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Price Forecasts in the European Natural Gas Markets

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Price Forecasts in the European Natural Gas Markets UNIVERSITY OF ST.GALLEN Graduate School of Business, Economics, Law and Social Sciences PRICE FORECASTS IN THE EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS MARKETS Master’s Thesis Referee Prof. Dr. Karl Frauendorfer Co-Referee Prof. Dr. Rolf Wüstenhagen 20. February 2012 Submitted by Claudia Fabini ABSTRACT This master’s thesis investigates the volatility dynamics of the European natural gas market in a recessive economic environment, namely for the period from October 2008 until January 2012. Three gas market areas and their respective trading hub are considered: the National Balancing Point (NBP) in Britain, Zeebrugge in Belgium, and the Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands. This thesis provides background information about the global and European natural gas market including its crucial interactions between gas, oil, electricity and CO2 markets in Europe. The analysis of the daily spot prices and returns from the three European trading hubs provide useful information on the statistical properties and on the events that affected natural gas prices during the recession and slow recovery of the European economy. The conditional variance and covariances of the returns are estimated using five different models. For the univariate case the symmetric GARCH(1,1), two asymmetric extensions of the GARCH, i.e. EGARCH(1,1) and TGARCH(1,1) are employed. For the multivariate covariance analysis the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and the diagonal BEKK variance specification are estimated. All the models imply a very strong persistency in the volatility process of natural gas returns for the three markets. The volatility is found to react more to unexpected negative returns than to positive ones. A positive correlation among the volatilities of the three markets is revealed, exhibiting the highest value for the market pair of Zeebrugge and TTF. There is evidence that the present volatility of NBP returns is dependent on the volatility of the previous day and one month before. Finally, during the period of negative growth rates of the European economy (2008 – Q1 2010), natural gas returns are more volatile than in the period of the slow economic recovery (Q2 2010 – January 2012), suggesting two different volatility regimes for the sample period. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 1 Natural Gas Markets ............................................................................................................................................ 3 1.1 Global Energy Statistics ............................................................................................................................. 3 1.1.1 Primary Energy Consumption .......................................................................................................... 3 1.1.2 Worldwide natural gas demand and supply .................................................................................... 5 1.1.3 Trade Movements ............................................................................................................................. 6 1.2 Natural Gas in Europe ................................................................................................................................ 8 1.2.1 Liberalization: a new landscape of European gas utilities .............................................................. 8 1.2.2 Demand behavior in Europe in the crisis’ aftermath ...................................................................... 9 1.2.3 Supply .............................................................................................................................................. 10 1.2.4 Energy Security Challenges ........................................................................................................... 11 2 Natural gas trading and dependencies ............................................................................................................... 13 2.1 Trading Hubs ............................................................................................................................................ 13 2.1.1 Definition and role .......................................................................................................................... 13 2.1.2 Trading locations ............................................................................................................................. 14 2.1.3 Natural gas exchanges in Europe ................................................................................................... 17 2.1.4 Convergence of Prices on the European Continent ...................................................................... 19 2.2 Natural gas market dependencies ............................................................................................................ 22 2.2.1 Cross-regional linkage of natural gas markets .............................................................................. 22 2.2.2 Natural gas and its relationship to other energy commodities ..................................................... 23 2.2.3 Carbon prices and their determinants............................................................................................. 25 3 Descriptive analysis of natural gas spot prices ................................................................................................. 28 3.1 The Data .................................................................................................................................................... 28 3.2 Analysis of day-ahead natural gas spot prices ........................................................................................ 30 3.3 Stylized facts of natural gas spot returns ................................................................................................. 35 4 Conditional Volatility Models ........................................................................................................................... 39 4.1 The GARCH process ................................................................................................................................ 39 4.1.1 The general GARCH(p,q) process .................................................................................................. 39 4.1.2 The GARCH(1,1) ............................................................................................................................ 43 4.2 Asymmetric GARCH processes .............................................................................................................. 45 4.2.1 Threshold GARCH model .............................................................................................................. 45 4.2.2 Exponential GARCH model ........................................................................................................... 46 4.3 Multivariate GARCH processes .............................................................................................................. 47 4.3.1 Extension of the notion of GARCH process to the multivariate case .......................................... 47 4.3.2 The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) model ................................................................... 49 4.3.3 The Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model .................................................................. 50 4.3.4 The BEKK model ............................................................................................................................ 51 5 Modeling Volatility for European natural gas prices ....................................................................................... 53 5.1 Literature Review ..................................................................................................................................... 53 5.2 Econometric approach and methodology ............................................................................................... 56 5.3 Model Building ......................................................................................................................................... 57 5.3.1 Stationarity ....................................................................................................................................... 57 iii 5.3.2 ARMA(r,s) model for the conditional mean .................................................................................. 58 5.4 Univariate volatility model ...................................................................................................................... 64 5.4.1 GARCH estimation of daily spot returns ....................................................................................... 64 5.4.2 Asymmetric GARCH estimation .................................................................................................... 68 5.4.3 Model comparison........................................................................................................................... 70 5.4.4 Limitations and further research ..................................................................................................... 73 5.5 Multivariate volatility model ................................................................................................................... 74 5.5.1 Modeling the conditional mean ...................................................................................................... 74 5.5.2 Multivariate GARCH estimation
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