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Brazilian Homebuilders & Real Estate Brokers 14 November 2012 Americas/Brazil Equity Research Homebuilding Brazilian Homebuilders & Real Estate Brokers Research Analysts RESULTS Guilherme Rocha 55 11 3701 6321 [email protected] Smaller Players are the Winners Lia Carlos 55 11 3701 6308 Yesterday, five companies reported their 3Q12 results (Brookfield, Helbor, [email protected] Tecnisa, BR Brokers, and Lopes). Below we summarize our key conclusions Vanessa Quiroga, CFA and on the following pages provide more details on each company’s results. 52 55 5283 8939 [email protected] ■ Focus on cash generation: As we mentioned in our previous report, Eugenio Amador companies are holding off on launchings and focusing on selling inventory in 52 55 5283 8900 order to generate cash. Some companies are already succeeding, such as [email protected] Cyrela, Even, and Gafisa. Direcional almost broke even this quarter, as we Julian Bravo Lozano 52 55 5283 3821 expected. Nonetheless, other companies disappointed regarding cash [email protected] generation such as Tecnisa, Brookfield, and Helbor (despite good results overall). ■ Few exceptions: There were some exceptions, such as Helbor and Direcional, that continue their great performance. Other companies surprised positively, such as Even (with a better-than-expected gross margin) and Eztec (with the highest margin among peers). ■ Brokerage companies impacted: As expected, brokerage companies were affected by a lower level of launchings at HBs. Although Lopes’s results came in below our expectation, it was better in comparison to BBRK, probably due to greater client diversification. Exhibit 1: 3Q12 Results vs. Estimates R$ million, unless otherwise stated Company Ticker CS View EPS 3Q12A CSe Consensus vs. Cse vs. IBES Homebuilders Helbor HBOR3 Positive 0.42 0.35 0.34 19.6% 22.9% Tecnisa TCSA3 Negative -0.30 0.14 0.25 -311.5% -221.4% Brookfield BISA3 Negative 0.07 0.08 0.11 -9.8% -37.5% Already Reported EZ Tec EZTC3 Positive 0.64 0.57 0.60 11.4% 7.4% Cyrela CYRE3 Neutral 0.36 0.43 0.43 -18.2% -17.1% Even EVEN3 Positive 0.28 0.27 0.27 4.8% 3.0% Gafisa GFSA3 Neutral 0.01 0.06 0.06 -79.9% -80.0% Direcional DIRR3 Neutral 0.36 0.36 0.36 -0.7% -1.3% MRV MRVE3 Neutral 0.31 0.29 0.32 9.0% -1.2% Brokers Brasil Brokers BBRK3 Neutral 0.09 0.09 0.11 4.8% -12.5% Lopes LPSB3 Neutral 0.29 0.35 0.46 -15.4% -36.8% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, INFORMATION ON TRADE ALERTS, ANALYST MODEL PORTFOLIOS AND THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION™ Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access Exhibit 2: ROE LTM *Based on our estimate for PDG in 3Q12 Helbor 28% EZTEC 23% MRV 17% Direcional 16% Even 13% Cyrela 12% PDG -5% Tecnisa -7% Brookfield -10% Gafisa -39% Source: Companies data, Credit Suisse estimates Exhibit 3: Net Margin in 3Q12 *Based on our estimate for PDG in 3Q12 EZTEC 44% Helbor 21% Direcional 15% MRV 13% Even 12% Cyrela 11% Brookfield 3% Rossi 3% Gafisa 0% PDG -8% Tecnisa -15% Source: Companies data, Credit Suisse estimates Exhibit 4: Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio in 3Q12 *Based on our estimate for PDG in 3Q12. **Pro forma: including announced capital injection. 122% 121% 107% 106% 92% 74% 64% 59% 57% 56% 52% 26% -1% PDG MRV Even Gafisa Cyrela Helbor EZTEC Tecnisa Brookfield Direcional PDG pro-forma Rossi pro-forma Brookfield pro-forma Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Exhibit 5: P/BV Ratio in 3Q12 *Based on our estimate for PDG in 3Q12 2.4x 2.2x 1.5x 1.4x 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x 0.7x 0.7x 0.6x 0.6x PDG MRV Even Rossi Cyrela Gafisa Helbor EZTEC Tecnisa Direcional Brookfield Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Brookfield (BISA3) Revenue came in in line with our estimate, but bottom line was almost 10% below our estimate on the back of a worse net financial result. At first glance, revenue declined 23% yoy, but in 3Q11 there was an impact of R$130mn from the sale of Giroflex. The company surprised us with a better gross margin: 420bps above our estimate (although it represented