Inland Flooding from Tropical Cyclones

INLAND FLOODING FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES

Climatology Hydrometeorology Keeping Informed Thursday May 27

John Feldt Hydrologist-in-Charge Southeast River Forecast Center CLIMATOLOGY

Fatalities Related to Inland Flooding Locations Most Prone to Inland Flooding Florida Flood Climatology

30 Locations ID Station Name DLAF1 St John River near Deland MDLF1 Black Creek near Middleburg BDFD1 Suwannee River at Branford BLXF1 Ochlocknee River near Bloxham ELLF1 Anclote River near Elfers FWHF1 Sante Fe River at Fort White HVNF1 Ochlocknee River near Havana MACF1 St Marys River at Macclenney NEPF1 St Marks River near Newport PINF1 Withlacoochee River near Pinetta WCXF1 Suwannee River near Wilcox WSPF1 Suwannee River at White Springs ARCF1 Peace River near Arcadia ARHF1 Horse Creek near Arcadia BARF1 Peace River near Bartow CRMF1 Withlacoochee River near Croom HLDF1 Withlacoochee River near Holder LITF1 Alafia River near Lithia MKCF1 Myakka River at Myakka River State Park MKHF1 Manatee River at Myakka Head TRBF1 Withlacoochee River near Trilby WIMF1 Little Manatee River near Wimauma WRGF1 Cypress Creek at Worthington Gardens ZFSF1 Peace River at Zolfo Springs ZPHF1 Hillsborough River at Zephyrhills PLMF1 Fisheating Creek near Palmdale BLOF1 Apalachicola River near Blountstown BAKF1 Blackwater River at Baker CARF1 Choctawhatchee River at Caryville MLGF1 Yellow River at Milligan MLNF1 Big Coldwater Creek at Milton Flood Events (1975-2006) 5 – 12 13 - 20 21 - 47 48 - 87 88 - 152 Flood Events (1975-2006) 5 – 12 13 - 20 21 - 47 48 - 87 88 - 152 Flood Events (1975-2006)

5 – 12 13 - 20 21 - 47 48 - 87 88 - 152 Flood Events (1975-2006)

0 – 2 3 - 7 8 - 13 14 - 18 19 - 37 Flood Events (1975-2006) 0 – 2 3 - 7 8 - 13 14 - 18 19 - 37 Flood Events (1975-2006) 0 – 2 3 - 7 8 - 13 14 - 18 19 - 37

Dec-Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan-Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 River Floods - State of Florida Feb 8 Feb-Mar 9 Mar 10 (1975-2006) Mar 11 Mar 12 80 Mar 13 Mar-Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 70 Apr 17 Apr-May 18 Flood Events May 19 May 20 60 May 21 May-June 22 Significant Flood June 23 June 24 50 Events June 25 June-July 26 July 27 July 28 40 July 29 July 30 July-Aug 31 Aug 32 30 Aug 33 Aug 34 Aug-Sep 35 Sep 36 20 Sep 37 Sep 38 Sep-Oct 39 Oct 40 10 Oct 41 Oct 42 Oct-Nov 43 Nov 44 0 Nov 45 Nov 46 Nov-Dec 47 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Dec 48 Dec 49 Dec 50 Week of the Year Dec 51 Dec-Jan 52 Dec-Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan-Feb 5 Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb-Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar-Apr 14 Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr-May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 May-June 22 June 23 June 24 June 25 River Floods - State of Florida June-July 26 (1975-2006) July 27 July 28 80 July 29 July 30 July-Aug 31 70 Aug 32 Flood Events Aug 33 60 Aug 34 Aug-Sep 35 Significant Flood Sep 36 50 Events Sep 37 Sep 38 Sep-Oct 39 40 Oct 40 Oct 41 Oct 42 30 Oct-Nov 43 Nov 44 20 Nov 45 Nov 46 Nov-Dec 47 10 Dec 48 Dec 49 Dec 50 0 Dec 51 Dec-Jan 52 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Week of the Year

