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Storm Surge Modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea

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Storm Surge Modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea Nat Hazards (2009) 51:3–27 DOI 10.1007/s11069-009-9397-9 ORIGINAL PAPER Storm surge modelling for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea S. K. Dube Æ Indu Jain Æ A. D. Rao Æ T. S. Murty Received: 30 July 2008 / Accepted: 8 April 2009 / Published online: 12 May 2009 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 Abstract Most of the countries around the North Indian Ocean are threatened by storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones. The destruction due to the storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges cause heavy loss of lives and property damage to the coastal structures and losses of agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devas- tated part of the eastern coast of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. More recently, the Chittagong cyclone of April 1991 killed 140,000 people in Bangladesh, and the Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than 15,000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. The main objective of this article is to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Keywords Numerical model Á Storm surges Á Tropical cyclone Á North Indian Ocean 1 Introduction The damage from landfalling cyclones is mainly due to three factors: rain, strong winds, and storm surges. Storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones are by far the most damaging. Death and destruction arise directly from the intense winds that are charac- teristic of tropical cyclones blowing over a large surface of water. If bounded by a shallow basin, these winds cause the sea water to pile up on the coast and lead to sudden inundation and flooding of coastal regions. About 90% of the damage is due to inundation of land by S. K. Dube (&) Á I. Jain Á A. D. Rao Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi 110 016, India e-mail: [email protected] T. S. Murty Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada 123 4 Nat Hazards (2009) 51:3–27 sea water. In addition, flooding of the river deltas occurs from the combined effects of tides and surges from the sea, which penetrate into the rivers, because at the same time, excess water in the rivers due to heavy rains from the cyclone is trying to flow through the rivers into the sea. Almost all the loss of lives and most of the damage from a tropical cyclone are attributable to the storm surge generated by the cyclones. Thus, the real-time monitoring and warning of storm surges is of great interest. It is necessary that the problem of the storm surge be seriously addressed by the countries of the various regions through col- lective efforts and in an integrated manner. In this study, the cyclonic storm is the sole driving force for the dynamical processes in the sea. However, the tides and wave setup have not been included in this study. Besides contribution of tides and wave setup, Continental shelf waves, edge waves, and Topo- graphic Rossby waves may also significantly contribute to the total water level (Morey et al. 2006). It may also be of interest to examine the inclusion of mesoscale forcing and remote forcing in the model. Observations in the Indian seas and also elsewhere have shown that mesoscale forcing could have a recognizable contribution to the storm surge amplitudes. The Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT-D) storm surge model, as presently constituted, only uses synoptic scale forcing as the input. However, even if they are not as well developed as tropical cyclones, mesoscale depressions and squall lines could pack quite strong wind fields, which can then add in favorable circumstances, up to a couple of meters to the total water level envelope. 2 Storm surges in the Bay of Bengal Storm surges are an extremely serious hazard along the east coast of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Although Sri Lanka is affected only occasionally by the storm surge, tropical cyclones of November 1964 and November 1978, and cyclone of November 1992 have caused extensive loss of lives and property damage in the region. Storm surges affect Myanmar to a much less extent in comparison with Bangladesh and India. Notable storm surges, which have affected Myanmar, have been during May 1967, 1968, 1970, 1975, 1982, 1992, 1994, and 2008; of which the 1982, 1994, and 2008 (Nargis) caused the heaviest loss of lives and damage. Nargis generated storm surge in excess of 4 m near Ayeyarwady deltaic region. The entire deltaic coast of Myanmar was flooded with surges ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 m. A detailed review of the problem of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal is given by Ali (1979), Rao (1982), Roy (1984), Murty (1984), Murty et al. (1986), Das (1994a, b), Go¨nnert et al. (2001), Dube et al. (1997, 2000a), and Chittibabu (1999). In this article, a brief account of the problem of storm surges in Myanmar, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Oman will be given. Of all the countries surrounding the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh suffers most from storm surges. The main factors contributing to disastrous surges in Bangladesh may be sum- marized as (Ali 1979) (a) shallow coastal water, (b) convergence of the bay, (c) high astronomical tides, (d) thickly populated low-lying islands, (e) favorable cyclone track, and (f) innumerable number of inlets including world’s largest river system (Ganga– Brahmaputra–Meghna). 123 Nat Hazards (2009) 51:3–27 5 3 Storm surges in the Arabian Sea Although the frequency of storm surges is less in the Arabian Sea than in the Bay of Bengal, major destructive surges can occur occasionally along the Gujarat Coast of India and Pakistan. Events of storm surges affecting the Gulf of Oman have been somewhat rare; however, there have been some cases when storm surges caused destruction along the coasts of Oman. Most recent example has been the super cyclone Gonu that struck Oman causing about $4 billion in damage (JTWC 2007) and 49 deaths. 4 Destruction potential Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is not high compared with northwest Pacific, the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar suffer most in terms of loss of lives and property damage. The reasons, besides the inadequate pre- diction of storm surges accurately, are the low lands all along these coasts and considerable low-lying huge deltas, such as the Gangetic delta and the Ayeyarwady delta. These major surges usually occur, sometimes with inadequate advance notice. The number of causalities would be much lower if these surges could be predicted reasonably well in advance allowing effective warnings and evacuations in the threatened areas. The purpose of this article is to give a review of recent developments in predicting the storm surges in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Dube et al. (1994, 1997, 2000a, 2004, 2005, 2006), Rao et al. (1997), Chittibabu (1999), Chittibabu et al. (2000, 2002), and Jain et al. (2006a, b) have developed an operational numerical storm surge prediction model which has been successfully applied in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. 5 Data input for surge prediction models In order to achieve greater confidence in surge prediction in the Indian Seas, one should have good knowledge of the input parameters for the models. These parameters include the oceanographic and meteorological parameters (including storm characteristics), hydro- logical input, basin characteristics and coastal geometry, wind stress and seabed friction, and information about the astronomical tides. It has been seen that in many cases, these input parameters strongly influence the surge development. Most of the northern Bay of Bengal is very shallow and is characterized by sharp changes in seabed contours. The shallowness of water may considerably modify the surge heights in this region. Therefore, accurate bathymetry is needed for improved surge pre- diction. The bathymetry for the model is derived from the Earth-topography-two-minute module (ETOPO2) from the National Geophysical Data Center database (Smith and Sandwell 1997). 6 Real-time storm surge prediction system for the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea In India, the study of the numerical storm surge prediction was pioneered by Das (1972). Subsequently, several workers attempted the prediction of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal (Das et al. 1974; Ghosh 1977; Johns and Ali 1980; Johns et al. 1981; Murty and Henry 1983; Dube et al. 1985a). 123 6 Nat Hazards (2009) 51:3–27 Dube et al. (1994), Dube and Gaur (1995), and Chittibabu et al. (2000) developed a real- time storm surge prediction system for the coastal regions of India. Real-time storm surge prediction systems have also been developed for Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman (Dube et al. 2004; Jain et al. 2006a, b; Chittibabu et al. 2002). The National Meteorological and National Hydrological Services of many countries surrounding the North Indian Ocean have achieved some success in providing storm surge warnings and for implementing improved models through cooperative and coordinated sharing of responsibilities within the framework and overall guidance and supervision of the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
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