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Dangerous Interference with the Climate System: Implications of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for Article 2 of the Climate Convention

Greenpeace Briefing Paper

Sixth Session (Part Two) of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on

16-27 July, 2001 Bonn, Germany

Greenpeace International

1 2 Dangerous Interference with the Climate System: Implications of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for Article 2 of the Climate Convention)

Executive Summary ...... 4 Introduction...... 4 Science Assessment...... 5 Impacts Assessment ...... 6 Mitigation Assessment ...... 6 Introduction...... 10 Introduction...... 10 Background: The IPCC...... 10 Working Group I Findings ...... 11 Warming of the last 50 years is mostly due to human activities, principally burning of fossil fuels...... 11 Risks of warming are increasing and we are already seeing the first signs of this...... 11 Unless emissions are reduced, there is a major risk that the warming expected during the next five decades would trigger meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet...... 12 Risk of large positive feedbacks from the response of the to climate which would significantly enhance climate change...... 13 Main Conclusions...... 13 Working Group II Findings...... 14 Impacts of upper temperature projections not examined...... 14 Threats to most natural and many human systems...... 14 Changes already underway ...... 14 Threats from extreme whether events...... 15 Potential for Large Scale and Irreversible Impacts ...... 15 Developing Countries most at risk...... 16 More people projected to be harmed than benefited even for small warming ...... 17 Extensive Regional Impacts Identified...... 17 Africa ...... 17 Asia ...... 17 and New Zealand ...... 18 Europe ...... 19 Latin America...... 19 North America...... 20 Polar Regions ...... 21 Small Island States ...... 21 Main Conclusions...... 22 Working Group III Findings ...... 23 23Relatively low cost of emission reductions...... 23 Stabilization of CO2 in the atmosphere at or below 450 ppmv is possible...... 23 Energy Investments need to be changed if stabilization is to be possible...... 24 Current reserves if released to the atmosphere would lead to very high atmospheric CO2 levels...... 24 Lower emissions and stabilization of CO2 concentration require different energy developments.24 Critical comments on the report ...... 27 Economic modeling and determination of costs insufficient ...... 27 Unequal treatment of technologies...... 28 Less certain future for ...... 28 The issue of sinks...... 29 Major Conclusions ...... 30

3 Executive Summary It is clear that US energy policy at present is in clear violation of this Introduction objective as it would not lead to or contribute to global efforts at COP6 (Part Two) is to receive the stabilization of CO2 at any level. findings the three working group Furthermore, US energy policy is on reports of the IPCC Third track to contribute substantially to Assessment Report at a time when triggering the meltdown of the the very principle of international Greenland ice sheet which could action on climate change is being begin as a result of a local warming of some 3oC (or a global mean challenged by the USA. Yet the o report shows more and warming of 1-3 C). This could strongly than ever before that the happen within the next 3-5 decades scale of the risks posed by climate and if sustained would lead to a 3 change are enormous and that we are metre sea level rise over the next already seeing the first signs of the millennium. impacts of climate change. It has also found that international, co- At the end of this Executive ordinated action is critical to the Summary we have summarized efforts to reduce emissions. many of the impacts which the IPCC Third Assessment Report has Perhaps of most importance to the identified by level of future current context of the US rejection projected warming. We would of the and the US invite any delegates to look at this Administrations fossil fuel intensive table and tell us what level of warming is dangerous. We have a National Energy Plan are the o findings of IPCC Working Group III feeling that many will find even 1 C dangerous and that nearly all will on mitigations options. This has o found that the choice of energy find much to fear in a 1-2 C investments made over the coming warming. Perhaps the most chilling decade will determine whether and part of this table is what is not there: warming of more than a few degrees at what level atmospheric CO2 levels can be stabilized. If the choice is have not been examined by the made towards fossil fuel intensive impacts community. Yet the IPCC is projecting a warming range of 1.4- technologies then atmospheric o stabilization may not be possible. 5.8 C by 2100. This range of temperature increases does not Article 2 of the UNFCCC to which include the effect of climate the USA (and its allies in the feedbacks on the terrestrial rejection of the Kyoto Protocol) such biosphere. Climate induced forest as Australia are Parties, requires that dieback and release of from warming soils could add, according atmospheric CO2 levels be stabilized at a level and within a timeframe that to the IPCC WG I report nearly 300 prevents dangerous climate change. ppmv CO2 to the atmosphere above

4 the 970 ppmv which would be greenhouse gas achieved from the most fossil fuel concentrations. … intensive scenarios (such as the US National Energy Plan). This would “[I]t is very likely that the add a few degrees to the high end of 20th century warming has the warming range. contributed significantly to the observed sea level rise… Interestingly, the high end of the warming range comes from future “About three quarters of the emissions scenarios premised on anthropogenic emissions of fossil fuel intensive energy CO2 to the atmosphere development patterns, whose during the past 20 years are archetypal form is to be found in the due to fossil fuel burning”. US National Energy Plan. Not only has the IPCC considerably Science Assessment strengthened its opinion that the recent warming is mostly due to The IPCC’s Third Assessment human activities, it links this Report comes to much stronger and increase principally to the burning of clearer conclusions on the science fossil fuels. and impacts of climate change, as well as on the economics of The IPCC has projected a higher rate combating climate change than of temperature increase than in the either of it’s two predecessors in Second Assessment Report: 1990 and 1995. The TAR depicts an increasingly dramatic situation that “The anticipated increase in humanity and the ’s natural temperature over the next ecosystems are facing due to climate century has increased from a change predictions, unless actions to range of 1 – 3.5° C in the mitigate climate change are adopted IPCC’s Second Assessment and successfully implemented Report, to 1.4 – 5.8°C;” Key findings of IPCC Working Group I on the scientific aspects of This report has also found that: the climate system and climate change are: “The projected rate of warming is much larger than There is new and stronger the observed changes during evidence that most of the the 20th century and is very observed warming over the likely without precedent last 50 years is attributable during at least the last to human activities. … 10,000 years…”

“[M]ost of the observed The report finds that there is a risk of warming over the last 50 large positive feedbacks from the years is likely to have been response of the biosphere to climate due to the increase in which would significantly enhance climate change. Human induced climate

5 change could cause forest dieback over much of the continent; and in releasing huge volumes of carbon to the coastal areas, the risk of flooding, atmosphere, substantially increasing CO2 erosion and wetland loss will increase concentrations in the coming century. substantially;

