Daily Energy Report

Wednesday, 13 November 2019

Market Snapshot Source: TGP/ICE/APX Gas €/MWh Power Baseload €/MWh Peakload €/MWh Contract Latest Close Contract Latest Close Latest Close Day Ahead 14.73 15.05 Day Ahead 48.00 47.42 53.50 - Weekend 15.00 - WDNW - - Dec-19 15.33 15.55 Dec-19 43.80 44.00 50.75 50.77 Jan-20 16.03 16.24 Jan-20 49.05 49.04 58.20 58.10 Feb-20 16.23 16.43 Feb-20 49.90 49.93 59.20 59.02 Q1-10 14.93 16.27 Q1-10 44.00 48.08 48.40 56.24 Sum-20 14.90 15.05 Sum-20 44.00 44.15 48.40 48.10 Win-20 17.95 18.09 Win-20 44.10 44.41 50.10 50.38 Sum-21 16.53 16.58 Sum-21 50.45 50.14 61.60 61.74 Win-21 18.28 18.29 Win-21 - 51.25 - 59.17 Cal-20 15.87 16.01 Cal-20 46.65 46.70 54.30 54.13 Cal-21 17.45 17.40 Cal-21 46.80 46.64 55.35 55.18 Cal-22 17.35 17.40 Cal-22 47.50 47.17 57.10 57.00

€/MWh Gas movement session-on-session Power Baseload Movement Session-On-Session Close Latest €/MWh Close Latest 20 80 15 60 10 40 5 20 0 0

APX DAM Settlement DA/WE TGP Assessment €/MWh €/MWh APX DAM 30 Day Moving Avg DA & WE Settlement 30 Day Moving Avg 16 55 50 12 45 40 8 35 4 30 25 0 20 Daily Energy Report

Gas Overview

NW Europe DA Assessment TTF vs NBP/ZEE/NCG Basis Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters

ZEE NCG TTF NBP TTF vs ZEE TTF vs NBP NBP vs ZEE €/MWh €/MWh TTF vs NCG NBP vs TTF 18.00 3.0 2.5 16.00 2.0 14.00 1.5 1.0 12.00 0.5 0.0 10.00 -0.5 8.00 -1.0 -1.5 6.00 -2.0

Russian vs Norwegian Flows to NWE Forecasted Continental Demand Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters GWh/d Total Imports from Norway Russia Main Three Lines GWh/d Netherlands Germany France Belgium 5000 9000 8000 4500 7000 4000 6000 3500 5000 3000 4000 2500 3000 2000 2000 1000 1500 0 1000

Dutch Grid Imbalance Source: Thomson Reuters

80 Large Short Imbalance 60 Short Imbalance 40 20 Minor Short Imbalance

0 Large Long Imbalance GWh -20 Long Imbalance -40 Minor Long Imbalance -60 -80 Imbalance Helpers Imbalance Causers Net Imbalance Daily Energy Report

Storage Overview

European stock levels (%) Sat 09 Fri 08 Change Source: Thomson Reuters AUT 100 100 0 BEL DEU FRA ITA BEL 97 97 0 % NLD UK UKR DEU 100 100 0 ESP 95 95 0 120 FRA 99 99 0 100 HUN 98 98 0 80 ITA 99 99 0 60 40 NLD 95 95 0 20 POL 99 99 0 0 UK 95 95 0 UKR 71 71 0

LNG Overview

Waterborne Landed LNG prices ($/MMBTU) Continental Europe LNG Send out Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters Belgium Netherlands France Italy Iberian Peninsula Japan South Korea China GWh/d Belgium France UK 3500 $/MMBTU 3000 7 6.5 2500 6 2000 5.5 5 1500 4.5 1000 4 500 3.5 3 0

Netherlands LNG Tankers (mcm) Source: Thomson Reuters LNG tanker Volume (mcm) Arrival From Terminal Tembek 129 16-Nov Qatar Gate Vladimir Voronin 105 16-Nov Russia Gate Daily Energy Report

Power Overview

German Market €/MWh Source: Thomson Reuters French Market €/MWh Source: Thomson Reuters Contract 12-Nov-19 11-Nov-19 Change Contract 12-Nov-19 11-Nov-19 Change Day Ahead 47.08 42.20 11.6% Day Ahead 56.49 48.45 17% Month Ahead 39.66 41.00 -3.3% Month Ahead 49.06 49.48 -1% Cal 2020 45.15 45.94 -1.7% Cal 2020 43.64 43.79 0% Cal 2021 46.79 47.44 -1.4% Cal 2021 37.82 38.76 -2%

NLD Wind Generation forecast NLD Solar Generation Forecast Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters MW MW EC00 Ens 13 Nov Normal EC00 Ens 13 Nov 2000 200 1800 180 1600 160 1400 140 1200 120 1000 100 800 80 600 60 400 40 200 20 0 0

NLD Available capacity Today's Nominated BritNed Interconnector Flows Source: EEX Transparency Non-Usability MW Source:RTE MW Coal Gas 1200 12000 Flow to UK 10000 1000

8000 800

6000 600

4000 400

2000 200

0 0 Daily Energy Report

Wider Fuels Overview

Brent Fwd USD/bbl $/bbl Source: Thomson Reuters Brent Fwd USD/bbl 80 70 60 50 40

Exchange rates Source: Thomson Reuters EUR/USD EUR/GBP 1.2 0.95

0.9 1.1 0.85

1 0.8

Coal and Carbon Price Movement Source : Thomson Reuters €/tonne EU ETS Coal $/tonne 35 100

30 90

25 80

20 70

15 60 Daily Energy Report

Weather Summary

NL Actual and Forecast Temperatures BE Actual and Forecast Temperatures Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters

°C Actuals Forecast Normal °c Actuals Forecast Normal

9 10 8

7 6

4 5 2

3 0

DE Actual and Forecast Temperatures FR Actual and Forecast Temperatures Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Thomson Reuters

°c °c Actuals Forecast Normal Actuals Forecast 10 12 8 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 Daily Energy Report

Wednesday, 13 November 2019

APX Amsterdam Power Exchange. Run spot market platforms across Europe (formerly UKPX in the UK) API American Petrolium Institute ARA Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp. Coal Price Hub Backwardation Description of a market when spot prices are higher than prices for futures Base Load Constant power load for 24 hours per day BBL Pipeline UK-Netherlands gas pipeline (from Balgzand, Netherlands, to Bacton, UK) Beach gas The point at which gas is brought ashore to terminals before entering the NTS Bid The price at which a party is willing to buy at BOM (Balance of Month) The traded market for delivery for the remaining days in the month excluding the following day Brent Crude Traded on the ICE and based upon North Sea Oil Cashout The price charged for being imbalanced at the end of a period CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine. The most common type of turbine used for generating electricity from burning gas Clean Spread The generating margin for Gas and Coal Fired electricity plant after the cost of EU ETS carbon allowances has been removed Contango The natural market situation whereby the anticipated value of the spot market in the future is higher than the current spot market Counterpart Party to a transaction Crack Spread A type of commodity-product spread involving the purchase of crude oil futures and the sale of gasoline and heating oil futures Curve Refers to the futures market. Includes everything beyond the current month going forwards DA (Day-Ahead Market) The traded market for delivery for the following day Dark Spread Represents the theoretical margin for a coal fired power plant. If a dark spread is positive, then the price of the power is higher than that of the fuel and the spread is profitable EFA Month The EFA (Electricity Forwards Agreement) Calendar EU ETS EU Emissions Trading Scheme, one of the policies being introduced across Europe to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide Firm Capacity Capacity purchased in advance guaranteeing the ability of shippers and producers to flow gas into UK terminals GigaWatt (GW) A unit of power equal to 1,000MW/1,000,000kW Hedge A trade to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in an asset ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) London based exchange trading oil,gas oil and natural gas futures IFA (UK-France Interconnector) 2000MW subsea power line connecting the UK and French grids Kilowatt (kW) A unit of power equal to 1,000 Watts Kilowatt hour (kWh) The amount of energy used by a 1kW load if this is consumed for an hour Langeled Pipeline Pipeline bringing Norwegian gas into the UK at Easington LEBA London Energy Broker Association Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Natural Gas supercooled to form a liquid for ease of storage and transportation Liquidity The ability of market participants to easily enter into or unwind a transaction helping parties to buy or sell relatively close to the previous sale Long Refers the NTS or a counterparty holding more of a commodity than necessary for their current/future demand MCM million cubic metres (1 mcm of gas = 358,694 therms) MegaWatt (MW) A unit of power equal to 1,000,000 Watts MMJ Million mega joules (1MMJ = 9,478 therms) MWh The amount of energy used by a 1MW load if this is consumed for an hour National Grid High Voltage electricity Transmission System for the UK NBP (National Balancing Point) A notional point in the UK NTS used as a delivery point for gas rather than at the beach. For accounting and balancing purposes all gas is said to flow through this point NGT (National Grid Transco) Operator and owner of the UK Electricity Grid UK and Gas National Transmission System. NTS (National Transmission The UK high-pressure pipeline system, owned by NGT, used to transport gas between terminals, storage facilities, large consumers and System) regional sites OFGEM Office of Gas and Electricity Markets - The Energy Regulator Peak Load Electricity load between 07:00 & 19:00 Monday to Friday Power Exchange Trading arena in which electricity can be bought/sold close to real time Prompt Market Essentially the same as the Spot or Short Term Market Settlement Period For the UK network each Half-hour during the day to which the system is balanced Shipper Any company with the ability to transport gas around a pipeline network Short Refers to the NTS or a counterparty holding less of a commodity than necessary to meet their current/future demand. Spark Spread Represents the theoretical margin for a gas fired power plant. If a spark spread is positive, then the price of the power is higher than that of the fuel and the spread is profitable Speculation To hold a market position with no offsetting hedge to take advantage of anticipated market movements Spot Market The market where energy commodities are traded in cash/physically and delivered immediately, not as futures Spread The difference between the bid and offer price System Buy Price The weighted average of the Offer prices of those accepted Offers in the settlement period System Sell Price The weighted average of the Bid prices of those accepted Bids in the settlement period Take or Pay The obligation of a customer to pay for a specified amount of gas whether this is taken or not TTF Title Transfer Facility (The Dutch equivalent of the NBP) Value at Risk (VAR) The measure of how the market value of a portfolio will decrease over a given period of time with a given probability WD (Within-Day Market) The traded market for delivery on the current day (not available on the electricity market) WDNW (Working Days Next Week) The traded market for delivery on the working days of the following week Weekend Market The traded market for delivery for the following weekend WTI Crude Oil (West Texas Intermediate) Traded on the NYMEX and the most commonly used oil benchmark. Zeebrugge Hub The Belgian equivalent of the UK NBP Disclaimer: The above information is supplied without any assumption of liability and you accept, by accepting the information, that we are not liable to you for your use of the information. While reasonable endeavours are taken to ensure that the information in this report is obtained from reliable sources, it is not guaranteed for accuracy. The views set forth are solely of those of the authors and not intended to provide advice or recommendations as the customer is solely responsible for its market decisions. Views expressed are subject to change without notice. Be aware that views stated are incidental to the business of Total Gas and Power Ltd. and its affiliates which are engaged in swaps, forwards, options and cash transactions for their own accounts. The information must not be copied, distributed or published without our express permission.