Tea Market Update

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Tea Market Update Tea Market Update Volume 7 No 3 J u l y — September 2011 EXTERNAL FACTORS IMPACT TEA INDUSTRY The year 2011 commenced with optimism for the tea Kenya still shows a 30 million kilo crop decline but industry after five long years of buoyant tea prices is expected to bridge the gap by end of the year with which was unprecedented in the history. Due to pro- estimated shortfall of 15 million kilos. Sri Lanka is duction shortfalls , particularly in Kenya, Sri Lanka expected to show a decline of around 8 million kilos and India up to end of first half 2011, global tea by end of December. China is forecasted to show a prices were expected growth of at least 100 to hold at generally million kilos. Indonesia strong levels . Even apparently will be 10 the strong domestic million kilos down. consumption in When the global countries such as production figures are China and India fore- computed, it is casted bright tea estimated that the tea prices for producers. volumes for the year However the volatile 2011 would be showing situation in the Mid- a surplus of almost 100 dle East, Gulf and million kilos. India for North Africa, the the first is expected to tsunami and other up reach the one billion -heavels in Japan, the Specialty tea of the year—Moscow kilos mile stone. Simi- economic sanctions larly China is bound to on Iran as well as the depreciation of local currency create the largest ever production figure reaching in many consumer countries reacted adversely to close to 1.5 billion kilos. Therefore a deficit global boost tea prices. The deficit in tea production in production equation it is projected to reach a surplus India was wiped off by the third quarter and is show- situation putting further pressure on tea prices by end Tea Production 2 ing a surplus of 37million kilos as at end September. of the year. Cont. in page 5 …. Tea Marketing 3 General Overview Tea Exports 4 Economy Tea Industry Global Tea Scene 5 According to the General Statistics of Central Bank Escalation of cost of production per kilogram of releases, Sri Lanka’s textile and garments, rubber made tea due to wage hikes and prolonged drought based products, and food and beverages exports made huge blow to plantation companies specially Trade Fair Participa- 6 contributed more to the national GDP with double plantations spread at High and Mid grown region in tion digit growth for the fist eight months of 2011. While third quarter. Regime change turmoil in Middle services sector followed similar pattern of growth East and European debt crisis continued to weigh on for the period. Asian export markets. Following Colombo tea auc- News in Brief 6 Both earnings from exports and expenditure on tion prices behave disgusting for all three regions, imports increased further on a year-on-year basis till despite offering decreased during third quarter. August 2011. This resulted 50 percent imports Research Update 8 increased compare to the last year same period. Tea exports volume growth comes after two quar- Worker remittances of $3.3 billion and International ters of contraction, and indicates an annualized rate Sovereign Bonds of $ 3.1 billion helped the govern- of growth of 1.5%. Exports grew in the third quar- Editor-Sampath Perera ment to cover up the huge balance of trade balance ter, greatly buoying the Agriculture exports share, ($6 billion) for the period. Hence exchange rate which relies in sales to foreign trading reflecting a E-mail remained steady as average of Rs 109.75 for the third return to normality. [email protected] quarter 2011 also. The twelve month moving average of inflation Web-site Continue in page …………….5 www.pureceylontea.com ended at 7.2 percent in September 2011. Tea market update Volume 7. No. 3 P A G E 2 + Tea Production Private, and Plantation Management sectors followed During third quarter 2011, the total crop volume stood at 74.6 Mil- lion Kgs, which was marginally lower by 5.5% compared to 78.9 similar pattern in distribution of tea production based on Million Kgs recorded during same period of 2010.For the period, ownership, production come down compared to last year same period and further drop recorded in government under review only low grown production was recorded a margin- ally higher at 49.3Mkgs. It is depicted in table 1. estate sector as shown in table 2. Table 2 – Distribution of Tea Production (Jan- Table 1 - Tea production during the third quarter Sep) according to the Ownership (MKg) 2011(Million kg). 