The Panarchy of Peace
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The Panarchy of Peace A thesis presented to the faculty of the Center for International Studies of Ohio University In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Arts Mark R. Mason March 2008 2 This thesis titled THE PANARCHY OF PEACE by MARK R. MASON has been approved for the Center for International Studies by Elizabeth F. Collins Associate Professor of Classics and World Religions Jieli Li Director, International Development Studies Drew McDaniel Interim Director, Center for International Studies 3 ABSTRACT MASON, MARK R., M.A., March 2008, International Development Studies The Panarchy of Peace (159 pp.) Director of Thesis: Elizabeth F. Collins Panarchy theory has been utilized to first conceptualize the entrenched conflict that lasted for nearly 30 years between Aceh and Indonesia and second, the development of peace prior to and shortly following the tsunami of 2004. The purpose of this paper is to show how panarchy or complex adaptive systems theory can be used to explain the previous state of the Aceh-Indonesia conflict as a sustained maladaptive system and how it was eventually changed into an adaptive system harboring the potential for peaceful sustainability. There are four main questions that this thesis answers. First, how can the Aceh-Indonesia conflict be explained as a rigidity trap? Second, what were the main elements or inputs from cyclical systems below or above the Aceh-Indonesia conflict scale that led to the collapse of the rigidity trap and the generation of a healthy or complex adaptive system? Third, what role, if any, did the tsunami of December 2004 play in achieving the peace of the new complex adaptive system and fourth, what elements or inputs into the new healthy system may or may not lead to the systems peaceful sustainability? The conflict and the peace achieved between the two former antagonists appears to be an example of a maladapted cyclical socio-economic and political rigidity trap that was acted upon by new inputs from cyclical scales above the Aceh-Indonesia conflict scale. It is thought that this is the first time panarchy theory has been applied to an aspect of conflict transformation modeling. It is hoped that this initial 4 attempt will encourage others to test panarchy theory; maladaptive and adaptive system models, in the field of conflict transformation. Approved: _____________________________________________________________ Elizabeth F. Collins Associate Professor of Classics & World Religions 5 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Much appreciation is due to the following people and organizations for their assistance, direction and hospitality: to Dr. Jieli Li, Director of the International Development Studies program at Ohio University, whose decision to partially fund my attendance to the Alliance for Conflict Transformation summer institute at the University of Indonesia enabled my interest in the Aceh-Indonesia conflict to develop past books; to Dr. Dauda Abubakar for reigniting my interest in global governance and political conflict issues; to Dr. Bernard for introducing panarchy theory and exercising the kindest blend of constructive advice it has been my pleasure to experience in academia; to Dr. Collins for her inspiration, depth of knowledge on Indonesia and firm task mastering I required to make regular progress; to Dr. Imam and Gitayna Prasodjo for a wealth of contacts, a place to call home in Jakarta and Banda, and much laughter; to all the intensely engaging individuals of Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, the Tentara Nasional Indonesia, the Government Of Indonesia, and practitioners in the international development field in Jakarta and Aceh, from organizations such as International Organization for Migration, United States Agency for International Development, The Asia Foundation and Chemonics who agreed to sit for interviews and to all those who assisted and supported my research, this paper would not have been possible without you. Thank you. While I have endeavored to be accurate with the use of all quotes and meanings from interviews and analysis of material, any mistakes included within the text are mine and not of the participants or thesis advisors. 6 for Kanokwan รักเดียว ใจเดยวี ตลอดไป และในสวรรค 7 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................................3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.............................................................................................................................5 LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................................9 LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................................................10 LIST OF ACRONYMS & INDONESIAN TERMS.................................................................................11 PANARCHY TERMS & SYMBOLS ........................................................................................................13 METHODOLOGY......................................................................................................................................16 PREFACE....................................................................................................................................................18 CHAPTER 1: HISTORICAL ACEH ........................................................................................................25 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................................26 INDIAN OCEAN ORIENTATION, SULTANS AND DIPLOMATIC TREATIES......................................................27 ACEH’S INTERNAL STRUGGLE AND EFFORTS IN ACHIEVING THE INDONESIA REPUBLIC ...........................30 PEACE, SPECIAL PROVINCIAL STATUS, AND ACEHNESE IDENTITY ............................................................33 SEALED-OFF FROM THE WORLD 1990-2004 ..............................................................................................37 REVOLVING PRESIDENTS, DUAL TRACK POLICIES & VYING FOR INFLUENCE OF THE TNI........................39 President Habibie May 1998 – September 1999..................................................................................41 President Wahid October 1999 – July 2001 ........................................................................................43 President Sukarnoputri July 2001 – September 2004..........................................................................47 CONCLUDING REMARKS............................................................................................................................52 CHAPTER 2: PANARCHY .......................................................................................................................54 THE DEVELOPMENT OF PANARCHY THEORY.............................................................................................55 What is Panarchy?...............................................................................................................................56 COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS .................................................................................................................60 PHASES OF A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM ..............................................................................................63 PROPERTIES OF A COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM .......................................................................................68 MALADAPTIVE SYSTEMS...........................................................................................................................69 CONCLUDING REMARKS............................................................................................................................74 CHAPTER 3: ACEH’S RIGIDITY TRAP ...............................................................................................76 THE ACEH-INDONESIA CONFLICT AS A RIGIDITY TRAP.............................................................................77 GERAKAN ACEH MERDEKA RECONSTITUTED ...........................................................................................81 POLITICAL SYSTEM DESTABILIZATION......................................................................................................86 CONCLUDING REMARKS............................................................................................................................89 CHAPTER 4: THE COLLAPSE OF THE ACEH-INDONESIA RIGIDITY TRAP ...........................92 THE REVOLUTIONARY GENERAL...............................................................................................................94 PLATE TECTONICS & GERAKAN ACEH MERDEKA...................................................................................102 CONCLUDING REMARKS..........................................................................................................................110 CHAPTER 5: THE PANARCHY OF PEACE.......................................................................................111 BACK LOOP DYNAMICS & FORMAL REORGANIZATION...........................................................................113 TRANSITION FROM BACK LOOP TO FRONT LOOP (Α) TO (R) ....................................................................115 8 THE INTERNATIONALS.............................................................................................................................117