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Tea Market Update

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Tea Market Update Tea Market Update Volume 14 No 4 O c t o b e r — December 2018 PERFORMANCE OF TEA INDUSTRY IN 2018 AND PROSPECTS FOR 2019 Year 2018 began with a lot of optimism in importer countries also depreciating against the backdrop of an excellent year (2017) that the US Dollar. was witnessed in terms of tea prices. The Sri Lankan tea production in 2019, conse- first quarter commenced on a high, with the quent to the Government’s decision to lift the quarterly auction average being recorded as ban on the use of Glyphosate (weedicide) is the highest ever. However, as the year pro- likely to give much relief to the producers gressed, the Sri Lankan tea industry had to and in particular, to the large-scale planta- face numerous obstacles. tions which would be able to carry-out the Consequent to banning of Glyphosate by the required agricultural practices to achieve the Government of Sri Lanka, tea growers and full potential of the plantations. Further the large plantations, in particular, were forced Government’s decision to allow a more liber- to use alternative products for the control of al policy on fertilizer should contribute favor- weed growth, resulting in MCPA levels ably. Needless to say, subject to extreme higher than permitted for exports to Japan. weather conditions not being a reality. How- In and around May, US sanctions on Iran ever, ageing tea bushes and low productivity were imposed which had a cascading impact levels would be a downside. on Auction prices in Colombo, particularly Demand growth in China and India, consider- for the Low Grown (Tippy) teas. There was ing the magnitude of these two markets, is some optimism for tea prices to turn around likely to influence prices and consumption is towards June/July following the strengthen- expected to outstrip production. USA too ing of oil prices and the weakening of the Sri could be singled out as a fast-growing mar- Lankan Rupee. However, this too did not ket, particularly for instant tea and iced tea work out to be a reality following the weak segments, whilst imports from Sri Lanka to the US have shown quite a significant growth Tea Production 2 economies in most Middle Eastern countries and Russia, resulting in currencies in the in 2018. Tea Marketing 2 General Overview Economy Tea Industry Tea Exports 4 The widening trade deficit, tight conditions Improving economic prospects in some countries in the global markets and excessive specula- in the MENA region is worth noting. Despite the tion in the domestic market exerted pressure Trade Fair Participation 5 political and economic turmoil in some coun- on the exchange rate, and the Sri Lankan tries, the MENA region has remained a huge rupee depreciated by 15.9 per cent against market for Ceylon tea. 54.80% of all Ceylon Tea Global Tea Scene 6 the US dollar thus far during 2018 up to 27 exports during the year 2018 were to the MENA December. Region. In value terms it was 50.66% during the Headline inflation, based on both the Na- year 2018. Iraq was the leading importer of Cey- Research Update 7 tional Consumer Price Index (NCPI) and the lon Tea during 2018 with a quantity of 38,351 Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI), MT at a growth of 9.76% over the corresponding remained in low single digit levels. Core period of last year, followed by Turkey (35,445 inflation also remained subdued thus far in MT), Russia (30,294 MT) and Iran (23,547 MT). 2018. Taking the region as a whole the picture that Editors: Although inflation remains subdued and emerges is that India’s export to the region is on Tharanga Abeysekara Nalaka Sanjeewa economic growth remains below potential, the increase. While both Sri Lanka and Kenya Tea Promotion Division the Monetary Board of the Central Bank was were facing difficulties in their export dealings to of the view that it is appropriate to continue Iran with regard to remittances due to the sanc- E-mail the current monetary policy stance to stabi- tions. Sri Lanka exported 47,164 MT of tea to [email protected] lize overall economic conditions and domes- Russia and CIS region in 2018 which shows a Web-site tic financial markets in a context where decline of 4,468 MT compared to the year 2017. www.pureceylontea.com there has been an uptick in private sector Russia and the CIS Region have absorbed credit as well as continued pressure on ex- 17.35% of total Sri Lanka’s tea export volume of ternal reserves. 