ISSN 2409-2274 NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS ENGLISH SELECTION 2018 CONTENTS HERBERT SPENCER: THE UNRECOGNIZED FATHER OF THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ANATOLY VISHNEVSKY RETHINKING THE CONTEMPORARY HISTORY OF FERTILITY: FAMILY, STATE, AND THE WORLD SYSTEM MIKHAIL KLUPT GENERATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN RUSSIA MIKHAIL DENISENKO, VLADIMIR KOZLOV CITIES OF OVER A MILLION PEOPLE ON THE MORTALITY MAP OF RUSSIA ALEKSEI SHCHUR ARMENIANS OF RUSSIA: GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OF THE PAST, MODERN REALITIES AND PROSPECTS SERGEI SUSHCHIY AN EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF MALIGNANT NEOPLASMS IN RUSSIA USING INCIDENCE-MORTALITY MODEL RUSTAM TURSUN-ZADE • DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW • EDITORIAL BOARD: INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL COUNCIL: E. ANDREEV V. MUKOMEL B. ANDERSON (USA) T. MALEVA M. DENISSENKO L. OVCHAROVA O. GAGAUZ (Moldova) F. MESLÉ (France) V. ELIZAROV P. POLIAN I. ELISEEVA B. MIRONOV S. IVANOV A. PYANKOVA Z. ZAYONCHKOVSKAYA S. NIKITINA A. IVANOVA M. SAVOSKUL N. ZUBAREVICH Z. PAVLIK (Czech Republic) I. KALABIKHINA S. TIMONIN V. IONTSEV V. STANKUNIENE (Lithuania) M. KLUPT A. TREIVISCH E. LIBANOVA (Ukraine) M. TOLTS (Israel) A. MIKHEYEVA A. VISHNEVSKY M. LIVI BACCI (Italy) V. SHKOLNIKOV (Germany) N. MKRTCHYAN V. VLASOV T. MAKSIMOVA S. SCHERBOV (Austria) S. ZAKHAROV EDITORIAL OFFICE: Editor-in-Chief - Anatoly G. VISHNEVSKY Deputy Editor-in-Chief - Sergey A. TIMONIN Deputy Editor-in-Chief - Nikita V. MKRTCHYAN Managing Editor – Anastasia I. PYANKOVA Proofreader - Natalia S. ZHULEVA Design and Making-up - Kirill V. RESHETNIKOV English translation – Christopher SCHMICH The journal is registered on October 13, 2016 in the Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology, and Mass Media. Certificate of Mass Media Registration ЭЛ № ФС77-67362. ISSN 2409-2274 Editorial address: Bolshoy Trekhsvyatitelskiy lane 3, office 303, Moscow, 109028, Russia Phone: 8-495-772-95-90 *11864 / *11824 www.demreview.hse.ru E-mail: [email protected] Released quarterly. Published since 2014. All manuscripts are obligatory peer-reviewed. Editorial office position does not necessarily coincide with the views of the authors. Reproduction of any materials is possible only by agreement with the editorial office. © National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2019 CONTENTS English selection 2018 HERBERT SPENCER: THE UNRECOGNIZED FATHER OF THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ................. 4-24 Anatoly Vishnevsky RETHINKING THE CONTEMPORARY HISTORY OF FERTILITY: FAMILY, STATE, AND THE WORLD SYSTEM .... 25-39 Mikhail Klupt GENERATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN RUSSIA ...................................................... 40-63 Mikhail Denisenko, Vladimir Kozlov CITIES OF OVER A MILLION PEOPLE ON THE MORTALITY MAP OF RUSSIA ……………….…….…… 64-84 Aleksei Shchur ARMENIANS OF RUSSIA: GEO-DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS OF THE PAST, MODERN REALITIES AND PROSPECTS ....... 85-106 Sergei Sushchiy AN EVALUATION OF THE PREVALENCE OF MALIGNANT NEOPLASMS IN RUSSIA USING INCIDENCE-MORTALITY MODEL ............................................................................. 107-124 Rustam Tursun-zade HERBERT SPENCER: THE UNRECOGNIZED FATHER OF THE THEORY OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION ANATOLY VISHNEVSKY It is believed that the central idea of the theory of the demographic transition from an equilibrium of high to an equilibrium of low mortality and fertility was formed and became generally recognized in the middle of the twentieth century. The article shows that this idea was developed by Herbert Spencer a hundred years before, although modern demographic transition theorists never refer to him as their predecessor. The main task of the article is to bring Spencer's arguments to the current debate about the present and the future of fertility, based on the premise that these arguments not only are not outdated, but are even today largely ahead of our time. The article does not deny Spencer's misconceptions about the mechanism of fertility decline in human society, but as to the causes of this decline, the higher level of generalization inherent in Spencer's scientific worldview predetermined an understanding of these causes deeper than that developed by modern theoretical demographers. Key words: Spencer, demographic transition, mortality, fertility, ability to maintain life, ability to multiply, antagonism of reproduction and individualization, law of maintenance of races, equilibrium, causes of fertility decline, pro-natalist policy. As the famous Italian scientist and statesman Francesco Nitti claimed in the late nineteenth century, "Herbert Spencer only has the merit of being the first to formulate a broad sociological theory of the