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Evaluating the Risk of Non-Native Aquatic Species Range

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Evaluating the Risk of Non-Native Aquatic Species Range EVALUATING THE RISK OF NON-NATIVE AQUATIC SPECIES RANGE EXPANSIONS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE IN PENNSYLVANIA By Sara Nicole Grisé A Thesis Submitted to the Department of Biology In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Sciences SHIPPENSBURG UNIVERSITY Shippensburg, Pennsylvania December, 2011 SHIPPENSBURG UNIVERSITY Shippensburg, Pennsylvania This thesis submitted by Sara N. Grisé has been approved as meeting the research requirements for the Masters of Science Degree. Date Theo Light Chairperson of Thesis Committee Associate Professor of Biology Date Todd Hurd Associate Professor of Biology Date Timothy Hawkins Associate Professor of Geography/ Earth Science ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A special thanks to those on my Shippensburg thesis committee: Dr. Tim Hawkins and Dr. Todd Hurd for all your help and guidance throughout this process, and especially to my thesis advisor Dr. Theo Light for all her time, patience, mentorship, and accepting my phone calls on weekends and at all hours to help me complete this project. Also a special thanks to Bob Light, Eric Obert, and Sarah Whitney from Pennsylvania Sea Grant for being so supportive and understanding and allowing me the work flexibility I needed to complete this project. Thank you also to Dr. Joshua Brown at the National Sea Grant Office and Carolyn Foley at Illinois-Indiana Sea Grant for taking the time to proof-read and provide comments; and to Karla Kaczmarek for using her GIS skills to help with developing maps. iii Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... vii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... viii INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 Climate Change ............................................................................................................................ 1 General Circulation models and Downscaled Climate Data ........................................................ 3 Aquatic Invasive Species and Climate Change ............................................................................ 4 Risk Assessment and Climate-matching .................................................................................... 10 Determine Potentially Risky Species ......................................................................................... 15 Estimate Pennsylvania’s Future Climate ................................................................................... 16 Climate Match ............................................................................................................................ 19 Analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 21 Fish and Invertebrate Invasiveness Scoring Kits ....................................................................... 22 Case Studies ............................................................................................................................... 23 RESULTS ..........................................................................................................................25 Potentially Risky Species ........................................................................................................... 25 Pennsylvania’s Future Climate .................................................................................................. 25 Analysis of CLIMATCH Results ................................................................................................ 25 Fish and Invertebrate Invasiveness Scoring Kits ....................................................................... 28 Case Studies ............................................................................................................................... 29 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................................30 Pennsylvania’s future climate suitability ................................................................................... 30 High Risk Species ...................................................................................................................... 32 Plants ...................................................................................................................................... 33 Invertebrates ........................................................................................................................... 33 Fish ......................................................................................................................................... 34 Limitations ................................................................................................................................. 35 Follow-up steps .......................................................................................................................... 37 LITERATURE CITED ......................................................................................................41 TABLES ............................................................................................................................50 FIGURES ...........................................................................................................................54 APPENDIX I .....................................................................................................................66 APPENDIX II ....................................................................................................................69 APPENDIX IIIa .................................................................................................................78 APPENDIX IIIb .................................................................................................................83 iv APPENDIX IIIc .................................................................................................................90 APPENDIX IV.................................................................................................................103 v LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1: TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS BASED ON DOWNSCALED CLIMATE DATA………………………………………………………………………....50 TABLE 2: PENNSYLVANIA “MIMIC STATES” IDENTIFIED FOR THE A2 EMISSION SCENARIO…………………………………………….………...50 TABLE 3: PENNSYLVANIA “MIMIC STATES” IDENTIFIED FOR THE B1 EMISSION SCENARIO………………………………………………………50 TABLE 4: FINAL LIST OF SPECIES USED IN THE ANALYSIS AFTER THE RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR………………………………………...51 TABLE 5: SPECIES OF GREATEST CONCERN WITH CLIMATE SUITABILITY PERCENTAGES……………………………………………………………...52 TABLE 6: HIGH RISK FISH AND INVERTEBRATE SPECIES AND THEIR FISK AND FI-ISK SCORES ………………….…………….…....………...………53 vi LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1: SOURCE AREA .......................................................................................... 54 FIGURE 2: CLIMATE PROJECTION MODEL AND RUN REQUEST ..................... 54 FIGURE 3: CLIMATE MATCH SETTINGS DIALOGUE BOX .................................. 55 FIGURE 4: EXAMPLE OF A TARGET OUTPUT MAP FOR MOZAMBIQUE TILAPIA ...................................................................................................... 55 FIGURE 5: EXAMPLE OF A SOURCE OUTPUT MAP FOR MOZAMBIQUE TILAPIA. ..................................................................................................... 56 FIGURE 6: SPECIES LIKELY TO ESTABLISH BASED ON A 30 PERCENT CLIMATE SUITABILITY THRESHOLD. ................................................ 57 FIGURE 7: PERCENT OF SUITABLE CLIMATE IN PENNSYLVANIA FOR ALL SPECIES IN ALL TAXA ............................................................................ 58 FIGURE 8: AVERAGE PERCENT OF SUITABLE CLIMATE IN PA FOR ALL TAXA .......................................................................................................... 59 FIGURE 9: AVERAGE PERCENT CHANGE IN CLIMATE SUITABILITY FOR ALL TAXA .......................................................................................................... 60 FIGURE 10: INDIVIDUAL PLANT RESPONSES TO CLIMATE WARMING. ........ 61 FIGURE 11: INDIVIDUAL INVERTEBRATE RESPONSES TO CLIMATE WARMING. ............................................................................................... 61 FIGURE 12: INDIVIDUAL FISH RESPONSES TO CLIMATE WARMING. ............ 62 FIGURE 13: COMPARISON OF MEAN CLIMATCH SCORES BETWEEN 2010 AND A2 2099 FOR 30 NON-NATIVE PLANTS. .................................... 63 FIGURE 14: COMPARISON OF MEAN CLIMATCH SCORES BETWEEN 2010 AND A2 2099 FOR 30 NON-NATIVE INVERTEBRATES. .................. 64 FIGURE 15: COMPARISON OF MEAN CLIMATCH SCORES BETWEEN 2010 AND A2 2099 FOR 30 NON-NATIVE FISHES ...................................... 65 vii Evaluating the risk of non-native aquatic species range expansions in a changing climate in Pennsylvania ABSTRACT Climate change and invasive species are two of the most significant aspects of global change, and the two acting synergistically may create an enormous threat to ecosystems. Due to the uncertainty involved with these interactions, predictive management tools should be developed that can offer resource managers strategies for prioritizing non- native species that may benefit from the warming climate.
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