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Austin's Office Market Starts the Year Slow, but Steady

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Austin's Office Market Starts the Year Slow, but Steady Research & Forecast Report AUSTIN | OFFICE Q1 2018 Austin’s office market starts the year slow, but steady Kaitlin Holm Research and Marketing Coordinator | Austin Boots On The Ground Commentary by David Bremer Future Forecast Our “Boots on the Ground” view point is the voice of our experts, who Our recent forecasts have been correct and remain the same for have broken down the market data and compared it to what they are the next quarter; relatively flat rates with small increases only in seeing for themselves. This is their take on what the numbers actually prime markets, no meaningful over-delivery to help solve demand mean for the Austin office market. issues, etc. We’ve started to see some taxes come in for 2018 and unfortunately it seems the City of Austin is keeping the pedal to When you look at the numbers, the office market was relatively the metal. This may actually force some Landlords to lower rates flat in Q1 2018. Absorption was negligible, vacancy trended up to be competitive, but won’t actually help tenants’ bottom lines. slightly and rates increased. Our team believes that this “lack of Construction pricing seems to have leveled out which should hold activity” was based primarily on standard cyclical activity (i.e. improvement allowances steady. Lastly, we expect competition for lack of moves and deal-push over the holidays). On the ground, prime central space to remain strong as more and more national however, we’ve seen an uptick of activity and are tracking a large credit worthy tenants (without the same pricing sensitivities) grow. number of medium and large companies either new to Austin or If you’ve got good space, be prepared to act early and protect it. making considerable expansions. Landlords have noticed this as well and it has resulted in a slight uptick of rates even though By The Numbers vacancy went up and absorption went down. Operating expenses saw another increase, but thankfully the jump was relatively minor TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL VACANCY in comparison to recent quarters. 50.2M SF 11.2% In Q1 we saw another 792,705 SF of developments kick off, which brings the current under construction total in Austin to 3,456,491 SF. The construction pipeline remains full, but we’re still seeing Q1 NET ABSORPTION YTD NET ABSORPTION the majority of the “prime”, new projects being spoken for prior -336,598 SF -336,598 SF to delivery. We’d be very surprised if any of the CBD, East or South-Central properties deliver with any meaningful vacancy. TOTAL UNDER TOTAL PRE-LEASED The few Northwest/Round Rock properties that chose to go CONSTRUCTION spec are having relatively good leasing success and most other 1.8M SF shovel-ready sites continue to hold for anchor tenants. In terms of 3.4M SF activity, we’ve seen that the slowest market (as evidenced by lack AVERAGE CBD CLASS A SUBURBAN of sublease movement and/or direct absorption) is the Southwest RATE/SF $57.05 CLASS A submarket. $35.28 as tracked by Colliers $37.05 *Rates inclusive of estimated operating expenses. Austin Office Overview In the first quarter of 2018, Austin’s office market reported 336,598 ANNUAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY SF of negative net absorption. The majority of the negative absorption happened in class B buildings with a total of 278,779 Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy 1,000,000 25.0 SF of negative net absorption. Class A buildings in Austin posted 46,597 SF of negative net absorption and class C properties posted 800,000 20.0 11,222 SF of negative net absorption. 600,000 15.0 There is currently 3,456,491 SF of office space under construction 400,000 and 1,882,974 SF of that is pre-leased. The second quarter of 2018 10.0 is expected to see 810,680 SF of deliveries and 281,886 SF of 200,000 that is pre-leased. One of the buildings set to deliver in the second 5.0 0 quarter of 2018 is Springdale General. The 165,000 SF building is currently 81.8% pre-leased. Jones-Dilworth, Inc. is rumored to be -200,000 0.0 taking a large portion of Springdale General once it delivers. Oracle’s new 550,750 SF Campus at 2300 Cloud Way delivered in January and was the largest of the six buildings that delivered in the first quarter. Looking forward, the second quarter in 2018 is expected to see fourteen new buildings deliver. The citywide average rental rate increased over the quarter from Market Indicators Annual Quarterly