Impacts Assessment • Will have the greatest impacts on those least able to protect themselves IPCC Working Group II addresses the from rising sea levels, increase in vulnerability of socio-economic and disease and decrease in agricultural natural systems to climate change, production in the developing negative and positive consequences of countries in Africa and Asia. At all climate change, and options for adapting. scales of climate change, developing This working group has found that countries will suffer the most. More warming in the last few decades is people will be harmed than benefited, already having an effect on natural even for small amounts of warming. systems: Mitigation Assessment “Thus, from the collective evidence there is high confidence IPCC Working Group III has found that that recent regional changes in the cost of fulfilling the Kyoto temperature have had discernible commitments and further reducing impacts on many physical and emissions are relatively low. biological systems" The report finds that it is possible to Some of the most immediate threats stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations in identified by the IPCC come from the atmosphere at well below doubling of extreme weather events. The greatest CO2 above pre-industrial levels (at or dangers-those that would result in global below 450 ppmv). This is based on a catastrophe-are posed by the potential for conservative assessment with no new large scale and irreversible impacts. technological breakthroughs. However, it finds that government policies to put in Among Working Group II’s main place energy efficient technologies and to conclusions are that projected human- introduce more rapidly low, or no-carbon induced climate change: energy supply technologies are needed if this is to be achieved. Stabilization of • Risks large scale and irreversible CO2 will require, in addition to emission impacts, such as the melting of the reduction action in the developed Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, countries, technology transfer to the slowing down or shutting down of developing countries. the Gulf Stream, and massive releases of greenhouse gases from melting Working Group III warns that the choice permafrost and dying forests; of energy investments in the future will determine whether or not, and at what • Will have severe impacts on a level and cost CO2 concentrations can be regional level. For instance, in stabilized. At present the report finds that Europe, river flooding will increase investment is directed towards

6 discovering and developing more Finally, the report confirms the finding of conventional and unconventional fossil the 1995 IPCC report that early action to resources. reduce emissions is needed. The report notes that a gradual transition in the near The limited scale of conventional oil and term of the world energy system towards gas resources means there will have to be lower carbon emissions will minimize the a change in the mixture of fossil fuels costs arising from the premature used in the next century. In replacing oil retirement of capital stock (eg closing and gas there is a choice between either down fired power stations). unconventional fossil fuels (tar sands, oil shales, methane hydrates or using coal to However, more rapid short term action to make liquid fuels) or non-fossil reduce emissions would decrease the risk alternatives. The carbon contained in of human and environmental damages unconventional oil and gas deposits and from climate change and stimulate the coal contain more than enough carbon, deployment of low carbon technologies which if released to the atmosphere, and help to avoid locking in carbon would increase CO2 to very high levels. intensive technologies.

Figure 5(d) from IPCC WGI Summary for Policy Makers

7 Summary of Impacts by Temperature Band

Human Health Impacts: seed dispersal, pollination, availability of food, etc. Expected temperature increases will strain health services currently struggling to cope with Extinction of some critically endangered and infectious diseases and infrastructure deficiencies. . Species immediately threatened by rising sea levels and shrinking Increase of temperature up to 2ºC: ranges include the Bengal tiger (Ganges delta), the mountain gorilla (Central Africa), the Direct - more heat-related deaths especially spectacled bear (Andes mountains), among vulnerable populations; resplendent Quetzal (Central America).

Indirect - more illness and death resulting from Increase of temperature between 1-2ºC: increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Wildfires and insect infestations will disrupt relationships in complex ecosystems already Increased risks to human , risk of infectious undergoing stress from direct effects of heat. disease epidemics, and many other health risks Increased disturbances of ecosystems by fire where floods, droughts or storms increase in and insect pests- frequency and/or intensity. Increased heat related deaths and illness, affecting particularly events will increase in the elderly, sick, and those without access to air frequency and duration, leading to destruction of conditioning brain corals and loss of related reef ecosystems.

Loss of up to 10% of coastal wetlands globally Increase of temperature between 2-3ºC: from sea level rise will eliminate habitat of major migratory bird populations. Indirect - greater exposure to infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue. Increases of temperature between 2-3ºC: Expansion of the areas of potential transmission of malaria and dengue fever with roughly 300 Reduction of ice cover during summer will million more people at risk of malaria. eliminate habitat of seals, walruses, and polar bears. (Decrease in cold weather-related deaths will occur in counties that are already more resilient Some unique hotspots already to the impacts of climate change.) pressed to latitude or altitude limits will be lost, such South Africa’s Cape Fynbos region and Costa Rica’s cloud forests. Ecosystem Impacts:

Minimal temperature increases are already Increases of temperature between 3-4ºC: destroying sensitive ecosystems while species die off is underway—a portent for the next few Elimination of tropical glaciers and significant decades. reduction in ice cap and temperate glacier volume will alter hydrology and dependent Increase of temperature up to 1ºC: ecosystems.

Shrinking ice and snow cover disrupts Coral death from sea temperature increases hydroelectric capacity and systems dependent lasting for 6 months or more will eliminate whole on spring thaw timing. reef ecosystems.

Changes in growing seasons, shifts in Other ecosystems under threat include atolls, population ranges, and premature reproduction mangroves, boreal and tropical forests, alpine in plants, insects, and birds threaten the integrity meadows, prairie wetlands, and remnant native of complex systems dependent on timing of grasslands.

8 Summary of Impacts by Temperature Band

Agricultural Impacts: such as the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and arid parts of central and south Asia affecting half Nations, regions, and communities already a billion people. struggling to feed themselves will face further difficulties due to the effects of higher Increases of temperature between 2-3ºC: temperatures, altered hydrology, and extreme weather events on agriculture. More flood damage will result from intense storms, especially in areas affected by Increase of temperature between 1-2ºC: , wildfires, insect infestations, and ecosystem degradation. Heat waves will damage crops ( unable to form grains, fruit unable to set) and livestock will Areas of increasing drought will suffer from suffer from heat stress (reductions of milk decreases in water quantity and quality. production and conception difficulties in dairy cows). Market Impacts: Decreased cereal crop yields in tropical and subtropical regions would reverse agricultural The effects of climate change will have market self-sufficiency progress in many developing sector effects by changing the abundance, quality, nations. and prices of food, fibre, water, and other goods and services. Increased cereal crop yields in many mid- and high latitude regions providing adaptation Less than 1ºC warming: opportunities are available and water stress does not outweigh CO2 fertilization effect. Net negative market sector impacts in developing countries and net market sector Increases of temperature between 2-3ºC: gains in developed countries. Applying more weight to impacts on poor countries indicates Food prices will increase throughout the global negative aggregate impacts globally. economy. Increase of temperature between 1-2ºC: Crop yields will drop in regions affected by more drought conditions. Many developing countries will suffer from net market losses in important sectors. General decrease in cereal crop yields extend to mid-latitude, temperate regions. Energy demands for air conditioning will increase.

