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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE

WEEKLY SUMMARY

—Seeret- 50

15 March 1968 No. 0011/68

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C O N T E N T S

(Information as of noon EST, l4 March 1968)

Far East

Page

THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE l

VIETNAM 3 Communist forces avoided large-scale ground action this week but kept up the pressure on population centers in an effort to prevent the allies from conducting large-scale offensive operations through- out South . The Saigon government replaced eight province chiefs and is preparing to appoint a new group of regional civilian officials to take over some of the responsibilities of the military corps commanders. This move has already generated some grumbling among the military.

COMMUNIST DRIVE CONTINUES IN LAOS 7 The Communists are continuing to make progress in their annual dry-season offensive.

VIOLENCE DECLINES IN COMMUNIST 9 The tide continues to turn against militant Maoists, both in Peking and the provinces, and the level of disorders seems to be dropping from the high point reached in January and February.

EUIOEG

THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE ll

USSR PROTESTS BONN'S TIES WITH BERLIN l2 Moscow publicly and privately recorded its disap- proval of last week's West German parliamentary committee meetings in West Berlin, but did not re- inforce these remonstrances by conducting harassing operations.

—S-EGREHL

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A -S'E€'RE“1‘ “*“

SOVIET MILITARY AID TO EGYPT AND YEMEN The USSR has stepped up its training effort in Egypt and is continuing its extensive re-equipment of the UAR armed forces. Moscow also continues to provide military aid to the Yemeni Republic Army.

CZECHOSLOVAKIA IN TURMOIL The struggle between conservatives and liberals in the Czechoslovak is coming to a head, with more calls being heard for the immediate ouster of former party boss Novotny from the presidency and the party presidium.

POLISH REGIME SHAKEN BY PUBLIC UNREST Repressive measures so far taken by the regime have failed to curb the spread throughout the country of student demonstrations or to prevent the students from organizing to present antiregime demands. At the same time, the unrest has intensified factional struggles within the party, which may weaken party leader Gomulka's position.

WARSAW PACT SUMMIT MEETING ENDS IN DISAGREEMENT The Warsaw Pact's Political Consultative Committee adjourned its 6-7 March meeting in in open dis- agreement. Rumania's refusal to endorse the Soviet position on nonproliferation and the failure of the final communique to deal with other divisive issues, notably the German question, once more exposed the weakness of the pact as a politically unifying mech- anism.

COMMON MARKET LOOKS AT PREFERENTIAL TRADE OFFERS TO BRITAIN Debate within the European Community on Britain's bid for membership has been diverted, for the moment at least, to the possibility of a purely commercial "arrangement" with Britain.

Middle East - Africa

THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE

JARRING MISSION NEARS FAILURE United Nations special representative Jarring will soon have to report that he has been unable to bring together the warring parties in the Arab—Israeli dispute, and the issue seems fated for reconsidera- tion by the UN Security Council. ‘

—S-E-G-R—E5l“—

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PRESIDENT MAKARIOS WOOS TURK CYPRIOTS Cypriot President Makarios has relaxed his restric- tions on the Turkish Cypriots, but this and expected constitutional proposals seem to fall short of the concessions necessary to gain Turkish Cypriot agree- ment to local talks.

EXECUTIONS EMPHASIZE RHODESIAN "INDEPENDENCE" Right—wing pressures to underscore the fact of Rho- desia's "independence" apparently weighed heavily in the regime's decision to proceed with the execution of African murderers reprieved by the British crown.

Western Hemisphere

THE WEEK IN PERSPECTIVE PANAMANIAN ASSEMBLY MOVING AHEAD WITH IMPEACHMENT Activity surrounding Panama's three-week—old polit- ical crisis is focused on the impeachment of Presi- dent Robles by the Arias—controlled National Assembly, but a showdown probably will not come until late this month. There are increasing indications that Na- tional Guard chief Vallarino will take over the government himself to ward off a possible clash by the opposing factions——possibly postponing the sched- uled elections on l2 May.

3.3(h)(2)

CUBA PUSHES TRADE WITH THE FREE WORLD 's efforts to match last year's ten-percent in- crease in trade with the free world are being ham- pered by the prospect of a poor sugar harvest.

-5-E-G-RE51l

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COMMUNIST IN GUATEMALA 27 Terrorist activity in Guatemala City has been stepped up, and a major campaign of violence and sabotage is still reportedly being planned.

ELECTORAL REPLAY IN ECUADOR 28 National elections set for 2 June offer no alterna- tives to the personalistic politics that have given Ecuador the Latin American record for unconstitutional changes of government in the past 30 years.

—S-E-G-R-E51‘-

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FAR EAST

The Communist winter—spring campaign in remains in a phase of regrouping, recruit- ing, and refitting in preparation for the next round of large—scale attacks. The few significant engagements last week mainly resulted from renewed allied sweep operations. Communist initiatives were mostly limited to rocket and mortar attacks on allied positions and facilities.

3.3(h)(2) the Communists have gained in consolidating their grip on the countryside since the Tet offen- sive. The threat posed by the presence of substan- tial Communist forces near urban areas, combined with sporadic shelling and harassment, has de- pressed public morale and reduced confidence in the South Vietnamese Government.

In Saigon, the anti—Communist "National Sal- vation Front" was formally inaugurated, but its effectiveness as a vehicle for rallying public support probably will be limited by the abstention of several prominent political figures and by widespread suspicion that the front was contrived to advance the ambitions of Vice President Ky and its main sponsor, Senator Tran Van Don.

Communist forces in Laos are maintaining pressure on government positions in widely scattered areas. They captured the important guerrilla base and radar site at Phou Pha Thi in northeastern Laos on ll March and then quickly overran several small outposts in the area. They have also made small—scale attacks south of the Plaine des Jarres and are poised for another coordinated offensive {la in southern Laos, with the government base at Lao Ngam as the probable main objective.

