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1St WMO International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, 8-11 March 2009 WWRP 2010 - 2 1st WMO International Conference on Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, 8-11 March 2009 For more information, please contact: World Meteorological Organization Research Department Atmospheric Research and Environment Branch 7 bis, avenue de la Paix – P.O. Box 2300 – CH 1211 Geneva 2 – Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 83 14 – Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 27 E-mail: [email protected] – Website: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/index_en.html WMO/TD - No. 1541 © World Meteorological Organization, 2010 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate these publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chairperson, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Opinions expressed in WMO publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. This document (or report) is not an official publication of WMO and has not been subjected to its standard editorial procedures. The views expressed herein do not necessarily have the endorsement of the Organization. WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION WORLD WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAMME WWRP 2010 - 2 1st WMO INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE Muscat, Sultanate of Oman, 8 – 11 March 2009 Edited by: Salim Al-Hatrushi and Yassine Charabi Department of Geography Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman WMO/TD-No.1541 TABLE OF CONTENTS Inter-annual Variation of Frequency of Cyclonic Disturbances Landfalling over WMO/ESCAP Panel Member Countries Ajit Tyagi, M.Mohapatra, B.K. Bandyopadhyay and Naresh Kumar ................................................................................................... 1 Toward Improved Projection of the Future Tropical Cyclone Changes Masato Sugi........................................................................................................................................................................................ 8 An Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Cyclone Frequency and Design Wave Height in the Oman Sea Mohammad Dibajnia, Mohsen Soltanpour and Doug Scott................................................................................................................ 19 Long-Range Prediction of Tropical Cyclones for Bangladesh Saleh A. Wasimi.................................................................................................................................................................................. 29 On Developing a Tropical Cyclone Archive and Climatology for the South Indian and South Pacific Oceans Y. Kuleshov, L. Qi, R. Fawcett, D. Jones, F. Chane-Ming, J. McBride and H. Ramsay ..................................................................... 39 International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Synthesizing Global Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data David H. Levinson, Paula A. Hennon, Michael C. Kruk, Kenneth R. Knapp and Howard J. Diamond ............................................... 48 Simulation of Track and Intensity of Gonu and Sidr with WRF-NMM Modelling System Sujata Pattanayak and U. C. Mohanty................................................................................................................................................ 64 NWP Model Assessment during the Tropical Cyclone Gonu Sultan Salim Al-yahyai........................................................................................................................................................................ 77 Understanding the Tropical Cyclone Gonu Khalid Ahmad Al Najar and P.S. Salvekar ........................................................................................................................................ 87 The Use of RS and GIS to Evaluate the Effects of Tropical Cyclones: a Case Study from A'Seeb, Muscat after GONU Cyclone Talal Al-Awadhi................................................................................................................................................................................... 95 Influence of Cyclone Gonu and other Tropical Cyclones on Phytoplankton Blooms Sergey A. Piontkovski, and Adnan R.Al-Azri ...................................................................................................................................... 105 Effect of Tropical Cyclones on Agriculture and Socio-Economic Conditions of Rural People in Bangladesh Md. Toriqul Islam, Md. Zakaria Hossain, Masaaki Ishida and Toshinori Sakai................................................................................... 119 INTER-ANNUAL VARIATION OF FREQUENCY OF CYCLONIC DISTURBANCES LANDFALLING OVER WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER COUNTRIES Ajit Tyagi, M.Mohapatra, B.K. Bandyopadhyay and Naresh Kumar India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi-110003 Abstract A study is undertaken to find out characteristics of interannual variation like coefficient of variation, trends and periodicities etc. in the annual frequencies of different categories of disturbances such as depressions, cyclonic storms, severe cyclonic storms, total cyclonic storms and total cyclonic disturbances landfalling over different coastal states of India and other member countries of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) / Economic and Social Cooperation for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Panel based on the data of 115 years (1891-2005). Considering different coastal states of India, about 68% of the disturbances developing over the Bay of Bengal have landfall over east coast and about 30% of the disturbances developing over the Arabian Sea have landfall over west coast. Out of total disturbances having landfall over east and west coasts of India, about 85% and 44% cross Orissa and Gujarat coasts respectively. While the frequency of severe cyclonic storms crossing Andhra Pradesh coast shows significant increasing trend, the frequencies of cyclonic storms crossing Orissa, West Bengal and Gujarat coasts show significant decreasing trends. The sixth order polynomial trends could be well fitted to the frequencies of different categories of disturbances crossing the coasts during this period. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is significantly observed in the frequency of cyclonic storms crossing Orissa coast. The cyclonic storms crossing Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts show significant cycles of 5-6 years. The severe cyclonic storms crossing Andhra Pradesh coast exhibits QBO and that crossing West Bengal coast shows QBO as well as 4-5 years cycle of oscillation. There is no periodicity in the frequency of disturbances landfalling over other coastal states of India. The results and analysis for other member countries of WMO/ESCAP Panel, as per the above mentioned procedure, has been presented and discussed in detail in this study. Keywords: Cyclone variability, WMO/ESCAP Panel INTRODUCTION Understanding the patterns of the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the tropical Oceans assumed importance in the scenario of global climate change. In association with an increasing trend in the global temperature, it is of interest to examine the frequency of cyclones. For the Indian region surrounded by north Indian Ocean, cyclonic storms generally form during pre- monsoon & post monsoon seasons and cause devastation due to heavy rainfall causing flood, strong wind damaging structures and storm surge inundating the low line coastal areas. In recent years, a few severe cyclone storms like Gonu, Sidr and Nargis have developed over this Ocean basin cause huge loss of life and property. The trends and variability of cyclonic disturbances developing over the north Indian Ocean have been analysed by various authors (Bhaskar Rao et al., 2001). However, a few attempts have been made to analyse the trends and variability of landfalling disturbances over the north Indian Ocean. In this background, a study has been undertaken on the trends and variability in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances developing over the north Indian Ocean and landfalling over World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)/ Economic and Social Cooperation for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Panel member countries (Figure 1). 1 Figure 1 - Area of responsibility of RSMC- Tropical Cyclone, New Delhi. 1. DATA AND METHODOLOGY The study aims at analyzing the characteristics of interannual variation like coefficient of variation (CV), trends and periodicities etc. in the annual frequencies of different categories of disturbances such as depressions, cyclonic storms, severe cyclonic storms, total cyclonic storms and total cyclonic disturbances landfalling over different coastal states of India
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