Water Resource Impacts: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will result in increased insurance The effects of climate changes on , costs and decreased insurance availability water quality, and the frequency and intensity of (coastal areas, floodplains). floods and droughts, will intensify demands on water and flood management. Increases of temperature between 2-3ºC:

Increase of temperature between 1-2ºC: Most regions will suffer net market losses in important sectors that will affect global Decreased water supply will be available in aggregates. regions already suffering from water scarcity

9 Introduction The IPCC has three working groups: • This Greenpeace International Working Group I assesses briefing paper is designed to present the scientific aspects of the the salient points emerging from the climate system and climate recently completed Third change. Assessment Report (TAR) of the • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Working Group II addresses Change (IPCC). the vulnerability of socio- economic and natural The TAR contains a very large systems to climate change, amount of information that has been negative and positive interpreted and compiled into consequences of climate Summaries for Policymakers and change, and options for Technical Summaries that are adapting to it. available at the IPCC website: • http://www.ipcc.ch. This document Working Group III assesses represents a selective summary of options for limiting greenhouse the WG I, II, and III Summary for gas emissions and otherwise Policy Makers. Items in quotation mitigating climate change (not the marks are taken from the impacts and of climate change). Summary(s) for Policy Makers. The IPCC completed its First Assessment Report in 1990. This Background: The IPCC report played an important role in establishing the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a UN Recognizing the problem of Framework Convention on Climate potential global climate change, the Change (UNFCCC) by the UN World Meteorological Organization General Assembly. The UNFCCC (WMO) and the United Nations was adopted in 1992 and entered Environment Programme (UNEP) into force in 1994. It provides the established the Intergovernmental overall policy framework for Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in addressing the climate change issue. 1988. It is open to all members of the UNEP and WMO. The role of The IPCC continues to provide the IPCC is to assess the scientific, scientific, technical and socio- technical and socio-economic economic advice to the world information relevant for the community. In particular, it advises understanding of the risk of human- the 170-plus Parties to the UNFCCC induced climate change. It does not through its periodic assessment carry out new nor does it reports on the state of knowledge of monitor climate related data. It bases causes of climate change, its its assessment mainly on published potential impacts and options for and peer reviewed scientific response strategies. Its Second technical literature.

10 Assessment Report, Climate Change 1995, provided key input to the • “…[I]t is very likely that the negotiations, which lead to the 20th century warming has adoption of the Kyoto Protocol to contributed significantly to the UNFCCC in 1997. the observed sea level rise…” (10 –20 cm over the last The most recent Third Assessment century). Report is a comprehensive and up- to-date assessment of the policy- • “About three quarters of the relevant scientific, technical, and anthropogenic emissions of socio-economic dimensions of CO2 to the atmosphere during climate change. It concentrates on the past 20 years are due to new findings since 1995, pays fossil fuel burning”. greater attention to the regional (in addition to the global) scale, and includes non-English literature to the Risks of warming are increasing and extent possible. we are already seeing the first signs of this.

• “Globally it is very likely that Working Group I Findings the were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest In January 2001 government year in the instrumental representatives met in Shanghai to record since 1861.” negotiate and approve the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC • “The anticipated increase in Working Group I contribution to the temperature over the next Third Assessment Report on Climate century has increased from a Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. range of 1 – 3.5° C in the IPCC’s Second Assessment Warming of the last 50 years is mostly Report, to 1.4 – 5.8°C; due to human activities, principally burning of fossil fuels. • “The projected rate of warming is much larger than “There is new and stronger the observed changes during evidence that most of the the 20th century and is very observed warming over the last likely without precedent 50 years is attributable to human during at least the last 10,000 activities”. years…”;

• “…[M]ost of the observed • There is very likely to be an warming over the last 50 increase in extreme weather years is likely to have been events such as heat waves, due to the increase in increased precipitation greenhouse gas leading to floods, and higher concentrations”.

11 minimum temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations fewer cold days; will cause an increase of Asian summer monsoon • There is likely to be an precipitation variability”; increase in the risk of drought in the mid-latitudes interiors • Climate change will persist of continents; for many centuries, due to the long life of greenhouse gases • There is likely to be an in the atmosphere however increase in some areas in the “…the lower the level at peak wind and precipitation which CO2 concentrations are intensities of tropical stabilised, the smaller the total cyclones; temperature change”.

• 20th century trends of increasing temperature, sea- Unless emissions are reduced, there is a level rise, and increased major risk that the warming expected precipitation will continue during the next five decades would and intensify in the 21st trigger meltdown of the Greenland ice century unless emissions are sheet. reduced; • “Ice sheets will continue to • The anticipated range of react to climate warming and global sea level rise over the contribute to sea level rise for next century is now between 9 thousands of years after and 88 cm, compared to 13-94 climate has been stabilised.” centimeters in the IPCC’s Second Assessment Report; • Warming around Greenland is likely to be from 1-3 times the • Glaciers and polar ice will global average warming, continue to melt and there which as noted above is will be a continued decrease projected to be in the range in Northern Hemisphere snow 1.4-5.8ºC, hence a 3ºC and ice cover; warming around Greenland appears likely within the next • “[G]lobal warming is likely to century and probably within lead to greater extremes of the next 50 years unless drying and heavy rainfall and action is taken to reduce increase rainfall and increase emissions. the risk of droughts and floods that occur with El Nino • Ice sheet models project that a events in many different local warming of larger than regions.” 3°C, if sustained for millennia, would lead to • “It is likely that warming virtually a complete melting associated with increasing of the Greenland ice sheet