North Korea has renewed its threat to bring the Pueblo crew to trial if the US refuses to make a formal apology. An authoritative article in the party newspaper stated that the incident could be settled "somewhat leniently" if the US would apologize, but warned that Pyongyang will take "some other measure" against the crew if the US position remains unchanged. \ 35(6)

-8-EG-RE5P

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VIET|\AM

Allied forces in several in the northern provinces of areas of South Vietnam are begin— Quang Tri and Thua Thien. Here, ning to move out from defensive the Communists appear to be planr positions held since the Commu— ning a sustained campaign to ob- nist Tet offensive and to take tain control. ' _ the initiative with renewed sweeps against enemy main force units. Most of the major ground engage— Intensified artillery, rocket, ments this week were initiated and mortar barrages were directed by the allies while the enemy against allied positions from Khe soughtgenerally to disperse into Sanh to the US Navy supply com- small units and avoid large-scale plex at Cua Viet. In this region, confrontations. The Communists the enemy is evidently preparing have, however increased pressure to take on US and South Vietnamese in the northern provinces with troops in somewhat more conven- stepped-up shelling and vigorous tional style of warfare, utiliz- logistical efforts. ing main force units, heavier firepower and even armored ve- hicles. The Communists‘ strategy ' in the present phase of their winter—spring campaign is to Increased allied search—and— evade large-scale allied offen— destroy activities resulted in sive operations in the field intense fighting during the week while at the same time keeping between allied and Communist military, economic, and psycho— forces in two strategic areas-e logical pressure on population in Quang Tri Province near Dong centers. These objectives, as Ha and in Quang Tin north and set forth in captured documents west of the provincial capital and other intelligence reports, of Tam Ky. The encounters near call for emphasis on economy—of— Dong Ha involved elements of force tactics, including continued the North Vietnamese 320th Divi- bombardments of both towns and sion, which may have been pre— allied military installations and paring offensive moves after A harassment of lines of communica- its recent shift from the cen- tion in order to isolate and in— tral DMZ area to eastern Quang - timidate the population in the Tri Province. The division may key urban areas. also have accepted battle in an effort to mask infiltration of additional enemy units along the At the same time, extensive coastal corridor. eIn the fight- enemy battle preparations are ing near Tam Ky, the US Americal being made in certain strategic Division scored two impressive areas of the country, most notably

—S-E-GR-E511

Page 3 WEEKLY SUMMARY l5 Mar 68

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victories against elements of the six such 3 3(h)(2) North Vietnamese 2nd Division. \ "delegates" who will report\ di- rectly to the interior minister in Saigon are expected to be Meanwhile, to the south, named by l April. Some corps joint US - South Vietnamese forces commanders are already voicing have begun several multibattalion doubts about the workability of operations to seek out and destroy the plan, and at least one has concentrations of enemy forces. implied that it represents a One of these is a concerted drive scheme of President Thieu to in the area surrounding the capi- build a political party apparatus tal, while another is under way in the countryside. in the Mekong Delta province of Dinh Tuong. General Le Nguyen Khang, III Corps commander, has report- Political Developments edly complained that popular sup- _in_snur_h_\L5.e_tnam_ port for the present government is deteriorating. Khang asserts that there is widespread dissatis- The Thieu government con- faction at all levels of the of- tinued to move ahead this week ficer corps over Thieu's failure with its long-promised adminis- to mobilize the anti-Communist trative reforms. On ll March. sentiment of the public in the eight province chiefs were re- wake of the Tet offensive. Khang placed, six of them for corrup- said that he knew of no coup tion or inefficiency. Some of planning by the military, but the changes had been long planned, that certain supporters of Vice two were necessitated by death President Ky were pushing the or injury, while the rest were idea of a constitutional amend- directly linked to ineffective ment that would permit Ky to step performance during the Tet offen- in as prime minister. sive. 3 3(h)(2)

The government is also mov- ing to break up the strong power of the corps commanders by strip- ping them of their civil author- ity. It plans to appoint civil- ian "delegates" to the various regions to oversee the perform- Efforts to solidify the ance of province chiefs in non- country behind the anti-Commu- military matters. [::::::::::::j nist struggle took a step forward;33(hX2)

Page 4 WEEKLY SUMMARY 15 Mar 68

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on 10 March with the formal support. Moreover, the front has launching of the People's Front not received effective backing for National Salvation, under the from President Thieu and his sup- chairmanship of Senator Tran Van porters--who are apparently or- Don. Although the front has at- ganizing rival groups. Thus the tracted a broad range of the prospects are dim that Don's or- country's political and religious ganization will play a signifi- groups, several prominent poli- cant role in rallying forces :35 C ticians and militant Buddhists against the Communists. [::::::] have apparently withdrawn active

* * *

-S'EGR-EFF

Page 5 WEEKLY SUMMARY 15 Mar 68

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COMMUNIST DRIVE CONTINUES IN LAOS

The Communists are continu- to observe and harass the enemy's ing to make progress in their lines of communication in the annual dry season offensive. northeast.

In the northeast, the Commu— There are also signs that nists succeeded in overrunning a new round of Communist attacks the important government base at in southern Laos may be in the Phou Pha Thi on ll March, in- offing. A significant enemy flicting l2 US casualties. The bui1d—up in the Bolovens Plateau loss of this base is a severe area appears to be under way. setback for friendly guerrilla At least four armored cars, in forces in the area and is the addition to supplies and replace- second US tactical navigation ment troops, were recently ob- installation to be taken this served moving into the Sedone year. Valley.