271,777 MT in 2018. Tea market update Volume 14. No. 4 P A G E 2 + Tea Production The crop and Tea production in 4th quarter 2018 conveys Table 2 - District wise tea production comparison 2018/2017 (Kg) 9.2% positive growth which resulted in 6.78 Mkgs. posi- tively impacted to the aggregative production during the Growth Admin District 2018 2017 Growth period compared to 4th quarter of 2017. % Ratnapura 68.58 70.99 -2.41 -3.39 Table 1 - Tea Production during the fourth quarter Nuwara Eliya 59.60 58.26 1.34 2.29 2018/2017 (Units :MKg) Galle 43.20 45.72 -2.51 -5.50 Matara 35.93 38.75 -2.81 -7.26 Oct - Dec (MKg.) Change Kandy 35.72 33.44 2.28 6.81 Category 2018 2017 Qty (MKg.) % Badulla 26.33 28.07 -1.74 -6.21 Elevation Kalutara 21.39 20.41 0.98 4.81 High 17.12 14.47 2.65 18.35 Kegalle 10.73 9.10 1.63 17.88 Medium 12.75 10.55 2.20 20.88 Matale 1.44 1.38 0.06 4.24 Low 50.66 48.73 1.93 3.95 Colombo 0.81 0.78 0.03 3.21 Hambantota 0.12 0.19 -0.07 -35.99 Total 80.53 73.75 6.78 9.20 Total 303.84 307.08 -3.24 -1.05 Processing Method Orthodox 73.24 67.66 5.58 8.24 The highest tea production district Rathnapura recorded 68.58 Mkgs production which captured the major por- CTC 6.63 5.59 1.04 18.50 tion of 23% from the cumulative tea production in Green Tea 0.66 0.49 0.17 35.54 2018. But the district conveys a negative growth com- Total 80.53 73.75 6.78 9.20 pared to 2017 which affected cumulative production negatively. Moreover the major tea producing districts The cumulative production of 2018 recorded 303.84 Galle, Matara & Badulla recorded negative impact con- million kg which was nearly 1% minus growth / 3.24 secutively by 2.51, 2.81 & 1.74 Mkgs which affected to Mkgs marginal drop in production compared to 2017. extend the deficit in 2018. However, the significant Both high and medium elevations production had signif- growth reflected in Nuwara Eliya, Kandy, Kaluthara & icantly increased by 20% which accounted the overall Kegalle assisted to reduce the risk of extending the pro- production in the segment nearly 5 Mkgs. The added duction deficit further in 2018. performance of 2 Mkgs. by the tea small holding sector supported to record the figure in low elevation over 50 Tea Marketing Mkgs. Chart 1 – Cumulative and Monthly tea production Table 3 –Teas Sold and prices fetched in fourth comparison 2018/2017 quarter 2018/2017 Unit: Qty-Mkg,Rs/Kg Eleva- 2018 2017 tion Qty Price Price Qty Price Price (MKg) (SL Rs) (US$) (MKg) (SL Rs) (US$) High 13.03 576.35 3.27 12.19 646.81 4.22 Medium 11.61 523.40 2.97 10.54 568.67 3.71 Low 41.12 600.30 3.41 45.10 645.10 4.20 Total 65.76 581.98 3.31 67.84 633.53 4.13 The scenario had also been continued in the 4th quarter 2018 where the national average price was declined to The Chart-1 illustrates monthly as well as the cumula- Rs. 581.98 per Kg. The price was tive crop details from January to December in 2017 and steady remained at Rs. 633.53 in 2018 respectively. The overall trend was in line with the 2017. However the 8% drop in figures in 2017 except for the period from June to Sep- national average price compared tember 2018. The red line conveys the drop in tea pro- to 2017 calculated the serious duction during the same period compared to 2017. price drop in all three elevations. PUBLICATION OF TEA PROMOTION DIVISION—SRI LANKA TEA BOARD Tea market update Volume 14 . No. 4 P A G E 3 + Table 4: Teas sold and prices fetched by Table 6 –Most Traded Grade wise quantity sold distribution channels (Qty:Mkg, Price Rs./Kg) and price comparison during the 4th quarter 2018 Fourth Quarter Sold Qty Avg. Grades Different chan- 2018 2017 (Kgs) Price nels Qty Price Qty Price (Rs./ ORTH-FBOPF1/FBOPF 6,234,927.00 659.84 (MKg.) (Rs./Kg.) (MKg.) Kg.) ORTH-FOP/OP1/OP 6,093,738.00 638.45 Public Auction 63.87 578.81 66.78 632.29 ORTH-BOPF 5,517,749.00 565.94 Private Sales 1.51 677.72 0.68 703.23 ORTH-OPA 5,129,778.00 504.61 Direct Sales 0.38 730.08 0.37 728.63 ORTH-BP/BM 4,798,247.00 410.84 ORTH-FBOP1/FBOP 4,542,735.50 678.39 Total 65.76 581.98 67.84 633.53 ORTH-FP/PEK 4,539,949.50 756.92 ORTH-PEK1 3,639,883.00 814.75 According to the Table 4, 63.78 Mkgs tea were sold at Rs.
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