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Asia Aviation (AAV TB) Share Price: Bt7.4 Target Price: Bt9.0 (+21.6%) Another Fairy Tale Win for Leicester City Owner Resume Coverage

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Asia Aviation (AAV TB) Share Price: Bt7.4 Target Price: Bt9.0 (+21.6%) Another Fairy Tale Win for Leicester City Owner Resume Coverage September 2, 2016 OUTPERFORM Asia Aviation (AAV TB) Share Price: Bt7.4 Target Price: Bt9.0 (+21.6%) Another fairy tale win for Leicester City owner Resume Coverage Hub-to-hub flights should lift margins; CASK is 4% lower than LCC peers’ average due to single-model fleet strategy Expect earnings to grow at 43% CAGR over FY15-FY18F driven by larger passenger volume, capacity and margins OUTPERFORM, TP Bt9.0/sh is based on 17x FY17 P/E; AAV will Krungsri Securities Research Team be a top beneficiary of rising Chinese tourist arrivals Teerapol UDOMVEJ Less competition in hub-to-hub flights leads to higher margins 662 - 659 7000 ext 5012 AAV, which owns 55% of Thai Air Asia (TAA), is now the leading low [email protected] cost carrier (LCC) in Thailand with 30% market share. It focuses on point-to-point domestic and international routes within 4-hours flight time Kitti PITAKTEERABANDIT from its six hubs: Bangkok, Phuket, Chiang Mai, Krabi, Pattaya and Assistant analyst Hatyai. These hub-to-hub flights command higher margins because it is less competitive than for routes from/to Bangkok. Cost per Available Key Data COMPANY RESEARCH | Seat Kilometer (CASK) is 4% lower than other Southeast Asia LCCs 12-mth High/Low (Bt) 7.80 / 4.24 because it uses one aircraft model (Airbus A320) and utilization is high Market capital (Btm/US$m) 35,890.0 / 1,035.8 (11.8 hours/day). We also believe that TAA can leverage on the strong 3m avg Turnover (Btm/US$m) 763.7 / 22 AirAsia branding and buy new aircraft through AirAsia Group at lower Free Float (%) 50 Issue Shares (m shares) 4,850 prices. The latter will ensure TAA to have higher margins than peers. Major shareholders: - BIJLEVELD PATTAREE 19.0 RPK growth will be driven by fleet expansion - BBL ASSET MGMT CO LT 14.6 We forecast Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) will grow by 16% - BIJLEVELD SIRITORN 12.0 CAGR over FY15-FY18F with 83-84% load factor, driven by i) strong air Share Price Performance travel demand and rising tourist arrivals, especially from China, ii) fleet expansion to 71 aircraft by 2020, iii) a flexible fleet plan due to single aircraft model, and iv) new routes and higher flight frequency. We forecast ancillary revenue to rise by 17% CAGR over this period driven by higher passenger volumes and synergies from King Power group. The low fuel cost should expand net margin to 6% in FY17F from 4% in FY15. These would lead to 43% earnings growth over FY15-18F. 1% increase in load factor would lift earnings by 8.6%. Offers strongest earnings growth among LCC peers AAV is now trading at 13.7x FY17F PE, a premium to regional peers’ YTD 1Mth 3Mth 12Mth average of 12.7x. The premium is justified because it offers the Absolute (%) 41.0 12.1 18.4 72.1 strongest earnings growth (43% CAGR) over FY15-FY18F compared to Relative to index (%) 21.4 10.3 9.6 59.1 regional peers’ average of 29%. Rising Chinese tourist arrivals would also benefit AAV the most as it operates 87 flights per week to eleven Krungsri Securities vs Market major cities in China. There is potential upside from synergies with King Positive Neutral Negative Power Group after the latter's owner bought a controlling stake in AAV. Market Recommend 15 5 0 Financial Summary (Btm) Krungsri Market % +/- Year to Dec 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Target Price (Bt) 9.0 7.6 18.1 Sales (Btm) 26,149 30,464 35,099 41,058 48,878 ’16 Net Profit (Btm) 2,183 2,334 (6.5) Growth (%) 8 16 15 17 19 ’17 Net Profit (Btm) 2,614 2,483 5.3 EBITDA (Btm) 1,340 3,898 6,161 7,208 8,514 Growth (%) (53) 191 58 17 18 Krungsri's earnings revision Recurring profit (Btm) 113 1,283 2,183 2,614 3,126 Growth (%) -87 1,031 70 20 20 2016F 2017F Earnings revision (%) - - Net profit (Btm) 183 1,078 2,183 2,614 3,126 FDEPS (Bt) 0.04 0.22 0.45 0.54 0.64 Source: Bloomberg, Krungsri Securities Growth (%) (82) 489 102 20 20 PE (x) 316.2 28.0 16.4 13.7 11.5 DPS (Bt) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.24 0.26 Yield (%) 0.0 1.3 2.7 3.2 3.5 BVPS (Bt) 4.03 4.15 4.50 4.84 5.24 P/BV (x) 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.4 Disclaimer: This publication constitutes information disclosed to the public and believed to be reliable but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. All opinions, suggestions, or projections are for informational purposes only and shall not be construed as an inducement for the sale or purchase of securities. Amendments to this publication may be made without prior notice. Investors are urged to exercise caution in making a decision to invest in any securities. 