The Communists have fol- These reinforcements appear lowed up their success at Phou to be targeted against the gov- Pha Thi with the capture of a ernment regimental base at Lao number of small outlying bases Ngam, which came under heavy at- in an attempt to clear the area tack on 23 February. The enemy of guerrilla forces. The next has launched numerous probing thrust may be at the important and mortar attacks against out- government base at Na Khang, lying defensive positions in re- some 40 miles to the south. cent days, suggesting that an assault on the base itself is imminent. Although Lao Ngam Although this base has been appears to be the enemy's primary overrun in past years, given the objective, an attack against the recent setbacks in the Phou Pha provincial capital of Sarava Thi area, its loss would 3550 seriously ‘itself cannot be ruled out. Wm} impair the government's ability

-SE€HEE§*

Page 7 WEEKLY SUMMARY l5 Mar 68

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Status of Provincial Governments, ISMARCH i968

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VIOLENCE DECLINES IN COMMUNIST CHINA

The tide continues to turn Numerous posters attacking two against militant Maoists, both second—level officials have been in Peking and the provinces, displayed in Peking in the past and the level of disorders seems month. Apparently officially in- to be dropping from the high spired, the posters accuse these point reached in January and individuals of working against February. New governing author- Premier Chou En-lai. Chou contin- ities called "Revolutionary Com- ues to be the most active and hard- mittees" are being established est-working member of the top in province after province. leadership. Japanese trade dele- They are staffed mainly by vet- gates who met him on 6 March say eran military and party cadres-— the 69-year-old premier never bureaucratic types who would looked so exhausted and for the not be expected to have much first time seemed to be a tired enthusiasm for "." old man. Chou has probably over- Some appointees, who have been worked in trying to push his mod- heavily attacked by Red Guards, erate policies in Peking and force were presumably named over mili- agreements in the provinces. tants‘ objections.

In a speech on l7 January, Sixteen provincial-level Chou had indicated that his ef- committees have now been formed; forts to keep the Cultural Revolu- l3 provinces still remain under tion from disrupting military provisional military rule. The weapons programs had been less makeup of the latest committee-— than successful. He told repre- formed in Kirin on 6 March--is sentatives of defense-related fac- typical. Its chairman is a tories and schools that military local general. Two vice chair- industries were especially fac- men are military men, and the tion-ridden. He said that factions other two are former party sec- had been fighting for a year and a retaries. One has often been half, and had damaged equipment denounced by Red Guards as an in some factories, and he "im- agent of Liu Shao-chi. plored" them to stop. He singled out the ministry believed to be responsible for producing missiles, Political tensions remain and said its management was par- high, however. There are signs ticularly chaotic. Work has, in that maneuvering continues among fact, continued in the advanced leaders in Peking, that militant program and in defense industries, forces in the provinces retain but it is increasingly clear that considerable capability to create disruptions have occurred in the s.5(¢ disorder, and that olitical ast year. P 7 I I problems persist in the military.

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Page 9 WEEKLY SUMMARY 15 Mar 68

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Page 10 WEEKLY SUMMARY 15 Mar 68

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EUROPE

Events in Eastern took a dramatic turn during the week.

Student demonstrations in Poland have spread. The regime has so far been able to prevent overt support from the industrial workers. The hard- line faction in the Polish party appears to be attempting to use the student demonstrations to advance its interests and influence in the party to the detriment of Gomulka.

The struggle between liberals and conserva- tives in the Czechoslovak party has become sharper. New party first secretary Dubcek has still not con- solidated his position. The public, apparently hopeful that the liberals win out, has been cau- tious, and students and workers have refrained from demonstrations despite the example of Poland.

Pankow is apprehensive about the possible impact in East of events in both Poland and Czechoslovakia.

Moscow is saying little publicly about events in Czechoslovakia and has maintained total silence on the Polish demonstrations but is clearly watch- ing developments intently.

Soviet preoccupation with problems of the Com- munist world and especially of Eastern Europe, had already been amply demonstrated. In recent weeks, Soviet leaders made a round of visits to East European capitals. The party hierarchy is now back in Moscow, however, and the long heralded meeting of the central committee to deal with an accumulation of domestic questions may be impending.

In , unprecedented speculative demand for gold sent markets reeling this week and posed a new threat to the international monetary system. 3.5(C

-8-E-G-R—E5l“—

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USSR PROTESTS BONN'S TIES WITH BERLIN

Moscow publicly and privately Some of last week's prepara- were reminiscent of those recorded its disapproval of last tions B week's West German parliamentary that preceded a harassment cam- at the time of the last committee meetings in West Berlin, paign ! but did not reinforce these re- plenary session of the Bundestag monstrances by conducting harass- in Berlin in April I965. The ing operations. Despite some present "work week" of committees, Soviet preparations pointing to- however, was not expected to evoke ward harassment, possibly in the a reaction on a par with the 1965 form of jet "buzzings" of the event, which had ended a seven- Western sectors, the Russians did year abstention from plenary ses- not react. Although unfavorable sions in the city. weather was an inhibiting factor, it may be that the Soviets were content to let the preparations To a far greater extent than themselves make the point that the meetings of parliamentary com- they objected to Bonn's "provoca- mittees, which have occurred peri- tion." odically, the 1965 session chal- lenged the Soviet position that In a statement issued as the West Berlin is a separate entity Bundestag "work week" began on from the "two Germanies." Soviet re- 4 March, the Soviet ambassador to Embassy officials reportedly East Germany warned that the event minded members of the West Berlin was "sharpening tensions" in Berlin Senate last week that a Bundestag and inviting "undesired conse- plenary session exceeds the USSR‘s quences." Similar language was "tolerance boundary," and that used in other recent complaints, Moscow would have been forced to suggesting greater Soviet sensi- act if one had been convened last tivity to such conspicuous dis- week. Russian diplomats were at plays of Bonn—Berlin ties. Pravda pains, however, to disavow any alleged that these displays were desire to precipitate difficulties taking on "an increasingly chal- over Berlin. There was no sug- lenging character." Indeed, the gestion that the Soviets intended Soviets‘ warnings were more urgent to mount a crisis, but it was Y and their protests more numerous made clear that Moscow was taking X than was the case last October the meetings seriously and was when a previous "work week" took monitoring them closely. E::::::1 s.5(¢ place.

