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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG 5 December 2019 Equity Research Americas | United States Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG Comping the Comp Target price (12M, US$) 930.00 Restaurants | Comment Outperform ■ Can Chipotle Comp the Comp? One of the most common questions we receive on Price (4 Dec 19, US$) 809.40 CMG is the brand’s ability to “comp the comp” as it laps difficult compares, with concerns 52-week price range 851.54 - 385.84 valuation will compress as SSS decelerate. We believe CMG is still in early innings, with a Market cap (US$ m) 22,497.44 strong runway for growth to return to prior peak AUVs of $2.5MM and opportunity to Enterprise value (US$ m) 22,128 exceed prior levels as the brand increasingly leverages its second make-lines, now comprising ~18.5% of sales. Confidence in ongoing strength includes contributions from: Research Analysts 1) digital & delivery; 2) loyalty program; 3) new menu innovation; 4) marketing strategy; and 5) operations. More consistent price increases (~2%) and enhanced data analytic Lauren Silberman capabilities should also contribute to SSS. CMG has exceeded initial 2019 SSS 212 325 2720 expectations, sequentially accelerating traffic and SSS on tougher compares, and we [email protected] expect momentum to continue in 4Q & 2020 as the brand unlocks digital growth by leveraging its loyalty program, launches new menu innovation and enhances marketing & operations to generate increased engagement and a better customer experience. ■ Chipotle 2.0: CMG is well positioned to capitalize on the digital shift given its younger consumer base, transportable food and optimized operations, with digital customers now contributing 80%+ to SSS. ~7MM customers have joined Chipotle’s loyalty program since March, and assuming it grows to 12MM by 2020, we estimate one incremental visit per loyalty customer would generate ~2.5% in SSS, supported by commentary indicating personalization has driven incremental visits across frequency bands in test. Loyalty should also unlock greater digital adoption, with digital-forward peers at strong levels (Panera ~35%; Sweetgreen 50%+) and select CMG stores already reaching a ~30% digital mix. ■ Queso for Innovation: CMG has been prudent in its approach to menu innovation, though such likely lends itself well to heightened initial trial. In mid-Sept, the brand launched Carne Asada, accelerating SSS trends (likely low double digits), with expectations to remain in stores through 1Q. Queso Blanco appears to be the farthest along, in test ~4-5 months, and we estimate it could contribute ~50-100bps to SSS once launched. We see significant upside with quesadillas (also in test), one of the most requested items, with our estimates suggesting SSS contribution of ~4.5-9% on reasonably conservative assumptions. ■ Valuation: Our $930 TP is based on 23.5x NTM EBITDA & 42x NTM EPS in 12 months. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 8.88 13.87 18.68 23.33 Prev. EPS (US$) - - - - Revenue (US$ m) 4,865.0 5,551.5 6,286.8 7,011.9 EBITDA (US$ m) 543.8 697.4 933.6 1,127.4 P/OCF (x) 19.4 33.2 26.8 22.5 EV/EBITDA (current) 40.7 31.7 23.7 19.6 Net debt (US$ m) -250 -369 -551 -817 On 04-Dec-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 3112.76Daily Dec04, 2018 - Dec04, 2019, 12/04/18 = US$468.35 ROIC (%) 20.26 30.28 37.99 44.70 Number of shares (m) 27.80 IC (current, US$ m) 1,191.39 Net debt (Next Qtr., US$ m) -369.1 Dividend (current, US$) - Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018A 2.13 2.87 2.16 1.72 Net debt/tot eq (Next Qtr.,%) -22.7 2019E 3.40 3.99 3.82 2.66 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates 2020E 3.95 5.51 4.63 4.60 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 5 December 2019 Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Analyst: Lauren Silberman Price (04 Dec 2019): US$809.4 Target Price: 930.00 Rating: Outperform Income Statement 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Company Background Revenue (US$ m) 4,865.0 5,551.5 6,286.8 7,011.9 EBITDA (US$ m) 544 697 934 1,127 Chipotle Mexican Grill operates fast casual restaurants with a focused