12 with a resulting sea level rise of about 7 metres. Decoding these paragraphs, the clear message is that there is a significant • “Current ice dynamic models risk that feedbacks from the suggest that the West biosphere (forest decline, increased Antarctic Ice Sheet could fires and losses of carbon from contribute up to 3 meters to warming soils caused by climate sea level rise over the next change) could enhance CO2 1000 years…” concentrations by nearly 300 ppmv CO2 by 2100. In other words the magnitude of the potential positive Risk of large positive feedbacks from feedback is equivalent, in CO2 the response of the biosphere to concentration terms, to a doubling of climate which would significantly CO2 above pre-industrial levels. enhance climate change. Main Conclusions The risk of large positive feedbacks from the biosphere is presented in • The warming of last 50 the Summary for Policy Makers in years is mostly due to the following way: human activities, principally the burning of • “As the CO2 concentration of the fossil fuels. atmosphere increases, ocean and land will take up a decreasing • The risks of warming are fraction of anthropogenic CO2 increasing and we are emissions. The net effect of land already seeing the first and ocean climate feedbacks as signs of this. indicated by models is to further increase projected atmospheric • One of the major risks CO2 concentrations, by reducing identified is that warming both the ocean and land uptake of in the next five decades CO2 . By 2100, carbon cycle could be large enough to models project atmospheric CO 2 trigger meltdown of concentrations of 540 to 970 ppm Greenland ice sheet, unless for the illustrative SRES scenarios emissions are reduced. (90 to 250% above the concentration of 280 ppm in the • There is a high risk of more year 1750)... Uncertainties, extreme events including especially about the magnitude of flooding, drought and more the climate feedback from the intense storms. terrestrial biosphere, cause a variation of about 10 to 30% • Positive feedbacks from the around each scenario. The total impacts of climate change range is 490 to 1260 ppm (75 to on forests could 350% above the 1750 substantially accelerate the concentration).” warming.

13 alpine ecosystems, prairie wetlands, native grasslands, and biodiversity “hotspots”. Climate change will Working Group II Findings increase existing risks of species extinction and biodiversity loss in In February 2001 government ecosystems at every latitude and in representatives met in Geneva to each region. The level of damage negotiate and approve the Summary will increase with the magnitude and for Policymakers of the IPCC rate of global warming. Working Group II of the Third Assessment Report on Climate Threats to human systems, beyond Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, the loss of natural ecosystems, and Vulnerability. The report derive from threats to water emphasized the threats to and resources, agriculture, forestry, society posed by climate change. health, settlements, energy, industry, and financial services. Vulnerability of particular human populations is Impacts of upper temperature determined by degree of the nature projections not examined of the threat, sensitivity and ability to adapt--characteristics that depend on geographic location and As noted above the WG1 TAR development level of social, projects to cause average global economic and environmental temperatures to warm 1.4 to 5.8ºC conditions. Tens of millions of by 2100 relative to the 1990 people living in low lying coastal temperature average, however the areas face the risk of having to move Working Group II assessment does due to flooding. not investigate the upper end of this temperature range. The available literature on climate impacts that in Changes already underway general do not investigate the impacts associated with the upper Observed 20th century climate range of increased average changes have already affected temperatures. Therefore, impacts physical systems. Examples include from the higher range of warming shrinkage of glaciers, thawing of estimates are not represented in this permafrost, later freezing and earlier report. breakup of ice on rivers and lakes. Biological systems also appear to be responding through the lengthening Threats to most natural and many of growing seasons, animal range human systems shifts to higher altitudes and latitudes, declines of some animal The report finds that climate change populations, and earlier tree presents are a threat to most natural flowering, insect emergence, and systems. Those natural systems bird egg laying. threatened include glaciers, coral reefs, mangroves, arctic ecosystems,

14 • “there is emerging evidence while reducing losses due to that some social and cold. economic systems have been effected by the recent • Increased frequency of high increasing frequency of floods intensity rainfall will increase and droughts in some areas.” flood (and flash flood) risk, with consequent property • “Thus, from the collective damage, soil erosion, flushed evidence there is high pollutants, health threats, and confidence that recent deaths. regional changes in temperature have had • More frequent drought in discernible impacts on many mid-latitude continental physical and biological interiors will increase systems". agricultural losses, threaten terrestrial and aquatic Associations between these physical ecosystems, reduce quality and biological phenomena and and availability of water with changes in regional climate have consequent health effects, and been documented in aquatic, promote land subsidence. terrestrial, and marine environments on all continents. • Increased intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones will threaten property, coastal Threats from extreme whether events stability, ecosystems, health, and life. While a change in average temperatures or precipitation can • Any increase in intensity and have significant impacts, the changes frequency of extreme climate in extremes are most immediate and events will increase demands have great negative effects. The on already overburdened report outlines the following threats: public and private financial mechanisms to cover weather • Increased frequency of heat related losses. waves will increase crop and livestock losses, frequency of Potential for Large Scale and wildfires, wildlife mortality, Irreversible Impacts energy demand for cooling, and human deaths and illness The most troubling research from heat stress and air considers the possibility of pollution. irreversible, large scale, and abrupt effects triggered by human induced • Decreased frequency of cold climate change. The report finds that waves and fewer frost days that greenhouse gas increases over will extend the range of some the next century could trigger large pests and disease vectors scale and irreversible impacts.

15 These events may not be likely to magnitude and duration of climate occur in the next century but there is change. a significant likelihood that they could be triggered by human Developing Countries most at risk activities in the next 100 years. Amongst these risks are: The report finds that developing countries are most at risk from • The slowing down or stopping climate change. Global increases in of the North Atlantic’s temperature would produce net thermohaline circulation economic losses in many developing which could plunge Europe countries for all magnitudes of into the climate regime warming and these losses would be experienced by Labrador. greater the higher the warming. Those with the least resources have • Melting of the Greenland and the least ability to adapt, and will be West Antarctic Ice Sheets, most damaged by climate change. which could lead to up to 3 Increase in global mean metres of sea level rise each temperatures will produce net over the next 1000 years and economic losses in many developing “submerge many small countries for all magnitudes of islands and inundate extensive warming, and the condition is most coastal areas.” extreme among the poorest people in these countries • *Acceleration of global warming caused by releases • “The effects of climate of carbon to the atmosphere change are expected to be from forest disturbance which greatest in developing is itself caused by climate countries in terms of loss of change. life and relative effects on investment and the economy. • Releases of terrestrial carbon For example, the relative caused by the melting percentage damages to GDP permafrost and releases of from climate extremes have methane, a powerful been substantially greater in greenhouse gas, from the developing countries than in decomposition of hydrates developed countries.” under coastal sediments on the sea bed “would further • “The projected distribution of increase greenhouse gas economic impacts is such that concentrations and amplify it would increase the disparity climate change”. in well-being between developed countries and The timing of the triggering of these developing countries, with events are uncertain but their disparity growing for higher likelihood increases with the rate, projected temperature increases.”