population, a theory which, though we do not accept it without completion and modification, is still, in the history of theories on population, a marvelous monument of the acumen and perspicacity of the great English sociologist "(Nitti 1894: 56-57). Such a high estimation of Spencer's contribution to population theory contrasts sharply with the place that historians of demographic thought assign to him today. In a multi-volume compendium on demography, in a chapter on the history of demographic thought, out of 65 pages Spencer is given less than 6 lines - among other supporters of the disreputable "biological approach" (Vilquin 2006: 21). Meanwhile, Spencer's views deserve much more attention from demographers, and not as a historical relic, but as a set of ideas far ahead of their time and capable of occupying an important place in modern demographic theory. This is especially true when it comes to the theoretical comprehension of what is almost the main problem of theoretical demography today - the problem of low fertility. Spencer once remarked that "inquiring into the pedigree of an idea is not a bad means of evaluating its value" (Spencer 1891a: 108). The main explanatory construction on which the scientific interpretation of modern demographic processes rests has long been the theory of the "demographic revolution" or "demographic transition". It too has its own pedigree, of which, as I try to show in this article, Spencer's views are an important, but, unfortunately, undervalued part. ANATOLY G. VISHNEVSKY ([email protected]), NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS, RUSSIA. THE STUDY CARRIED OUT WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE BASIC RESEARCH PROGRAMME AT THE NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS (HSE) IN 2017- 2018. THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE IN RUSSIAN WAS PUBLISHED IN DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW IN 2019, 6(1), 6-31. DOI: 10.17323/DEMREVIEW.V6I1.9110 DEMOGRAPHIC REVIEW. ENGLISH SELECTION 2018: 4-24 The concept of demographic transition has grown, above all, from the desire to comprehend the nature of low fertility, a relatively new phenomenon that made itself felt for the first time in the nineteenth century, initially in France and later in other countries of European culture. The formation of this concept is usually dated to the first half of the twentieth century. Its pioneers are considered to be the Frenchman Adolph Landry and the American Warren Thompson, and its definitive formulation is associated with the name of Frank Notestein and his colleagues, who worked at Princeton in the 1940s-1950s. J. Caldwell believed that "modern demographic transition theory was born almost in mature form in a paper written by Frank Notestein in 1945" (Caldwell, 1976: 323). As for me, I think that the basic ideas of the concept of the demographic transition were formulated by Spencer a hundred years before Notestein and, most importantly, at a higher level of generalization. Meanwhile, the name of Spencer is not mentioned by theorists of the demographic transition, is never found even in thick books devoted to this important historical process (see, for example, Chesnais 1992, Caldwell 2006). According to the views of the Princeton demographers, as formulated by F. Notestein in 1945, "the whole process of modernization in Europe and Europe overseas brought rising levels of living, new controls over disease, and reduced mortality," while fertility remained high, which led to rapid population growth. But by the end of the interwar period fertility in European countries had dropped even below the replacement level corresponding to the new level of mortality, while other countries had "scarcely begun their demographic transition" (Notestein 1945: 40-42), and "there is no reason that the writer knows for assuming that other regions can achieve their demographic transition without an analogous period of rapid population increase”. Nevertheless, this period would be transient, because "the control of mortality without the control of fertility is impossible", and "fertility is to fall substantially to bring in sight the end of the epoch of growth." (Ibid.: 57). It was then that the term "demographic transition" first appeared, in the title of an article whose author, K. Davis, had developed the same ideas as Notestein (Davis 1945). The industrial revolution and the changes that accompanied it had led to a rapid decline in mortality, followed by a decline in fertility and, ultimately, the establishment of a "new demographic balance." But as the decline in fertility lagged behind the decline in mortality, a gap appeared between them, which led to a huge increase in the European population. This stage turned out to be temporary, the decrease in fertility "catching up with" and sometimes even "overtaking" the decrease in mortality, so that the population in the countries of Western