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Centenario Del Canal De Panamá Análisis De Sus Implicancias Geoeconómicas Índice CENTENARIO DEL CANAL DE PANAMÁ ANÁLISIS DE SUS IMPLICANCIAS GEOECONÓMICAS ÍNDICE Prólogo ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 Introducción��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 3 Capítulo I ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 Relevancia del flujo comercial del Canal de Panamá en la última década bajo el concepto de geoeconomía Capítulo II ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15 Implicancias políticas tras el cambio de administración del Canal de Panamá Capítulo III �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 20 Los retos del Canal en el siglo XXI: una visión desde Panamá Capítulo IV ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 31 Ampliación del Canal de Panamá, construcción del Canal de Nicaragua y el dinamismo del comercio internacional Capítulo V ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 35 Impacto estratégico del Canal de Panamá como zona de influencia estadounidense Reflexiones finales ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 47 PRÓLOGO En un reciente seminario auspiciado por la Fundación Konrad Adenauer, tuve la oportunidad de escuchar al Dr. Felipe de la Balze, académico y empresario argentino, quien reflexionó sobre la posible construcción de un Canal por Nicaragua. Su planteamiento llamaba la atención en el sentido de que ante la aparente desaceleración económica china y su reprogramación de inver- siones internas; su capacidad y cuantiosos recursos para desarrollo de infraestructura, técnico y mano de obra, quedarían ociosos y la manera de hacerlos útiles y redituables podría ser invirtiéndolos en América Latina. Un ejemplo de esta estrategia podría ser la construcción del Canal de Nicaragua con equipo y mano de obra proporcionada como inversión por parte de China. Nadie ha dudado de la capacidad de China para sufragar esta obra, como ya ha hecho con otros mega proyectos en el propio terreno. Adicionalmente, cabe destacar que China mantiene un flujo de carga en tránsito por el Canal de Panamá de aproximadamente un 17 % del total entre todos los países que lo ocupan. En visita iniciada el 18 de mayo de 2015 a Sur América, el Primer Ministro chino Li Kegiang, que viajó 8 días por Brasil, Colombia, Perú y Chile y firmó un acuerdo para el estudio de factibilidad del Ferrocarril Brasil – Perú de hasta 103 mil millones de dólares de inversión. En enero de 2015, el Presidente chino Xi Jinping dijo que invertirían 250 mil millones de dólares en América Latina en los próximos 10 años, especial- mente en infraestructuras. China prestó 22 mil millones de dólares el año pasado principalmente a Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina y efectuó un swap monetario en RMB (moneda china abreviada) con Argentina ligado a 15 acuerdos de infraestructura. El nuevo modelo de cooperación 3 × 3 anunciado por China en logística (carreteras, puertos, aeropuertos); electricidad e informática, con participa- ción de empresas chinas, evitando doble tributación; contaría con 3 canales de financiamiento: un fondo especial de 30 mil millones de dólares, créditos de cooperación swap en RMB y monetarios; 500 mil millones en comercio; 250 mil millones en inversión. Todo esto da fe a la posibilidad de China para construir un Canal por Nicaragua, aunque el Gobierno chino no ha dado señales aún de tal compromiso. El estudio que me honran con introducir indica que, la década de 1990 debutó con la caída de la Unión Soviética y el consecuente término de la Guerra Fría, repercutiendo en el debilitamiento de Cuba como caja de resonancia soviética. También indica que China, por su parte, comenzó a focalizar más su atención en nuestra región. Permítanme recordar el aforismo que advierte que en política, los espacios que uno abre prontamente son llenados por otro y en el caso de América Latina, los Estados Unidos también han abierto espacios que han despertado mayor atención en la administración de Barack Obama, en comparación a la de sus predecesores respecto a la región. 