16 particularly in small food- • “…[I]ncreases in global mean importing countries.” temperatures would produce net economic losses in many In a region already facing the effects developing countries for all of AIDS and malnutrition, climate magnitudes of warming change will foster the expansion of a studied, and losses would be host of infectious diseases. greater in magnitude the higher the level of warming. “Extension of ranges of infectious disease vectors would adversely • “In contrast an increase in affect human health in Africa.” global mean temperature of up to a few degrees C would Floods, famine, and refugee produce a mixture of migrations are very likely as climate economic gains and losses in change tips the balance in developed countries, with overburdened regions of the African economic losses for larger continent. temperature increases.” “Increases in droughts, floods, and other extreme events would More people projected to be harmed add to stresses on water than benefited even for small warming resources, , human health, and infrastructures, and • “More people are projected to would constrain development in be harmed than benefited by Africa.” climate change, even for global mean temperature As climate change grips Africa and increases of less than a few vital ecosystems wither, some of the degrees" richest biodiversity on Earth is likely to disappear.

Extensive Regional Impacts “Significant extinctions of plant and animal species are projected Identified and would impact rural livelihoods, tourism, and genetic resources.” Africa

The impacts of climate change Asia threaten large populations of Africa already struggling for sustainable Climate change is already being development. experienced across the Asian continent. “Grain yields are projected to decrease for many scenarios, “Extreme events have increased diminishing food security, in temperate and tropical Asia,

17 including floods, droughts, forest The combined effects of accelerating fires, and tropical cyclones.” climate change and land-use pressures are fragmenting and likely Climate change is likely to bring to significantly damage Asian disruption and instability to millions ecosystems that comprise some of of people in Asia. the richest biodiversity on Earth.

“Decreases in agricultural • “Climate change would productivity and aquaculture due exacerbate threats to to thermal and water stress, sea biodiversity due to land-use level-rise, floods and droughts, and land-cover change and and tropical cyclones would population pressure in Asia. diminish food security in many Sea level rise would put countries of arid, tropical, and ecological security at risk, temperate Asia; agriculture would including mangroves and expand and increase in coral reefs.” productivity in northern areas. “Many species of mammals and In the most densely populated birds could be exterminated as a regions of the world, climate change result of the synergistic effects of is likely to intensify threats from climate change and habitat infectious disease. fragmentation.”

“Human health would be threatened by possible increased Australia and New Zealand exposure to vector- borne infectious diseases and heat stress Despite the hopes that climate in parts of Asia.” change will be a help for some crops in Australia and New Zealand, any Mega-cities and densely populated short-term gains for some crops in areas along the Pacific and Indian some regions are likely to be Ocean coastlines are caught between overwhelmed by other regional the threats of sea level rise and river losses and long term damage. flooding from increased upstream precipitation. “The net impact on some temperate crops of climate and “Sea level rise and an increase in CO2 changes may initially be intensity of tropical cyclones beneficial, but this balance is would displace tens of millions of expected to become negative for people in low-lying coastal areas some areas and crops with further of temperate and tropical Asia; climate change.” increased intensity of rainfall would increase flood risks in Droughts and fires will be even more temperate and tropical Asia”. common and water more valuable as great portions of Australia dry up.

18 “Water is likely to be a key issue vulnerable to accelerated invasion due to projected drying trends by weeds.” over much of the region and change to a more El Nino-like average state.” Europe

Threats from extreme events are Glaciers and distribution of likely to change the of many permafrost are sensitive indicators of Australians. climate change. In Europe they are both shrinking at an unprecedented “Increases in the intensity of rate. heavy rains and tropical cyclones, and region-specific changes in the “Half of alpine glaciers and large frequency of tropical cyclones, permafrost areas could disappear would alter the risks to life, by the end of the 21st century.” property, and ecosystems from flooding, storm surges, and wind Expected flood patterns will place damage.” large portions of Europe at high risk.

The unique biological evolutionary “River flood hazard will increase line that has evolved in Australia and across much of Europe; in coastal New Zealand over millions of years, areas, the risk of flooding, as well as some of the richest erosion, and wetland loss will biodiversity on Earth could be increase substantially with devastated by climate change. implications for human settlement, industry, tourism, “Some species with restricted agriculture, and coastal natural climatic niches and which are habitats.” unable to migrate due to fragmentation of the landscape, Many Alpine ecosystems are very soil differences, or topography likely to disappear, along with vast could become endangered or tracts of precious wildlife habitat. extinct. “Upward and northward shift of “Australian ecosystems that are biotic zones will take place. Loss particularly vulnerable to climate of important habitats (wetlands, change include coral reefs, arid tundra, isolated habitats) would and semi-arid habitats in threaten some species.” southwest and inland Australia and Australian alpine systems.” Latin America “Freshwater wetlands in coastal zones in both Australia and New Glaciers are shrinking in Latin Zealand are vulnerable, and some America also, where they supply the New Zealand ecosystems are water necessary for agriculture and energy production as well as residential and industrial use.

19 would expand poleward and to “Loss and retreat of glaciers higher elevations, and exposures would adversely impact runoff to diseases such as malaria, and water supply in areas where dengue fever, and cholera will glacier melt is an important water increase.” source.” In Latin America, valuable In parts of Latin America, there will ecosystem resources will disappear, be increasing frequency of damaging as already threatened biodiversity extreme events. hotspots get hotter.

“Floods and droughts would “The rate of biodiversity loss become more frequent with would increase.” floods increasing sediment loads and degrade water supply in some areas.” North America

In Central and equatorial America, Climate change is likely to destroy the devastation of tropical cyclones ecosystems that define the North could get worse. American wilderness.

“Increases in intensity of tropical “Unique natural ecosystems such cyclones would alter the risks to as prairie wetlands, alpine tundra, life, property, and ecosystems and cold water ecosystems will be from heavy rain, flooding, storm at risk and effective adaptation is surges, and wind damages. “ unlikely.”

Food security could become a Large expanses of the North serious problem for many countries American Atlantic coastal regions in Latin America. are very likely to be threatened.

