Black Creek Crayfish (Procambarus pictus) Species Status Assessment Version 1.0 Photo by Christopher Anderson July 2020 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service South Atlantic, Gulf & Mississippi Basin Regions Atlanta, GA ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This document was prepared by Kathryn N. Smith-Hicks (Texas A&M Natural Resources Institute), Heath Rauschenberger (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [Service]), Lourdes Mena (Service), David Cook (Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission [FWC]), and Erin Rivenbark (Service). Other species expertise, guidance, and document reviews were provided by Paul Moler (FWC), Gary Warren (FWC), Lindsey Reisinger (University of Florida), Katherine Lawlor (FWC), Kristi Lee (FWC), and Kasey Fralick (FWC). Additionally, peer reviewers including Troy Keller and Chester R. Figiel, Jr. provided valuable input into the analysis and reviews of a draft of this document. We appreciate their input and comments, which resulted in a more robust status assessment and final report. Suggested reference: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2020. Species status assessment report for Procambarus pictus (Black Creek crayfish), Version 1.0. July 2020. Atlanta, Georgia. ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Black Creek crayfish (Procambarus pictus) are small to medium sized crayfish endemic to four northeastern Florida counties (Clay, Duval, Putnam, and St. Johns) in the Lower St. Johns River Basin. Black Creek crayfish rely on cool, flowing, sand-bottomed, and tannic-stained streams that are highly oxygenated. Locations that fulfill the species’ habitat requirements are typically headwater sections of streams that maintain a constant flow; however, they are found in small and large tributary streams. Within these streams, Black Creek crayfish require aquatic vegetation and debris for shelter with alternation of shaded and open canopy cover where they eat aquatic plants, dead plant and animal material, and detritus. Threats believed to influence Black Creek crayfish vary by location, but may include human development, mining, silviculture, climate change, and competition for space and resources with the conspecific, pioneering white tubercled crayfish. Until more research is conducted, the degree of impact by white tubercled crayfish is still unknown. Early research indicates white tubercled crayfish have the potential to decrease localized occupancy and abundance of Black Creek crayfish at certain sites. Using available occurrence data, we delineated 19 populations using HUC 12 watersheds, 16 on the west side of the St. Johns River and 3 on the east side. For this Species Status Assessment (SSA), we made some assumptions about specific Black Creek crayfish needs and responses to stressors based on currently available knowledge and input from species experts, but further study is needed to test these assumptions. We attempted to be clear and explicit in the SSA about where these assumptions were made and why. We assessed current resiliency of populations based on three factors: likely habitat and level of protection, habitat quality, and threat of impact from white tubercled crayfish. Populations were assigned a baseline resiliency score associated with the likely habitat predicted within the HUC 12 watershed based on a habitat suitability model and the amount of likely habitat currently under some level of protection and management. The baseline scores could then be lowered or raised based on the habitat quality within the HUC 12 watershed. We determined habitat quality from combining overall watershed water quality and level of urban, agricultural, and silviculture use within the riparian areas surrounding likely habitat. We then calculated two resiliency scores based on potential impact from white tubercled crayfish and without any impacts. Based on this resiliency classification strategy and predicted white tubercled crayfish impact, there are currently 2 very highly resilient populations, 7 highly resilient populations, 6 moderately resilient iii populations, and 4 populations with low resiliency. If white tubercled crayfish impacts are not considered, there are currently 6 very highly resilient populations, 3 highly resilient populations, 7 moderately resilient populations, and 3 populations with low resiliency. Given the limited distribution of the Black Creek crayfish, the species is very susceptible to catastrophic events because the events would not need to be very large or geographically widespread to affect the entire known population. We evaluated representation based on geographical separation of populations on east and west side of the St. Johns River; the 3 populations on the east side of the St. Johns River have moderate (1) and low (2) resiliency and so redundancy is much higher on the west side of the St. Johns River compared to the east side. We assessed the future conditions of Black Creek crayfish 30 and 50 years into the future under 6 scenarios: 1. 2050 No WTC Impact: Current development + No impact from white tubercled crayfish 2. 2050 WTC Impact: Current development + Impact from white tubercled crayfish 3. 2070 Trend No WTC Impact: Florida 2070 Trend + No impact from white tubercled crayfish 4. 2070 Trend WTC Impact: Florida 2070 Trend + Impact from white tubercled crayfish 5. 2070 Alternative No WTC Impact: Florida 2070 Alternative + No impact from white tubercled crayfish 6. 2070 Alternative WTC Impact: 2070 Alternative + Impact from white tubercled crayfish These scenarios explored how varying levels of future conservation effort might interact with current resiliency and risk from sea level rise (SLR), urbanization, and white tubercled crayfish. Impact from sea level rise was incorporated to the amount of likely habitat in 2050 and 2070 to give new baseline resiliency scores. We then analyzed forecasts of future development within each population watershed and within 100 m of likely habitat (riparian). This was done using geospatial data provided by the Florida 2070 mapping project, which predicts both Trend and Alternative development patterns. Trend represents the land use pattern most likely to occur if 2070 population projections are met and counties continue to develop at densities seen in 2010 and Alternative represents a land use pattern that still accommodates the 2070 projected population but with a more compact pattern of development and increased protected lands. iv Resiliency scores for each scenarios then incorporated predicted impact and no impact from white tubercled crayfish. Current Current 2050 2070 2070 2070 2050 2070 Resiliency Resiliency Current Trend Trend Alternate Current Alternate Resiliency - With - Without & No & No & & No & WTC & WTC WTC WTC WTC WTC WTC WTC Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Very High 2 6 6 0 2 0 4 0 High 7 3 3 6 2 0 4 0 Moderate 6 7 6 4 3 2 1 4 Low 4 3 1 5 1 2 1 4 Total Populations 19 19 16 15 8 4 10 8 Three of the 19 Black Creek crayfish populations (16%) may be extirpated under all future scenarios. Six more populations (32%; 47% total) may be extirpated by 2070. Scenarios that include development without added protections of Black Creek crayfish habitat and other areas important to maintaining good water quality increase the likelihood of extirpation of two additional populations. It is possible that resiliency may be worse than predicted if white tubercled crayfish lead to eventual extirpation of Black Creek crayfish in watersheds occupied by both species in the future. More data are needed to determine the extent and exact time scale of impacts. Redundancy and representation are expected to decrease under all scenarios. v 2070 Current Current 2050 2050 2070 2070 2070 Alternate Resiliency - Resiliency - Current & Current Trend & Trend & Alternate Population & No With WTC Without WTC No WTC & WTC No WTC WTC & WTC WTC Impact Imapct Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Impact Likely Ates Creek High Very High Very High High Moderate High Low Extirpated Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Black Creek - St. Johns River Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Likely Likely Likely Clarkes Creek Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Likely Likely Likely Likely Durbin Creek* Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Governors Creek Moderate Moderate Low Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Likely Greens Creek High Very High Very High High Moderate Very High Moderate Extirpated Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Julington Creek* Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated vi Kingsley Lake High Very High Very High High High Low Very High Moderate Likely Likely Likely Likely Lake Geneva Moderate Moderate High Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Lower Etonia Creek High High High Moderate High Low High Low Likely Likely Likely Likely Lower North Fork-Black Creek Low Moderate Moderate Low Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Likely Likely Likely Likely Lower South Fork-Black Creek High High High Moderate Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Likely Likely Likely Likely Peters Creek Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Very Simms Creek Very High Very High Very High High Moderate Very High Moderate High Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Likely Trout Creek-St. Johns River* Low Low Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Extirpated Likely Likely Upper Etonia Creek Moderate Moderate