net absorption. 800,000 12.0 600,000 10.0 Currently, 7,159,195 SF of office space is under construction and 400,000 8.0 2,386,911 SF of that is pre-leased. The first quarter of 2020 is 200,000 6.0 expected to record 2,155,243 SF of deliveries and 1,248,873 SF of that is pre-leased. One of the buildings set to deliver in the first 0 4.0 quarter of 2020 is Domain 10. The entire 299,673 SF building is -200,000 2.0 100% leased with Amazon taking at least 252,267 SF. -400,000 0.0 Rollingwood Town Center III in the Southwest submarket was the largest building to deliver in the fourth quarter. This 128,000 SF building delivered in December and is 100% leased. One of the tenants that pre-leased at the newest Rollingwood building is Greystar, leasing 18,328 SF. The first quarter of 2020 is expected to see sixteen new buildings come online. Market Indicators Annual Quarterly Quarterly The citywide average rental rate increased over the quarter from Relative to prior period Change Change Forecast* $35.51 per SF in Q3 2019 to $35.84 per SF in Q4 2019. Class A VACANCY rental rates in Austin’s CBD increased by 7.8% over the quarter to $53.33 per SF up from $49.47 per SF in the third quarter of NET ABSORPTION 2019. The overall suburban Class A rental rate also increased, from NEW CONSTRUCTION $37.83 per SF to $38.10 per SF, over the quarter. UNDER CONSTRUCTION In December, CompTIA announced that Austin has been ranked the number one Tech Town, moving up from number three in 2018. *Projected CompTIA’s index looks at tech job postings, wages, cost of living, projected job growth, etc to create the ranking. The report stated, “Austin’s reputation for ‘weirdness’ is among the many reasons newbie tech companies are choosing it as their home base, with the Summary Statistics hope that the city’s progressive culture and out-of-the-box thinking Austin Office Market Q4 2018 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 will inspire innovation”. Austin ranked first in front of Raleigh (NC), Vacancy Rate 9.9% 11.2% 11.9% San Jose (CA), Seattle (WA) and San Francisco (CA). Net Absorption .642 -.989 -.315 Vacancy & Availability (Million Square Feet) New Construction Austin’s citywide vacancy rate increased from 11.2% in the third (Million Square Feet) 1.45 .781 1.88 quarter of 2019 to 11.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019. The North/ Under Construction Domain submarket’s Class C vacancy rate had the largest jump in (Million Square Feet) 4.26 5.74 7.15 vacancy moving from 0% in Q3 2019 to 34.3% in Q4 2019. This was caused entirely by 15,363 SF being vacated at the Epoch Class A Vacancy Rate CBD 5.9% 6.2% 7.1% Building (2404 Rutland Drive). Suburban 11.2% 14.9% 15.3% The largest decline in vacancy happened in the Class B Far Gross Asking Rents Northeast submarket, where the rate decreased from 22.5% to Per Square Foot Per Year 15.7%, which is due to 23,770 SF at Tower of the Hills (13809 Average $35.98 $35.51 $35.84 Research Boulevard) being taken off the market. CBD Class A $51.85 $49.47 $53.33 Overall suburban vacancy increased quarter over quarter from Suburban Class A $37.91 $37.83 $38.10 12.5% in Q3 2019 to 13.2% in Q4 2019, and the CBD’s vacancy rate also rose over the quarter from 5.9% to 6.8%. 2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2019 | Office | Colliers International . QUARTERLY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY Job Growth & Unemployment Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy (not seasonally adjusted) 1,200,000 14.0% UNEMPLOYMENT 12/18 12/19 1,000,000 12.0% 800,000 10.0% AUSTIN 2.7% 2.4% 600,000 8.0% TEXAS 3.6% 3.3% 400,000 6.0% 3.7% 3.4% 200,000 U.S. 4.0% 0 -200,000 2.0% Annual # of Jobs JOB GROWTH Change Added -400,000 0.0% AUSTIN 3.5% 38K Absorption & Demand TEXAS 2.7% 344K Austin’s office market posted 315,567 SF of negative netabsorption U.S. 1.4% 2.1M in Q4 2019. Only five submarkets experienced positive absorption over the quarter, including Central, East, Far Northeast, South and Southwest. CBD vs. Suburban A large amount of the negative net absorption over the quarter occurred in the Class A Northwest submarket, totaling 454,460 CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY SF of negative absorption. In December, Nokia put 39,117 SF of 18.0% it’s space at Cisco Systems Office Park (12515 Research Blvd) 16.0% on the market for sublease. An additional 22,292 SF was put on the sublease market at Stonebridge Plaza I (9606 N MoPac 14.0% Expressway. In all, 249,699 SF became available in the Class A 12.0% Northwest submarket. 10.0% The Southwest submarket helped bring the absorption number 8.0% closer to zero with 129,470 SF of positive net absorption. The 6.0% majority of the absorption in the Southwest submarket happened 4.0% in Class A space and can be partially attributed to Advanced Micro Devices moving into its 25,938 SF space at 7171 Southwest 2.0% Parkway (Building 3). 0.0% The Austin market recorded thirty-seven leases over 10,000 SF each in the fourth quarter with a large renewal leading the way.
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