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Trumpism Beyond Trump: the Future of the Radical Right 23 During the Biden Administration 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE THE BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION: Vicente Palacio A NEW POLITICAL CYCLE Director and editor 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE THE BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION: A NEW POLITICAL CYCLE Director and editor: Vicente Palacio All rights reserved. According to the law, you may not copy, modify, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication. Any other uses require the prior written permission of Fundación Alternativas. This work is published under the responsibility of Fundación Alternativas. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the view of Fundación Alternativas as an institution. ISBN: 978-84-18677-21-2 Translation: Richard Preston Edition: Mateo Peyrouzet Layout: Belén Avilés and Carlos Alemany Actividad subvencionada por la Secretaría de Estado de la España Global 1 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE THE BIDEN-HARRIS ADMINISTRATION: A NEW POLITICAL CYCLE INDEX INTRODUCTION. NEW TRENDS FOR A NEW POLITICAL CYCLE. VICENTE 3 PALACIO CHAPTER I. FROM AMERICA FIRST TO DEMOCRACY FIRST: IMPLICATIONS AT 9 HOME AND ABROAD. VICENTE PALACIO CHAPTER II. TRUMPISM BEYOND TRUMP: THE FUTURE OF THE RADICAL RIGHT 23 DURING THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION. JORGE TAMAMES CHAPTER III. A CASE FOR DEMOCRACY: SOCIAL MEDIA, FAKE NEWS AND 38 CENSORSHIP. IÑIGO SÁENZ DE UGARTE CHAPTER IV. A NEW OPPORTUNITY FOR THE GENDER AGENDA. CRISTINA 50 MANZANO CHAPTER V. BACK TO PARIS: PROSPECTS FOR A GREEN NEW DEAL AND JUST 66 TRANSITION IN THE US. DIMITRIS STEVIS CHAPTER VI. GREEN DEAL AND JUST TRANSITION: THE NEW BRAND MARK OF 88 THE EUROPEAN UNION. CRISTINA MONGE CHAPTER VII. THE U.S. TECHNOLOGY AGENDA: RECOVERY, 103 TRANSFORMATION, AND RUPTURE TRENDS. IMPLICATIONS ON EUROPEAN DIGITAL SOVEREIGNTY. RAQUEL JORGE RICART CHAPTER VIII. HOW TO DEAL WITH CHINA’S QUEST FOR GLOBAL SUPREMACY. 123 POSSIBILITIES FOR EXPANDED US-EU COOPERATION UNDER THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION. ALEXANDRE MUNS CHAPTER IX. THE REMAKING OF THE MULTILATERAL ORDER AND THE 138 EUROPEAN OPEN STRATEGIC AUTONOMY. MARIO TEL! REFLECTIONS AND PROPOSALS: US AND EUROPE. 155 AUTHORS 164 ANNEX - US TRENDS WORKING GROUP 167 2 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE Introduction. New trends for a new political cycle. Vicente Palacio The United States has entered a new political cycle of significant transformations since Joe Biden’s inauguration as 46th President on 20 January 2021. At home and abroad, the first steps of the new Democrat administration are meeting the expectations of change to stand in contrast to the previous administration of Donald Trump. Across several fields, the new administration is undertaking extremely ambitious initial political and legislative initiatives. Consequently, several trends in American politics and society are being bolstered in a certain direction. This 2021 Report US Trends that Matter for Europe addresses the main transformations within the United States in the early months of the Biden- Harris administration in the transition to a post-pandemic America. It covers a long list of key subjects, be they political (democracy), social, economic, technological/digital, environmental, or multilateral. The Report also places emphasis on the links between these internal transformations and Europe’s own agenda. The analyses in each section of the Report have drawn on the thoughts and ideas to have arisen in numerous meetings and debates among experts over recent months. For each issue covered in the chapters the idea is to identify the most significant new trends that point to changes in the United States primarily, but also in Europe. In relation to these trends, we try to shed some light on whether the changes are circumstantial (that is to say, reversible) or whether instead they are structural (deeper and with consequences in the medium and long term). What follows is a summary of the main trends arising from the Report and the joint reflections of the Working Group: 3 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE An initial and chief trend is the central importance of the reconstruction of democracy in the United States. The United States is evolving from “America First” to “Democracy First”. Preceding this were the four controversial years of President Trump’s tenure, marked by political and social polarisation, national populism, trade protectionism, and a withdrawal from international leadership and multilateralism - ending in the assault on the Capitol on 6 January 2021. America is now taking democracy and human rights seriously again as the backbone of domestic and international political life. Biden’s slogan of “America is back” spans the two spheres of action. However, this commitment to democratic and institutional renewal brings uncertainties and challenges. Domestically, owing to deadlocks in the Senate and