Dec-Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan-Feb 5 River Floods - Central and Eastern Florida Panhandle Feb 6 Feb 7 (1975-2006) Feb 8 Feb-Mar 9 40 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 35 Mar-Apr 14 Flood Events Apr 15 Apr 16 Significant Flood Events Apr 17 Apr-May 18 30 May 19 May 20 May 21 May-June 22 25 June 23 June 24 June 25 June-July 26 20 July 27 July 28 July 29 July 30 15 July-Aug 31 Aug 32 Aug 33 Aug 34 10 Aug-Sep 35 Sep 36 Sep 37 Sep 38 5 Sep-Oct 39 Oct 40 Oct 41 Oct 42 0 Oct-Nov 43 Nov 44 Nov 45 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Nov 46 Nov-Dec 47 Dec 48 Week of the Year Dec 49 Dec 50 Dec 51 Dec-Jan 52 Dec-Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan-Feb 5 River Floods - Western Florida Panhandle Feb 6 Feb 7 Feb 8 (1975-2006) Feb-Mar 9 Mar 10 18 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar-Apr 14 16 Apr 15 Flood Events Apr 16 Apr 17 Significant Flood Events Apr-May 18 14 May 19 May 20 May 21 May-June 22 12 June 23 June 24 June 25 June-July 26 10 July 27 July 28 July 29 July 30 8 July-Aug 31 Aug 32 Aug 33 Aug 34 6 Aug-Sep 35 Sep 36 Sep 37 4 Sep 38 Sep-Oct 39 Oct 40 Oct 41 2 Oct 42 Oct-Nov 43 Nov 44 Nov 45 0 Nov 46 Nov-Dec 47 Dec 48 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Dec 49 Dec 50 Dec 51 Week of the Year Dec-Jan 52 Dec-Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan-Feb 5 Feb 6 River Floods - Central Florida Feb 7 Feb 8 Feb-Mar 9 (1975-2006) Mar 10 60 Mar 11 Mar 12 Flood Events Mar 13 Mar-Apr 14 Significant Flood Events Apr 15 Apr 16 50 Apr 17 Apr-May 18 May 19 May 20 May 21 May-June 22 40 June 23 June 24 June 25 June-July 26 July 27 30 July 28 July 29 July 30 July-Aug 31 Aug 32 Aug 33 20 Aug 34 Aug-Sep 35 Sep 36 Sep 37 Sep 38 10 Sep-Oct 39 Oct 40 Oct 41 Oct 42 Oct-Nov 43 Nov 44 0 Nov 45 Nov 46 Nov-Dec 47 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 Dec 48 Dec 49 Dec 50 Week of the Year Dec 51 Dec-Jan 52 Florida Significant River Floods (1975-2006) Florida Significant River Floods (1975-2006) during the Tropical Season (June through Nov) Florida Significant River Flood Events from 1975 to 2006

35 Synoptic Tropical 30

0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

HYDROMETEOROLOGY

Heavy Rainfall in Tropical Cyclones Measuring Rainfall Hydrology Precipitation Efficiency

 Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction  Instability and Lift L  Tropical Environment Favorable for Raindrop Formation

Moist, Very Efficient Air Tropical Cyclones form in an environment primed for precipitation and they transport that environment to landmasses Size and Strength Strength =? Rainfall Size =? Rainfall Storm size and strength are not reliable indicators of the heavy rainfall potential in your area Storm Speed

Allison (2001) Katrina (2005) Slower Storm Speed Faster

Extreme Rainfall Less Extreme

Storm speed may impact heavy rainfall potential but there are many other potential factors to consider.

? Non-Cyclone Features ? Persistent Rain Bands ? Erratic? Cyclone Motion? ? Terrain? Impacts Erratic Cyclone Motion

Tropical Storm Allison June 85-9,6, 2001 June 4-17, 2001

Storm-Total Rainfall Slow; Erratic Motion Led to Record Rainfall

Courtesy: HPC Courtesy: NWSWFO HGX Persistent Rain Bands

Hurricane Dennis July 7-18, 2005 Storm-Total Rainfall

Atlanta Courtesy: HPC

Heaviest rainfall far July 10-11; 17 hours from center STREAM GAUGES RAINFALL TO RUNOFF MODELING River Forecasts – How are they created?

Upstream Upstream Flow River Gage

Observed Future Precipitation Precipitation

Local Basin Soil Model Unit Hydrograph Forecast Rainfall to Runoff Runoff to Flow River Gage

Total Flow Basin Local Flow (cfs)

Rating Curve Forecaster Forecast Flow to Stage Modification To Public

KEEPING INFORMED

NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Organization Products and Services

National Precipitation Analysis Page www.hpc.noaa.gov

www.weather.gov Water

Minor Flood

Minimal or no property damage, but possibly some public threat or inconvenience Moderate Flood

Some inundation of structures and roads near streams. Some evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations are necessary. Major Flood

Extensive inundation of structures and roads. Significant evacuations of people and/or transfer of property to higher elevations.

SERFC DECISION SUPPORT STRATEGY

Weeks Days Hours READY SET GO

Water Resources Outlook Tropical Hydrologic Vulnerability 24-Hour Ops Assessment Enhanced Staffing Hydrologic Entry Region Analysis GoTo Webinars Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment SERFC ALERT! GoTo Webinars EMA – Specific Briefings Contingency Fcsts Detail On-Site Support SERFC ALERT! Partner-Specific Partner-Specific Briefings Briefings and Support And Support MMEFS

MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (MMEFS) Questions