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SOVIET MILITARY AID T0 EGYPT AND YEMEN 3-"’('")(2)

The USSR has stepped up its ment is expected as the year pro- training effort in Egypt and is gresses._i continuing its extensive re—equip ment of the UAR armed forces. Moscow also continues to provide military aid to the Yemeni Repub- lic Army.

Concerned over the poor showing of the Arabs last June, the Soviets probably wish to as- sure themselves that the Egyptian S ability to use Soviet equipment is improving. The Soviets thus Moscow has replaced Egypt as appear to be placing special em- Yemen's chief supplier of mili- phasis on their training programs tary equipment, and since last in Egypt. It is estimated that November has furnished a basic as many as 1,500 Soviet advisers stock of weapons bv airliffii{:::j and technicians are now there, 3.3(h)(2) double the number present a year ago. Since November, the Rus- sians have taken particular in- terest in Egypt's air defense training.

Military aid deliveries, consisting largely of transport equipment, continue to arrive in Egypt. More replacement equip-

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CZECHOSLOVAKIA IN TURMOI L _

The struggle between conserva- that the press is too one—sided in tives and liberals in the Czecho- favor of the liberals. This echoes slovak CommunistParty is coming to the argument that has emerged at a head, with more calls being heard the party center, where the leader- for the immediate ouster of former ship is casting about to establish party boss Novotny from the presi- some palatable limits on the nearly dency and the party presidium. chaotic flow of public proposals for changes. Press reports on the recently completed annual party election In the meantime, party mem- meetings in 66 districts through- bers in the armed forces, the in- out the nation have brought the terior ministry, the procurator's struggle more into the open and re- office and other ministries have veal much about the feelings of called on their respective leaders the party rank and file. Despite to take an open stand on the is- opposition, virtually all of the sues currently confronting the district party organizations have regime. In addition, they have endorsed the removal last January called on their bosses, as well of Novotny from his post as party as Novotny, satisfactorily to ex— first secretary, and have called plain their roles in the defection for open and critical discussions to the US of Maj. Gen. Jan Sejna, of problems in party forums. They or to resign. are pressing the party leadership for details of the central commit- The Soviets and Poles, who tee and presidium proceedings con- are no doubt watching these devel- cerning the ouster of Novotny, par— opments anxiously, have attempted ticularly wishing to know who was to put the best face possible on opposed and on what grounds. They their limited news coverage of demand to be completely informed these events. The East Germans about the current power struggle are now becoming critical. In the and the details of the controver- meantime, Prague students have sial Dubcek "action program," which sent a resolution of support to has been billed as sharply reduc- rioting Polish students in their ing the influence of the party. "struggle for democracy."

A majority of the district Czechoslovak press commentaries organizations for the first time are increasingly calling for a re- elected their new officers and dele- evaluation of Czechoslovakia's rela- gates to forthcoming regional con- tions with the . They ferences by secret ballot. Many put great stress on their alliance joined with the main party daily, with Moscow, but make clear that Rude Pravo, in calling for the Czechoslovakia should also exert secret ballot to be mandatory in its options to establish better rela- the future. There is disagreement tions with Western Europe and the in many districts concerning the rest of the world. The Russians advisability of allowing the media have clearly decided that, for the to wash dirty party linen in pub— moment, the less said by them lic. Conservatives are charging --hebet+=er- WC

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POLISH REGIME SHA

Repressive measures taken so The focus of the crisis, how- far by the regime have failed to ever has moved to inner party curb the spread throughout the coun- councils. The open appeal to try of student demonstrations or to chronic Polish anti—Semitism seems prevent the students from organizing to signal a major effort by Inte- to present antiregime demands. At rior Minister Moczar's hard—line, the same time, the unrest has inten- nationalistic, and anti—Semitic sified factional struggles within faction to rid the party of its the party which may be weakening Jewish segment. The ouster of party leader Gomulka's position. those Jews who are pro-Gomulka mod- erates would strengthen Moczar's For the moment, the party seems hand in factional infighting. to have forestalled a student—worker coalition by employing heavy—handed The official veterans‘ organ- with an anti—Semitic and ization, one of Moczar's political anti—intellectual slant. At numer- bases, has blamed "Zionists" for ous workers‘ meetings staged the unrest, and called for their throughout the country, the party punishment "irrespective of the pushed through resolutions avowing posts they hold." Three lesser- loyalty to the regime and condemning ranking Jewish officials already the demonstrators. Few Poles, how- have been fired, and there are ever, will accept the party's anti- rumors that some Jewish members of Semitic interpretation of the riots. the central committee have also Moreover, the workers, many of them been ousted. More dismissals prob- parents of the youths involved, re- ably are imminent. portedly are increasingly sympa- thetic to the student cause. It does not appear as yet that Moczar is using the unrest in an attempt to unseat Gomulka immedi- The students have rejected re- ately. At a minimum, however, his gime charges that "Zionists" insti- faction will seek to exploit the gated "teenage toughs" to riot, recent developments in hopes of stating that those involved were swinging to its views delegates to persons "whose primary aim is so- the party congress scheduled for cialism and democracy." Student later this year. demands now center on the release of arrested demonstrators, condemnation Gomulka has failed to provide of police brutality, an end to visible leadership during the cur- biased official reporting on the un- rent crisis, while most of the rest, and a general democratization harsh antistudent propaganda is of student—regime relations. The being disseminated in his name. reported willingness of some school He may still succeed in turning authorities in Warsaw to transmit the crisis against those who are this platform to the government, and exploiting it, but continued pub- this might give the regime an open- lic unrest could lead to a major ing to begin a dialogue with the power struggle even before the students. Party °°"greSS- 3 C