2011 2010 July - Sep Change % Sector Category Production % Production % Change 2011 2010 Qty % Private 135.9 55.4 136.9 54.9 -0.8 Elevation Plantation Co. 101.2 41.3 102.2 41.3 -1.0 High 14.7 17.0 (2.3) (13.5) Public 8.1 3.3 9.2 3.7 -12.1 Medium 10.6 13.2 (2.6) (19.7) Total 245.2 100.0 248.3 100 -1.3 Low 49.3 48.7 0.6 1.2 Tea manufacturing in Central hills and Western region, Total 74.6 78.9 (4.3) (5.4) the country’s main tea producing districts, have dropped Processing 9 percent in the first nine months, attributed to poor Method weather in third quarter. Following Badulla and Kandy Orthodox 69.2 73.6 (4.4) (6.0) districts recording poor crop in corporate sector is facing CTC 4.8 4.5 0.3 6.7 difficulties. Green Tea 0.6 0.8 (0.2) (25.3) Table 3.- District wise tea production Total 74.6 78.9 (4.3) (5.5) as at Sep 2011 (Mt) CTC is the next leading manufacturing method after Orthodox for ADMIN. DIS- Ceylon tea having producing 4.8 Million Kgs for the quarter, TRICT HIGH MEDIUM LOW TOTAL which recorded a slight increase . Green tea production showed a COLOMBO 0 0 0 0 marginally drop though it improved by 5% in first quarter and by (8%) in the second quarter. HAMBANTOTA 0 0 158,786 158,786 MATALE 0 3,830,678 332,725 4,163,403 Chart 1 - Cumulative tea Production comparison KEGALLE 0 504,046 7,799,693 8,303,739 Jan-September 2011/2010 KALUTARA 0 0 13,349,622 13,349,622 KANDY 546,792 13,840,559 7,359,549 21,746,900 Monthly Total Prod. BADULLA 12,806,017 10,503,134 0 23,309,151 (MKg) Prod. MATARA 0 103,559 31,341,440 31,444,998 246 (MKg) 40 GALLE 0 0 38,092,455 38,092,455 245 35 RATNAPURA 127,542 1,815,629 47,795,001 49,738,171 244 30 NUWARA 46,269,245 7,970,826 610,803 54,850,875 243 25 ELIYA 242 20 Total 59,749,596 38,568,430 146,840,072 245,158,098 241 15 240 10 239 5 Tea Marketing Total Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total - 2010 Total - 2011 2010 2011 The sharp decrease in the Colombo Tea Auction average prices which started from the Tea plantations across the high and mid grown recorded a lower last two sales of second quarter production, while low grown fields experienced a moderate pickup continued particularly hurting in production in first nine months to mark 241Mkgs. Although low plantation companies with low grown sector showed a continues improvement , it did not com- production due to poor weather. pensate for the drops recorded in other two elevations. It is signifi- The figures depicted in table 4 cant to note that, after May production pattern recorded a contin- revealed that quantity marketed ues decline in 2011 and 2010 due to prolonged drought. in third quarter PUBLICATION OF TEA PROMOTION DIVISION — SRI LANKA TEA BOARD Tea market update Volume 7. No. 3 P A G E 3 able 6 –Grade wise quantity sold and price than that in 2010, but the average sales price in all comparison as at September 2011 disposal channels was decrease by Rs 18 per kilogram attributed to Middle East crisis. All three elevations had Grade Qty (Kg) % Avg. Price recorded comparatively low prices following medium FBOPF1/FBOPF 28222077.04 11.25 412.10 grown affected mostly than that in third quarter 2010. FBOP1/FBOP 25131604.38 10.02 414.08 Table 4 –Teas Sold and prices fetched in BOPF 23461903.64 9.35 340.20 third quarter 2011 FOP/OP1/OP 21385921.04 8.53 385.71 OPA 17940072.8 7.15 328.68 2011 2010 FP/PEK 17108632.7 6.82 373.27 Elevation Qty Price (SL Price Qty Price (SL Price PF/FNS/FNS1 15659551 6.24 269.15 (MKg) Rs) (US$) (MKg) Rs) (US$) BOP 15101878.2 6.02 357.30 High 19.5 300.29 2.73 18.9 309.1 2.7 BP/BM 12814768 5.11 268.07 BOP1A 11855613 4.73 268.43 Medium 13.7 298.2 2.71 14.5 319.7 2.8 DUST1 10330560 4.12 328.57 PEK1 9343339.26 3.73 411.31 Low 51.1 373.67 3.40 51.2 393.9 3.5 PF1 8553965 3.41 359.69 BOP1 6681371.6 2.66 Total 84.3 344.45 3.13 84.6 362.2 3.2 445.36 OTHERS 27220154.03 10.86 385.70 Total sales 250,811,411.69 100 362.27 Table 5– Weekly Auction sales comparison during the quarter (Rs/Kg) Based on particle size and liquor quality tea grades fetched varied price level at the Colombo Auction in its way to High Medium Low Average Month Auc.
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