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COVID-19 Office Impact Report: Downtown Austin, Texas

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COVID-19 Office Impact Report: Downtown Austin, Texas September 2020 COVID-19 Office Impact Report Downtown Austin, Texas Introduction COVID-19 has temporarily changed almost every aspect This report has identified three important trends to our lives, including how we work, but it remains to be watch in the coming year or so that could impact our seen how much will change permanently. The primary office market. First, will the office market downtown purpose of this report is to lay the research groundwork absorb the record amount of office space currently necessary to understand the potential impact COVID-19 under construction and scheduled to deliver in the next will have on the downtown office market. The report will twelve months? Second, when will leasing activity in be updated periodically and may evolve to include new downtown rebound and return to pre-COVID-19 levels? trends should they arise. Finally, how will the sublease market evolve as all of this unfolds? While these questions remain unanswered, it is It's important to note that prior to the pandemic our important to monitor the trends to better understand downtown office market boasted extremely strong levels of impact and possible paths to recovery. market fundamentals. This will undoubtedly help. At the end of 2019 (Q4) our office space vacancy rate stood at 5.4% and had remained below 10% since the second quarter of 2011. The pandemic has already ticked that up to 8.2% and is expected to increase in the near future. With consistent occupancy rates and steadily growing rents, no one is surprised that developers have responded with project after project producing new inventory year after year. 1 / 5 SEPTEMBER 2020 COVID-19 Office Impact Report: Downtown Austin, Texas Downtown Office Supply Expanding Faster Than Ever Before entering the pandemic the downtown office market was in the midst of rapid expansion, with several buildings set to deliver between now and the end of 2021. Excluding the Apple Campus1, approximately half of all office space under construction is located in downtown. It will be important to monitor how smoothly this new supply is absorbed and observe whether or not downward pressure is placed on overall asking rents. Figure #1 Total SF Under Construction in Downtown and Share Citywide SF Under Construction % of Total Citywide 4M 100% 3M 75% 2M 50% 1M 25% otal Citywide % of T SF Under Construction 0 0 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure #2 Downtown Office Space Under Construction Property Name Office SF Est. Delivery Date Block 185 793,883 2022 Block 71 667,988 2021 6X Guadalupe 597,500 2022 300 Colorado 358,000 2021 River South 328,458 2021 1313 Red River 325,000 2022 1836 San Jacinto 230,609 2021 405 Colorado 228,606 2020 701 Rio Grande 116,929 2021 The Quincy 77,781 2021 Alexan Capitol 21,000 2021 Source: CoStar YTD = 9.10.2020 1. In December 2018 Apple announced their intention to build a 3 million square foot campus at 6900 Parmer Lane. Construction is expected to begin shortly as building permits have been filed. 2 / 5 SEPTEMBER 2020 COVID-19 Office Impact Report: Downtown Austin, Texas Leasing Activity in Downtown at Record Lows Leasing activity nationwide ground to a halt when the pandemic began in March. Leasing levels have remained well below recent years dropping below levels established during the Great Recession. Since the started of the pandemic, there have been no downtown leases signed greater than 50,000 SF. And our largest lease to date is a renewal and therefore didn't affect our rising vacancy rate. Figure #3 Total YTD Leasing Activity by SF in Downtown 2,000,000 SF 1,500,000 SF 1,000,000 SF 500,000 SF 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure #4 YTD Leasing Activity as % of 2019 Total SF Figure #5 YTD Largest Downtown Leases Signed 100% 111 Congress 46,000 SF 80% 701 E 5th 31,641 SF 60% 401 Congress 26,771 SF 40% 600 Congress 19,355 SF 20% 504 Lavaca 19,231 SF 0 19% 27% Downtown City 0 15,000 SF 30,000 SF 45,000 SF Source: CoStar YTD = 9.10.2020 3 / 5 SEPTEMBER 2020 COVID-19 Office Impact Report: Downtown Austin, Texas A New Supply Story in Downtown Downtown Austin office supply has been historically very tight, enabling new developments to be quickly absorbed. Figure 6 below illustrates a troubling new trend in our supply story. There has been a rapid increase in subleasing, both in existing square footage as well as spaces under construction. This is a remarkable shift in just six short months. We are seeing an unprecedented amount of sublet space added to the market, a 225% increase compared to 2019. For example, Parsley Energy has placed 154,532 SF on the market in 300 Colorado due to oil market concerns.2 Likewise, the Teachers Retirement System put up 100,992 SF in Block 71.2 While those two leases represent a large share of the new sublet inventory, there are many smaller leases that have also been placed on the market since the year began. Figure #6 Total YTD Sublet SF Available in Downtown Total Available Sublet SF Sublet SF as % of Total Available 1.2M 6% 1M 5% 0.8M 4% vailable 0.6M 3% otal A 0.4M 2% vailable Sublet SF 0.2M 1% otal A T 0 0 1 Sublet SF as % of T 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Figure #7 Top 6 Buildings by Sublet SF Available in Downtown Property Name Building Status Rentable Building Area (SF) Sublet Available Space (SF) 301 Congress Existing 446,839 129,617 One Eleven Congress Existing 518,385 112,522 Austin Centre Existing 326,335 95,417 Colorado Tower Existing 373,334 89,913 300 Coloroado Under Construction 358,000 154,532 Indeed Tower Under Construction 669,130 101,673 Source: CoStar YTD = 9.10.2020 2. CoStar as of 9.16.20 4 / 5 SEPTEMBER 2020 COVID-19 Office Impact Report: Downtown Austin, Texas Many Questions Remain Unanswered Many questions about the future of downtown's office market remain unanswered. At the top of everyone's mind is the great work-from-home debate that could impact central business districts nationally. The primary fear is that if talented employees want to spend less time in their downtown office, it may enable employers to hire more without necessarily increasing their total lease square footage. Major tech companies like Facebook and Google have yet to return to their offices and have signaled a permanent increase in their use of work-from- home options. Others have explored options to expand their lease space in an effort to promote a safe employee return. While downtown asking rents have only declined slightly for the first time in years, the increase in sublease inventory as well as new supply delivering may place additional pressures on rent if leasing activity remains low. The downtown office market will surely recover in the long run but it remains to be seen what the total short- term pandemic impact will be or if any new national trends will arise. Photo: Manuel Velasquez 5 / 5.
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