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Patrick Heather March 2010 The Evolution and Functioning of the Traded Gas Market in Britain Patrick Heather NG 44 August 2010 i The contents of this paper are the authors‟ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2010 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-907555-15-2 ii Preface Trading has revolutionised the commercial operation of the British gas market since the mid-1990s, and promises to have a similar impact in Continental Europe in the 2010s. Yet it is very difficult for those outside the industry to understand exactly how gas trading evolved and how it operates. Patrick Heather‟s long experience of trading energy commodities, and the fact that he worked as a gas trader from the start of these activities in the UK, make him an ideal author of this study. Patrick was one of the Gas Programme‟s first research fellows and we have benefitted a great deal from his experience of the commercial side of UK and European gas markets. I am very grateful to him for seeing this paper through to publication. It is a valuable contribution to the gas literature in a very under-researched area of the subject. Jonathan Stern, Oxford iii Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 2. Historical background ............................................................................................................... 1 2.1 The Power of Privatisation ........................................................................................................ 1 2.2 The Process of Change ............................................................................................................... 2 2.3 British, Americans and Continental Europeans! ....................................................................... 4 3. NTS, Network Code and NBP ................................................................................................... 6 3.1 National Transmission System ................................................................................................... 6 3.2 The Network Code ...................................................................................................................... 7 3.3 National Balancing Point........................................................................................................... 9 4. Balancing and Nominations ...................................................................................................... 9 4.1 Balancing ................................................................................................................................... 9 4.2 Nominations ............................................................................................................................. 10 4.3 Standardised Trading and the NBP’97 .................................................................................... 11 5. The Functioning of Today's Traded Market .......................................................................... 12 5.1 Natural Gas – the Physical Commodity ................................................................................... 12 5.2 Natural Gas – the Traded Commodity ..................................................................................... 19 5.3 Main Participants .................................................................................................................... 20 5.4 Reasons for Trading ................................................................................................................. 21 Physical purchase/sale................................................................................................................ 21 Financial Hedge ......................................................................................................................... 21 Example of how a company can protect its profit margin through hedging: ............................. 22 Risk management of portfolio.................................................................................................... 23 Portfolio optimization ................................................................................................................ 23 Speculation and Profit!............................................................................................................... 24 5.5 Routes to Market ...................................................................................................................... 24 Direct Bilateral Contracts........................................................................................................... 24 Over-the-counter Trades............................................................................................................. 25 Financial (Paper) Trades ............................................................................................................ 25 Options ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Exchange Futures and Cleared Trades ....................................................................................... 25 ICE Futures Contract ................................................................................................................. 26 5.6 Method of Trading .................................................................................................................... 28 5.7 Trading Activity ........................................................................................................................ 28 5.8 Contractual Documentation ..................................................................................................... 28 5.9 Market Transparency ............................................................................................................... 29 iv 6. Price Drivers ............................................................................................................................. 29 6.1 Bilateral Contracts and Their Indexation ................................................................................ 29 Pre-1990 gas contracts ............................................................................................................... 30 Post 1990 long term contracts .................................................................................................... 30 Post 2000 contracts .................................................................................................................... 30 6.2 The effect of the 2008 recession ............................................................................................... 30 6.3 The Role of LNG ...................................................................................................................... 31 6.4 Trading drivers - UK ................................................................................................................ 32 6.5 Trading drivers - Continent ...................................................................................................... 32 7. From the 2000‟s to the 2010‟s and beyond… ......................................................................... 32 7.1 Commercial prospects for the UK gas market ......................................................................... 32 8. Summary and Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 34 Appendix A. Map of the National Transmission System ............................................................. 37 Appendix B. “NBP‟97” specimen contract ................................................................................... 38 Appendix C. Conversion values ..................................................................................................... 48 Appendix D. ICE UK NBP Natural Gas Futures Contract specification .................................. 50 Glossary............................................................................................................................................. 52 Tables Table 1: BG‟s declining market share (%) 1990-1996 .................................................................... 4 Table 2: Fuel used in electricity generation: selected years 1998 - 2008 ..................................... 14 Table 3: Power stations which have „opted out‟ of the LCPD ...................................................... 15 Table 4: UK import infrastructure as of Q1 2010 – existing and under construction ............... 17 Table 5: UK import infrastructure: proposed ............................................................................... 18 Table 6: Traded and physical volumes at European hubs ............................................................ 19 Table 7: Main UK-based participants in the British gas market ................................................. 20 Table 8: European participants in the NBP and the brokers ....................................................... 21 Table
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