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WARSAW PACT SUMMIT MEETI|\G ENDS IN DISAGREEMENT

The Warsaw Pact's Political by Rumania or by the USSR, but Consultative Committee (PCC) ad- there is little doubt that Moscow journed its 6-7 March meeting in was eager to have its Warsaw Pact Sofia in open disagreement. allies speak in unison on the NPT Rumania's refusal to endorse the question. The Russians‘ failure Soviet position on the nonpro- to achieve this on the eve of the liferation treaty (NPT and the Geneva conference deadline for failure of the final communiqué reporting the draft treaty to the to deal with other divisive is- UN is an embarrassment to them, sues, notably the German ques- and will be even more costly if tion, once more exposed the weak the Rumanian dissent contributes ness of the pact as a politi- to a loss of momentum in bringing cally unifying mechanism. Dis- the NPT to a conclusion. cord within the committee has never before been so openly Failing unanimity at Sofia, registered. the Soviets evidently decided that a statement from six of the seven The communiqué issued by participants was better than no the PCC, which is composed of statement at all. As at the meet- party and state leaders of the ing of Communist parties at Buda- seven active Warsaw Pact coun- pest a week earlier, the Soviets tries, suggests this meeting was chose not to accept the lowest the least productive in the l3- common denominator by making con- year history of the pact. It cessions to the dissenting Ruman- did reiterate the bloc's unani- ians. mous support for the Vietnamese Communists, but on the NPT it The Rumanian position is noted only that each delegation that the draft treaty would divide expressed its own position. the nuclear "haves" and "have Rumania's refusal to join its nots" of the world. Bucharest allies in signing a statement also apparently views the treaty endorsing the NPT was the first as yet another example of im- time the PCC has publicized a pingement on the national sov- failure to reach agreement on ereignty of small nations by great one of its agenda items. Refer- powers. This position is also ences to European security and self—serving, however, as the other topical issues normally Rumanians are using NPT to point covered at these conferences up their resolute independence of Moscow and their growing identi- were omitted from the communiqué r pointing to disagreement on thes e fication with the non—Communist issues as well. world.

It is not entirely clear Bucharest, nevertheless, is whether the meeting was called expected eventually to sign the

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treaty, reportedly on the grounds to a degree at the last PCC meet- that it is better than none at ing in July 1966, when Rumania all. Presumably the Rumanians successfully challenged Soviet hope to profit from what prestige efforts to impose stricter con- there may be in finally signing trols over the organization. The up at the General Assembly, whose failure at Sofia now calls into president at that time will be question the value of convening their foreign minister. the PCC in the future. K::::::j 3fKC Kiiiiiiij The political cohesiveness of the Warsaw Pact was undermined s.5(¢)

COMMON MARKET LOOKS AT PREFERENTIAL TRADE OFFERS TO BRITAIN

Debate within the European tains that such a setup, how- Community (EC) on Britain's bid ever, should not be considered for membership has been diverted, a substitute for membership. for the moment at least, to the possibility of a purely commer- cial "arrangement" with Britain. As a result the commission has also had to shift ground, although it is unclear whether The possibility of a com— this is permanent. At the coun- mercial arrangement was suggested cil session on 29 February, it by De Gaulle as long ago as 1963. had rejected a deal based on He reiterated it last November commercial provisions (Article and on the occasion of Kiesinger's lll) of the Rome Treaty because visit to Paris last month. It it ignored the applicants‘ pend- has subsequently been taken up ing membership bids. Last week, by Bonn. The Germans had origi— however, commission president nally held that any arrangement Rey stated that although the ought to be consistent with the commission had always opposed a community treaty's provisions free trade area, it would examine for admitting new members. When the possibility of a preferential the Council of Ministers met on trading area under Article lll. 9 March, they had apparently The Italians and Dutch reminded come around to the French view the council that this would run that a commercial relationship counter to GATT obligations, but would be possible. Bonn main— both the Germans and French

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argue that this is not necessar- ish, particularly on technology, ily so. produced an impasse with the French on 9 March which resulted The French, in fact, are in deferring further debate un- suspicious that Bonn's proposals til a commission opinion is sub- aim at a comprehensive free trade mitted on the German, Benelux, zone. Paris favors bilateral, and Italian proposals on 5 April. rather than multilateral, nego- Belgium's presentation suggested tiation of commercial preferences that the Benelux proposal was Couve de Murville did, however, now, however, a condition for reverse a previous French posi- considering the German proposals. tion by admitting on 9 March The object of the French, pre- that tariff reductions could be sumably, is to head off the Bene- either general (linear—-as the lux-Italian approach while pre- Germans wish) or product by venting the Germans from becom- product (sectoral). In all prob- ing enamored of free trade as a ability, Paris would ultimately solution to the community stale- agree to exchanging no more than -mate. limited trade preferences with European nonmembers of the EC. At the moment, the French are The Italians, Dutch, and guided mainly by the desire to Belgians on 9 March deplored divert attention from the Benelux that the membership issue was and Italian proposals for estab- absent from the German paper. lishing consultations between As long as the Five as a whole the community and the British. are reluctant to stand up to the Consideration of commercial French on this central question, schemes might, they would hope, however, there will be a tend— _ promote this diversion. ency to seek a lower common denominator in preferential arrangements, despite the prob- Benelux insistence on com- lems they raise. E:::::::::::::] gfxc) 7 munity cooperation with the Brit-

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MIDDLE EAST — AFRICA

Egyptian President Nasir's answer to recent antiregime demonstrations and to the apparent fail- ure of the Jarring mission has been a series of militant speeches to army units, in which he ex- pressed pessimism about a political solution of the Arab—Israeli impasse and called for increased Arab military preparedness.