Quarterly $34.79 per SF in Q4 2017 to $35.28 per SF in Q1 2018. Class A Relative to prior period Change Change Forecast* rental rates in Austin’s CBD decreased by 0.7% over the quarter VACANCY to $51.45 per SF from $51.85 per SF in the fourth quarter of 2017. Overall suburban Class A rental rates increased, from $36.05 per NET ABSORPTION SF to $37.05, over the quarter. NEW CONSTRUCTION In January, Business Insider released a list of the Amazon HQ2 UNDER CONSTRUCTION short-list cities and their ranking by likeliness to be chosen for the new headquarters. The ranking came from a compilation of *Projected predictions from places like Moody Analytics, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and more. Austin was ranked 3rd on the list behind Atlanta at #1 and Boston at #2. They quoted an article from Moody’s that stated “Austin has a much lower cost of Summary Statistics living than places such as Silicon Valley. Even though house prices Austin Office Market Q1 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 have been rising and are high for Texas or the South, they are well Vacancy Rate below those in California or the Northeast. Anecdotally the quality 11.2% 10.5% 11.2% of life is high, and many want to live in the ‘Silicon Hills.’ Further, Net Absorption .204 .525 -.336 being in Texas, Austin resides in a business-friendly state that (Million Square Feet) seeks to attract and keep companies.” New Construction (Million Square Feet) .842 .443 .792 Vacancy & Availability Under Construction (Million Square Feet) 2.81 3.84 3.45 Austin’s citywide vacancy rate increased from 10.5% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 11.2% in the first quarter of 2018. The CBD class Class A Vacancy Rate CBD 7.3% 9.8% 9.1% A vacancy rate decreased from 9.8% in the fourth quarter of 2017 Suburban 11.4% 10.2% 10.7% to 9.1% in first quarter in 2018. The suburban class A vacancy rate increased quarter over quarter from 10.2% to 10.7%. Gross Asking Rents Per Square Foot Per Year Overall suburban vacancy increased quarter over quarter from Average $33.85 $34.79 $35.28 11.0% in Q4 2017 to 11.8% in Q1 2018. The only submarkets that recorded a decrease in vacancy over the quarter include Cedar CBD Class A $49.25 $51.85 $51.45 Park and West Central. The Northeast submarket reported the Suburban Class A $34.42 $36.05 $37.05 largest increase in vacancy, climbing from 13.8% to 17.9% over the quarter. 2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q1 2018 | Office | Colliers International QUARTERLY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY Job Growth & Unemployment Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy (not seasonally adjusted) 1,200,000 16.0% UNEMPLOYMENT 2/17 2/18 1,000,000 14.0% 12.0% AUSTIN 3.5% 2.8% 800,000 10.0% 4.8% 4.1% 600,000 TEXAS 8.0% 400,000 U.S. 4.9% 4.4% 6.0% 200,000 4.0% 0 Annual # of Jobs 2.0% JOB GROWTH Change Added -200,000 0.0% AUSTIN 3.7% 37.3K TEXAS 2.4% 288.6K Absorption & Demand U.S. 1.6% 2.3M Austin’s office market posted 336,598 square feet of negative net absorption in Q1 2018. The four submarkets that experienced positive net absorption gains over the quarter include CBD, Cedar Park, Southeast and West Central. CBD vs. Suburban A majority of the positive net absorption in the first quarter CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY occurred in the class A Northeast submarket, totaling 36,240 16.0% square feet of positive net absorption. Some of this can be 14.0% attributed to Rackspace moving into an 87,884 square foot space at Northview Business Center (9001 I-35 North). The second 12.0% highest positive net absorption occurred in class B space in the Far 10.0% Northwest submarket, with 21,720 square feet absorbed in the first quarter, with an undisclosed tenant moving into a 10,828 square 8.0% foot space at Amber Oaks I (9401 Amberglen Boulevard). 6.0% The CBD submarket recorded the greatest number of leases for 4.0% spaces 10,000 square feet or larger in the first quarter. There were 2.0% ten leases signed in Q1 in the CBD submarket including Bank of America taking 51,549 square feet at Third + Shoal (208 Nueces 0.0% Street). The CBD submarket was also the submarket with the highest amount of square feet leased in Q1 with 192,490 square feet reported. One of the leases signed was Credit Shop’s 15,556 CBD Vacancy Suburban Vacancy square foot lease at 504 Lavaca Street. CLASS A OFFICE RENTS Rental Rates $50.00 According to CoStar, our data provider, Austin’s citywide average $45.00 rental rate increased over the quarter from $34.79 per SF to $40.00 $35.28 per SF.
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