“Yields of important crops are “Sea-level rise would result in projected to decrease in many enhanced coastal erosion, coastal locations in Latin America even flooding, loss of coastal wetlands, when the effects of CO2 are taken and increased risk from storm into account; subsistence farming surges, particularly in Florida and in some regions of Latin America much of the US Atlantic coast.” could be threatened.” Insurance companies and Latin American problems with government disaster relief agencies infectious diseases that thrive in a in North America are faced with warming world could be increasing demands from victims of exacerbated. weather events and are unprepared for projected threats. “The geographical distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases “Weather-related insured losses and public sector disaster relief

20 payments in North America have ecosystems cannot survive the been increasing; insurance sector expected rates of further warming. planning has not yet systematically included climate “Climate change in polar regions change information, so there is is expected to be among the potential for surprise.” largest and most rapid of any region on the Earth, and will As North America copes with threats cause major physical, ecological, from unusual weather, risk from sociological, and economic climate change induced health impacts especially in the Arctic, problems is likely to increase. Antarctic Peninsula, and Southern Ocean.” “Vector-borne diseases— including malaria, dengue fever, “Changes in climate that have and Lyme disease—may expand already taken place are their ranges in North America; manifested in the decrease in exacerbated air quality and heat extent and thickness of Arctic sea stress morbidity and mortality ice, permafrost thawing, coastal would occur socioeconomic erosion, changes in ice sheets and factors and public health ice shelves, and altered measures would play a large role distribution and abundance of in determining the incidence and species in the Polar regions.” extent of health effects.”

Small Island States Polar Regions The effects of sea level rise will be Rising temperatures in polar regions influencing, if not dominating, the are already causing problems for socioeconomic reality in many small traditional communities and island states from now on. priceless ecosystems. “The projected sea level rise of “Natural systems in polar regions 5mm per year for the next 100 are highly vulnerable to climate years will cause enhanced coastal change and current ecosystems erosion, loss of land and property, have low adaptive capacity; dislocation of people, increased technologically developed risk from storm surges, reduced communities are likely to adapt resilience of coastal ecosystems, readily to climate change but saltwater intrusions into some indigenous communities, in freshwater resources, and high which traditional lifestyles are resource costs to respond to and followed, have little capacity and adapt to these changes”. few options for adaptation.” Fresh water will become even more Polar regions are already warming at crucial to small islands with climate alarming rates and many of their change.

21 “Islands with very limited water supplies are highly vulnerable to The socioeconomic repercussions of the impacts of climate change on climate change threaten small the water balance. islands’ hopes of eco-tourism and . Current threats to the rich and unique coastal ecosystems of small “Tourism, an important source of islands are exacerbated by the income and foreign exchange for increasing rates of climate change. many islands, will face severe disruption from climate change “Coral reefs will be negatively and sea level rise.” affected by bleaching and by reduced calcification rates due to Main Conclusions higher carbon dioxide levels, mangrove, sea grass beds, other From the findings of the 2nd TAR coastal ecosystems and the working group Greenpeace comes to associated biodiversity would be the following main conclusions: adversely affected by rising temperatures and accelerated sea • Expected changes are level rise”. already underway. • Both natural and human The reef that support systems are under threat. populations on small island states are • Threats from extreme severely threatened by expected weather events are most weakening and damage to coastal immediate. ecosystems. • The greatest dangers are posed by the potential for “Declines in coastal ecosystems large scale and irreversible would negatively impact reef fish impacts. and threaten reef fisheries, those • Developing countries will who earn their livelihoods from suffer the most. reef fisheries, and those who rely • More people will be on the fisheries as a significant harmed than benefited, food source”. even for small amounts of warming. Agricultural limitations on small islands will be worsened by the precipitation variability and sea level rise resulting from climate change.

“Limited arable land and soil salinization makes agriculture of Small Island States, both for domestic food production and cash crop exports, highly vulnerable to climate change.”

22 Working Group III Findings net costs with at least half of this achievable at a profit (negative costs): In late February and early March 2001 government representatives met in Accra, “Half of these potential emissions Ghana to negotiate and approve the reductions may be achieved by 2020 Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC with direct benefits (energy saved) Working Group III contribution to the exceeding direct costs (net capital, Third Assessment Report on Climate operating, and maintenance costs), and Change 2001: Mitigation. The Report the other half at a net direct cost of up presents potential approaches to efficient to US$100/tCeq (at 1998 prices)”. and effective stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Government action and policies removing both subsidies to fossil fuel production and use and barriers to market debut of Relatively low cost of greenhouse gas emission reducing technologies are emission reductions needed to harvest these gains in a most successful way: The report notes that the progress on technologies to reduce emissions has “Policies such as the removal of been faster in the last five years than subsidies from fossil fuels may previously anticipated, particularly in increase total societal benefits relation to wind turbines, fuel cell through gains in economic technology, and renewable biomass fuels: efficiency…”

“Significant technical progress “Reduction of existing market or relevant to greenhouse gas institutional failures and other emissions reduction has been barriers that impede adoption of made since the SAR in 1995 and cost-effective emission reduction has been faster than anticipated.” measures can lower private costs compared to current practice”. “Technological options for emissions reduction include improved efficiency Hundreds of technologies are currently of end use devices and energy available to improve energy efficiency: conversion technologies, shift to low- carbon and renewable biomass fuels, “Hundreds of technologies and zero-emissions technologies, improved practices for end-use energy energy management, reduction of efficiency in buildings, transport industrial by-product and process gas and manufacturing industries emissions and carbon removal and account for more than half of this storage.” potential.”

Using known and currently available technologies, global greenhouse Stabilization of CO2 in the atmosphere emissions can be reduced below year at or below 450 ppmv is possible 2000 levels in period 2010-2020 at zero

23 Acknowledged conservative and unconventional fossil estimates considering no new resources.” technological breakthroughs indicate that it is possible to stabilize carbon To achieve this goal, government policies dioxide concentrations in the must encourage the adoption of energy atmosphere at or below 450 ppmv. efficient technologies and the rapid introduction of more low- or no-carbon “Most model results indicate that energy supply technologies. It is very known technological options important to start this change now, as could achieve a broad range of energy sector investments have a long life atmospheric CO 2 stabilisation time and thus the choices of today will levels, such as 550ppmv, determine the opportunities for the future, 450ppmv or below over the next especially in developing countries: 100 years or more, but implementation would require “For the crucial energy sector, almost associated socio-economic and all greenhouse gas mitigation and institutional changes.” concentration stabilisation scenarios are characterised by the introduction of efficient technologies for both Energy Investments need to be energy use and supply, and of low- or changed if stabilization is to be possible no-carbon energy.