1 Resume Coverage | AAV September 2, 2016 Background Asia Aviation Public Company Limited (AAV) was incorporated in 2006 as a holding company to house its stake in Thai AirAsia Company Limited (TAA), a Low Cost Carrier (LCC). In 2012, AAV was listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand with Bt485m paid-up capital. It used the Bt2.7bn IPO proceeds to subscribe to new shares in TAA, which increased its shareholding in TAA from 51% (pre-IPO) to 55%. In June 2016, CEO Khun Tassapon Bijleveld sold 39% of his family’s stake in AAV for Bt7.9bn to Vichai Srivaddhanaphraba and his family members, who own King Power Group, Thailand’s leading duty-free retailer, and Leicester City Football Club. Currently, TAA has a fleet of 49 aircraft and operates 1,019 flights per week to 48 destinations domestically and internationally. In 2015, 88% of TAA’s revenue came from passenger service, baggage handling and other service fees. AAV : Route Network (as of Mar 2016) Note: 6 hub cities, 20 domestic destinations, 10 city transfer routes and 11 island transfer routes Source: Company data Krungsri Securities Research 2 Resume Coverage | AAV September 2, 2016 AAV: Revenue breakdown (2015) AAV: Passenger revenue by nationality (1Q16) Freight, 0.7% Other , 3.1% In-flight, 1.1% Baggage Other, 20% handling and other service, Indian, 2% 15.8% German, 2% Malaysian, Thai, 47% Charter flight 2% , 6.8% UK, 2% US, 2% Passenger service , Chinese, 72.5% 23% Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Why we like AAV We resume coverage of AAV with an OUTPERFORM rating and TP of Bt9.0/sh. We like AAV for the following reasons: 1) Single-model fleet helps to optimize revenues and costs TAA has a young fleet of 49 Airbus A320s (180 seats) with an average age of 4.6 years, and plans to expand its fleet to 71 aircraft by FY20 (adding 5 aircraft per year). It will take delivery of two new A320 NEO (New Engine Option) aircraft in 4Q16; this model can reduce fuel burn by 15% compared to the current engine option. By operating a single-model fleet, TAA benefits from economies of scale in parts and maintenance costs, pilot training and also from a flexible fleet plan. AAV: Fleet types AAV: Average fleet age 5.0 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2013 2014 2015 Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Krungsri Securities Research 3 Resume Coverage | AAV September 2, 2016 2) Fuel costs should drop in FY16/17F One of the major cost items for airlines is fuel expense, which accounted for 35% of TAA’s total expenses last year. Jet fuel price has fallen from an average of US$123/bbl in 2013 to US$50/bbl currently. Last year, TAA hedged 50% of its fuel requirement at an estimated price of US$88/bbl. This year, it will benefit from lower fuel prices as it has hedged c.70% of its requirement at c.US$56/bbl. We estimate actual average fuel cost after hedging at US$53/bbl in FY16F (vs. US$80/bbl in FY15). Currently, TAA has hedged 46% of FY17 fuel requirement at an average cost of US$55/bbl. We assumed Brent crude oil prices would average US$46/bbl in FY16F and US$53/bbl in FY17F. Adding a crack spread of US$14/bbl, our jet fuel price assumptions are US$60/bbl and US$67/bbl for those years. AAV: Fuel expenses AAV: Non-fuel expenses Btbn US$/bbl Btm (%) 3.5 130 4,000 0.3 3.2 3,779 3,800 3,728 2.9 120 3,654 3.0 21% 0.2 2.6 2.6 2.6 110 3,600 2.4 2.5 14% 2.3 2.5 3,400 3,280 0.2 100 10% 1.9 1.9 3,200 8% 2.0 90 0.1 3,000 5% 2,906 6% 6% 5% 2,808 2,849 1.5 80 0.1 2,800 70 2,600 1.0 -3% 0.0 60 2,330 2,400 2,255 0.5 -0.1 50 2,200 -8% 2,123 0.0 40 2,000 -0.1 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Fuel expenses (Bt bn) Average jet fuel price (US$/bbl) (rhs) Non-fuel expenses Operating margin (%) Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities Source: Company data, Krungsri Securities 3) Most leveraged to rising Chinese tourist arrivals The Department of Tourism, Thailand (DOT) announced that the number of international tourist arrivals had increased by 19.5% yoy to 17m ytd-July, mainly from China (30%) and Asean (26%).
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