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Austin's Office Market Is Fast, Competitive and Expensive

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Research & Forecast Report AUSTIN | OFFICE Q2 2018 Austin’s office market is fast, competitive and expensive Kaitlin Holm Research and Marketing Coordinator | Austin Boots On The Ground Commentary by David Bremer Future Forecast Our “Boots on the Ground” viewpoint is the voice of our experts, who If the rumor mill is correct, there are some more big deals coming have broken down the market data and compared it to what they are down the pipeline. Our market has been waiting patiently for new seeing for themselves. This is their take on what the numbers actually product to come to market in order to provide some breathing mean for the Austin office market. room, but as we get closer to buildings being delivered (Domain, North, East) and beginning construction (CBD), we’re hearing about Austin’s current office market can be summed up in three words: big corporate users preleasing space. We’ll give you a hint: Look at fast, competitive and expensive. While absorption decreased and the big users that have been taking down space for the past 3 years vacancy went up slightly in the second quarter, the market has and expect more of the same. We don’t think much of the space been extremely busy in comparison to past summer slowdowns. that is set to deliver over the next two years will deliver free and Rates and operating expenses have continued to trend upward, clear. As long as we don’t see a tech bust, we feel that the market primarily due to skyrocketing taxes. We are seeing competition is going to remain fast, competitive and expensive. for prime spaces in almost every submarket in the city. We are setting rental rate records in the CBD ($45+ operating expenses), Eastside properties continue to mimic the CBD’s upward rate By The Numbers trends (including the obligation to pay for parking at most new developments) and Class A suburban properties are commanding TOTAL INVENTORY TOTAL VACANCY record rental rates as well. “Fast” can be a bit misleading, but tenants are being forced to move on properties very quickly in 51.9M SF 12.3% order to separate themselves from competition. Deal pace has simultaneously slowed down as Landlords take their time to Q2 NET ABSORPTION YTD NET ABSORPTION negotiate and document the deal the way they want it. -446,698 SF -684,045 SF While small and medium sized office users are feeling the pain of TOTAL UNDER higher rents and operating expenses, the competition for space TOTAL PRE-LEASED isn’t as significant. There are plenty of options available, but CONSTRUCTION Landlords continue to push for longer lease terms (which are 4.09M SF 2.1M SF often necessary to cover increasing construction/improvement AVERAGE SUBURBAN expenses). With increasing rents, Austin follows the national trend CBD CLASS A RATE/SF CLASS A of trying to fit a lot of people in a small space. In the CBD, the $56.98 average tech tenant now targets 5.5 people per 1,000 SF, yet the $34.51 as tracked by Colliers $36.26 average parking ratio is closer to 2.5 per 1,000 SF. It’s important *Rates inclusive of estimated operating expenses. to do your homework and consider the possible pitfalls associated with high density: Are you at risk of triggering a density clause? Can you park your employees? Will the air conditioning and electric capacity keep up in August? Also, all tenants need to pay close attention to continuously rising construction costs. Taking the time to think through construction and get preliminary bids can be the difference between a great process and a messy one. Austin Office Overview In the second quarter of 2018, Austin’s office market reported ANNUAL ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY 446,698 SF of negative net absorption. The majority of the negative absorption happened in class A buildings with a total of 241,458 Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy 700,000 25.0 SF of negative net absorption. Class B buildings in Austin posted 218,469 SF of negative net absorption and class C properties 600,000 20.0 posted 13,229 SF of positive net absorption. 500,000 400,000 15.0 There is currently 4,090,698 SF of office space under construction 300,000 200,000 and 2,131,315 SF of that is pre-leased. The third quarter of 2018 is 10.0 expected to see 1,155,314 SF of deliveries and 729,396 SF of that 100,000 is pre-leased. One of the buildings set to deliver in the third quarter 0 5.0 of 2018 is Domain Tower. The entire 309,883 SF building has been -100,000 leased to Indeed.com, who is set to move in at the end of the year. -200,000 0.0 810 Barton Springs Road in the South submarket is WeWork’s newest location. The 90,500 SF building delivered in July 2018. 