The report contains a warning that Stabilization of CO2 will require, in the choice of energy investments in addition to emission reduction action the future will determine whether or in the developed countries, not--and at what level and cost--CO2 technology transfer to developing concentrations can be stabilized. countries:

“Developing a response to “Transfer of technologies climate change is characterized between countries and regions by decision making under will widen the choice of options uncertainty and risk, including the at the regional level and possibility of non linear risk economies of scale and learning and/or irreversible changes.” will lower the costs of their adoption.” “The choice of energy mix and associated investments will determine, whether and if so at Current fossil fuel reserves if released what level and cost greenhouse to the atmosphere would lead to very gas concentrations can be high atmospheric CO2 levels. stabilized.” Lower emissions and stabilization of “Currently such investment is CO2 concentration require different directed towards discovering and energy developments developing more conventional

24 The report contains several interlocking oil and perhaps gas to some other fuel conclusions relating to the question of sources at some point in the next century fossil fuel supply, oil and gas abundance and the question of stabilizing “These (fossil fuel) resource data atmospheric CO2 concentrations. may imply a change in the energy mix and introduction of new “there are abundant fossil fuel sources of energy during the 21st resources that will not limit century.” carbon emissions during the 21.century”. The choice of this transition will determine whether nor not and if so at Fossil fuel scarcity will not limit what level CO2 can be stabilized: carbon dioxide emissions this century however the report points “The choice of energy mix and out that the supply of oil and gas is associated investments will potentially limited: determine, whether and if so at what level and cost greenhouse “different from the large coal and gas concentrations can be unconventional oil and gas stabilized.” deposits, the carbon in proven conventional oil and gas reserves, In other words if the change is to coal are much less than the cumulative and/or unconventional oil then it may not carbon emissions associated with be possible to stabilize atmospheric CO2 stabilization of carbon dioxide at at low levels or at all. The change 450 ppmv or higher” involves substantial investment over a long period either towards Whilst this shows that proven unconventional or towards non-fossil conventional oil and gas reserves are alternatives. The Draft Summary for less than the carbon emissions Policy makers contained an important associated with stabilization of CO2 finding in this issue: at 450 ppmv or higher this begs the question as to whether this level is “The transition to sources other safe or not. Greenpeace believes than conventional oil and gas that it is not safe. Resources of coal reserves involves substantial and unconventional oils are far investment over a long period, larger than the amount of carbon that either towards unconventional can possibly be emitted to the fossil resources or towards non- atmosphere without dramatic fossil alternatives.” consequences. Currently, the share of coal in the global energy mix is This was removed in the final draft at the above 30%, and expected to grow in insistence of a number of countries led by the absence of efficient GHG the USA for essentially political reasons. policies. Nevertheless the report finds that: The limited supply of oil and natural gas implies that there has to be a change from “Currently such investment is directed towards discovering and

25 developing more conventional strong near-term incentives to and unconventional fossil future technological changes that resources.” may help to avoid lock-in to carbon-intensive technologies, Choices have to be made in the energy and allow for later tightening of system toward either fossil intensive targets should that be deemed investments or towards low carbon desirable in light of evolving technologies. This choice will decide if scientific understanding.” CO2 stabilisation will be possible and at what level. Hence this choice has a Climate policies may have extensive direct bearing on Parties obligations additional benefits. under Article 2 of the UNFCCC to stabilise CO2 at levels that would prevent “[R]educing carbon emissions in dangerous climate change. This, this is a many cases will result in the clear warning, and that there is no such simultaneous reduction in local thing as business as usual in the long and regional . It is term. likely that mitigation strategies will also affect transportation, On the timing of action to reduce agriculture, land-use practices and emissions a transition in the near term of and will have the world energy system towards lower an impact on other issues of carbon emissions will minimize the costs social concern, such as arising from the premature retirement of employment and energy capital stock (e.g. closing down coal fired security.” power stations) and from the damages of climate change. “It is likely that mitigation strategies will also affect transportation, “This report confirms the finding agriculture, land use practices and in the SAR that earlier actions, waste management and will have an including a portfolio of emissions impact on other issues of social mitigation, technology concern, such as employment, and development, and reduction of energy security. scientific uncertainty increase flexibility in moving towards “Double dividend. Instruments (such stabilisation of atmospheric as taxes or auctioned permits) provide concentrations of greenhouse revenues to the government. If used to gases”. finance reductions in existing distortionary taxes (“revenue “On the other hand, more rapid recycling”), these revenues reduce the near-term action would decrease economic cost of achieving environmental and human risks greenhouse gas reductions. associated with rapid climatic changes.” There will be winners and losers, but the damages can be minimised by “It would also stimulate more responsible decision- making. rapid deployment of existing low- emission technologies, provide

26 “Under mitigation policies, coal, Critical comments on the report possibly oil and gas, and certain energy intensive sectors such as While generally satisfied with the quality steel production, are most likely of the work in the reports of Working to suffer an economic Groups I and II, there are a number of disadvantage.” points that must be raised about the “Other industries including assessment of some of the issues in the industries and report of Working Group III. services can be expected to benefit in the long term from price changes and the availability Economic modeling and of financial and other resources determination of costs insufficient that would otherwise have been devoted to carbon intensive Mostly American global energy sectors.” economic model results for estimating the costs to Annex 1 countries of ” [T]he cost of mitigation actions implementing the Kyoto Protocol are could be reduced by appropriate used in the findings of the report. policies”. Although these model studies are limited because they do not take negative costs, “Policies such as removal of ancillary benefits or targeted revenue subsidies from fossil fuels may recycling into account, they are heavily increase total societal gains (...), emphasised in the conclusions of the while use of the KP mechanisms Working Group without substantial could be expected to reduce the qualification. net economic costs of meeting Annex B targets.” Even with these shortcomings, the models show that with emission trading, “With full between which is built into the Protocol, “the Annex B countries, the estimated estimated reductions in 2010 are between reductions in 2010 are between 0.1% 0.1 and 1.1% of projected GDP.” and 1.1% of projected GDP. (…) 0.5% Footnote 15 of the Summary for Policy of GDP corresponds to an impact on Makers puts this in perspective: economic growth rates over ten years of less than 0.1 percentage point.” “Many metrics can be used to present costs. For example, if the “Induced technological change is annual costs to developed an emerging field of inquiry. countries associated with meeting None of the literature reviewed in Kyoto targets with full Annex B TAR on the relationship between trading are in the order of 0.5% of the century-scale CO2 GDP, this represents US$125 concentrations and costs, reported billion (1000 million) per year, or results for models employing US$125 per person per year by induced technological change.” 2010 in Annex II (SRES assumptions). This corresponds to an impact on economic growth