1 PRÓLOGO Por otra parte, en lo que respecta al Canal de Nicaragua y el Canal de Panamá, de 80 km de longitud, debo avisar que el primero definitivamente doblará la capacidad de servicio del segundo, si se cumple la planificación del proyecto para mediados del 2016. Creo que la competencia es buena y nos hace ser mejores. El Canal de Nicaragua aún es una quimera, que como dijera en su visita a Chile en abril de 2015 el Sr. Paul Oquist, Ministro, Secretario de Políticas Nacionales y Secretario Ejecutivo de la Comisión del Gran Canal Interoceáni- co de Nicaragua, aún no cuenta con un estudio de factibilidad y otro de medio ambiente, que nos permita considerarlo con seriedad y comprender como este nuevo Canal de 275 km que comprende 186 kms. terrestres, logrará superar, entre otros, el obstáculo que le significa que los lagos de Managua y Nicaragua, unidos por el Río Tipitapa, tienen una profundidad promedio de 9.5 a 13 metros. Este estudio visualiza prospectivamente los posibles escenarios geoeconómi- cos que pudiesen desarrollarse en América Latina y sus consecuencias en el ámbito del intercambio comercial mundial, a propósito de la ampliación del canal de Panamá, y de la eventual culminación del proyecto del canal de Nicaragua. En este contexto, me gustaría destacar el interés del programa Políticas Sociales en América Latina (SOPLA) de la Fundación Konrad Adenauer, por impulsar la investigación y el debate regional en torno a estos interesantes temas económico-estratégicos que tienen, sin duda alguna, repercusiones en la esfera del intercambio comercial entre todas las regiones a nivel global. José Antonio Sossa Rodríguez Embajador Extraordinario y Plenipotenciario de la República de Panamá en Chile 2 INTRODUCCIÓN En primera instancia, queremos agradecer la oportunidad brindada por la Fundación Konrad Adenauer, en el marco de su Programa Regional de Políticas Sociales en América Latina (SOPLA), para desarrollar el presente estudio, que tiene por propósito analizar los impactos e implicancias geoeco- nómicas del Canal de Panamá, al conmemorarse 100 años de su construc- ción. En el contexto de la elaboración de esta publicación, además hemos podido conocer la enorme magnitud de la centenaria obra en el Istmo y compartir experiencias con una serie de profesionales de los más diversos orígenes, en “Se nota una mayor el seminario “Los desafíos de la Seguridad Internacional ante la creciente demanda de rutas integración comercial en Latinoamérica” realizado el 13 de mayo de 2015 en transoceánicas por Panamá, instancia que nos ha servido para orientar significativamente nuestro trabajo y que no podemos obviar en congratular. la expansión económica que Este estudio responde, en principio, a la manifiesta tendencia mundial en torno al incremento del transporte marítimo a nivel global, el cual entre los también incluye años 2003 y 2006 aumentó en un promedio de 2,11 veces más que el PIB nuevos países como mundial (CEPAL, 2009), lo que significó, por ejemplo, que al año 2013, de usuarios.” acuerdo a la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Comercio y Desarro- llo (UNCTAD), el volumen del intercambio marítimo internacional constituye- ra el 80 % del comercio total mundial, convirtiéndose en la columna verte- bral de la economía globalizada. Como consecuencia de lo señalado, la expansión económica por la vía marítima ha significado una mayor demanda por el uso de rutas transoceáni- cas, así como la incorporación de nuevos usuarios, que corresponden principalmente a países en vías de desarrollo de la región de América Latina. Por el Canal de Panamá transita cerca del 3,5 % del comercio mundial, lo que representa más de 300 millones de toneladas netas CPSUAB,1 formando parte de 144 rutas mundiales, permitiendo el intercambio con 160 países y cerca de 1.700 puertos (ACP, 2013). Empero, el mencionado crecimiento en la utilización de las vías marítimas generó una situación problemática asociada a la capacidad operativa del canal, quedando de manifiesto la superación de su capacidad máxima sostenible (ACP, 2006). Esta saturación fue prevista por la Autoridad del Canal de Panamá (ACP) luego del cambio en la administración (1999), siendo el Presidente Martín Torrijos en 2006 quien anunciara las intenciones de su Gobierno y la ACP de duplicar la capacidad del Canal, mediante la construcción de un tercer juego de esclusas, que permitiesen el paso de buques Postpanamax o New Pana- max, impedidos de hacerlo a través de las actuales instalaciones. 1 Denominación que representa al Sistema Universal de Arqueo de Buques del Canal de Panamá. 3 INTRODUCCIÓN En octubre de 2006 fue aprobada la ampliación del Canal de Panamá, que se iniciaría al año siguiente. No obstante, algunos problemas con los términos de la licitación, como veremos más adelante, postergaron los trabajos de construcción y, con ello, la entrega final de las obras, que se espera que se produzca hacia el último trimestre de 2015. Casi simultáneamente, Nicaragua anticipó que haría las gestiones internacio- nales pertinentes para lograr la aspiración de construir una vía interoceánica que permitiera unir el Océano Pacífico con el Mar Caribe, cuestión que en su momento tendió a generar
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