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NUMERICAL SIMULATION of TROPICAL CYCLONES and STORM SURGES in the ARABIANSEA Mohsen Soltanpour, K

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NUMERICAL SIMULATION of TROPICAL CYCLONES and STORM SURGES in the ARABIANSEA Mohsen Soltanpour, K 36th International Conference on Coastal Engineering K. N. Toosi University of Technology Waseda University Tehran University NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES AND STORM SURGES IN THE ARABIANSEA Mohsen Soltanpour, K. N. Toosi University of Technology Zahra Ranji, K. N. Toosi University of Technology Tomoya Shibayama, Waseda University Sarmad Ghader, University of Tehran Shinsaku Nishizaki, Waseda University Study Area Motivation Numerical Simulation Conclusion 1/19 20 Cyclones and Depressions Study Area 15 Motivation 10 Numerical 5 Simulation Frequency of occurence (percent) ofoccurence Frequency 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Conclusion 30 Sever Cyclonic Storms 25 20 2/19 15 10 5 Frequency of occurence (percent) ofoccurence Frequency 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Target Study Area Motivation Gonu, 2007 Cyclones Ashobaa, 2015 Numerical Simulation Conclusion 3/19 Study Area Field Measurements (Gonu) Motivation Chabahar Bay Numerical Simulation Conclusion 4/19 Study Area Motivation Numerical More severe Simulation cyclonic storms since 2000 Conclusion 6/19 Time History of Maximum Wind Speed during Cyclone Modelling Study Area Atmosphere Framework Model (WRF) Motivation Numerical Simulation WAVE Model Current vector Ocean Circulation Conclusion (SWAN, SWAVE) Radiation Stress Model (FVCOM) Boundary Boundary condition condition 7/19 Global Global Wave Model Tide Model (WWIII) (TPXO 8) Study Area Motivation Numerical WRF domain Simulation Conclusion 8/19 FVCOM, SWAVE, SWAN domain WRF Model Study Area Model component ConfigurationAshobaa (2015) Gonu (2007) Model version 3.9.1 Motivation Start time June 6th-00 UTC June 2nd-00 UTC Numerical Initial and boundary condition FNL (1°) GFS ANL (0.5°) Simulation Nesting type Fixed nest Conclusion Vertical resolution 40 terrain following sigma mass coordinate 30 km: 62.5 E-17.5 N (210×180) Horizontal resolution and domains 10 km: 58.31 E-19.03 N (517×277) Planetary 9/19 Target Microphysics Cumulus Land surface Surface Radiation boundary cyclones scheme scheme scheme layer scheme scheme layer scheme Ashobaa Grell 3D Unified Noah WSM3 (2015) Ensemble Land Surface MM5 Dudhia & YSU Gonu 5–layer Thermal Similarity RRTM WSM6 Kain–Fritsch (2007) Diffusion TCs Track Study Area Gonu, 2007 Ashobaa, 2015 Motivation Numerical Simulation Conclusion 10/19 Conclusion Simulation Numerical Motivation Area Study WRF Model Results 11/19 Measurement Stations TCs Center Wave Models Study Area Wave Model ConfigurationSWAVE SWAN Motivation Horizontal grid 1-50 km unstructured grid 1-50 km unstructured grid Bathymetry GEBCO 30 sec + local ETOPO 1 min + local Numerical Simulation Wind field WRF WRF Wave-wave interaction Triad and quadruplet Triad and quadruplet Conclusion White capping Komen Alves & Banner Wave growth Komen WESTH 12/19 Wave breaking 0.73 0.73 Bed friction Madsen Madsen Frequency Resolution 40 40 Directional Resolution 24 72 Boundary condition - WWIII SWAN Model Study Area Results Motivation Numerical Simulation Conclusion 13/19 Circulation Model Study Area ConfigurationFVCOM Motivation Horizontal grid 100-50000 m unstructured grid Numerical Vertical grid 10 sigma layers Simulation Time step 2 sec Bathymetry GEBCO 30 sec + local Conclusion Open boundary TPXO 8 Wind field WRF Pressure field WRF 14/19 Vertical turbulence M.Y 2.5 Closure model Horizontal turbulence Smagorinsky Bed roughness z0 = 0.005 Study Area FVCOM Model Motivation Numerical Results-Gonu Simulation Conclusion 15/19 FVCOM Model Results- Ashobaa Fully Coupled FVCOM-SWAVE Study Area Results Motivation Numerical Simulation Conclusion 16/19 Study Area Motivation Numerical Simulation Conclusion 17/19 Summary Study Area Motivation . Cyclone Gonu, which occurred from June 1 to June 7, 2007, was the most intense tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. Numerical Simulation . Cyclone Ashobaa, 2015 is the last cyclone reach to the Gulf of Oman. Analysis of historical data indicates the possibility of more frequent intense Conclusion cyclones in future. A coupled system of WRF-FVCOM-SWAN was employed and calibrated for the simulations of winds, waves and surges, resulted from cyclones Gonu and 18/19 Ashobaa, as two examples of intense and weak target cyclones entered the Gulf of Oman. Conclusion Study Area Motivation . Approaching cyclones towards the coastline, wind wave becomes predominant. Numerical . Two way coupling of wave-circulation models leads to insignificant change of Simulation surge height. Cyclone landfall in the vicinity of the Gulf of Oman can cause significant positive Conclusion and negative surges in the enclosed basin of Persian Gulf. Surge height is strongly dependent on the bathymetry and shape of the bays, 19/19 besides the intensity of cyclone. Thank You For Your Attention.
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