The National Liberation Front government of Southern Yemen has unequivocally and vociferously aligned itself with the socialist world, espous- ing liberation struggles throughout the Persian Gulf — Arabian Peninsula area.

The Shah of Iran has returned to Tehran in an uneasy frame of mind as he faced the annual US—Iranian military consultations, a possible showdown session with the Western oil consortium, and suspected plotting by ex—premier Amini.

The Rhodesian regime, apparently seeking to underscore its "sovereignty," has executed two more African murderers, but has commuted the death sentences of 44 other condemned men whose clemency appeals had been addressed to the rebel- appointed "governor" rather than to Queen Eliza- beth. In various African capitals, anti—British demonstrations were sparked by the executions, and appeals for UN action are in the offing.

Cyprus President Makarios has taken the first of his promised "initiatives" toward easing intercommunal tensions, lifting the four-year- old ban on Turkish Cypriot movements and economic activity.

In the Nigerian civil war, the federal offen- sive has made little progress lately. Through Ghana's General Ankrah, the Organization of African Unity has again been trying to find a common frame- work within which negotiations could begin. Neither General Gowon nor Colonel Ojukwu, however, has made any moves toward compromising ' his LL? idly held position. 3 5 C

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JARRING MISSION NE/-\RS FAILURE

United Nations special rep- tary units Nasir accused the US resentative Jarring will soon have of working with Israel to "hu- to report that he has been unable miliate the Arabs," and vowed to bring together the warring that they will not bow to this parties in the Arab-Israeli dis- pressure and "will never nego- pute, and the issue seems fated tiate." for reconsideration by the US Se- curity Council. A number of factors have ap- parently played a role in causing Jarring has seemingly failed Egypt to adopt a tougher stand. in his attempts to get the Arab Recent Israeli actions in the states and Israel to agree on any occupied territories, possibly kind of talks on how to implement pointing toward annexation, have the Security Council resolution convinced the Arabs that Tel on the Middle East. Egypt had ap- Aviv plans to keep at least some parently hoped that the clauses of the territory it now holds. of the resolution could be imposed Egypt's internal problems may on the parties concerned, thereby also have contributed to the avoiding any direct contact be- stiffening attitude in Cairo. The tween the Arab states and Israel. recent unrest, stemming partly This was reflected in a recent from the frustrations of the con- Egyptian editorial which suggested tinued Israeli occupation of Arab that Jarring was not a mediator, territory, have worried the Nasir but was "charged with implementing regime, and apparently have the resolution." Israel's posi- caused it to recoil from any ac- tion, according to a statement at- tions that could be construed as tributed to Foreign Minister Eban, bowing to Israeli pressure. has been that "the final frontiers will be settled in the course of direct and peaceful negotiations." Egyptian press reports are now anticipating an early return of the Arab-Israeli issue to the Although there was some mo— Security Council, and are also mentary speculation that the Arabs presenting Cairo's view that fur- might agree to send a delegation ther efforts to find a solution to Cyprus for indirect talks under "must be preceded by an Israeli Jarring's auspices, Egypt has now declaration of preparedness to completely rejected this idea. implement the Security Council According to Cairo radio, in a resolution on the Middle East." recent address to Egyptian mili- s.5(¢

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PRESIDENT MAKARIOS W008 TURK CYPRIOTS

President Makarios late last Initial reports on Makarios' consti- week issued the first of his prom- tutional proposals likewise indicate ised "initiatives" by removing all that he made no reference to a Tur- economic and travel restrictions on kish Cypriot vice president. This the Turkish Cypriot community, in- omission seems sure to draw an un- cluding those on the Turkish enclave qualified Turkish Cypriot rejection around Nicosia. Restrictions On of the proposals. Also missing is movement in other sectors of the is- any reference to the handling of land had been lifted earlier. police powers, sure to be a sticky point in any neogitations and a The removal of the ban on in- factor inthetensions leading up tercommunal contact could generate to the fighting in December 1963. an atmosphere conducive to useful talks on the island's problems, but Secretary General Thant recom- Turkish Cypriot officials have re- mended on ll March that the UN peace sponded to it warily and with re- force (UNFICYP) mandate, due to ex- straint. Although a number of Tur- pire 26 March, be extended until kish Cypriots have been observed in 26 June. He applauded Makarios' places barred to them since the out- normalization efforts, called on break of trouble in December 1963, the Turkish Cypriots to make simi- they must still obtain permits from lar gestures, and announced his in- their own officials before leaving tention to call for intercommunal Turkish enclaves. Turkish Cypriot discussions focused on Makarios' authorities have yet to remove lim- pending constitutional proposals. itations on Greek Cypriot movement Although Ankara and the Turkish in Turkish areas. Cypriot leaders probably will not do much to rock the boat before ap- Unfettered intermingling of proval of the UNFICYP extension, Turkish and Greek Cypriots could their distrust of U Thant will prob- weaken the rigid control exercised ably bar any intercommunal talks un- over the Turkish community by its der UN auspices. leaders and thereby degrade its bar- gaining position with the rival com— munity. Consequently, it seems The rotation of a portion of likely that the Turkish Cypriot the Turkish mainland troop contin- leaders, with the advice of Ankara, gent scheduled for 29 March is not will attempt to limit the degree of expected to produce the kind of intercommunal contact. haggling that has occurred over some past rotations. Permanent removal Not included in the "normaliza- of all foreign troops except the tion" was Makarios' earlier ban on UNFICYP, however, remains on of foreign ambassadorial contact with Makarios' long—term objectives. Turkish Cypriot Vice President Kucuk Z 3_5

