THE TREÀTY OF TTATELOTCO AS À PARADIGM FOR À NORÐIC NUCLEÀR WEAPON-FREE ZONE by TREVOR MCMORRIS TÀTE presented to tteAul*:l:tty or Manitoba in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MÀSTER.OF ÀRTS IN POTITICAL STUDIES Winnipeg, Manitoba c)"tRnvon McMoRRIs rÀTE, 1987 Permission Ïras been granted L'autorisation a êté accordée to the National L j-brarY of à Ia Bibtiothèque nationale Canada to microfilm this du Canada de microfilmer thesis and to lend or sel1 cett.e thèse et de Prêter ou copies of the film. de vendre des exemPlaires du f iIm. The author (copYright owner) L'auteur (titulaire du droit has reserved other d'auteur) se rêserve les publication rights, and autres droits de Publication; neither the thesis nor ni la t.hè s e ni de long s extensive extracts from it' extrait s de celle-ci ne may be printed or otherwise doivent être imprimês ou reþroduced without his/her autrement reProduits sans son written permission. autorisation écrite. rsBN 0-31_5-37333*4 THE TREATY OF TLATELOLCO AS A PARADIGM FOR A NORDIC NUCLEAR I,üEAPON-FREE ZONE BY TREVOR McMORRIS TATE A ttlesis subnritted to the Faculty of Craduate Studies of ttre University of Manitoba in partial fulfillment of the requirentettts of the degree of MASTER OF ARTS o 1987 Permission has beert granted to the LIBRARY OF THE UNIVER- SITY OF MANITOBA to lend or sell copies of this thesis, to the NATIONAL LIBRARY OF CANADA to microfilnr this thesis a¡rd to lend or sell copies of the fTlm, and UNIVERSITY MICROFILMS to publish an abstract of this thesis. The author reserves other publicatio¡r rights, and neither the thesis nor extensive extracts from it may be printed or other- wise reproduced without the author's written permissiort. for ny parents, for Heather and Sorayya ' and for Janet, Norman and the siblings. ]V - ÀBSTRACT In the process of trying to prevent the further spread of nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons capability, the nuclear weapon-free zone approach to regional arms control has been seen by many as a credible alternative fo the globaI Non-proliferation Treaty (Hpt). This study is an attempt to apply the paradigmatic principles, objectives and norms of the Latin Àmerican nuclear-free zone Treaty (tire most comprehensive of its kind to date), to the Nordic area. The latter has received much attenlion in the regional arms control literature as a possible de iure nuclear-free zone. The author attempts to show that Nordic Europe bears some similarity to the Latin Àmerican region which might not seem apparent at first. It þ¡as found that, as a security paradigm, the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin Àmerica (tlatelolco Treaty) portends some important lessons which might prove useful in the estabtishment of a formal Nordic nuclear-free zone regime. it was also found, however, that the Treaty does not go far enough in satisfying t,he political, as well as geo-strategic, criteria for a nuclear weapon-free zone in the Nordic region. PREFACE 1. OBJECTIVE the general. aim of this study is to examine and analyse the possibility of establishing a nuclear weapon-free zone (HWf'Z) in the Nordic region, or the basis of the paLtern found in the tatin American NWFZ set up by the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America. The study is therefore comparative in nature. It begins from the premise that the nuclear-free zone regime established by the agreement commonly referred to as the Treaty of Tlatelolco may be potentially transferrable elsewhere in the world, in this instance to Nordic Europe.l This may be so notwithstanding a recognition that the security and strategic environnent in this area is markedly different from that of Latin Àmerica. Initially signed in 1967, lhe Treaty of T1atelolco is said to have been successful so far in fulfilling íts major objecLives of preventing the introduction of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery into Latin America and the Caribbean. The process by which this regime came into being r,rill be delineated" More importantly, the basis for its alleged suceess will be analysed, focusing on lhe nature of the treaLy provisions it entaits and the political conditions and accommodations it enbodies. I For the purposes of this study, Nordic Europe means all the states belonging to the Nordic Council. These are Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden. -VI- Such an examination and approach will hetp to reveal the singular dimensions of the Tlatelolco Treaty pattern that are relevant to any assessnent of its potential as a model capable of being adapted in another region. Having examined the pattern exhibited by this Treaty and elucidated the basis for its apparent success, an atlempt will be made to analyse the possibility of achieving a NWFZ in the Nordic region along the lines to be found in the Tlatelolco regime. 