810 Barton was also the largest of the four buildings to deliver in the second quarter. Looking forward, the third quarter in 2018 is expected to see eleven new buildings deliver. The citywide average rental rate decreased over the quarter from Market Indicators Annual Quarterly Quarterly $35.06 per SF in Q1 2018 to $34.51 per SF in Q2 2018. Class A Relative to prior period Change Change Forecast* rental rates in Austin’s CBD decreased by 3.6% over the quarter VACANCY to $49.59 per SF from $51.45 per SF in the first quarter of 2018. Overall suburban Class A rental rates decreased, from $37.03 per NET ABSORPTION SF to $36.26, over the quarter. NEW CONSTRUCTION In April, Austin was named the best place to live in the United UNDER CONSTRUCTION States for the second year in the row by U.S News & World Report. This list ranks the top 125 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. and *Projected is based on affordability, job prospects and quality of life. Austin was followed on the list by Colorado Springs and Denver, Colorado. Des Moines, Iowa and Fayetteville, Arkansas rounded out the top five top places to live. San Antonio was ranked 14th on the list Summary Statistics and Dallas-Fort Worth was ranked 18th. Houston was ranked the Austin Office Market Q2 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 lowest of the major Texas metros, but it was ranked 26th on the list Vacancy Rate just below Boston, Massachusetts. 11.5% 11.2% 12.3% Net Absorption .369 .237 -.446 Vacancy & Availability (Million Square Feet) New Construction Austin’s citywide vacancy rate increased from 11.2% in the first (Million Square Feet) .000 .792 1.23 quarter of 2018 to 12.3% in the second quarter of 2018. The CBD Under Construction class A vacancy rate increased from 8.9% in the first quarter of (Million Square Feet) .095 3.45 4.09 2018 to 9.9% in the second quarter of 2018. The suburban class A vacancy rate increased quarter over quarter from 11.0% to 12.2%. Class A Vacancy Rate CBD 9.3% 8.9% 9.9% Suburban 11.4% 11.0% 12.2% Overall suburban vacancy increased quarter over quarter from 11.0% in Q1 2018 to 12.2% in Q2 2018. The only submarkets that Gross Asking Rents recorded a decrease in vacancy over the quarter include Cedar Per Square Foot Per Year Park, Central, East and South. The Southeast submarket reported Average $33.99 $35.06 $34.51 the largest increase in vacancy, climbing from 14.6% to 24.7% over the quarter. CBD Class A $49.84 $51.45 $49.59 Suburban Class A $34.69 $37.03 $36.26 2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q2 2018 | Office | Colliers International QUARTERLY ABSORPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY Job Growth & Unemployment Net Absorption New Supply Vacancy (not seasonally adjusted) 1,200,000 16.0% UNEMPLOYMENT 5/17 5/18 1,000,000 14.0% 12.0% 3.0% 2.8% 800,000 AUSTIN 10.0% 600,000 TEXAS 4.1% 3.7% 8.0% 400,000 U.S. 4.1% 3.6% 6.0% 200,000 4.0% 0 2.0% Annual # of Jobs JOB GROWTH Change Added -200,000 0.0% AUSTIN 3.3% 33.9K Absorption & Demand TEXAS 2.8% 344.7K Austin’s office market posted 446,698 square feet of negative net U.S. 1.6% 2.4M absorption in Q2 2018. The submarkets that experienced positive net absorption gains over the quarter include Cedar Park, Central, East, Round Rock, South and Southwest. We believe a lot of the negative absorption being recoreded on CoStar is due to some of CBD vs. Suburban Oracle’s old spaces being put on the market. CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY A majority of the positive net absorption over the quarter occurred 16.0% in the class A Northwest submarket, totaling 52,198 square feet of positive net absorption. Some of this can be attributed to Alcatel- 14.0% Lucent moving into their 38,044 SF space at Campus at the 12.0% Arboterum V (10431 Morado Cirle). The second highest positive 10.0% net absorption occurred in class B space in the Central submarket, with 44,108 square feet absorbed over the second quarter and with 8.0% three undisclosed tenants moving into a total of 71,720 square feet 6.0% of space throughout the submarket. 4.0% The Southwest submarket recorded the greatest number of leases for spaces 10,000 square feet or larger in the second quarter. 2.0% There were eight leases signed in Q2 in the Southwest submarket 0.0% including the City of Austin taking 25,137 square feet at Barton Oaks Plaza V (901 S MoPac Expressway).
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