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EXECUTIONS ENPHASIZE RHODESIAN "INDEPENDENCE" 1

The rebel white minority re- Africans as a symbol of the regime's gime in executed two more strength, especially since the Af- Africans this week, but it commuted ricans had appealed for mercy to the sentences of 44 others to life the RF-appointed "Governor" and not imprisonment, apparently in a two- to the British Queen, as did those handed attempt both to reassert executed last week. The regime its sovereignty and to assuage hos- must soon decide the fate of 40—odd tile world reaction to the execu- Africans remaining under death sen- tions. tence. This decision may cause ad- ditional conflict within the RF. The Rhodesian regime claims Unlike the Africans recently exe- that the execution within the last cuted, many of those under sentence two weeks of five Africans con- were convicted under laws passed by victed of murder was a proper re- the rebel regime after it broke with sponsibility of Prime Minister Britain. Some of them were con- Smith's de facto government. None- victed under a controversial "anti- theless, the government had pri- guerrilla" law that decrees the vately recognized the particularly death penalty for anyone entering provocative nature of this step, the country bearing unspecified the most emotion—ridden of its two- "weapons of war." year series of acts of defiance of British legal authority. 3.3(h)(2) The government apparently made a deliberate decision that the added difficulty to negotiat- ing a settlement with Britain, which world hostility to the exe- cutions would bring, was outweighed by the need to reassert Rhodesia's T ere "independence." Extremist members is little more that can be done with of the ruling Rhodesian Front (RF), sanctions, however, without direct- who have been pressing for a total ing them toward Rhodesia's trade break with London, reportedly put routes through and Mo- strong pressure on Smith during a zambique--a move Britain has spe- six—hour cabinet meeting. As many cifically ruled out. as one third of the RF members of parliament are said to have threat- Meanwhile, several African and ened revolt against Smith if at other states are pressing for a least some of the executions were special meeting of the UN Security not carried out. Council to take up the Rhodesia situation. Some African represen- Smith's government doubtless tatives, however, are pessimistic views its decision this week to about getting significant UN action. commute the death sentences of some s.5(¢

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WESTERN HEMISPHERE

Domestic political activity increased in Latin America this week.

In Panama, the opposition timetable calls for completion of impeachment proceedings against Pres- ident Robles by the end of this month.

Campaigning for the national elections in _ _ Ecuador on 2 June has caused several clashes, and all concerned expect further violence, a usual ac- companiment to Ecuadorean political activity.

Colombia will elect another congress on Sun- day, but pre—election apathy suggests no signifi- cant changes in the political life of the country.

In Uruguay, rumors of impending cabinet changes persist. President Pacheco needs the help of as many political factions as possible if he is to suc- ceed in pushing vital economic legislation through congress.

The governing coalition of Venezuela may soon _ end its boycott of the senate. Considerable resid- ual ill-will may color future debates, but the pre—election image-consciousness of all parties will enforce at least superficial cooperation.

In El Salvador, the leading opposition party made strong gains in the legislative and municipal elections on l0 March. The results will hamper im- plementation of the Sanchez administration's reform 1’ program.

Insurgency and terrorism continued in at least

three Latin American countries. Five Colombian sol— I diers were killed on 7 March by Communist guerrillas, who were probably reacting to aggressive army patrol— if i"7'_ ling. Terrorist activity in Guatemala City has been stepped up, 3 3(h)(2)_

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PANAMANIAN ASSEMBLY MOVING AHEAD WITH IMPEACHMENT

Activity surrounding Pan— Despite sensationalized press coverage, however, the public ama's three—week-old political A apathetic crisis is focused on the impeach— has generally remained ment of President Robles by the throughout the crisis. Many opposition—controlled National Panamanians are disgusted with see as Assembly, but a showdown prob- the situation, which they will not come until late just another power struggle among ably controlled this month. the families who have the country since independence. concerned, On ll March, Arnulfo Arias‘ Business leaders are believe that a Union (NU) bloc in the however, and some National Guard assembly initiated formal im— take-over by the National against is the only way out of the crisis. peachment proceedings ap- Robles for interference All efforts at compromise President because the electoral process. After pear to have collapsed in of both hearing the pro-Arias investi- of the hardening attitude commission's recommenda- sides. Arias is reportedly in- gating impeachment tions that the charges against tent upon pushing the accepted, govern- all the way. He no doubt recalls the President be Robles--now deputies requested that all that deputy Marco the ment impeach him documentary evidence be read into President-—voted to the record. This, and other in 1951. parliamentary blocking tactics, have been delaying a vote to im— General Vallarino and the peach Robles. . National Guard will decide the refuses to The news media of the NU outcome. If Vallarino decision to have publicized a timetable call- enforce an assembly Arias and his fol- ing for a trial beginning on remove Robles, stage street demon- 22 March and a guilty verdict by lowers may and possibly a general 26 March. strations strike. On the other hand, re- specting the assembly's orders §33(hX2) The oppos1- could bring government support- prefers to await ers into the streets against the tion increasing indi- final verdict, at which time Guard. There are the Vallarino believes the assembly would issue orders cations that the dilemma by in- to National Guard Commandant he can evade Vallarino to replace stalling himself as head of a Bolivar regime—-an action that with the pro-Arias first provisional Robles postponement of the vice president. might cause elections scheduled for l2 May.

Guard has been 35x0)' The National \ \ on the alert to prevent violence.

