Ovtmepeffsystems Are Steel, Electric Power, Manufacturing (Particularly the Automobile Industry) and Construction
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OWTftf /<?. The Fifth Generation in Japan and Europe In Japan we have developed what might be called "expert system fever." In the world of Japanese industry/there are well over a expert systems hundred that are &y~K. either already being put to practical use o^soon tcf^d. Industries engaged most actively in the research and development oVtMepeffsystems are steel, electric power, manufacturing (particularly the automobile industry) and construction. These are also the industries with the most expert systems in operation...Expert systems now under development are advanced enough for use in strategically important applications like design and planning. From Japan Computer Quarterly (No. 69. 1987), a publication of the government-sponsored Japan Information Processing Development Center (JIPDEC) Five years after their dramatic announcment of a national research project in Artificial Intelligence, the Japanese were experiencing what they call "AI boom." Japanese top management, energized by media attention to expert systems and trade shows held by both Japan's leading business newspaper and various business associations, were pressing their middle management to move into the new technology. Within the major industrial banking, and trade groups — Mitsui, Mitsubishi. Sanwa, and others - the cooperative mechanisms already in place for a learning new technology had organized study groups, foreign travel groups, lectures, and courses to train company people to lead expert system development teams. In Britain, pioneer AI and entrepreneur Donald Michie, founder of the a leading British expert system software company, told an old friend sadly but optimistically. 'The British market (for expert systems software) has been asleep but we hope it will wake up in 1987 and 1988." The British government said it was going to end funding for the British national project, Alvey, which supported expert systems work under the title Intelligent Knowledge Based Systems. Efforts were being made to convince the government to extend it In the European Economic Community, funding for the community project, ESPRIT, which supports some work on expert systems, was renewed. Among the companies, isolated examples of small systems could be found at work, but one searched in vain for applications with significant economic gain. Was Europe simply years behind, or was the activity cloaked by proprietary secrecy? It was hard to tell. Inscrutability is something we usually attribute to the East not the West Japan: the Fifth Generation Project and the expert systems fever Artificial Intelligence is a science with a thirty year history. During its first twenty five years, Jtt 2 it Urn a quiet life as the exotic subspecialty of computer science studying intelligence and performing experiments on how to make computers intelligent. For most of this time, it was supported generously by the US Defense Department and, in a much smaller and more focused way, by the Japanese government in the PIPS (Pattern Information Processing System) national project of the 19705. In 1981, the quiet obscurity of AI was transformed into highly visible frenzy by the dramatic announcementby Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry of a program of advanced research and development in AI, a project they named Fifth Generation Computer Systems (FGCS). Coming on the heels of MITI's highly successful efforts to promote Japanese prowess in consumer electronics and computer chips, the announcement set off alarm bells in capitals and companies of the West The story of the founding of the project was told in the book The Fifth Generation: Artificial Intelligence and Japan's Computer Challenge to the World, and in a remarkable retrospective of the key players y and their motives published in Japanese only, Japanese Dream. Five years have passed, the project is nowjffifaja^and, it is interesting to take a look at Fifth Generation progress and i problems. _vs_fe^P." _- The Fifth Generation Project was set up to develop computer hardware and software for systems they called generically Knowledge Information Processing Systems (KIPS), the same computer development that we have called knowledge processing. The KIPS* work was keyed to a specific methodology called logic programming, originally developed in Europe. The FGCS concept was breathtaking in scope, in the performance promised, and in the vision of a society transformed by KIPS. The FGCS plan promised extremely high speed problem solving, parallel computers for achieving this, and interaction with KIPS in natural (human) language, speech, and pictures. The project period was nominally 10 years (though realistically the planners admitted that more might be needed), broken into phases of three, four, and three years. A central research institute, the Institute for New Generation Computer Technology (ICOT) was established in Tokyo under the direction of an elite scientific managementteam from MITI's own laboratory, the