Continental European Gas Hubs: Are They Fit for Purpose?
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Continental European Gas Hubs: Are they fit for purpose? Patrick Heather NG 63 June 2012 The contents of this paper are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members. Copyright © 2012 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 978-1-907555-51-0 ii Preface In 2010 Patrick Heather published his paper ‘The Evolution and Functioning of the Traded Gas Market in Britain’ which described the genesis and development of Britain’s traded gas market for which the political and financial imperatives of the early 1980’s, as much as the desire to create a competitive market, were a key factor. In Continental Europe both the drivers for change and the challenges to be overcome have been markedly different. Nevertheless the combination of the desire at an EU policy level to encourage competition through an evolving regulatory framework, the catalyst of the economic recession in creating a preference for hub based price formation mechanisms and, not to be understated, the sea-change in the acceptance of trading as being central in the procurement and risk management of natural gas portfolios have all contributed to an astonishing development in European gas hubs over the past few years. Based on extensive research and discussion with the key actors intimately involved, the paper provides deep insights into the characteristics of the individual hubs, the reasons behind their particular evolutionary path and the prospects for their further development. These are discussed in qualitative terms but also through a quantitative assessment of churn rate and bid-offer spread indices. With well discussed justification the paper categorises the European hubs as ‘Trading Hubs’ (NBP and TTF), ‘Transit Hubs’ (ZEE and CEGH) and ‘Transition Hubs’ (GPL, NCG, PEGs and PSV); a framework which assists the reader in better understanding the current and future role of each. The paper provides a comprehensive and timely review of gas market developments against the backdrop of the on-going transition from long term oil-indexed contracts to hub based contracts. In anticipation of this transition reaching its logical conclusion, the question in the paper’s title i.e. “are the European gas hubs fit for purpose?” relates to the ability of the hubs to provide a reliable basis for hub-based pricing in long term contracts. After studying the development in trading liquidity and the close correlation of prices between the hubs, the answer from this paper is an emphatic ‘yes’ although the exact roles of the individual hubs will probably continue to differ. Howard V Rogers iii Acknowledgements It would not have been possible to research and write this paper without the considerable help and guidance from many individuals and organisations. I have received much encouragement and support from my colleagues at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and I extend my particular thanks in this respect to Jonathan Stern who helped put my ideas into perspective. I must also thank the British and Dutch TSOs for their invaluable help and assistance throughout this project (Peter Parsons, Gary Dolphin and John Cummins at National Grid Gas; Sybren de Jong and Bert Hovens at Gas Transport Services). I also visited during the course of my research various TSOs and regulators in all of the North West European countries, who provided me with data and valuable explanations of how their respective gas systems operate and their plans for future development. Finally, I could not have evaluated the whole picture without the input on trading from ICIS-Heren, LEBA, and the Exchanges: APX-Endex, CEGH, ICE and Powernext. iv Contents 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 2. Contextual background ................................................................................................... 1 2.1 Findings from the 2010 paper on the traded gas market in Britain ................................. 1 2.2 Questions posed regarding European gas trading and the debate about market pricing . 3 3. Continental European national gas hubs: status and stages of development ............. 4 3.1 The “Trading Hubs”: NBP and TTF ................................................................................ 5 3.1.1 The National Balancing Point (1996) ....................................................................... 5 3.1.2 The Title Transfer Facility (2003) ............................................................................. 7 3.2 The “Transit Hubs”: ZEE and CEGH ............................................................................ 11 3.2.1 The Zeebrugge hub (2000) ...................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 The Central European Gas Hub (2005) .................................................................. 14 3.3 The “Transition Hubs”: GPL, NCG, PEGs and PSV ..................................................... 16 3.3.1 The Gaspool Balancing Services hub (2009) .......................................................... 17 3.3.2 NetConnect Germany (2009) .................................................................................. 17 3.3.3 The Points d’Echange de Gaz (2004) ..................................................................... 18 3.3.4 The Punto di Scambio Virtuale (2003) ................................................................... 20 4. A change in attitude towards trading ........................................................................... 21 4.1 Legislation and Regulation ............................................................................................ 22 4.2 Sellers and buyers .......................................................................................................... 25 4.3 Trading and Exchanges .................................................................................................. 30 5. The future of the gas hubs in a Market Priced Europe .............................................. 37 5.1 Contracts ........................................................................................................................ 37 5.2 Balancing and marginal volumes ................................................................................... 38 5.3 Benchmarks in a European network of market priced gas ............................................ 40 6. From the 2010s to the 2020s and beyond ......................................................................... 42 6.1 Commercial prospects for the European gas market ..................................................... 42 7. Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................... 44 Appendices .............................................................................................................................. 47 A. Map of the Austrian high pressure/transit pipelines .......................................... 47 B. Map of the Austrian gas grids, divided into 3 Control Areas............................. 47 C. Diagram of the Zeebrugge Hub ......................................................................... 48 D. Map of the Belgian gas grid ............................................................................... 48 E. Map of the Dutch gas grid ................................................................................. 49 F. Map of the Gasunie GTS and GUD networks ................................................... 49 v G. Map of the French gas grid ................................................................................ 50 H. Map of the French PEGs .................................................................................... 50 I. Map of the German Gaspool and NCG gas grids .............................................. 51 J. Map of the Italian gas grid ................................................................................. 52 K. Memberships of TTF gas at APX-Endex at the end of 2011 ............................. 53 L. Memberships of Zeebrugge Hub at the end of 2011 .......................................... 53 M. CEGH Exchange – the 3 ‘layers’ of trading at Baumgarten .............................. 54 N. Calculation of the physical demand figures for Table 3 .................................... 54 O. ICIS-Heren Tradability Index Q1-2012 ............................................................. 55 P. European shale gas technically recoverable resources ...................................... 55 Q. Convergence of energy intensities and fuel shares to 2030 ............................... 56 Glossary .................................................................................................................................. 57 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................... 69 Figures Figure 1: European gas hubs and gas exchanges ........................................................................ 4 Figure 2: ICE share of