27 rates over ten years of less than from forestry and agricultural by 0.1 percentage point.” products municipal and industrial waste to energy, dedicated The following additional explanation was biomass where in the original report, but deleted at the suitable land and water is insistence of the USA: “…while available, landfill methane, wind projected increase in GDP per capita is energy and hydro power, and US$ 3000- 5000 per year above today’s through the use and lifetime levels.” Further, the now deleted extension of nuclear power elements of the footnote explained that plants.” the impact is “well within inherent uncertainties (of economic growth In our view this results directly from the models), and the overall effect would be fact that the nuclear section of the report to defer economic growth by a few was written by an author from the months”. International Atomic Energy Agency. The lifetime extension of nuclear plants is hardly mentioned in the main report and Unequal treatment of technologies is so small relative to other option that it is not quantified. In addition the main The report of Working Group III should report is extremely one-sided in its have dealt more positively with discussion of nuclear power with the renewable energy. The bullet point on relevant sections dominated by an author low carbon technologies ends with the representing the International Atomic general qualifier which is applied to all of Energy Agency. The sections of this the technologies – renewable biomass, Chapter are quite unbalanced and do not wind, nuclear and CO2 disposal equally: describe the real state of nuclear power in “Environmental, safety, reliability and the world today. A visitor from Mars proliferation concerns may constrain the reading this section could be excused for use of some of these technologies”. In believing after reading this section that our view this is a serious distortion of the Nuclear power is expanding around the relative risk and problems facing the world and has unlimited possibilities. different classes of technologies. There is no place in IPCC assessments for such one-sided assessments. Whilst it is no secret that nuclear power is low Less certain future for nuclear power carbon energy source it is also no secret that nuclear power is being phased out in The reference to nuclear power in a number of countries and that the market the text is quite contentious and in outlook for nuclear power is very poor Greenpeace’s view represents a real owing to a range of well known distortion of the likely, realistic role problems. of nuclear power relative to all of the other options. Arguably all the factors indicate that the prospects for nuclear power are even "Low carbon energy supply worse than they were at the time of the systems can make an important Second Assessment Report. Since then contribution through biomass Germany, and Sweden have

28 set phase-out schedules for nuclear power This is not specifically qualified in any plants, and there has been substantial way by reference to environmental, erosion of public confidence in nuclear economic or public acceptability issues. power in Japan, further delaying planned It is very unlikely for example that CO2 nuclear construction. Liberalisation of disposal in the sea will be publicly energy markets in Europe and the USA acceptable and it is currently illegal under have also reduced or removed the international law, although experiments prospects for new nuclear plants in are to be conducted. There are also likely France and the USA. Long-term waste to be significant environmental concerns disposal issues seem no closer to in relation to CO2 removal technologies resolution and nuclear proliferation as well as to storage in aquifers and concerns have escalated as a consequence underground etc. The economics of CO2 of bomb testing on the Indian Sub- removal and storage from power stations continent and other developments. are still speculative although technically feasible. Finally the association of The only difference appears to be that in biomass fuelled power stations with CO2 the IPCC’s 1995 assessment the IAEA storage seems to be wrong, as in principle was not involved in writing the report biomass power stations should involved whereas its designated author more or little or no net addition of CO2 to the less controlled the writing of the sections atmosphere and should be renewable and in the Third Assessment Report. sustainable if done well. Most of these issues have not yet been studied. A better rendition of the real prospects Greenpeace feels that it is quite wrong to for nuclear power might read: include this option without a specific qualification. Nuclear power is being phased out in several European countries After much debate within WG III the and there have been no new plant compromise text on sinks reads: ordered in the OECD Annex B countries since 1991 and “Forests, agricultural lands, and other economic, environmental, safety, terrestrial ecosystems offer significant nuclear waste disposal, public carbon mitigation potential. Although acceptability and proliferation not necessarily permanent, concerns will constrain the use of conservation and sequestration of this technology. carbon may allow time for other options to be further developed and implemented.” The issue of sinks “Conservation of threatened carbon A contentious finding in Greenpeace’s pools may help to avoid emissions, if view is that “After 2010, emissions from leakage can be prevented, and only fossil and/or biomass- fuelled power become sustainable if the socio- plants could be reduced substantially economic drivers for deforestation and through pre- or post- combustion carbon other losses of carbon pools can be removal and storage.” addressed.“

29 “the estimated global potential of biological mitigation options is in the • Unless energy investment order of 100 GtC (cumulative), patterns are changed we although there are substantial may not be able to stabilize uncertainties associated with this CO2. estimate, by 2050, equivalent to 10- 20% of potential fossil fuel emissions • Availability of fossil fuels during that period.” will not limit future GHG emissions. As the energy This text is clearly a compromise mix needs to be changed as between those that advocate sinks and sources of oil and gas are those with a critical stance toward them. running out, the choice is Advocates see them as a low cost between coal and placeholder till emission reduction unconventional oil or new technologies fall into place in contrast to renewable energy sources. those criticising the uncertainty surrounding sinks and their temporary • The more quickly we character as well as the very likely effect initiate short-term action to that they will only slow down the process reduce emissions the more of introducing emission reducing we minimize the risk of technologies. damaging human and natural systems. Major Conclusions • Rapid adoption of emission From the findings of the Working reducing actions will Group III Greenpeace comes to the stimulate the deployment of following major conclusions: low carbon technologies and insure avoidance of • The costs of fulfilling the potential lock-in to carbon Kyoto commitments and intensive technologies. further reducing emissions are relatively low. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION Bill Hare • Stabilizing CO at Climate Policy Director 2 Greenpeace International relatively low levels based Keizersgracht 176, on known technology is 1016 DW , possible. The Netherlands Phone: +49-1709-057015

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