Electrotechnical Laboratory. The team was headed by a brilliant, unorthrodox, and charismatic scientist, Kazuhiro Fuchi. To the laboratory came forty young engineers and scientists (most in their twenties) from the eight Japanese computer firms cooperating with MITI in the project The firms were Fujitsu, Hitachi, NEC, Mitsubishi, Toshiba. Matsushita, Oki, and Sharp. Each established an internal counterpart to ICOT (usually called a Fifth Generation laboratory or something similar), consisting of a "cooperating" part and a proprietary part The cooperating part contracts with ICOT for MITI funds in support of ICOT-planned or ICOT-directed work <2rf 3 and also work thought to be of importance to the community effort The proprietary part is funded by each company for its own proprietary goals. So a company's participation is threefold. It lends people to ICOT. It connects to its people and the rest of ICOT work through the cooperating part of its lab, which in turn passes knowledge to company colleagues in the proprietary part of the lab. Under the ICOT staffing plan, the scientists and engineers rotate back to their respective companies the at end of each phase. This accords not only with the demands of the companies to have prized their young people back, working within the corporate family, and with the technology transfer imperative. It also implements what some believe is the most important goal of the FGCS project~the training of a large number of highly qualified people for future work in AI and knowledge processing in Japanese companies. Mr. Konishi, one of the young and bold planners MITI who conceived the Fifth Generation Project (now a planner for NTT), in a speech he gave a for conference in Tokyo in December, 1986, put this training goal at the top a of list of FGCS goals initally set by MITI planners. We will return to this later. Phase One began immediately with a judicious pruning of the grand vision. Work on speech picture and understanding was mostly dropped in favor of industrial research labs. Language understanding research was maintained but shared with Kyoto University. The focus was on logic programming. An early model of logic processing hardware was designed by ICOT and manufactured by Mitsubishi, for internal use and later as a commercial product sold internationally. The machine is a minicomputer workstation called PSI (Personal Sequential Inference machine). A more recent version, 3-5 times faster, is called PSI-2. A high-speed version of PSI, called CHI, was built by NEC for ICOT. ICOT also reworked and extended the logic programming language PROLOG into a powerful programming tool, in which they were able to write the operating software of their machines. This effort, done under contract by Mitsubishi, resulted in the largest prolog program by far ever written, and established the Japanese as heavyweight champions of the prolog world. ICOT designed, and Hitachi built, a machine for knowledge bases (technically speaking, a relational data base machine) but the machine was not efficient and practical, so the idea was dropped in Phase Two. The public bridge relations between Phases One and Two was a large conference held in Tokyo in November 1984 to exhibit the results of the first two and a half years and build enthusiasm and consensus for Phase Two. Conference attendance was oversubscribed. ICOT people were surprised by how many people from a broad spectrum of Japanese industry were in attendance. A disappointment was the small number of university people who attended. The biggest disappointment was felt by some American and European attendees who came expecting to see the fruits of a revolution and saw instead the considerable achievements of a fast catch-up exercise. %sr 4 Phase One came to an end in March, 1985. Almost everyone except Fuchi and his cadre of group managers rotated back to the member companies, and Fuchi selected a new batch of scientists and engineers. To a Western research manager, what they did was incomprehensible. On a single day, a highly trained team of (by then) 48 technical people whose collective skill was ICOT's own knowledge base, and whose espirit de corps was built to a high level, evaporated and was replaced by new initiates. If they could survive this at all, it would mean slow-going for the first year of Phase Two. Two, Phase according to plan, was scheduled to be the period of most innovation and creativity (for these too were FGCS goals), the period for intense focus on parallel computers. Parallelism for high-speed economical computation is a world-wide goal of the computer industry, but for ICOT it meant parallel logic processing, or PIM (for Parallel Inference Machine). ICOT says it regards logic programming as "the bridge between knowledge processing and parallel machines." The initial PIM is a cluster of PSI machines whose cluster architecture is not much different from that of DEC, Encore, Alliant, Sequent, and other Western companies. Later PIM machines will consist of clusters of the original clusters (also under development in the US), and still later models will substitute PSI-2 machines for PSI.