2. METHOD In fulfilling these objectives, the study wiIl examine firstly the origins of the nuclear weapon-free zone concept and analyse the salient theoretical arguments underpinning arms control, especially as they relate to regional patterns such as NWFZ's. Secondly it wiIl delineate the principal aspects of the pat.lern represented by the Treaty of Tlatelolco and evaluate its application to Nordic Europe. Thirdly this study will suggest, based on, the evidence and findings t c! itical adjustments that the Tlatelolco pattern would have to undergo before it coutd be seen as a viable option for the Nordic region. Finally it will analyse the changes that would be required in the political and strategic environment of Nordic Europe in order for the TlateIolco pattern to have any relevance. Throughout, this thesis will stress the political rather than the military, legal and technical content and form of a possible Nordic NI{F7. (riris approach is at variance with the general thrust of the existing literature, whích tends to emphasise the technical and military aspects of NIIFZ proposals. ) In addition to defining the scope of the - vII study, this strategy will pernit a more intensive inquiry into the political clinate which underscores the military and security landscape of Northern Europe. 3. CONTRi BUTION As the forthcoming examination will demonstrate, a major gap exists in the literature on NWFZ's. Several proposals have been advanced for setting up nuclear-free zones in various parts of the globe. These include Àfrica, Central Europe, the Balkans, South Àsia, the South Pacific and, of course, Northern Europe. Barring the South Pacific, however, none of them has culminated in a formal NWFZ arrangement. This thesis will argue that NWFZ's may be germane to the search for regional forms of arms control. Hence, it will test the applicabitity of an existing NWFZ paradigm to an area which, since 1963, has been proposed as a possible targeÈ for this approach to horizontal arms control.2 By so doing, the study will contribute to filling a perceived gap in the literature on nuclear weapon-free zones. The justification for using the pattern established by the Treaty of Tlatelolco to fuIfil lhe study's objectives rests on the following: first, Lhe Tlatelolco regime represents one of only two, and by far the rnore complete, examples of a denuclearisation treaty having refevance to a populated region - the other being lhe recently established South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty. Latin America ( including the Caribbean), comprises some 19"5 million square kilometres and is The term paradigm is used in this study to mean a consistent set of propositions, combining empírical and nornative elements, values and collective expectations. See Chapter IV for a further explicat.ion. viii - inhabited by over 200 million people. Second, based on the theoretical assumptions which underLie arms control, the Treaty of Tlatelolco appears to offer a potentially effective approach to horizontal non-proliferation. In other words, the Tlatetolco pattern may contain some instructive and relevant Iessons which may be viable options when analysing the prospects for a Nordic Nl¡FZ. Third, insofar as general arms control objecLives are concerned, the Latin Àmerican Treaty may have restrained nuclear arms proliferation to Latin Àmerica and thereby enhanced international security. (Some analysts have prima facie even argued that it has contributed to detente between the superpowers.) Seen in this light, one could argue that the Tlalelolco regime has overtine attracted a degree of credibility and predictability" Fourth, the Treaty of Tlatelo1co is the only arms control arrangement to incorporaLe its own comprehensive control and verification system. The evidence indicates that this stringent policing system may have gone some way in constraining the nucler activity of member states, and may have even influenced the nuclear policies of Àrgentina, Brazil and ChiIe. All three states are considered to be nuclear-lhreshold countries, but only the latter two are associated with the TlateLolco Treaty in any formal waY" Fifth, from the point of view of arms.control both Latin Àmerica and the Nordic area consLitute zones of restraint and low tension. This fact has some bearing on the East-I.lest balance in general and, in particular, - IX on the political order in the Àmericas and Europe respectively. It should also enhance the across-systems thrust inherent in this study. 4. ORGANISÀTION The study begins with an brief historical analysis of the movement in the arms control community to halt- the horizonlal proliferation of nuclear weapons. Thus, some time is spent examining the Non-Proliferation Treaty (Wpf) which vras signed in 1968. The Introduction also touches on the origins and evolution of the nuclear free zone concept and shows how the approach to regional arms control fits into the overall non-proliferation schema.