filibusterism that obstruct the passing of new laws and the persistence of a certain polarisation that stands in the way of bipartisanism. In particular, the national populist, “Trumpist” tendencies in the United States and Europe will remain strong for a time that it is still impossible to predict. And abroad they are problematic both because of US democracy’s state of relative weakness – an impediment to resuming “leadership of the free world” – and because of the risks involved for global governance of a confrontation with the authoritarian governments of China or Russia. Second, a shift towards a new paradigm of strong “social” content, one that contains a commitment to the middle classes in post-pandemic America, can be detected. This is linked to the idea of the need for major public investment and “big government” to overcome the damage caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. Several types of action point in this direction. One example is the successful management of the pandemic itself: 200 million people vaccinated in the first 100 days of Biden’s term of office, a drop in the mortality rate from 4,000 a day to less than 100; or the support for a temporary suspension of vaccine patents. Others are the laws sent to Congress to secure the economic and social recovery, amounting to around $6 trillion: the American Rescue Plan, the Infrastructure Plan, the American Jobs Plan, and the American Families Plan. Depending on the success of these programmes, this new paradigm 4 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE could take root not only among the Democrats, but also among some Republican sectors. In addition, the democratic/social nature of the programmes aspires to “heal the wounds” of US society. That may place a new, far-reaching emphasis on attention to the most vulnerable minorities and racial justice. A third trend is the consolidation of a “tax revolution” to underpin an inclusive path out of the crisis. In order to fund the economic and social programmes the federal government - led by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen - is proposing an initial tax increase on the big US corporations (from 21% to 28%); a global minimum tax on global corporate profits of 15% (the initial proposal was 21%) that includes the all-powerful GAFAM tech giants; or a tax on high incomes (the richest 1% of the United States). Biden’s “tax revolution” has direct implications for the global tax system, is in line with the proposals of international bodies such as the OECD or the IMF, and will have major repercussions in Europe, helping to unblock similar initiatives. A fourth trend is that the United States is taking a feminist turn, with a growing prominence of women in political life. Several elements attest to the fact that in terms of both number and real influence feminist tendencies are continuing to break through and effect profound changes. The current legislative term provides record figures as far as the presence of women is concerned. That is the case of the President’s Cabinet, or the Congress formed in 2021 (where the number of representatives of racial and ethnic minorities is also on the increase), or of the legislative chambers of the different states of the country and of senior positions. In addition to Kamala Harris as Vice President, there is the so-called “squad” led by the Democrat Ocasio Cortez in Congress, where women such as Rashida Tlaib, along with many others, stand out. If the trend continues, the feminist push in political life promoted from among the Democrat ranks could spread to the Republican camp. For Europe, these changes provide an opportunity to cooperate with the United States on gender policies in a framework of 5 2021 REPORT US TRENDS THAT MATTER FOR EUROPE global action, for example in the framework of the United Nations 2030 Agenda. A fifth trend is that the United States is making a radical “green” shift compared to the previous period. The Biden administration is committed to the creation of new green jobs, caring for the environment, and a socially just energy transition. Actions that illustrate this shift are, for example, the return to the Paris Agreement, the cancelation of the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, or the appointment of John Kerry as Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. This major green shift will be coordinated primarily through the American Jobs Plan, which includes massive investment in green infrastructure, in renewables, or electric vehicles. From a geopolitical point of view, the United States is recovering part of the global leadership of this area, aligning to a large extent with the European Union and regaining ground lost to China. At the international Summit on Climate called by Biden in April 2021, the United States pledged to halve its emission by 2030 and to secure net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This step could have major implications for the European Union and its New Green Deal in terms of a positive “race to the top” with the United States.
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