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The Age Factor in American National Elections

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THE AGE FACTOR IN AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS A thesis presented to the faculty of the College of Arts and Sciences of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Arts Shabbir A. Khan June 2007 This thesis entitled THE AGE FACTOR IN AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS By SHABBIR A. KHAN has been approved for the Department of Political Science and the College of Arts and Sciences by Barry L. Tadlock Assistant Professor of Political Science Benjamin M. Ogles Dean, College of Arts and Sciences Abstract KHAN, SHABBIR AHMAD, M.A., June 2007, Political Science THE AGE FACTOR IN AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS ( 100 PP.) Director of Thesis: Barry L. Tadlock The age factor has been crucial in both presidential and congressional elections. Political leadership in America has been usually between 50 and 60 years of age. Age has been closely linked with the issue of political participation. I propose to examine the role of age in both presidential and congressional elections. From my studies I have observed that: (1) the average age of congressmen has increased; (2) the average age at the time of first election has also increased from the past and House candidates in their 40s and Senate candidates between the mid-40s and mid-50s have greater chances of success at the time of their first elections; (3) the number of older congressmen (65 and over) has also increased as compared to the number of younger congressmen (25 to 34) which has declined substantively. The indicators arrayed from the election data clearly show a significant relationship between the voters’ age and the candidates’ age. Approved: Barry L. Tadlock Assistant Professor of Political Science Dedication To my dear wife, Asma, lovely daughter Aleezae, and great son Hamzah. Acknowledgements I am profoundly grateful to the USEFP (United States Educational Foundation in Pakistan) Fulbright Program and IIE (Institute of International Education) NY for providing me this unique opportunity, along with financial support, for graduate studies at Ohio University, Athens, OH, U.S.A. I want to express my sincere thanks to Professor David Dabelko for his dedication and commitment to his students including myself. I took his “Research Methods” course and he appreciated my final project paper, ‘The Age Factor in US Elections’. This was the turning point when I decided to continue my efforts on this issue. My gratitude also extends to Professor Sung Ho Kim, my academic advisor for this program and a marvelous teacher. I cannot forget his love and kindness and valuable contribution to my academic life. I am also grateful to my friends Dr. Aurangzeb Khan, post-doctoral fellow in the Department of Physics, and Fakhar ul Inam, a Ph.D. student of physics, at Ohio University for their services and contribution. They helped me a lot in understanding some computer skills and making all statistical tables and graphs. They spent a lot of time guiding and helping me despite their overwhelming preoccupations. I would like to extend my heartfelt thanks and gratitude to my mother-in-law, Najma Shaheen and my father-in-law, Zafar Aziz Ch., an eminent civil servant Rtd. for their unconditional love and help. I am forever indebted to my father-in-law for his indispensable contribution. He has been very helpful in editing/proof reading and making this document worthwhile. This study would not have been possible without the guidance and support of my thesis advisor, Professor Barry L. Tadlock. He is a pleasant person, a remarkable teacher, and a great human being. I am highly grateful to him for his time, his guidance, and particularly his patience. He was always cooperative, rather generous, and gave me his precious time and advice when I needed it. I am highly indebted and grateful to my father, Nazir Ahmad Khan, and my mother Miraj Bibi for their kindness, and prayers. They have been a constant source of inspiration, encouragement, and hope in my life. In the end, my deepest appreciation is offered to Asma Zafar, my wife, Aleezae, my daughter, and Hamzah, my son, for their unwavering love and support enabling me to pursue my research in perfect peace and harmony. Table of Contents Page ABSTRACT..................................................................................................................... iii DEDICATION................................................................................................................. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................ v LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... x CHAPTER 1...................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction....................................................................................................................... 1 Age in Ancient America ................................................................................................. 3 The Meaning of Age and Aging ..................................................................................... 4 Age and Achievement..................................................................................................... 6 Age and Political Participation ....................................................................................... 8 Hypotheses and Outline:................................................................................................. 9 CHAPTER 2.................................................................................................................... 14 Literature Review ........................................................................................................... 14 CHAPTER 3.................................................................................................................... 28 The Presidential Elections.............................................................................................. 28 The Age of the President and Voting Participation/Turnout ........................................ 34 CHAPTER 4.................................................................................................................... 36 The Congressional Elections .......................................................................................... 36 viii Age and the Congress ................................................................................................... 38 Age and the House........................................................................................................ 44 Age and the Senate........................................................................................................ 49 Age and Participation.................................................................................................... 52 CHAPTER 5.................................................................................................................... 61 Summary and Suggestions ............................................................................................. 61 Suggestions for Future Research .................................................................................. 67 BIBLIOGRAPHY:.......................................................................................................... 69 CONSULTED BOOKS AND ARTICLES ................................................................... 74 APPENDICES:................................................................................................................ 81 ix List of Tables Table Page Table 2-1: The Ages of U.S. Senators and Representatives from 1799 to 1925 .............. 16 Table 2-2: The Mean Ages of the Winners and Losers in the 1958 House Election........ 18 Table 2-3: Age and Entry of 1,923 House Members 1910-1960..................................... 24 Table 3-1: The Mean Age of the Presidents Since 1788 .................................................. 29 Table 3-2: The Mean Age of Presidents since 1980......................................................... 30 Table 3-3: The Age Groups of the Presidents Since the 1788 Elections......................... 31 Table 4-1: The Age of Members of Congress 1980-2006................................................ 38 Table 4-2: The Age of Members of Congress When First Elected 1980-2006 ................ 40 Table 4-3: The Age of Members of House 1980-2006..................................................... 44 Table 4-4: The Age of Members of the House When First elected 1980-2006................ 46 Table 4-5: The Age Groups (%) of the House When First Elected 1980-2006................ 49 Table 4-6: Registered Voters in Different Age Groups (%)............................................ 53 Table 4-7: Voter Turnout (%) by Selected Age Groups Since 1980 ................................ 54 Table 4-8: Voter Turnout (%) Within Selected Age Groups Since 1980......................... 56 x List of Figures Figures Page Figure 3-1: The Age Group (%) of Presidents since 1788................................................ 30 Figure 3-2: The age group distribution of the Presidents since 1788. Distribution is fitted with a Gaussian (fitting error is of the order of 10-4) with mean value of 56 age.................................................................................................................
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