Depr. & amort. (195) (210) (229) (249) EBIT (US$) 349 487 704 879 menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls and salads, made using fresh Net interest exp -0 -0 -0 -0 ingredients. PBT (US$) 359 503 718 889 Income taxes (111) (111) (198) (249) Blue/Grey Sky Scenario Profit after tax 248 392 521 640 Net profit (US$) 248 392 521 640 Other NPAT adjustments 0 0 0 0 Cash Flow 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Cash flow from operations 622 688 842 986 CAPEX (287) (308) (320) (320) Free cashflow to the firm 334 380 522 666 Cash flow from investments (388) (308) (320) (320) Net share issue(/repurchase) (161) (252) (340) (400) Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 Changes in Net Cash/Debt 65 119 182 266 Balance Sheet (US$) 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Cash & cash equivalents 250 369 551 817 Account receivables 62 49 49 49 Other current assets 481 495 495 495 Total fixed assets 1,379 1,443 1,534 1,605 Investment securities 0 0 0 0 Total assets 2,266 4,938 5,211 5,548 Total current liabilities 450 634 634 634 Shareholder equity 1,441 1,622 1,895 2,232 Total liabilities and equity 2,266 4,938 5,211 5,548 Net debt (250) (369) (551) (817) Per share 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E No. of shares (wtd avg) 28 28 28 27 CS adj. EPS 8.88 13.87 18.68 23.33 Our Blue Sky Scenario (US$) 1200.00 Prev. EPS (US$) - - - - Dividend (US$) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Our $1,200 one-year valuation in a blue sky scenario is based on an Free cash flow per share 11.95 13.44 18.72 24.26 EV/EBITDA of ~25.5x our blue sky FY21 EBITDA. Our blue sky FY21 Earnings 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E EBITDA is based on: 1) SSS of 7.5%; 2) unit growth of ~6.5%; and 3) Sales growth (%) 8.7 14.1 13.2 11.5 restaurant-level margins of ~23%. EBIT growth (%) 16.1 39.6 44.5 24.8 Net profit growth (%) 31.8 57.6 33.0 22.9 EPS growth (%) 34.6 56.1 34.7 24.9 Our Grey Sky Scenario (US$) 600.00 EBITDA margin (%) 11.2 12.6 14.8 16.1 EBIT margin (%) 7.2 8.8 11.2 12.5 Our $600 one-year valuation in a grey sky scenario is based on an Pretax margin (%) 7.4 9.1 11.4 12.7 EV/EBITDA of ~19x our grey sky FY21 EBITDA. Our grey sky FY21 Net margin (%) 5.1 7.1 8.3 9.1 EBITDA is based on: 1) SSS of 3%; 2) unit growth of ~5%; and 3) Valuation 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E restaurant-level margins of ~20.7%. EV/EBITDA (x) 40.7 31.7 23.7 19.6 P/E (x) 91.1 58.4 43.3 34.7 Returns 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Share price performance ROIC (%) 20.3 30.3 38.0 44.7 Gearing 12/18A 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Net debt/equity (%) (17.3) (22.7) (29.1) (36.6) Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2018A 2.13 2.87 2.16 1.72 2019E 3.40 3.99 3.82 2.66 2020E 3.95 5.51 4.63 4.60 On 04-Dec-2019 the S&P 500 INDEX closed at 3112.76 Daily Dec04, 2018 - Dec04, 2019, 12/04/18 = US$468.35 Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 2 5 December 2019 Sales initiatives to support sustainable SSS strength While Chipotle’s narrative has largely turned to a story of growth rather than recovery, AUVs are still ~15% below peak and SSS have yet to fully recover from losses during the food safety incidences (4Q15 to 4Q16), with ongoing opportunities for sales to recover from declines (2H sales composition underweight relative to prior peak food safety incidence levels). Beyond a return to prior peak levels, we are optimistic in ongoing momentum driven by Chipotle’s comprehensive sales plan and omni-channel strategy, with multiple initiatives still in early innings or in test. Key opportunities for SSS contribution include: 1) digital & delivery initiatives; 2) loyalty program; 3) new menu innovation; 4) marketing & social media strategy; and 5) operations. We expect more consistent price increases of ~2% (Chipotle recently implemented ~2%), enhanced analytical capabilities and potential benefits from catering growth to also contribute to SSS. Digital & Delivery – digital & delivery represent ~17-17.5% of sales currently and have driven the majority of SSS growth and acceleration over the last several quarters.
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