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A Numerical Modelling Case Study of Cyclone Nilofar Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman Sarker

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A Numerical Modelling Case Study of Cyclone Nilofar Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman Sarker Water and Environment Journal. Print ISSN 1747-6585 Cyclone hazards in the Arabian sea–A numerical modelling case study of Cyclone Nilofar Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman Sarker Royal HaskoningDHV, Rightwell House, Bretton, Peterborough, PE3 8DW, UK Keywords Abstract numerical modelling; natural hazards; cyclone; extreme waves; storm surge; port develop- Cyclones cause significant loss of life and damage to properties, ecosystems and ment; Arabian Sea. marine facilities. To address such issues, Royal HaskoningDHV (RHDHV) has devel- oped regional tidal hydrodynamic and wave models covering the Northern Arabian Correspondence Sea. A total of 29 major cyclones were identified in the Arabian Sea since 1945. Dr Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman Sarker, However, as less information is available on Cyclone Nilofar (2014), this paper has Principal Engineer; research fields: numerical modelling of coastal processes including concentrated on this event to illustrate the use of numerical modelling to simulate waves, tides, sediment transport, cyclones, waves and surge generated by cyclones. Sample results from the modelling study tsunamis, sea ice and water quality (dredge are presented in this paper. The methodology described in this paper for modelling plume, outfall discharge and oil spills). cyclone waves and surges in the Arabian Sea could be applied to simulate such nat- Email: [email protected] ural hazards at other sites around the world. doi:10.1111/wej.12214 Introduction especially vulnerable to tropical cyclones with around Tropical cyclones are associated with high-pressure gra- 718,000 deaths from them in the past 50 years (Haque et al., dients and consequent strong winds and storm surges. Very 2012). The deadliest tropical cyclone was the 1970 Bhola strong winds may damage installations, dwellings, transpor- Cyclone, which had a death toll of anywhere from 300,000 to tation and communication systems, trees etc. and cause 500,000 lives (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_tropi- fires resulting in considerable loss of life and damage to cal_cyclones). property. Destruction of transportation or communications Despite their devastating effects, tropical cyclones are infrastructure hampers clean-up and rescue efforts. Heavy essential features of the Earth’s atmosphere as they bring and prolonged rains due to cyclones may cause floods and rain to dry areas and transfer heat and energy between the submergence of low lying areas and can lead to mudslides equator and the cooler regions nearer the poles. and landslides in mountainous areas causing loss of life and A large tidal hydrodynamic model is required to simulate property. Floods, standing water and coastal inundation due cyclone surge on a region whereas a large wave model is to storm surges pollute drinking water sources and spread required to simulate cyclone waves. Given the above risks, diseases leading to outbreak of epidemics. RHDHV has developed regional tidal hydrodynamic and Cyclones also impose significant risks during construction wave models covering the Northern Arabian Sea to investi- and operation of sea ports, oil terminals & jetties, offshore gate the natural hazards and to support their project work in exploratory drilling rigs and offshore oil extraction rigs. They the region. The models have been used to assess cyclones put lives and properties in coastal areas at greater risks and within this region. cause significant loss of ecosystems and marine facilities. Literature search on cyclones in the Arabian Sea was car- The destruction from a tropical cyclone depends on its inten- ried out and a total of 29 major cyclones were identified sity, its size, and its location. since 1945. However, the present study was focused to the During the last two centuries, tropical cyclones have been recent cyclone “Cyclone Nilofar” that occurred in October responsible for the deaths of about 1.9 million people 2014. Cyclone waves and surge were modelled. Sample worldwide (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_tropical_ results from these modelling studies are presented in this cyclones). It is estimated that 10,000 people per year perish paper for illustration purposes only. due to tropical cyclones (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ The methodology described in this paper for modelling Effects_of_tropical_cyclones). For example, Bangladesh is cyclone waves and surges in the Arabian Sea could be Water and Environment Journal (2016) VC 2016 CIWEM. 1 Cyclone hazards in the Arabian sea M. A. Sarker1 Fig. 1. Cumulative track map of Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea from 1970 to 2005 [https:// upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c0/ North_Indian_cyclone_tracks.jpg]. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] applied to simulate such natural hazards at other sites A total of 29 cyclones were initially identified to have around the world. crossed the Arabian Sea since 1945 and affected the Omani coastline. The events were selected based on a combination of severity (wind speed, central pressure and diameter) and the Cyclones in the Arabian sea proximity to the site of interest. Tracks and pressure fields of the selected cyclones were obtained from the Joint Typhoon As reported in [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Indian_ Warning Center (JTWC), USA (The Joint Typhoon Warning Cen- Ocean_tropical_cyclone, the Arabian Sea is located in the ter (JTWC), the U.S. Department of Defence Agency). Data of north-west of the Indian Ocean. Tropical cyclones in the these 29 selected cyclones are listed in Table 2. basin are abbreviated ARB by the India Meteorological In particular, the passage of Cyclone Gonu (in 2007), Department (IMD), the official Regional Specialized Meteoro- Cyclone Phet (in 2010) and Cyclone Nilofar (in 2014) has logical Centre (RSMC) of the basin. The Arabian Sea’s coast is raised awareness of the risk of cyclonic events. Cyclones shared among India, Yemen, Oman, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Gonu and Phet had a significant effect on the Omani coast- Maldives and Somalia. Monsoons are characteristic of the line and their impact is well documented. As less information Arabian Sea and responsible for the yearly cycling of its is available on Cyclone Nilofar, this paper has concentrated waters. In summer, strong winds blow from the south-west on this event to illustrate the use of numerical modelling to to the north-east, bringing rain to the Indian subcontinent. simulate waves and surge generated by cyclones. During the winter, the winds are milder and blow in the opposite direction, from the north-east to the south-west. Cyclones occur frequently in the Arabian Sea and can affect Cyclone Nilofar (2014) the Northern Arabian Sea Region. These events usually occur during the transition periods of the monsoons which are Formation of Cyclone Nilofar between May and June and between October and November. Cyclone Nilofar was classified as an extremely Severe Cumulative track map of Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea Cyclonic Storm and was the strongest tropical cyclone of from 1970 to 2005 is illustrated in Fig. 1 (https://upload.wikime- 2014 within the North Indian Ocean and the strongest storm dia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c0/North_Indian_cyclone_tracks. to form over the Arabian Sea since Cyclone Phet in 2010. jpg). The Saffir-Simpson Scale classifying depression, tropical Nilofar originated from a low pressure area in the Arabian storm and cyclone is given in Table 1. Sea that intensified into a depression on 25 October 2014. It 2 Water and Environment Journal (2016) VC 2016 CIWEM. M. A. Sarker1 Cyclone hazards in the Arabian sea Table 1 Saffir-Simpson cyclone classification 1-min peak wind 1-min peak wind 1-min peak wind Storm type Category Pressure (hPa) speed (knots) speed (mph) speed (km/h) Depression TD - < 34 <39 < 63 Tropical Storm TS - 34 – 63 39 – 73 63 – 118 Hurricane 1 > 980 64 – 82 74 – 95 119 – 153 Hurricane 2 965 – 980 83 – 95 96 – 110 154 – 177 Hurricane 3 945 – 965 96 – 113 111 – 130 178 – 210 Hurricane 4 920 – 945 114 – 135 131 - 155 211 - 250 Hurricane 5 < 920 > 135 > 155 > 250 slowly consolidated and reached cyclonic storm strength Track of Cyclone Nilofar the following day. The system rapidly intensified in the fol- The track (route) of Cyclone Nilofar was obtained from JTWC and lowing days, reaching a peak intensity of 950 mbar (28.05 is shown in Fig. 2 (The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the inHg) on 28 October 2014. Over time the storm tracked U.S. Department of Defence Agency). The JTWC archived cyclone northeastwards towards an area of high vertical wind shear, data also contains 6 hourly information including date and time, causing the storm to rapidly weaken. The name Nilofar, tracks (path), maximum sustained wind speeds, radius of maxi- referring to the water lily, was suggested by Pakistan mum sustained wind speeds and the minimum central pres- (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Nilofar). sures. Such data of Cyclone Nilofar is provided in Table 3. Table 2 Major cyclones in the Arabian Sea during 1945-2014 (The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the U.S. Department of Defence Agency) Time & Date Max sustained Codes & Distance from Ras wind speeds Minimum central Radius of max No. Year Names Markaz (miles) Start End (knots) pressure (mb) winds (nm) 1 1959 01 Unknown 18 May 18:00 24 May 00:00 Unknown Unknown Unknown 2 1962 01 Unknown 27 May 18:00 30 May 00:00 Unknown Unknown Unknown 3 1963 02 Unknown 17 May 18:00 26 May 12:00 Unknown Unknown Unknown 4 1966 13 Unknown 31 Oct 18:00 11 Nov 12:00 Unknown Unknown Unknown 5 1970 01 Unknown 28
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