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CUBA PUSHES TRADE W:TH THE FREE WORLD Cuba's efforts to match last some $150 million, and imports year's l0—percent increase in trade reached $240 million. with the free world are being ham- pered by the prospect of a poor Imports from France sugar last year harvest. More than the usual rose by more than $40 million; number of contracts are currently , , and West under Germany discussion with non-Communist also significantly increased de- suppliers, and imports, partly on liveries. The increase was largely credit, may continue to grow. Cuban accounted for by machinery export and earnings in free world cur- equipment, including construction rencies will probably decline un- and transportation equipment, and less sugar delivery commitments to fertilizer. The only sizable de- Communist countries are reduced. cline in imports was from Spain, where purchases fell by about Cuba $55 apparently will receive million following completion of another substantial increase in delivery of ships and other in- credits from the free world in 1968, dustrial equipment under large but mounting repayments obligations credits extended several years ago. may hold net borrowing this year close to the l967 level. Cuba's debt to free world suppliers prob- Contract negotiations so far ably increased by about $50 million this year cover a broad range of last year,reaching an estimated items. Cuba has approached most total of $150 million. Exports West European countries, as well have been adequate to service these as Japan, seeking to purchase on credits and keep repayments on credit a large number of shrimp schedule. Although Cuba's credit trawlers and refrigerated fish standing is fairly good, it may be vessels. Cuba also is negotiating weakened somewhat by poor prospects for other industrial and transporta for the sugar crop and the rising tion equipment in Western Europe. evidence of strain in its relations with the USSR. Credits available Cuban trade prospects with to Cuba from Soviet—controlled the free world in 1968 will be banks in Western Europe have been influenced to a large degree by tightened, and some free world the outcome of trade talks with creditors fear that general Soviet the USSR, which have been under support to the Cuban economy may way in Moscow since October and be cut back. are more difficult than usual. There is no sign yet, however, that tensions have become so severe Cuban trade with free world as to cause the USSR to cut off countries now accounts for nearly hard currency payments to Cuba one quarter of Cuba's total trade. or to refuse to agree to another Exports to the free world in 1967, cutback in its sugar allocation. principally sugar, were valued at

\ s.5(¢)

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COMMUNIST TERRORISM IN GUATEMALA

Terrorist activity under- and bus garages were bombed on taken by the Communist Rebel Armed 4 March. The FAR has claimed ree Forces (FAR) during the past week sponsibility for the bombing and continues in Guatemala City, add- probably was involved in the other ing further evidence that the FAR actions . may be gearing up for a new revo- 3_3(h)(2) lutionary phase. There may be further con- fusion in the movement, which is already complicated by the division between the FAR and PGT and by continued factionalism within each group. The Maryknoll missionaries-—the Melville group-— The organization has the expelled by the government for col- necessary men and weapons for an laboration with the insurgents are extensive, although perhaps not a organizing their own "revolutionary sustained, campaign of violence movement." Now based in Mexico in the capital. Recently sepa- near the Guatemalan border, and rated from the Moscow—oriented accompanied by 25 students from Guatemalan Communist Party (PGT), well—to-do families, they appar- the FAR reportedly now has the as- ently plan to arm themselvesR4444444444447 and sistance of Cuban guerrilla in- re enter Guatemala. structors working in Guatemala. I3-3(h)(2)

The residence of the US Ma- rine guards was bombed on the eve- 3 ning of l2 March, but no one was 3(h)(2) injured. Last week, three bombs ex- ploded in the capital near police headquarters, and a military base on the outskirts of the city was brought under bazooka fire on the night of 7 March. Two soldiers were killed and 25 wounded in the attack. The previous night the driver of a payroll truck was killed in an armed that netted the attackers about $11,000,

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ELECTORAL REP_AY IN ECUADOR

National elections set for from Velasco's popular appeal to June offer no alternatives to broaden their own political 2 has the personalistic politics that bases. Velasco, however, support from have given Ecuador the Latin Amer- spurned offers of Otto Aro- ican record for unconstitutional one, Interim President his changes of government in the past semena, and even charged with planning elec- 30 years. government toral fraud. The President "sav- Of three former presidents in claims to be maintaining apparently in the race, charismatic 75-year-old age neutrality," can retain his Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra has been the hope that he considered almost certain to win office if violence upsets the although he lacks any real program election schedule. served out only one of the and has ac- terms to which he has been Surprisingly, Velasco four other elected in the past. Camilo Ponce cepted support from the Arosemena, the candidate of conservative cousin, Carlos Julio is out of office forces, and Andres Cordoba repre- who maneuvered him center left. Jose in 1961 and was himself ousted sents the Com- Crespo Toral, a far rightist, by the military in l963. that time, boasts that he is the only non — pletely discredited at ex-president running. Arosemena had regained enough political influence by 1967 to be Assem- Some violence usually accom- elected to the Constituent panies Ecuador's elections, and bly. He made his comeback by government officials fear that engineering alliances with labor and extremist lack of sufficient equipment may unions, students, ability of the security groups--many of them hard—line hamper the use- forces to handle outbreaks. Sup- Communists-—who see him as a porters of Ponce and Velasco have ful front. He is counting on clashed several times, Velasco's influence to secure already legis- even before Velasco returned from the election of a group of he can lead in pass- abroad on 9 March to begin his lators whom and campaign. His homecoming, how- ing an extremist program himself to ever, was uneventful, and the wel- later use to restore coming crowd fell so far below ex- power when Velasco's age or a pectations--both in numbers and in repetition of his past excesses enthusiasm--that observers are re- leads to his removal. assessing his chances of election. Meanwhile, the generally un- pre- evident apathy toward stable atmosphere of the The height- choosing among the same old candi- electoral period may be encourage the maneuver- ened by a Latin American Commu- dates may scheduled two younger men, cousins nist labor conference ing of with whose short presidential terms to be held soon in Quito approval. have whetted their taste for President Arosemena's power. Both would like to profit 35¢

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