a compression of 280 yoy). Selling expenses came in 19.2% below our estimate and declined vs. 2Q12 due to a change in accounting procedures. As mentioned in our previous report, the company surprised us with (i) a qoq improvement in launchings and contracted sales and (ii) healthy speed of sales (SoS) of 20.2%. Even though we think that Brookfield is at risk of not reaching its guidance for launchings, the company believes it is still possible to meet the low point as they expect a huge volume of launchings to take place in 4Q12 (especially due to three large projects). It is worth highlighting that the guidance (revised after 2Q12) is R$3bn–R$3.5bn and the company had reached only 41.6% of the mid-point by 9M12. Finally, on the negative side, cash burn was 213% higher than our estimate, even higher than in 2Q12, driven especially by a R$215mn increase in construction financing (corporate debt remained practically flat). The company has a net debt-to-equity ratio of 121.4% and expects to use the proceeds from the R$400mn capital injection to reach 92.4%. The new level will still be on the high side vs. peers. Even though we see improvements, we are still concerned with the high leverage and the difficulty in generating cash. Exhibit 6: Brookfield financial results R$ million, unless otherwise stated 3Q12A 3Q12E 2Q12A 3Q11A Q/Q Y/Y A/E Revenue was slightly above Net sales 921 901 669 1,198 37.6% -23.1% 2.2% COGS (666) (690) (763) (832) -12.7% -20.0% -3.4% our estimate. Gross Profit 255 212 (94) 365 -372.4% -30.2% 20.5% Gross margin was 420bps Gross margin 27.7% 23.5% -14.0% 30.5% 41.7 p.p. -2.8 p.p. 4.2 p.p. Operating expenses (98) (96) (118) (114) -16.3% -13.8% 2.2% above CSe but was 280bps Selling expenses (38) (47) (44) (55) -14.5% -31.3% -19.4% below 3Q11. Administrative expenses (43) (45) (37) (43) 15.1% -0.4% -5.2% Operational profit 95 71 (314) 189 -130.3% -49.8% 34.3% Net financial result (37) (8) (41) (44) -9.7% -17.1% 346.0% EBT 58 63 (355) 145 -116.4% -59.8% -6.9% Income tax (27) (28) (29) (37) -5.8% -27.2% -3.3% Minority interest - - - - n.a. n.a. n.a. Net income was 9.8% below Net income 31 35 (383) 108 -108.1% -71.0% -9.8% CSe, a decline of 71% yoy. Net Margin 3.4% 3.8% -57.3% 9.0% 60.7 p.p. -5.6 p.p. -0.5 p.p. EPS 0.07 0.08 (0.86) 0.23 -108.1% -70.1% -9.8% Ebitda margin declined D&A 4.7 4.7 4.7 0.7 0.1% 535.1% 0.0% 250bps yoy but was 420bps Adj. Ebitda 161 120 (207) 252 -178.1% -36.0% 34.3% above our estimate. EBITDA Margin 17.5% 13.3% -30.9% 21.0% 48.4 p.p. -3.5 p.p. 4.2 p.p. Cash Burn 325 104 311 36 4.7% 815.9% 213.4% Cash burn was 213% higher Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates than our expectation. Helbor (HBOR3) In a nutshell, results were above our expectation. Top line was 9% above CSe, implying strong growth of 33.5% yoy. Gross margin also improved 250bps yoy and was 250 bps above CSe. SG&A and other expenses were above our estimate but increased less than revenue. Backlog margin was 36.5%, 180bps below 3Q11 and 80bps below 2Q12. On the negative side, cash burn came in higher than our expectation (that the company would be close to break-even this quarter). This cash burn was due to the payment of a debenture installment, the purchase of land, and the purchase of Certificate of Additional Construction Potential (CEPACs), as well as a lower volume of units delivered in 2Q12, which created a decline in pass-throughs in 3Q12 (lag of 60 to 90 days). Net financial result was better than our expectation due to an increase in financial revenue on the back of a monetary gain on construction contracts adjusted by the INCC index. Interest expenses also increased, but not enough to offset the increase in financial revenue. Net margin improved substantially (440bps yoy) and was 180bps above our expectation. Net income increased by almost 70% yoy and was ~20 above our expectation (driven by margin improvements). Exhibit 7: Helbor Financial Results R$ million, unless otherwise stated 3Q12A 3Q12E 2Q12A 3Q11A Q/Q Y/Y A/E Net revenue came in 9% Net sales 391.7 359.4 363.2 293.3 7.8% 33.5% 9.0% above our expectation.
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